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  • 1. Jungclaus, Johann H.
    et al.
    Bard, Edouard
    Baroni, Mélanie
    Braconnot, Pascale
    Cao, Jian
    Chini, Louise P.
    Egorova, Tania
    Evans, Michael
    González-Rouco, J. Fidel
    Goosse, Hugues
    Hurtt, George C.
    Joos, Fortunat
    Kaplan, Jed O.
    Khodri, Myriam
    Goldewijk, Kees Klein
    Krivova, Natalie
    LeGrande, Allegra N.
    Lorenz, Stephan J.
    Luterbacher, Jürg
    Man, Wenmin
    Maycock, Amanda C.
    Meinshausen, Malte
    Moberg, Anders
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Muscheler, Raimund
    Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph
    Otto-Bliesner, Bette I.
    Phipps, Steven J.
    Pongratz, Julia
    Rozanov, Eugene
    Schmidt, Gavin A.
    Schmidt, Hauke
    Schmutz, Werner
    Schurer, Andrew
    Shapiro, Alexander I.
    Sigl, Michael
    Smerdon, Jason E.
    Solanki, Sami K.
    Timmreck, Claudia
    Toohey, Matthew
    Usoskin, Ilya G.
    Wagner, Sebastian
    Wu, Chi-Ju
    Yeo, Kok Leng
    Zanchettin, Davide
    Zhang, Qiong
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations2017In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 10, no 11, p. 4005-4033Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

  • 2. Sjolte, Jesper
    et al.
    Sturm, Christophe
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Adolphi, Florian
    Vinther, Bo M.
    Werner, Martin
    Lohmann, Gerrit
    Muscheler, Raimund
    Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate inferred from a process-based reconstruction2018In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 14, no 8, p. 1179-1194Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241-1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a highpressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r = 0 : 29, p < 0 : 01) and centennial timescales (r = 0 : 6, p < 0 : 01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

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