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  • 1.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Rogberg, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia2016In: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, ISSN 1070-9428, E-ISSN 1857-8489, Vol. 5, 48-65 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Study region: The large semi-arid Aral Region in Central Asia and the smaller tropical Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. Study focus: Few studies have so far evaluated the performance of the latest generation ofglobal climate models on hydrological basin scales. We here investigate the performanceand projections of the global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for freshwater fluxes and their changes in two regional hydrological basins, which are both irrigated but of different scale and with different climate. New hydrological insights for the region: For precipitation in both regions, model accuracy relative to observations has remained the same or decreased in successive climate model generations until and including CMIP5. No single climate model out-performs other models across all key freshwater variables in any of the investigated basins. Scale effects are not evident from global model application directly to freshwater assessment for the two basins of widely different size. Overall, model results are less accurate and more uncertain for freshwater fluxes than for temperature, and particularly so for model-implied water storage changes. Also, the monsoon-driven runoff seasonality in MRB is not accurately reproduced. Model projections agree on evapotranspiration increase in both regions until the climatic period 2070–2099. This increase is fed by precipitation increase in MRB and by runoff water (thereby decreasing runoff) in the Aral Region.

  • 2.
    Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Balfors, Berit
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring:  Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, 044033- p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt to the changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps. 

  • 3.
    Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Balfors, Berit
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Scenario-based Transboundary Approach to Shape Arctic Futures2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Technological advances, climate change and increased strategic interest in the Arctic are causing rapid and long lasting transformations that challenge established governance and collaboration practices, and increase information demands to support regional decision making. In the rapidly transforming Arctic, however, scenarios of environmental change risk being insufficiently accounted for in adaptation planning, as monitoring of key environmental parameters has declined or is poorly optimized. Furthermore, application of support instruments for environmental planning, such as strategic environmental assessment, has been limited. This poster presents recent advancements in efforts to combine quantitative analysis of environmental monitoring in the Arctic with strategic governance research to develop instruments, such as scenarios, projections and assessment processes, that can facilitate relevant planning and decision making for change adaptation. that the research explores and aims to improve the preconditions for and links between environmental management, policy-relevant monitoring, and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic. Results include environmental monitoring assessment for the Arctic, and design of a transboundary strategic environmental assessment approach that includes scenarios as a main component for enabling strategic dialogues, information exchange and decision support. In this proposed approach, focus is placed on identifying conflicts of interest, gaps of knowledge and uncertainties, and on developing inclusive scenarios and future projections that could be used by different actors to facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on sensitive and unique Arctic ecosystems. The approach can be used to discuss and arrive at shared projections, visions and objectives for the Arctic, and its application and testing in research may aid in enabling Arctic actors to establish networks, interact, share information and develop their capacities to improve decisions on Arctic futures. 

  • 4. Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    Balfors, Berit
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Transboundary approach proposal for sustainable and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Arctic Climate and Water Change: Information Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation2013Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its water and climate systems are in rapid transformation. Relevant and accessible information about water and climate is therefore vital to detect, understand and adapt to the changes. This thesis investigates hydrological monitoring systems, climate model data, and our understanding of hydro-climatic change, for adaptation to water system changes in the Arctic. Results indicate a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which may impede efforts to understand transport and origin of key waterborne constituents. Further development of monitoring cannot rely only on a reconciliation of observations and projections on where climate change will be the most severe, as they diverge in this regard. Climate model simulations of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two recent model generations, but large inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. Late 20th-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution of stored water from permafrost or groundwater to sea level rise. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow matches that of glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all sources when assessing change. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. This especially applies to hydrochemistry monitoring, where a more complete set of monitored basins is motivated, including a general extension for the large unmonitored areas close to the Arctic Ocean. Improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections. Finally, further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers.

  • 6.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Levi, Lea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden; University of Split, Croatia.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Rogberg, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins2015In: Earths Future, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 3, no 6, 206-217 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

  • 7.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation2014In: Surveys in geophysics, ISSN 0169-3298, E-ISSN 1573-0956, Vol. 35, no 3, 853-877 p.Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections.

  • 8.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Divergent prioritization relevance of Arctic hydrological monitoring under climate change2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 9.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Divergent relevance and prioritization basis for hydro-climatic change monitoring in the Arctic2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change affects society and the Earth System largely through water cycle changes, such as altered precipitation patterns and increased drought and flood pressures. In the Arctic, which undergoes a particularly large and rapid environmental transformation, information on water cycle changes is crucial to plan for societal adaptation. A prioritization strategy is then needed for how (where and when) monitoring should be focused to get the most relevant information and data on Arctic hydro-climatic change with limited available resources. We investigate different possible strategies for a geographic prioritization of hydro-climatic change monitoring in the Arctic. Results show conflicting prioritization basis across 14 major Arctic hydrological basins. The current monitoring density distribution is relevant for the so far observed but not for the projected future changes in Arctic climate. The present and the projected future hot-spots of greatest climate change differ, so that major spatial shifts must be anticipated in the future with regard to climate change severity across the Arctic. Important temporal shifts must further be anticipated in several major Arctic basins with currently decreasing but expected future increasing precipitation.

  • 10.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Evaluation of IPCC AR4 climate model performance over 14 major Arctic watershedsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydro-climatic change indications of Arctic permafrost thawing2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydro-climatic changes and their monitoring in the Arctic: Observation-model comparisons and prioritization options for monitoring development2013In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 492, 273-280 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic undergoes particularly large and rapid hydro-climatic changes, and information on hydrological responses to these changes is crucial to plan for societal adaptation. We investigate hydro-climatic change severity and monitoring in 14 major hydrological basins across the pan-Arctic, in view of different possible strategies for their monitoring prioritization. Results show that the current distribution of monitoring density in these basins is more relevant for so far observed precipitation changes than for observed temperature changes, or for projected future temperature and precipitation changes. Furthermore, present and projected future hot-spots of greatest hydro-climatic change differ spatially, so that major spatial shifts must occur in the future among the different Arctic basins in order for observations and climate model projections to converge with regard to hydro-climatic change severity. Also temporally, observation-model convergence requires that important change direction shifts occur in major Arctic basins, which have currently decreasing precipitation while model projections imply future increasing precipitation within them. Different prioritization options for rational development of hydro-climatic monitoring can be argued for based on the present results. The divergent prioritization options imply a need for an explicit strategy for achieving certain information goals, which must be selected from a larger set of different possible goals based on societal importance.

  • 13.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydrological and hydrochemical observation status in the pan-Arctic drainage basin2009In: Polar Research, ISSN 0800-0395, E-ISSN 1751-8369, Vol. 28, 327-338 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to identify and understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle, and the impacts on the Arctic Ocean, timely and open access to water and water-chemistry data is essential. By synthesizing and analysing all openly accessible water-discharge and water-quality data, we present an updated, quantitative picture of the status of observational data on hydrological and hydrochemical fluxes from the pan-Arctic drainage basin (PADB) to the ocean. We identify and compare the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, and the differences between them, across the continents in the PADB. Results indicate significant gaps in monitoring data for water chemistry, in particular for high-latitude near-coastal areas. The differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may bias assessments of hydrological and hydrochemical fluxes to the Arctic Ocean. The reliable identification and understanding of important biogeochemical processes in the PADB require extended monitoring, particularly in high-latitude permafrost ground, and more ready access to harmonized and integrated hydrochemical data.

  • 14.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Information relevance for scenarios of Arctic climate and water change2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Relevant and accessible information about Arctic water and climate change is vital for scenario projection and adaptation in the rapidly changing region. We investigate the adequacy and relevance of hydrological monitoring systems, climate model data and hydro-climatic change understanding for formulation of change scenarios and adaptation to water system changes in the Arctic. Our results indicate a lack of harmonized water chemistry data for the pan-Arctic drainage basin, which may impede efforts at understanding transport and origin of key waterborne constituents and projecting their changes of relevance for water, climate and ecosystems. Furthermore, divergent distribution of observed and projected climate change severity poses challenges to prioritizing monitoring development. Climate model projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two successive model generations, but large inaccuracies remain for projected precipitation scenarios. Late 20th-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers generally show excess of water relative to observed precipitation changes, indicating a possible contribution of stored water from permafrost or groundwater, even when considering data uncertainty on Arctic precipitation. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and more accessible, specifically regarding hydrochemistry with a more complete set of basins, and in general for the large unmonitored areas closer to the Arctic Ocean. Improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed in particular for precipitation projections, and further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. 

  • 15.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, no 4, 316-369 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

  • 16.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for  assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic2011Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

  • 17.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Spatial patterns of decline in pan-arctic hydrological monitoring networks: a vulnerability map2008In: Northern Hydrology and its Global Role: XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference, 2008, 60-66 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The last decades of observed rapid and significant changes to the Arctic hydrological system indicate an ongoing transition to a state not previously observed in recent history, which stresses the need for hydrological and hydrochemical observation networks that are adequate for detecting, understanding and modeling these changes. Recent studies have reported a widespread decline in these networks, but little information is available on where the decline has been most critical, and how it relates to the distribution of socio-economic and climatic pressures on water resources in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. We present a quantitative picture of the spatial patterns of decline in Arctic hydrological monitoring networks. We also analyze which Arctic drainage basins that are left most vulnerable by this decline, due to their combination with socio-economic and climate pressures. Results indicate that for basins where the hydrological monitoring decline has been higher than average, population density and economic production intensity are also frequently above average. Furthermore, diverging spatial patterns in future modeled and recently observed temperature trends makes it difficult to determine the real vulnerability of these basins to temperature change pressures.

  • 18.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hannerz, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Current status of Pan-Arctic hydrologic and hydrochemical observing networks2007In: Proceedings from the Arctic Coastal Zones at Risk workshop in Tromsö, Norway, 1-3 October 2007, 2007Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Access to reliable hydrologic and hydrochemical data is of paramount importance for accurately understanding and modeling ongoing change in the Arctic hydrologic cycle under a warming climate. Recent studies have shown that the availability of and accessibility to such data is limited, and also declining, for some Arctic areas. In particular, there is a lack of consistent monitoring of water chemistry. At the same time, there is little information on where and which data gaps are most critical.

    In light of the present decline of monitoring, it is important to compile and quantify the hydrological and water chemistry monitoring in the Arctic. It is further important to investigate whether there are any systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas draining to the Arctic Ocean, as such biases might limit the ability of models to accurately predict hydrologic behavior across basins with different properties.

    We present a quantitative assessment of all openly available monitoring data for water discharge and important water chemistry parameters (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment) in the pan-Arctic drainage basin.

    Openly accessible pan-Arctic monitoring data were assembled from various databases for discharge and water chemistry, and monitoring station locations were co-referenced to a 30-minute simulated topological network. This allowed the construction of a geographically distributed representation of the temporal and spatial extent of monitoring. By linking this information with spatially distributed basin properties, differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas were analyzed. Finally, spatial patterns in the recent decline of discharge monitoring were compared with recently observed and projected future temperature trends.

    Results indicate significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring, which is both spatially and temporally much less extensive than discharge monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between the different continents in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The decline in network density has been greatest in four Eurasian basins. In these areas, recent observational temperature trends have been the smallest, while climate models predict the greatest future increases in these areas.

    The scarcity of water chemical data and the systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored basins may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and hydrochemical flux changes under a warming climate. Observed and modeled climate trends exhibit diverging spatial patterns, which makes it difficult to determine whether the basins with the greatest decline in discharge monitoring density are really the ones that will experience the greatest future temperature change. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas to enable reliable characterization of hydrologic and hydro-chemical variability and change in the region.

  • 19.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hannerz, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Pan-Arctic drainage basin monitoring: current status and potential significance for assessment of climate change effects and feedbacks2007In: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate & Water, 2007, 88-93 p.Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Access to reliable hydrologic data is of paramount importance for accurately understanding and modeling ongoing change in and climate feedbacks of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. The accessibility to such data is limited, and continues to decline for some Arctic areas, but there is little information on where and which data gaps are most critical. We present a quantitative assessment of openly accessible monitoring data for water discharge and chemistry in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. We also quantify differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas, and analyze spatial patterns in reported decline of discharge networks in relation to recently observed and future modeled temperature trends. Results indicate that there is significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between the different continents in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. Discharge network density has declined the most in four Eurasian drainage basins, which show the smallest recently observed temperature trends but the greatest modeled future temperature changes. Differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and solute flux change under a warming climate. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas to fully enable characterization of the hydrologic variability and change in the region.

  • 20.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hannerz, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin Monitoring: Current Status and Potential Significance for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Feedbacks2007In: Arctic Forum Abstract Volume, 2007Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Access to reliable hydrologic data is of paramount importance for the accurate understanding of changes in the arctic hydrologic cycle, and is also vital to policymakers as a base for sound environmental decisions. Accessibility to such data is limited and continues to decline for some arctic areas, while little information exists on which data gaps are most critical. This study presents a quantitative assessment of openly available monitoring data for water discharge and chemistry in the pan-arctic drainage basin. Results indicate that there is significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of accessible monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas. These differences may limit the reliability of assessments of arctic water and solute flux changes under a warming climate. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas, and data needs to be disseminated more efficiently, to fully enable characterization of the hydrologic variability and change in the region.

  • 21.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hannerz, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Pan-Arctic drainage basin observation networks: current status and potential significance for assessment of climate change effects and feedbacks2007In: 1st IPY workshop on Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks, 2007Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrological observation networks are integral for understanding and modeling present and future changes in and climate feedbacks to the Arctic environmental system. Recent studies have reported a widespread decline in these networks, but patterns of decline and location of critical data gaps are less certain. We present an updated and quantitative status of openly accessible observation network data for discharge and water chemistry in the pan-Arctic drainage area. We also compare relevant hydrological and socio-economic characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, and analyze the decline in network density in relation to recently observed and future modeled temperature trends. Results indicate that there are significant temporal and spatial variations in accessible data, and that there is a critical lack of accessible water chemistry data for large shares of the pan-Arctic. Furthermore, there are systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between pan-Arctic regions. Discharge network density has declined the most in four Eurasian drainage basins, which show the smallest recently observed temperature trends but the greatest modeled future temperature changes. Differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and solute flux change under a warming climate. Improved understanding of the Arctic hydrological system requires less restricted access to monitoring data, extended network coverage of unmonitored areas, and a commitment to sustaining and improving existing networks.

  • 22.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Fedorova, I.
    Dibike, Y.
    Hinzman, L.
    Mard, J.
    Mernild, S. H.
    Prowse, T.
    Semenova, O.
    Stuefer, S. L.
    Woo, M-K.
    Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, no 3, 621-649 p.Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.

  • 23.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Water Information and Water Security in the Arctic2015In: The New Arctic / [ed] B. Evengård, J. Nymand Larsen, Ø. Paasche, Springer, 2015, 225-238 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water is common to many environmental changes that are currently observed in the Arctic. To manage environmental change, and related water security challenges that are rising in the Arctic, adequate water information and monitoring is critical. Although water information systems have been deteriorating in the Arctic, there are still opportunities to combine existing data to inform policy decisions on how to manage water security. Furthermore, implementing a set of water security indicators can help identify areas of concern within the region. However, accessible climate change information is not always relevant for the scales of policymaking. In addition, improved representation of water on land in climate models is needed to better inform adaptation.

  • 24.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Shiklomanov, Alexander
    Lammers, Richard B.
    Pan-Arctic river discharge: Prioritizing monitoring of future climate change hot spots2017In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, no 1, 72-92 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic freshwater cycle is changing rapidly, which will require adequate monitoring of river flows to detect, observe, and understand changes and provide adaptation information. There has, however, been little detail about where the greatest flow changes are projected, and where monitoring therefore may need to be strengthened. In this study, we used a set of recent climate model runs and an advanced macro-scale hydrological model to analyze how flows across the continental pan-Arctic are projected to change and where the climate models agree on significant changes. We also developed a method to identify where monitoring stations should be placed to observe these significant changes, and compared this set of suggested locations with the existing network of monitoring stations. Overall, our results reinforce earlier indications of large increases in flow over much of the Arctic, but we also identify some areas where projections agree on significant changes but disagree on the sign of change. For monitoring, central and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and central Canada are hot spots for the highest changes. To take advantage of existing networks, a number of stations across central Canada and western and central Siberia could form a prioritized set. Further development of model representation of high-latitude hydrology would improve confidence in the areas we identify here. Nevertheless, ongoing observation programs may consider these suggested locations in efforts to improve monitoring of the rapidly changing Arctic freshwater cycle.

  • 25.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Linnaeus University, Sweden.
    Balfors, Berit
    The Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Johansson, Emma
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Sweden.
    Juston, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Levi, Lea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. The Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden; University of Split, Croatia.
    Olofsson, Bo
    The Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Quin, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Åström, Mats
    Linnaeus University, Sweden.
    Cvetkovic, Vladimir
    The Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Needs and means to advance science, policy and management understanding of the freshwater system – A synthesis report2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Fragmented and inconsistent understanding of the freshwater system limits our ability to achieve water security and sustainability under the human-driven changes occurring in the Anthropocene. To advance system-level understanding of freshwater, gaps and inconsistencies in knowledge, data, representations and links of processes and subsystems need to be identified and bridged under consideration of the freshwater system as a continuous whole. 

    Based on such identification, a freshwater system conceptualization is developed in this report, which emphasizes four essential, yet often neglected system aspects:

    i) Distinction of coastal divergent catchments.

    ii) Four main zones (surface, subsurface, coastal, observation) of different types of freshwater change.

    iii) Water pathways as system-coupling agents that link and partition water change among the four change zones.

    iv) Direct interactions with the anthroposphere as integral system pathways across the change zones.

    We explain and exemplify some key implications of these aspects, identifying in the process also distinct patterns of human-driven changes in large-scale water fluxes and nutrient loads.

    The present conceptualization provides a basis for common inter- and trans-disciplinary understanding and systematic characterization of the freshwater system function and its changes, and of approaches to their modeling and monitoring. This can be viewed and used as a unifying checklist that can advance science, policy and management of freshwater and related environmental changes across various scales and world regions.

  • 26.
    Dyurgerov, M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Integrated assessment of changes in freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 115, no D12116Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present an integrated and updated quantitative estimation of the river discharge and the meltwater flux and mass contributions from glaciers to the Arctic Ocean and to sea level rise. The average meltwater fluxes from mountain glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet have increased markedly, by 56 km3/yr water equivalent (w.e.) and 160 km3/yr w.e., respectively, from the period 1961–1992 to the period 1993–2006, reaching in total 700–800 km3/yr w.e. in 2000–2006. Terrestrial runoff is on the order of 2.4 × 103 km3/yr and remains significantly larger than the glacier meltwater flux. The terrestrial runoff increase from 1961–1992 to 1993–2006 is 87 km3/yr, which is small in relative terms, but in absolute terms it is of the same order of magnitude as the meltwater increase from glaciers. The total contribution to sea level rise from glaciers draining to the Arctic Ocean has increased from 0.27 mm/yr (1961–1992) to about 0.64 mm/yr (1993–2006). In some years of the 1993–2006 period, the glacier contribution to sea level rise reached almost 1 mm/yr.

  • 27.
    Fischer, Sandra
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 2, 515-526 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world's highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region's ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260-720 Mt yr(-1)) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning's roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075-2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.

  • 28.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land use and water use2012In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 16, no 5, 1335-1347 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3% of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Results show that errors in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from single GCMs have large influence on projected change trends (for the period 2010-2039) of river runoff (R), even though the ASDB is spatially well resolved by current GCMs. By contrast, observed biases in GCM ensemble mean results have relatively small influence on projected R change trends. Ensemble mean results show that projected future climate change will considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future T change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices, which shows how climate change and water use change can interact in modifying ET (and R). With maintained irrigation practices, R is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50% higher T increase (of 2.3 A degrees C instead of the projected 1.5 A degrees C until 2010-2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

  • 29.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 1, 014015- p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  • 30. Prowse, T.
    et al.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Mård, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Carmack, E.
    Holland, M.
    Instanes, A.
    Vihma, T.
    Wrona, F. J.
    Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Summary of key emerging issues2015In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 120, no 10, 1887-1893 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS(sigma)). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFS(sigma) was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFS(sigma) summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.

  • 31. Rennermalm, Asa K.
    et al.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Mote, Thomas L.
    Spatial and Scale-Dependent Controls on North American Pan-Arctic Minimum River Discharge2012In: Geographical Analysis, ISSN 0016-7363, E-ISSN 1538-4632, Vol. 44, no 3, 202-218 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Spatial patterns of minimum monthly river discharge in the North American Pan-Arctic and its potential controls are explored with geographically weighted regression (GWR). Minimum discharge is indicative of soil water conditions; therefore, understanding spatial variability of its controls may provide insights into patterns of hydrologic change. Here, GWR models are applied to determine a suitable combination of independent variables selected from a set of eight variables. A model specification with annual mean river discharge, temperature at time of minimum discharge, and biome describes well the spatial patterns in minimum discharge. However, minimum discharge in larger watersheds is influenced more by temperature and biome distributions than it is in small basins, suggesting that scale is critical for understanding minimum river discharge. This study is the first to apply GWR to explore spatial variation in Pan-Arctic hydrology.

  • 32.
    Törnqvist, Rebecka
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Rogberg, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin2014In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 519, 1953-1962 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climatic changes can profoundly alter hydrological conditions in river basins. Lake Baikal is the deepest and largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, and has a unique ecosystem with numerous endemic animal and plant species. We here identify long-term historical (1938-2009) and projected future hydro-climatic trends in the Selenga River Basin, which is the largest sub-basin (>60% inflow) of Lake Baikal. Our analysis is based on long-term river monitoring and historical hydro-climatic observation data, as well as ensemble mean and 22 individual model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). Study of the latter considers a historical period (from 1961) and projections for 2010-2039 and 2070-2099. Observations show almost twice as fast warming as the global average during the period 1938-2009. Decreased intra-annual variability of river discharge over this period indicates basin-scale permafrost degradation. CMIP5 ensemble projections show further future warming, implying continued permafrost thaw. Modelling of runoff change, however, is highly uncertain, with many models (64%) and their ensemble mean failing to reproduce historical behaviour, and with indicated future increase being small relative to the large differences among individual model results.

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