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  • 1. Natali, Susan M.
    et al.
    Watts, Jennifer D.
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Potter, Stefano
    Ludwig, Sarah M.
    Selbmann, Anne-Katrin
    Sullivan, Patrick F.
    Abbott, Benjamin W.
    Arndt, Kyle A.
    Birch, Leah
    Björkman, Mats P.
    Bloom, A. Anthony
    Celis, Gerardo
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Christiansen, Casper T.
    Commane, Roisin
    Cooper, Elisabeth J.
    Crill, Patrick
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Czimczik, Claudia
    Davydov, Sergey
    Du, Jinyang
    Egan, Jocelyn E.
    Elberling, Bo
    Euskirchen, Eugenie S.
    Friborg, Thomas
    Genet, Hélène
    Göckede, Mathias
    Goodrich, Jordan P.
    Grogan, Paul
    Helbig, Manuel
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jastrow, Julie D.
    Kalhori, Aram A. M.
    Kim, Yongwon
    Kimball, John S.
    Kutzbach, Lars
    Lara, Mark J.
    Larsen, Klaus S.
    Lee, Bang-Yong
    Liu, Zhihua
    Loranty, Michael M.
    Lund, Magnus
    Lupascu, Massimo
    Madani, Nima
    Malhotra, Avni
    Matamala, Roser
    McFarland, Jack
    McGuire, A. David
    Michelsen, Anders
    Minions, Christina
    Oechel, Walter C.
    Olefeldt, David
    Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.
    Pirk, Norbert
    Poulter, Ben
    Quinton, William
    Rezanezhad, Fereidoun
    Risk, David
    Sachs, Torsten
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Niels M.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Semenchuk, Philipp R.
    Shaver, Gaius
    Sonnentag, Oliver
    Starr, Gregory
    Treat, Claire C.
    Waldrop, Mark P.
    Wang, Yihui
    Welker, Jeffrey
    Wille, Christian
    Xu, Xiaofeng
    Zhang, Zhen
    Zhuang, Qianlai
    Zona, Donatella
    Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region2019In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 9, no 11, p. 852-857Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

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