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  • 1. Arvaniti, Maria
    et al.
    Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran B.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Time-consistent renewable resource management with present bias and regime shifts2023In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, ISSN 0167-2681, E-ISSN 1879-1751, Vol. 207, p. 479-495Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the extraction plan of present-biased decision makers managing a renewable resource stock whose growth is uncertain and which could undergo a rapid and significant change when stock falls below a threshold. We show that the Markov-Nash equilibrium extraction policy is unique, time consistent, and increasing in resource stock. An increase in the threshold leads to increased resource extraction, rather than the precautionary reduction in extraction often observed with exponential discounting. An increase in the degree of present bias also leads to an increase in resource extraction. Our analysis suggests that accounting for and appropriately dealing with resource managers’ present bias may be important to understand resource use sustainability.

  • 2.
    Biggs, Reinette
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Engström, Gustav
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Kautsky, Nils
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia.
    General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events2012In: Sustainability, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 4, no 12, p. 3248-3259Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

     Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.

  • 3.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Karcher, Michael
    Gascard, Jean-Claude
    Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives2017In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 46, p. 341-354Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

  • 4.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Sweden.
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Sweden.
    Kautsky, Nils
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Sweden.
    Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications2013In: Environment and Development Economics, ISSN 1355-770X, E-ISSN 1469-4395, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 111-132Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Systems linking people and nature, known as social-ecological systems, are increasingly understood as complex adaptive systems. Essential features of these complex adaptive systems – such as nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions, individual and spatial heterogeneity, and varying time scales – pose substantial challenges for modeling. However, ignoring these characteristics can distort our picture of how these systems work, causing policies to be less effective or even counterproductive. In this paper we present recent developments in modeling social-ecological systems, illustrate some of these challenges with examples related to coral reefs and grasslands, and identify the implications for economic and policy analysis.

  • 5. Das, Saudamini
    et al.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Sweden.
    Mangroves can provide protection against wind damage during storms2013In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, ISSN 0272-7714, E-ISSN 1096-0015, Vol. 134, p. 98-107Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Research has established that mangroves can protect lives and property from storms by buffering the impacts of storm surges. However, their effects in attenuating wind velocity and providing protection from wind damage during storms are not known. This study examined whether mangroves attenuate damage from cyclonic winds and found that they provide substantial protection to properties, even relatively far away from mangroves and the coast. We devised a theoretical model of wind protection by mangroves and calibrated and applied this model using data from the 1999 cyclone in the Odisha region of India. The model predicted and quantified the actual level of damage reasonably accurately and showed that mangroves reduced wind damage to houses. The wind protection value of mangroves in reducing house damage amounted to approximately US$177 per hectare at 1999 prices. This provides additional evidence of the storm protection ecosystem services that mangroves supply in the region and an additional reason to invest in mangrove ecosystems to provide better adaptability to coastal disasters such as storms.

  • 6.
    Elsler, Laura G.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Haight Frawley, Timothy
    Britten, Gregory L.
    Crowder, Larry B.
    DuBois, Timothy C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radosavljevic, Sonja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gilly, William F.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality: evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery2021In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 21, no 2, article id 35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.

  • 7.
    Folke, Carl
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Lambin, Eric F.
    Adger, W. Neil
    Scheffer, Marten
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Levin, Simon A.
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Anderies, John M.
    Chapin, Stuart
    Crepin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Dauriach, Alice
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Kautsky, Nils
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Walker, Brian H.
    Watson, James R.
    Wilen, James
    de Zeeuw, Aart
    Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship2019In: Nature Ecology & Evolution, E-ISSN 2397-334X, Vol. 3, no 10, p. 1396-1403Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.

  • 8. Gascard, Jean-Claude
    et al.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Karcher, Michael
    Young, Oran R.
    Facets of Arctic Change2017In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 46, p. 339-340Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 9. Havenhand, Jonathan N.
    et al.
    Filipsson, Helena L.
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Jagers, Sverker
    Langlet, David
    Matti, Simon
    Turner, David
    Winder, Monika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    de Wit, Pierre
    Anderson, Leif G.
    Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 8, p. 831-854Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ocean temperatures are rising; species are shifting poleward, and pH is falling (ocean acidification, OA). We summarise current understanding of OA in the brackish Baltic-Skagerrak System, focussing on the direct, indirect and interactive effects of OA with other anthropogenic drivers on marine biogeochemistry, organisms and ecosystems. Substantial recent advances reveal a pattern of stronger responses (positive or negative) of species than ecosystems, more positive responses at lower trophic levels and strong indirect interactions in food-webs. Common emergent themes were as follows: OA drives planktonic systems toward the microbial loop, reducing energy transfer to zooplankton and fish; and nutrient/food availability ameliorates negative impacts of OA. We identify several key areas for further research, notably the need for OA-relevant biogeochemical and ecosystem models, and understanding the ecological and evolutionary capacity of Baltic-Skagerrak ecosystems to respond to OA and other anthropogenic drivers.

  • 10. Homer-Dixon, Thomas
    et al.
    Walker, Brian
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Lambin, Eric F.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis2015In: Ecology & Society, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 3, article id 6Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern's deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system's behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework's propositions.

  • 11. Jagers, Sverker C.
    et al.
    Matti, Simon
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Langlet, David
    Havenhand, Jonathan N.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Filipsson, Helena L.
    Galaz, Victor R.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anderson, Leif G.
    Societal causes of, and responses to, ocean acidification2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 8, p. 816-830Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Major climate and ecological changes affect the world's oceans leading to a number of responses including increasing water temperatures, changing weather patterns, shrinking ice-sheets, temperature-driven shifts in marine species ranges, biodiversity loss and bleaching of coral reefs. In addition, ocean pH is falling, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). The root cause of OA lies in human policies and behaviours driving society's dependence on fossil fuels, resulting in elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In this review, we detail the state of knowledge of the causes of, and potential responses to, OA with particular focus on Swedish coastal seas. We also discuss present knowledge gaps and implementation needs.

  • 12. Levin, Simon A.
    et al.
    Anderies, John M.
    Adger, Neil
    Barrett, Scott
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Cardenas, Juan Camilo
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ehrlich, Paul
    Fischer, Joern
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Kautsky, Nils
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Kling, Catherine
    Nyborg, Karine
    Polasky, Stephen
    Scheffer, Marten
    Segerson, Kathleen
    Shogren, Jason
    van den Bergh, Jeroen
    Walker, Brian
    Weber, Elke U.
    Wilen, James
    Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond2022In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 697-711Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but once-in-a-century weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of our life-support systems, and challenge the robustness and resilience of societies. Dealing with extremes will require new approaches and large-scale collective action. Preemptive measures can increase general resilience, a first line of protection, while more specific reactive responses are developed. Preemptive measures also can minimize the negative effects of events that cannot be avoided. In this paper, we first explore approaches to prevention, mitigation and adaptation, drawing inspiration from how evolutionary challenges have made biological systems robust and resilient, and from the general theory of complex adaptive systems. We argue further that proactive steps that go beyond will be necessary to reduce unacceptable consequences.

  • 13. Li, Chuan-Zhong
    et al.
    Crepin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    The Economics of Resilience2017In: International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 1932-1465, E-ISSN 1932-1473, Vol. 11, no 4, p. 309-353Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides an interpretive overview on the economics of resilience with special reference to social-ecological systems. We address the basic sciences of regime shifts and resilience in different settings linked to empirical cases and review the economic models related to these aspects. In particular we discuss models to assess market outcomes when thresholds exist and are known and particular characteristics of such systems when they are optimally managed. We also examine multiple aspects of uncertainty including unknown but learnable thresholds and systems where either the threshold or the stock dynamics are uncertain because they change in a stochastic way. Moreover, we discuss resilience in relation to measurement and valuation using approaches that focus on the role of biodiversity for resilience, the insurance value of resilience and the value of resilience as a stock that influences social welfare. Finally, we discuss issues related to practical resilience management and identify knowledge gaps that future research efforts could address.

  • 14.
    Lindahl, Therese
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schill, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Potential Disasters can Turn the Tragedy into Success2016In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 65, no 3, p. 657-676Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a novel experimental design that allows testing how users of a common-pool resource respond to an endogenously driven drastic drop in the supply of the resource. We show that user groups will manage a resource more efficiently when confronted with such a non-concave resource growth function, compared to groups facing a logistic growth function. Even among cooperative groups there is a significant behavioral difference, although theory predicts there should not be. We argue that effectiveness of communication is endogenous to the problem; the threat of reaching a critical tipping point, beyond which the growth rate will drop drastically, triggers more effective communication within the group, enabling stronger commitment for cooperation and more knowledge sharing, which together explains the results. We argue that the insights generated by this study can be seen as one of many, but nevertheless important, contributions towards an increased understanding of the interactions between human behavior and the environment in common-pool resource systems.

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  • 15. Ntuli, Herbert
    et al.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schill, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Muchapondwa, Edwin
    Sanctioned Quotas Versus Information Provisioning for Community Wildlife Conservation in Zimbabwe: A Framed Field Experiment Approach2023In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 84, no 3, p. 775-823Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the behavioural responses of natural common-pool resource users to three policy interventions-sanctioned quotas, information provisioning, and a combination of both. We focus on situations in which users find utility in multiple resources (pastures and wild animal stocks) that all stem from the same ecosystem with complex dynamics, and management could trigger a regime shift, drastically altering resource regrowth. We performed a framed field experiment with 384 villagers from communities managing common-pool wildlife in Zimbabwe. We find that user groups are likely to manage these natural resources more efficiently when facing a policy intervention (either a sanctioned quota, receiving information about a drastic drop in the stocks' regrowth below a threshold, or a combination of both), compared to groups facing no intervention. A sanctioned quota is likely to perform better than providing information about the existence of a threshold. However, having information about the threshold also leads to higher efficiency and fewer depletion cases, compared to a situation without any intervention. The main contribution of this study is to provide insights that can inform policymakers and development practitioners about the performance of concrete and feasible policy interventions for community wildlife conservation in Southern Africa.

  • 16.
    Ospina, Daniel
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions-a social-ecological regime shift analysis2019In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 2, article id 024017Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how remittances shape the effect of rural out-migration on the potential for local forest transitions. Building on an existing theoretical model of social-ecological regime shifts that links migration, farmland abandonment, and forest regrowth, we incorporate migrant remittances as an additional rural-urban teleconnection. We also extend the ecological dynamics to include a dynamical forest regrowth rate, generating a slowing-down of regrowth once the landscape has undergone extensive agricultural change. We first analyse how these two extensions to the base model reshape the stability of the system, altering the existence and dynamics of alternative agricultural and forested regimes. Then we explore how two different uses of remittances by rural households (hiring agricultural labor or supplementing household income/consumption) affect the potential for local forest transitions in a context of structural economic change, represented as an increasing differential of rural and urban incomes. We find that remittances change the character of forested and agricultural regimes, and increase the resilience of the agricultural regime. This effect is stronger when remittances are used for hiring labor. The findings are consistent with empirical research that highlights the remarkable persistence of rural livelihoods and landscapes in the face of increasing global connectivity and urbanization. Remittances, and possibly other rural-urban teleconnections, are necessary components for an updated 'economic development pathway' of forest transitions. With this simple model we show that social-ecological regime shifts offer a useful perspective to study land use transition dynamics and advance land change theory.

  • 17.
    Schill, Caroline
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Anderies, John M.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Polasky, Stephen
    Cárdenas, Juan Camilo
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Janssen, Marco A.
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    A more dynamic understanding of human behaviour for the Anthropocene2019In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 12, p. 1075-1082Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human behaviour is of profound significance in shaping pathways towards sustainability. Yet, the approach to understanding human behaviour in many fields remains reliant on overly simplistic models. For a better understanding of the interface between human behaviour and sustainability, we take work in behavioural economics and cognitive psychology as a starting point, but argue for an expansion of this work by adopting a more dynamic and systemic understanding of human behaviour, that is, as part of complex adaptive systems. A complex adaptive systems approach allows us to capture behaviour as ''enculturated' and 'enearthed', co-evolving with socio-cultural and biophysical contexts. Connecting human behaviour and context through a complex adaptive systems lens is critical to inform environmental governance and management for sustainability, and ultimately to better understand the dynamics of the Anthropocene itself.

  • 18.
    Schill, Caroline
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Collective action and the risk of ecosystem regime shifts: insights from a laboratory experiment2015In: Ecology & Society, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 1, article id 48Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystems can undergo regime shifts that potentially lead to a substantial decrease in the availability of provisioning ecosystem services. Recent research suggests that the frequency and intensity of regime shifts increase with growing anthropogenic pressure, so understanding the underlying social-ecological dynamics is crucial, particularly in contexts where livelihoods depend heavily on local ecosystem services. In such settings, ecosystem services are often derived from common-pool resources. The limited capacity to predict regime shifts is a major challenge for common-pool resource management, as well as for systematic empirical analysis of individual and group behavior, because of the need for extensive preshift and postshift data. Unsurprisingly, current knowledge is mostly based on theoretical models. We examine behavioral group responses to a latent endogenously driven regime shift in a laboratory experiment. If the group exploited the common-pool resource beyond a certain threshold level, its renewal rate dropped drastically. To determine how the risk of such a latent shift affects resource management and collective action, we compared four experimental treatments in which groups were faced with a latent shift with different probability levels (0.1, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0). Our results suggest that different probability levels do not make people more or less likely to exploit the resource beyond its critical potential threshold. However, when the likelihood of the latent shift is certain or high, people appear more prone to agree initially on a common exploitation strategy, which in turn is a predictor for averting the latent shift. Moreover, risk appears to have a positive effect on collective action, but the magnitude of this effect is influenced by how risk and probabilities are communicated and perceived.

  • 19. Sterner, Thomas
    et al.
    Barbier, Edward B.
    Bateman, Ian
    van den Bijgaart, Inge
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Edenhofer, Ottmar
    Fischer, Carolyn
    Habla, Wolfgang
    Hassler, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Johansson-Stenman, Olof
    Lange, Andreas
    Polasky, Stephen
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Smith, Henrik G.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Wagner, Gernot
    Wilen, James E.
    Alpiza, Francisco
    Azar, Christian
    Carless, Donna
    Chávez, Carlos
    Corial, Jessica
    Engström, Gustav
    Jagers, Sverker C.
    Köhlin, Gunnar
    Löfgren, Åsa
    Pleijel, Håkan
    Robinson, Amanda
    Policy design for the Anthropocene2019In: Nature Sustainability, ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 1, p. 14-21Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Today, more than ever, 'Spaceship Earth' is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet(1). Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.

  • 20.
    Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jansen, Raf E. V.
    Avila Ortega, Daniel Itzamna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI). Member of the Leibnitz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
    Donges, Jonathan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Member of the Leibnitz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita). Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
    Hahn, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability2023In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8436, E-ISSN 1471-2970, Vol. 379, no 1893, article id 20220261Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

  • 21.
    Troell, Max
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Eide, Arne
    Isaksen, John
    Hermansen, Øystein
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Seafood from a changing Arctic2017In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 46, p. 368-386Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We review current knowledge about climate change impacts on Arctic seafood production. Large-scale changes in the Arctic marine food web can be expected for the next 40-100 years. Possible future trajectories under climate change for Arctic capture fisheries anticipate the movement of aquatic species into new waters and changed the dynamics of existing species. Negative consequences are expected for some fish stocks but others like the Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) may instead increase. Arctic aquaculture that constitutes about 2% of global farming is mainly made up of Norwegian salmon (Salmo salar) farming. The sector will face many challenges in a warmer future and some of these are already a reality impacting negatively on salmon growth. Other more indirect effects from climate change are more uncertain with respect to impacts on the economic conditions of Arctic aquaculture.

  • 22. Walker, Brian
    et al.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anderies, John M.
    Andersson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. North-West University, South Africa; University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Global Resilience Partnership, Sweden.
    Barrett, Scott
    Bennett, Elena
    Cardenas, Juan Camilo
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Chapin III, F. Stuart
    de Zeeuw, Aart
    Fischer, Joern
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Levin, Simon
    Nyborg, Karine
    Polasky, Stephen
    Segerson, Kathleen
    Seto, Karen C.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Shogren, Jason F.
    Tavoni, Alessandro
    van den Bergh, Jeroen
    Weber, Elke U.
    Vincent, Jeffrey R.
    Response diversity as a sustainability strategy2023In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 6, no 6, p. 621-629Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

  • 23. Zipper, Samuel C.
    et al.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Sweden.
    Gleeson, Tom
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Porkka, Miina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Crepin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gerten, Dieter
    Hoff, Holger
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Matthews, Nathanial
    Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza
    Kummu, Matti
    Wada, Yoshihide
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales2020In: Earth's future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 8, no 2, article id UNSP e2019EF001377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The planetary boundaries framework defines the safe operating space for humanity represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross-scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.

1 - 23 of 23
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