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  • 1.
    Galafassi, Diego
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kagan, Sacha
    Milkoreit, Manjana
    Heras, María
    Bilodeau, Chantal
    Bourke, Sadhbh Juarez
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Guerrero, Leonie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Petursdóttir, Guðrún
    Tàbara, Joan David
    ‘Raising the temperature’: the arts on a warming planet2018In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN 1877-3435, E-ISSN 1877-3443, Vol. 31, p. 71-79Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The search for decisive actions to remain below 1.5 °C of global temperature rise will require profound cultural transformations. Yet our knowledge of how to promote and bring about such deep transformative changes in the minds and behaviours of individuals and societies is still limited. As climate change unravels and the planet becomes increasingly connected, societies will need to articulate a shared purpose that is both engaging and respectful of cultural diversity. Thus, there is a growing need to ‘raise the temperature’ of integration between multiple ways of knowing climate change. We have reviewed a range of literatures and synthesized them in order to draw out the perceived role of the arts in fostering climate transformations. Our analysis of climate-related art projects and initiatives shows increased engagement in recent years, particularly with the narrative, visual and performing arts. The arts are moving beyond raising awareness and entering the terrain of interdisciplinarity and knowledge co-creation. We conclude that climate-arts can contribute positively in fostering the imagination and emotional predisposition for the development and implementation of the transformations necessary to address the 1.5 °C challenge.

  • 2.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Giusti, Matteo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Goodness, Julie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hamann, Maike
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Masterson, Vanessa A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Meacham, Megan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ospina, Daniel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schill, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Sinare, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The undisciplinary journey: early-career perspectives in sustainability science2018In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 13, no 1, p. 191-204Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The establishment of interdisciplinary Master’s and PhD programs in sustainability science is opening up an exciting arena filled with opportunities for early-career scholars to address pressing sustainability challenges. However, embarking upon an interdisciplinary endeavor as an early-career scholar poses a unique set of challenges: to develop an individual scientific identity and a strong and specific methodological skill-set, while at the same time gaining the ability to understand and communicate between different epistemologies. Here, we explore the challenges and opportunities that emerge from a new kind of interdisciplinary journey, which we describe as ‘undisciplinary.’ Undisciplinary describes (1) the space or condition of early-career researchers with early interdisciplinary backgrounds, (2) the process of the journey, and (3) the orientation which aids scholars to address the complex nature of today’s sustainability challenges. The undisciplinary journey is an iterative and reflexive process of balancing methodological groundedness and epistemological agility to engage in rigorous sustainability science. The paper draws upon insights from a collective journey of broad discussion, reflection, and learning, including a survey on educational backgrounds of different generations of sustainability scholars, participatory forum theater, and a panel discussion at the Resilience 2014 conference (Montpellier, France). Based on the results from this diversity of methods, we suggest that there is now a new and distinct generation of sustainability scholars that start their careers with interdisciplinary training, as opposed to only engaging in interdisciplinary research once strong disciplinary foundations have been built. We further identify methodological groundedness and epistemological agility as guiding competencies to become capable sustainability scientists and discuss the implications of an undisciplinary journey in the current institutional context of universities and research centers. In this paper, we propose a simple framework to help early-career sustainability scholars and well-established scientists successfully navigate what can sometimes be an uncomfortable space in education and research, with the ultimate aim of producing and engaging in rigorous and impactful sustainability science.

  • 3.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hamann, Maike
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anker-Nilssen, Tycho
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Seabirds and changes in ecosystem services – from exploitation to stewardshipManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 4.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This PhD thesis provides an analysis of how an adaptive governance approach can be applied to address existing and emerging challenges in global governance with a focus on marine, wild-capture fisheries. All the papers share a coupled social-ecological framing while providing diverse but complementary perspectives. Paper I provides a lens through which it is possible understand the types of interactions that link social and ecological components of fisheries systems at the global scale. The key result of this paper was the development of a marine social-ecological framework to guide future modelling and scenario analysis. Paper II describes the process of emergence and spread of new ideas in marine governance using Marine Spatial Planning as an illustrative case study. The study shows how governance innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. A key finding of the paper is the identification and explanation of the mechanisms by which informal networks of actors are able to influence the emergence and spread of new governance forms from the local to the global scale. Paper III focuses on governance of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. The key finding from this paper is the urgent need for existing and emerging governance institutions to build capacity for responding to the challenges facing governance of marine fisheries. These challenges arise from unexpected shifts in markets, technology and society. Paper IV develops a set of four imaginative but plausible ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries drawing on trends compiled from a diverse evidence base. The four resulting narratives aim to act as lenses for engaging debate and deeper reflection on how non-linear changes in technology and society might radically shift the operating context and core assumptions of fisheries governance in the future. These papers make a novel contribution to Sustainability Science through their focus on 1) the conditions for, and mechanisms of emergence of diverse and divergent governance forms, 2) the role of agency in complex actor settings, 3) the need for governance institutions to not only deal with, but also be able to anticipate surprise, and 4) the development of scenarios of marine social-ecological futures using a creative and rigorous narrative approach.

  • 5.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dunn, Daniel C.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boustany, Andre M.
    Takei, Yoshinobu
    Elferink, Alex Oude
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Christensen, Villy
    Halpin, Patrick N.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An ocean of surprises - Trends in human use, unexpected dynamics and governance challenges in areas beyond national jurisdiction2014In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 27, p. 19-31Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The expanse of ocean which makes up all marine areas beyond national jurisdiction has been characterized as the last frontier of exploitation on the planet, a figurative final Wild West. Existing users of areas beyond national jurisdiction, with the exception of fisheries, currently have a limited footprint there as a consequence, in part, of substantial hurdles in technological development that need to be overcome before many resources can be extracted at a commercially viable scale. However, we argue surprise shifts perpetuated by both established and emerging users could lead to an expansion in actors taking opportunities to chase lucrative resources that they are currently constrained from exploiting. Rapid development could also lead to a crowded ocean due to the multiplication of users which could present a problem given the current lack of a unified institutional framework for governance connecting the different user groups. Here, we have collated trends in human use of areas beyond national jurisdiction and offer a framework for, and examples of, unexpected dynamics relevant to living and non-living marine resources. Such an approach is necessary in order to begin to mobilize an adequate governance response to changing conditions and uses of areas beyond national jurisdiction. This governance response must be able to govern established or potential users, be flexible and adaptive in response to unexpected and unpredictable dynamics and be able to transform in the face of unpredictable future uses of this vast area. Here we present a set of institutional design principles as a first tentative step in this direction.

  • 6.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Keys, Patrick
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approachManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios are important tools in developing capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, as well as the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures. We contend that for most scientific scenarios 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and that 2) in attempting to engage with complexity they often fail to interest an audience outside of academia. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns, by drawing on narrative approaches to scenarios and applying the method of Science Fiction Prototyping. Using a rich and empirical scientific background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics, we develop four ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries. They are written for a wide audience and each was carefully designed to incorporate and extrapolate from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that Science Fiction Prototyping can complement existing methods for developing scenarios and can assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. This approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and thus more useful in discussion on policy and governance questions in marine fisheries. 

  • 7.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Keys, Patrick
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping2018In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 95, p. 22-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrated social-ecological systems. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns by applying the method of science fiction prototyping to developing scenarios for the future of global fisheries in a changing global ocean. We used an empirically informed background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics to develop four 'radical ocean futures,' incorporating and extrapolating from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that the distinctive method as applied here can complement existing scenario methodologies and assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. The approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and can be useful for developing proactive governance mechanisms.

  • 8.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An innovation and agency perspective on the emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning2014In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 44, p. 366-374Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The roles of governance and technological innovation have been widely recognized as important parts of sustainability transitions. However, less attention has been paid to understanding the mechanisms of the emergence and spread of innovative ideas for stewardship of social-ecological systems. This study considers how theories of innovation and agency are able to provide explanatory power regarding the spread and impact of such ideas. This includes how innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. The emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is used as an illustrative case study. The study shows that individuals embedded in informal networks have played a key role in driving the emergence of MSP across scales and in constantly re-framing the tool in order to overcome obstacles to adoption and implementation. In a number of cases, MSP has been decoupled from the ecosystem despite being framed as a tool for ecosystem-based management. Finally, this study is important to understand the process of emergence of new integrated tools for ecosystem stewardship at the global level.

  • 9.
    Pereira, Laura
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa; City University of London, UK.
    Sitas, Nadia
    Ravera, Federica
    Jiménez-Aceituno, Amanda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes2019In: Elementa : science of the anthropocene, E-ISSN 2325-1026, Vol. 7, article id 35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development.

  • 10.
    Petersson, Matilda Tove
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dellmuth, Lisa Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History and International Relations.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Patterns and trends in non-state actor participation in regional fisheries management organizations2019In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 104, p. 146-156Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Non-state actors (NSAs) have proliferated in number and are increasingly acknowledged to matter for global governance of natural resources. This has generated considerable scholarly interest, but there is surprisingly little systematic knowledge about patterns and trends of NSA participation in global fisheries institutions. This article addresses this gap by studying NSA populations, considering more than 500 actors attending commission meetings, in the five tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (tuna RFMOs) between 2004 and 2011. It constructs a theoretical framework drawing on previous insights from population ecology and global governance literature. The articles finds that multiple NSAs participate in tuna RFMOs, but there is no general trend towards increasing proportions of NSAs compared to state participants. Representational diversity was found to be relatively limited, as NSA participants were predominately representing industry interests and from high income countries. Volatility of NSAs varied across RFMOs, but it was clear that industry representatives were frequently repeat participants, while civil society organizations (CSOs) participated only in occasional meetings. Finally, industry representatives were found to participate as part of member state delegations, while CSOs generally participated as observers. The article discusses the implications of the variation in NSA populations across RFMOs, and over time, and in relation to important concerns in the broader scholarly debates on access, influence, representation, and effectiveness in global environmental governance.

  • 11.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Transnational Corporations as 'Keystone Actors' in Marine Ecosystems2015In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 10, no 5, article id e0127533Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Keystone species have a disproportionate influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Here we analyze whether a keystone-like pattern can be observed in the relationship between transnational corporations and marine ecosystems globally. We show how thirteen corporations control 11-16% of the global marine catch (9-13 million tons) and 19-40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play important roles in their respective ecosystem. They dominate all segments of seafood production, operate through an extensive global network of subsidiaries and are profoundly involved in fisheries and aquaculture decision-making. Based on our findings, we define these companies as keystone actors of the Anthropocene. The phenomenon of keystone actors represents an increasingly important feature of the human-dominated world. Sustainable leadership by keystone actors could result in cascading effects throughout the entire seafood industry and enable a critical transition towards improved management of marine living resources and ecosystems.

  • 12.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Sarmiento, Jorge L.
    Christensen, Villy
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems2013In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, p. 735-744Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

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