Interpretation of comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results can be challenging in the presence of uncertainty. To aid in interpreting such results under the goal of any comparative LCA, we aim to provide guidance to practitioners by gaining insights into uncertainty-statistics methods (USMs). We review five USMs-discernibility analysis, impact category relevance, overlap area of probability distributions, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), and modified NHST- and provide a common notation, terminology, and calculation platform. We further cross-compare all USMs by applying them to a case study on electric cars. USMs belong to a confirmatory or an exploratory statistics' branch, each serving different purposes to practitioners. Results highlight that common uncertainties and the magnitude of differences per impact are key in offering reliable insights. Common uncertainties are particularly important as disregarding them can lead to incorrect recommendations. On the basis of these considerations, we recommend the modified NHST as a confirmatory USM. We also recommend discernibility analysis as an exploratory USM along with recommendations for its improvement, as it disregards the magnitude of the differences. While further research is necessary to support our conclusions, the results and supporting material provided can help LCA practitioners in delivering a more robust basis for decision-making.

Seafood is seen as promising for more sustainable diets. The increasing production in land-based closed Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RASs) has overcome many local environmental challenges with traditional open net-pen systems such as eutrophication. The energy needed to maintain suitable water quality, with associated emissions, has however been seen as challenging from a global perspective. This study uses Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance and improvement potentials of a commercial RAS farm of tilapia and Clarias in Sweden. The environmental impact categories and indicators considered were freshwater eutrophication, climate change, energy demand, land use, and dependency on animal-source feed inputs per kg of fillet. We found that feed production contributed most to all environmental impacts (between 67 and 98%) except for energy demand for tilapia, contradicting previous findings that farm-level energy use is a driver of environmental pressures. The main improvement potentials include improved by-product utilization and use of a larger proportion of plant-based feed ingredients. Together with further smaller improvement potential identified, this suggests that RASs may play a more important role in a future, environmentally sustainable food system.

Humanity has never benefited more from the ocean as a source of food, livelihoods, and well-being, yet on a global scale this has been accompanied by trajectories of degradation and persistent inequity. Awareness of this has spurred policymakers to develop an expanding network of ocean governance instruments, catalyzed civil society pressure on the public and private sector, and motivated engagement by the general public as consumers and constituents. Among local communities, diverse examples of stewardship have rested on the foundation of care, knowledge and agency. But does an analog for stewardship exist in the context of globally active multinational corporations? Here, we consider the seafood industry and its efforts to navigate this new reality through private governance. We examine paradigmatic events in the history of the sustainable seafood movement, from seafood boycotts in the 1970s through to the emergence of certification measures, benchmarks, and diverse voluntary environmental programs. We note four dimensions of stewardship in which efforts by actors within the seafood industry have aligned with theoretical concepts of stewardship, which we describe as (1) moving beyond compliance, (2) taking a systems perspective, (3) living with uncertainty, and (4) understanding humans as embedded elements of the biosphere. In conclusion, we identify emerging stewardship challenges for the seafood industry and suggest the urgent need to embrace a broader notion of ocean stewardship that extends beyond seafood.

A circular economy is considered one way to reduce environmental impacts of human activities, by more efficient use of resources and recovery, resulting in less waste and emissions compared to linear take-make-dispose systems. Muscat et al. developed five ecological principles to guide biomass use towards a circular economy. A few studies have demonstrated environmental benefits of applying these principles to land-based food systems, but to date, these principles have not been explored in aquaculture. The current study expands on these principles and provides a narrative review to (i) translate them to aquaculture, while identifying implications for the main species and production systems, and (ii) identify the main pathways to make aquaculture more circular. We show that the underlying concepts of the ‘safeguard’, ‘entropy’, and ‘recycle’ principles have been well researched and sometimes well implemented. In contrast, the ‘avoid’ and ‘prioritise’ principles have been explored much less; doing so would provide an opportunity to decrease environmental impacts of aquaculture at the food-system level. One example is prioritising the production of species that contribute to food and nutrition security, have low environmental impacts and thinking at wider food system scale to avoid feed-food competition in aquaculture. We identified six priorities that could make aquaculture more circular: (i) increase production and demand for the most essential species, (ii) decrease food loss and waste at farm and post-harvest stages, (iii) support nutrient recycling practices at multiple scales, (iv) adapt aquafeed formulations, (v) inform consumers about benefits of species of low trophic levels and other environmentally friendly aquatic foods, and (vi) address urgent research gaps.

Background

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a global problem with large health and economic consequences. Current gaps in quantitative data are a major limitation for creating models intended to simulate the drivers of AMR. As an intermediate step, expert knowledge and opinion could be utilized to fill gaps in knowledge for areas of the system where quantitative data does not yet exist or are hard to quantify. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify quantifiable data about the current state of the factors that drive AMR and the strengths and directions of relationships between the factors from statements made by a group of experts from the One Health system that drives AMR development and transmission in a European context.

Methods

This study builds upon previous work that developed a causal loop diagram of AMR using input from two workshops conducted in 2019 in Sweden with experts within the European food system context. A secondary analysis of the workshop transcripts was conducted to identify semi-quantitative data to parameterize drivers in a model of AMR.

Main findings

Participants spoke about AMR by combining their personal experiences with professional expertise within their fields. The analysis of participants’ statements provided semi-quantitative data that can help inform a future of AMR emergence and transmission based on a causal loop diagram of AMR in a Swedish One Health system context.

Conclusion

Using transcripts of a workshop including participants with diverse expertise across the system that drives AMR, we gained invaluable insight into the past, current, and potential future states of the major drivers of AMR, particularly where quantitative data are lacking.

China is a key player in global production, consumption, and trade of seafood. Given this dominance, Chinese choices regarding what seafood to eat, and how and where to source it, are increasingly important—for China, and for the rest of the world. This perspective explores this issue using a transdisciplinary approach and discusses plausible trajectories and implications for assumptions of future modeling efforts and global environmental sustainability and seafood supply. We outline China's 2030 projected domestic seafood production and consumption through an examination of available statistics, and qualitatively evaluate these in relation to key stated Chinese policy targets, consumer trends, and dominant political narratives. Our analysis shows that by 2030 China is likely to see seafood consumption outstrip domestic production. To meet the seafood gap China will likely attempt to increase domestic freshwater and offshore aquaculture, increase seafood imports, possibly expand the distant water fishing industry, and invest in seafood production abroad.

Freshwater use for food production is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades with population growth, changing demographics, and shifting diets. Ensuring joint food-water security has prompted efforts to quantify freshwater use for different food products and production methods. However, few analyses quantify freshwater use for seafood production, and those that do use inconsistent water accounting. This inhibits water use comparisons among seafood products or between seafood and agricultural/livestock products. This 'seafood gap' in the food-water nexus literature will become increasingly problematic as seafood consumption is growing globally and aquaculture is one of the fastest growing animal food sectors in the world. Therefore, the present study 1) reviews freshwater use concepts as they relate to seafood production; 2) provides three cases to highlight the particular water use concerns for aquaculture, and; 3) outlines future directions to integrate seafood into the broader food-water nexus discussion. By revisiting water use concepts through a focus on seafood production systems, we highlight the key water use processes that should be considered for seafood production and offer a fresh perspective on the analysis of freshwater use in food systems more broadly. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.

Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.

IntroductionAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a challenge to modern medicine. Interventions have been applied worldwide to tackle AMR, but these actions are often not reported to peers or published, leading to important knowledge gaps about what actions are being taken. Understanding factors that influence the implementation of AMR interventions and what factors are relevant in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs) were the key objectives of this exploratory study, with the aim to identifying which priorities these contexts need.MethodsA questionnaire was used to explore context, characteristics, and success factors or obstacles to intervention success based on participant input. The context was analyzed using the AMR-Intervene framework, and success factors and obstacles to intervention success were identified using thematic analysis.ResultsOf the 77 interventions, 57 were implemented in HICs and 17 in LMICs. Interventions took place in the animal sector, followed by the human sector. Public organizations were mainly responsible for implementation and funding. Nine themes and 32 sub-themes emerged as important for intervention success. The themes most frequently reported were 'behavior', 'capacity and resources', 'planning', and 'information'. Five sub-themes were key in all contexts ('collaboration and coordination', 'implementation', 'assessment', 'governance', and 'awareness'), two were key in LMICs ('funding and finances' and 'surveillance, antimicrobial susceptibility testing and preventive screening'), and five were key in HICs ('mandatory', 'multiple profiles', 'personnel', 'management', and 'design').ConclusionLMIC sub-themes showed that funding and surveillance were still key issues for interventions, while important HIC sub-themes were more specific and detailed, including mandatory enforcement, multiple profiles, and personnel needed for good management and good design. While behavior is often underrated when implementing AMR interventions, capacity and resources are usually considered, and LMICs can benefit from sub-themes captured in HICs if tailored to their contexts. The factors identified can improve the design, planning, implementation, and evaluation of interventions.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) affects the environment, and animal and human health. Institutions worldwide have applied various measures, some of which have reduced antimicrobial use and AMR. However, little is known about factors influencing the success of AMR interventions. To address this gap, we engaged health professionals, designers, and implementers of AMR interventions in an exploratory study to learn about their experience and factors that challenged or facilitated interventions and the context in which interventions were implemented. Based on participant input, our thematic analysis identified behaviour; institutional governance and management; and sharing and enhancing information as key factors influencing success. Important sub-themes included: correct behaviour reinforcement, financial resources, training, assessment, and awareness of AMR. Overall, interventions were located in high-income countries, the human sector, and were publicly funded and implemented. In these contexts, behaviour patterns strongly influenced success, yet are often underrated or overlooked when designing AMR interventions. Improving our understanding of what contributes to successful interventions would allow for better designs of policies that are tailored to specific contexts. Exploratory approaches can provide encouraging results in complex challenges, as made evident in our study. Remaining challenges include more engagement in this type of study by professionals and characterisation of themes that influence intervention outcomes by context.

Rising inequalities and accelerating global environmental change pose two of the most pressing challenges of the twenty-first century. To explore how these phenomena are linked, we apply a social-ecological systems perspective and review the literature to identify six different types of interactions (or pathways) between inequality and the biosphere. We find that most of the research so far has only considered one-directional effects of inequality on the biosphere, or vice versa. However, given the potential for complex dynamics between socioeconomic and environmental factors within social-ecological systems, we highlight examples from the literature that illustrate the importance of cross-scale interactions and feedback loops between inequality and the biosphere. This review draws on diverse disciplines to advance a systemic understanding of the linkages between inequality and the biosphere, specifically recognizing cross-scale feedbacks and the multidimensional nature of inequality.

Introduction It is widely recognized that LCA is in most cases relative and contains uncertainties due to choices and data. This paper analyses the combination of the two comparative uncertainties. Basic concepts We carefully define the idea of relativity and uncertainty within LCA. We finish off by giving an example of case where inappropriate handling of comparative uncertainties will lead to a misleading result for a decision-maker. Correlations We develop a generic framework for probabilistic comparative LCA and analyse at which places correlations may be present. We also discuss the most convenient approaches for handling such correlated uncertainties. Conclusion We put the elements discussed in a structure that provides a research agenda for dealing with comparative uncertainties in LCA.

Egyptian aquaculture is gaining importance as an affordable and nutritious source of animal protein among Egyptians. Nile tilapia dominates production (77% of total production), followed by carps (17%) and mullets (11%). Egyptian tilapia farmers are, however, facing challenges with regards to financial viability and poor water quality. Fish farms are also contributing towards water pollution and other environmental impacts. In order to improve the situation, WorldFish launched the IEIDEAS project in 2011 with the ambition to train farmers in best management practices (BMP) and distribute the 9th generation of the Abbassa strain (G9). The present study aimed at evaluating any relative environmental gains that BMP and G9 offers compared to conventional farming using life cycle assessment (LCA). Inventory data representing 137 farmers and four groups (control, BMP, G9 and BMP + G9) were evaluated. Life cycle impact assessment results including quantitative uncertainties were then calculated and statistically tested, using Monte Carlo analysis and Wilcoxon paired significance test. Five impact categories were explored: global warming, eutrophication, acidification, freshwater consumption and land use. The G9 stain offered the greatest improvements across the evaluated impact categories, significantly reducing environmental impacts with between 12% and 36%. BMP, in the meantime, only offered significant improvements compared to the control with regards to eutrophication, acidification, freshwater consumption and land use. Meanwhile, BMP + G9 performed comparably to only G9 except for eutrophication where it had a significantly larger environmental footprint. More efficient feed utilization and higher productivity were the main reasons for the environmental improvements. Additional improvements that should be explored include improved feeds made of sustainably sourced raw materials, and better pond water management, including probiotics and paddle-wheels.

Statement of relevance: BMP and improved stains help reduce environmental impacts

Global seafood provides almost 20% of all animal protein in diets, and aquaculture is, despite weakening trends, the fastest growing food sector worldwide. Recent increases in production have largely been achieved through intensification of existing farming systems, resulting in higher risks of disease outbreaks. This has led to increased use of antimicrobials (AMs) and consequent antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in many farming sectors, which may compromise the treatment of bacterial infections in the aquaculture species itself and increase the risks of AMR in humans through zoonotic diseases or through the transfer of AMR genes to human bacteria. Multiple stakeholders have, as a result, criticized the aquaculture industry, resulting in consequent regulations in some countries. AM use in aquaculture differs from that in livestock farming due to aquaculture's greater diversity of species and farming systems, alternative means of AM application, and less consolidated farming practices in many regions. This, together with less research on AM use in aquaculture in general, suggests that large data gaps persist with regards to its overall use, breakdowns by species and system, and how AMs become distributed in, and impact on, the overall social-ecological systems in which they are embedded. This paper identifies the main factors (and challenges) behind application rates, which enables discussion of mitigation pathways. From a set of identified key mechanisms for AM usage, six proximate factors are identified: vulnerability to bacterial disease, AM access, disease diagnostic capacity, AMR, target markets and food safety regulations, and certification. Building upon these can enable local governments to reduce AM use through farmer training, spatial planning, assistance with disease identification, and stricter regulations. National governments and international organizations could, in turn, assist with disease-free juveniles and vaccines, enforce rigid monitoring of the quantity and quality of AMs used by farmers and the AM residues in the farmed species and in the environment, and promote measures to reduce potential human health risks associated with AMR.

Systematic reviews, sometimes including meta-analyses, are often presented as an approach for identifying healthy and sustainable diets. Here we explore to which extent systematic review protocols have been adopted by studies comparing environmental impacts of foods based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, and to which extent they comply with the PRISMA protocol for transparent reporting. Out of 224 studies screened, seven explicitly define themselves as systematic reviews, and/or claim to carry out meta-analyses. Of these, only one acknowledges a review protocol, while none complies with all the PRISMA criteria. Neither do we believe that reviews of LCA results can comply with all the criteria or carry out meta-analyses, due to underreporting on standard deviations and artificial sample sizes in LCAs. Nonetheless, reviews of food commodities and diets based on LCA results would benefit from better aligning with criteria in systematic review protocols.

Indonesia is the world's second largest producer and third largest consumer of seafood. Fish is therefore essential to the nation, both financially and nutritionally. Overfishing and the effects of climate change will, however, limit future landings of capture fisheries, so any increases in future seafood production will need to come from aquaculture. The ecological effects of aquaculture are dependent upon the choice of species, management, and where it is sited. In the present study we use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate how possible interventions and innovations can mitigate environmental impacts related to the aquaculture sector's growth. The mitigation potential of six interventions were also quantified, namely (1) FCR reductions for whiteleg shrimp, carp, and tilapia; (2) sustainable intensification of milkfish and Asian tiger shrimp polyculture; (3) shifting groupers from whole fish diets to pellets; (4) favoring freshwater finfish over shrimp; (5) renewable electricity; and (6) reduced food waste and improved byproduct utilization. If all six interventions are implemented, we demonstrate that global warming, acidification, eutrophication, land occupation, freshwater use, and fossil energy use could be reduced by between 28% and 49% per unit of fish. The addition of many innovations that could not be quantified in the present study, including innovative feed ingredients, suggest that production could double within the current environmental footprint. This does not, however, satisfy the expected 3.25-fold increase under a business-as-usual scenario, neither does it satisfy the government's growth targets. We therefore also explore possible geographical areas across Indonesia where aquaculture expansions and ecological hotspots may conflict. Conclusively, we advocate more conservative production targets and investment in more sustainable farming practices. To accelerate the implementation of these improvements, it will be central to identify the most cost-effective aquaculture interventions.

Food production is a major driver of global environmental change and the overshoot of planetary sustainability boundaries. Greater affluence in developing nations and human population growth are also increasing demand for all foods, and for animal proteins in particular. Consequently, a growing body of literature calls for the sustainable intensification of food production, broadly defined as producing more using less. Most assessments of the potential for sustainable intensification rely on only one or two indicators, meaning that ecological trade-offs among impact categories that occur as production intensifies may remain unaccounted for. The present study addresses this limitation using life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify six local and global environmental consequences of intensifying aquaculture production in Bangladesh. Production data are from a unique survey of 2,678 farms, and results show multidirectional associations between the intensification of aquaculture production and its environmental impacts. Intensification (measured in material and economic output per unit primary area farmed) is positively correlated with acidification, eutrophication, and ecotoxicological impacts in aquatic ecosystems; negatively correlated with freshwater consumption; and indifferent with regard to global warming and land occupation. As production intensifies, the geographical locations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, acidifying emissions, freshwater consumption, and land occupation shift from the immediate vicinity of the farm to more geographically dispersed telecoupled locations across the globe. Simple changes in fish farming technology and management practices that could help make the global transition to more intensive forms of aquaculture be more sustainable are identified.

Indonesia is the world's second largest seafood producer, but capture fisheries landings have stagnated over the last decade. In response, the Indonesian government has set ambitious targets for expanding the aquaculture sector up to 2030. The present research therefore quantifies environmental impacts using life cycle assessments (LCAs), and some socioeconomic indicators, for six alternative scenarios projecting the growth of Indonesia's aquaculture up to 2030 by Tran et al. (2017). From these results, policy implications are drawn and suggestions for improvements made for gearing the Indonesian government and seafood industry towards blue growth. Ten dominant aquaculture farming systems were characterized and benchmarked using LCA, building upon data collected on Sumatra, Java, Lombok, and Sulawesi between 2014 and 2015. Assuming business as usual up to 2030, the impacts/indicators global warming (3.3-fold increase), acidification (33-fold increase), eutrophication (3.5-fold increase), land-use (3.6-fold increase), freshwater consumption (4-fold increase), energy use (3.4-fold increase), reliance on wild fish (3.4-fold increase), total fish output (3.3-fold increase), and full-time employments (33-fold increase) would increase by three to four-fold, while monetary value would increase almost six-fold. Business as usual alongside several other future scenarios would consequently require more wild fish and land than is physically manageable using current production practices, while still not satisfying the growth targets set by the Indonesian government. A major transformation of the aquaculture industry supported by public policies is therefore needed to avoid extensive environmental damage. Similar studies on future food growth projections are encouraged in order to give more realistic recommendations to policy makers.

Aquatic foods are increasingly being recognized as having an important role to play in an environmentally sustainable and nutritionally sufficient food system. Proposals for increasing aquatic food production often center around species, environments, and ambitious hi-tech solutions that mainly will benefit the 16% of the global population living in high-income countries. Meanwhile, most aquaculture species and systems suffer from large performance gaps, meaning that targeted interventions and investments could significantly boost aquatic food supply and access to nutritious foods without a concomitant increase in environmental footprints. Here we contend that the dialogue around aquatic foods should pay greater attention to identifying and implementing interventions to improve the productivity and environmental performance of low-value commodity species that have been relatively overlooked in this regard to date. We detail a range of available technical and institutional intervention options and evaluate their potential for increasing the output and environmental performance of global aquaculture.

Mangrove forests have been recognized as important regulators of greenhouse gases (GHGs), yet the resulting land use and land-use change (LULUC) emissions have rarely been accounted for in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. The present study therefore presents up-to-date estimates for GHG emissions from mangrove LULUC and applies them to a case study of shrimp farming in Vietnam. To estimate the global warming impacts of mangrove LULUC, a combination of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, the Net Committed Emissions, and the Missed Potential Carbon Sink method were used. A literature review was then conducted to characterize the most critical parameters for calculating carbon losses, missed sequestration, methane fluxes, and dinitrogen monoxide emissions. Our estimated LUC emissions from mangrove deforestation resulted in 124 t CO2 ha(-1) year(-1), assuming IPCC's recommendations of 1 m of soil loss, and 96% carbon oxidation. In addition to this, 1.25 t of carbon would no longer be sequestered annually. Discounted over 20 years, this resulted in total LULUC emissions of 129 t CO2 ha(-1) year(-1) (CV = 0.441, lognormal distribution (ln)). Shrimp farms in the Mekong Delta, however, can today operate for 50 years or more, but are 1.5 m deep (50% oxidation). In addition to this, Asian tiger shrimp farming in mixed mangrove concurrent farms (the only type of shrimp farm that resulted in mangrove deforestation since 2000 in our case study) resulted in 533 kg methane and 1.67 kg dinitrogen monoxide per hectare annually. Consequently, the LULUC GHG emissions resulted in 184 and 282 t CO2-eq t(-1) live shrimp at farm gate, using mass and economic allocation, respectively. These GHG emissions are about an order of magnitude higher than from semi-intensive or intensive shrimp farming systems. Limitations in data quality and quantity also led us to quantify the uncertainties around our emission estimates, resulting in a CV of between 0.4 and 0.5. Our results reinforce the urgency of conserving mangrove forests and the need to quantify uncertainties around LULUC emissions. It also questions mixed mangrove concurrent shrimp farming, where partial removal of mangrove forests is endorsed based upon the benefits of partial mangrove conservation and maintenance of certain ecosystem services. While we recognize that these activities limit the chances of complete removal, our estimates show that large GHG emissions from mangrove LULUC question the sustainability of this type of shrimp farming, especially since mixed mangrove farming only provide 5% of all farmed shrimp produced in Vietnam.

Background: With AMU projected to increase, South East Asia (SEA) is at high risk of experiencing disproportionate health, social, and economic burdens due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Our objective was to identify factors influencing AMR in SEA’s food system and places for intervention by integrating the perspectives of experts from the region to inform policy and management decisions.

Materials and methods: We conducted two 6.5 h workshops and two 90-min interviews involving 18 AMR and other disciplinary experts from human, animal, and environment sectors who brainstormed the factors influencing AMR and identified leverage points (places) for intervention. Transcripts and workshop materials were coded for factors and their connections and transcribed into a causal loop diagram (CLD). Thematic analysis described AMR dynamics in SEA’s food system and leverage points for intervention. The CLD and themes were confirmed via participant feedback.

Results: Participants constructed a CLD of AMR in the SEA food system that contained 98 factors interlinked by 362 connections. CLD factors reflected eight sub-areas of the SEA food system (e.g., government). Seven themes [e.g., antimicrobial and pesticide use and AMR spread (n = 40 quotes)], six “overarching factors” that impact the entire AMR system [e.g., the drive to survive (n = 12 quotes)], and 10 places for intervention that target CLD factors (n = 5) and overarching factors (n = 2) emerged from workshop discussions.

Conclusion: The participant derived CLD of factors influencing AMR in the SEA food system demonstrates that AMR is a product of numerous interlinked actions taken across the One Health spectrum and that finding solutions is no simple task. Developing the model enabled the identification of potentially promising leverage points across human, animal, and environment sectors that, if comprehensively targeted using multi-pronged interventions, could evoke system wide changes that mitigate AMR. Even targeting some leverage points for intervention, such as increasing investments in research and capacity building, and setting and enforcing regulations to control antimicrobial supply, demand, and use could, in turn, shift mindsets that lead to changes in more difficult to alter leverage points, such as redefining the profit-driven intent that drives system behavior in ways that transform AMU and sustainably mitigate AMR.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global crisis with long-term and unpredictable health, social and economic impacts, with which climate change is likely to interact. Understanding how to govern AMR amidst evolving climatic changes is critical. Scenario planning offers a suitable approach. By envisioning alternative futures, stakeholders more effectively can identify consequences, anticipate problems, and better determine how to intervene. This study explored future worlds and actions that may successfully address AMR in a changing climate in a high-income country, using Sweden as the case.

Methods: We conducted online scenario-building workshops and interviews with eight experts who explored: (1) how promising interventions (taxation of antimicrobials at point of sale, and infection prevention measures) could each combat AMR in 2050 in Sweden given our changing climate; and (2) actions to take starting in 2030 to ensure success in 2050. Transcripts were thematically analyzed to produce a narrative of participant validated alternative futures.

Results: Recognizing AMR to be a global problem requiring global solutions, participants looked beyond Sweden to construct three alternative futures: (1) “Tax Burn Out” revealed taxation of antimicrobials as a low-impact intervention that creates inequities and thus would fail to address AMR without other interventions, such as infection prevention measures. (2) “Addressing the Basics” identified infection prevention measures as highly impactful at containing AMR in 2050 because they would contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which would be essential to tackling inequities underpinning AMR and climate change, and help to stabilize climate-induced mass migration and conflicts; and (3) ”Siloed Nations” described a movement toward nationalism and protectionism that would derail the “Addressing the Basics” scenario, threatening health and wellbeing of all. Several urgent actions were identified to combat AMR long-term regardless which future un-folds, such as global collaboration, and a holistic approach where AMR and climate change are addressed as interlinked issues.

Conclusion: Our participatory scenario planning approach enabled participants from different sectors to create shared future visions and identify urgent actions to take that hinge on global collaboration, addressing AMR and climate change together, and achieving the SDGs to combat AMR under a changing climate.

Introduction

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global crisis that evolves from a complex system of factors. Understanding what factors interact is key to finding solutions. Our objective was to identify the factors influencing AMR in the European food system and places to intervene.

Materials and methods

We conducted two workshops involving participants with diverse perspectives to identify the factors influencing AMR and leverage points (places) to target interventions. Transcripts were open coded for factors and connections, then transcribed into Vensim 8.0.4 to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) and compute the number of feedback loops. Thematic analysis followed to describe AMR dynamics in Europe’s food system and places for intervention. The CLD and themes were confirmed via participant feedback.

Results

Seventeen participants representing human, animal and agricultural sectors identified 91 CLD factors and 331 connections. Seven themes (e.g., social and economic conditions) describing AMR dynamics in Europe’s food system, five ‘overarching factors’ that impact the entire CLD system (e.g., leadership) and fourteen places for intervention (e.g., consumer demand) emerged from workshop discussions. Most leverage points fell on highly networked feedback loops suggesting that intervening at these places may create unpredictable consequences.

Conclusions

Our study produced a CLD of factors influencing AMR in Europe’s food system that implicates sectors across the One Health spectrum. The high connectivity between the CLD factors described by participants and our finding that factors are connected with many feedback mechanisms underscores the complexity of the AMR problem and the challenge with finding long-term solutions. Identifying factors and feedbacks helped identify relevant leverage points in the system. Some actions, such as government’s setting AMU standards may be easier to implement. These actions in turn can support multi-pronged actions that can help redefine the vision, values and goals of the system to sustainably tackle AMR.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an escalating global crisis with serious health, social, and economic consequences. Building social-ecological system resilience to reduce AMR and mitigate its impacts is critical.

Objective: The aim of this study is to compare and assess interventions that address AMR across the One Health spectrum and determine what actions will help to build social and ecological capacity and readiness to sustainably tackle AMR.

Methods: We will apply social-ecological resilience theory to AMR in an explicit One Health context using mixed methods and identify interventions that address AMR and its key pressure antimicrobial use (AMU) identified in the scientific literature and in the gray literature using a web-based survey. Intervention impacts and the factors that challenge or contribute to the success of interventions will be determined, triangulated against expert opinions in participatory workshops and complemented using quantitative time series analyses. We will then identify indicators using regression modeling, which can predict national and regional AMU or AMR dynamics across animal and human health. Together, these analyses will help to quantify the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of AMR in the European and Southeast Asian food system contexts that are developed by diverse stakeholders in participatory workshops. Then, using these CLDs, the long-term impacts of selected interventions on AMR will be explored under alternate future scenarios via simulation modeling and participatory workshops. A publicly available learning platform housing information about interventions on AMR from a One Health perspective will be developed to help decision makers identify promising interventions for application in their jurisdictions.

Results: To date, 669 interventions have been identified in the scientific literature, 891 participants received a survey invitation, and 4 expert feedback and 4 model-building workshops have been conducted. Time series analysis, regression modeling of national and regional indicators of AMR dynamics, and scenario modeling activities are anticipated to be completed by spring 2022. Ethical approval has been obtained from the University of Waterloo's Office of Research Ethics (ethics numbers 40519 and 41781).

Conclusions: This paper provides an example of how to study complex problems such as AMR, which require the integration of knowledge across sectors and disciplines to find sustainable solutions. We anticipate that our study will contribute to a better understanding of what actions to take and in what contexts to ensure long-term success in mitigating AMR and its impact and provide useful tools (eg, CLDs, simulation models, and public databases of compiled interventions) to guide management and policy decisions.

The global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) requires coordinated actions by and across different sectors. Increasing attention at the global and national Levels has Led to different strategies to tackle the challenge. The diversity of possible actions to address AMR is currently not well understood from a One Health perspective. AMR-Intervene, an interdisciplinary social-ecological framework, describes interventions to tackle AMR in terms of six components: (i) core information about the publication; (ii) social system; (iii) bio-ecological system; (iv) triggers and goals; (v) implementation and governance; and (vi) assessment. AMR-Intervene provides a broadly applicable framework, which can inform the design, implementation, assessment and reporting of interventions to tackle AMR and, in turn, enable faster uptake of successful interventions to build societal resilience to AMR.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is among the most pressing One Health issues. While interventions and policies with various targets and goals have been implemented, evidence about factors underpinning success and failure of interventions in different sectors is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify characteristics of AMR interventions that increase their capacity to impact AMR. This study focuses on AMR interventions targeting E. coli.

Methods: We used the AMR-Intervene framework to extract descriptions of the social and ecological systems of interventions to determine factors contributing to their success.

Results: We identified 52 scientific publications referring to 42 unique E. coli AMR interventions. We mainly identified interventions implemented in high-income countries (36/42), at the national level (16/42), targeting primarily one sector of society (37/42) that was mainly the human sector (25/42). Interventions were primarily funded by governments (38/42). Most intervention targeted a low leverage point in the AMR system, (36/42), and aimed to change the epidemiology of AMR (14/42). Among all included publications, 55% (29/52) described at least one success factor or obstacle (29/52) and 19% (10/52) identified at least one success factor and one obstacle. Most reported success factors related to communication between the actors and stakeholders and the role of media, and stressed the importance of collaboration between disciplines and external partners. Described obstacles covered data quality, access to data and statistical analyses, and the validity of the results.

Conclusions: Overall, we identified a lack of diversity regarding interventions. In addition, most published E. coli interventions were poorly described with limited evidence of the factors that contributed to the intervention success or failure. Design and reporting guidelines would help to improve reporting quality and provide a valuable tool for improving the science of AMR interventions.

Pangasius production in Vietnam is widely known as a success story in aquaculture, the fastest growing global food system because of its tremendous expansion by volume, value and the number of international markets to which Pangasius has been exported in recent years. While certification schemes are becoming significant features of international fish trade and marketing, an increasing number of Pangasius producers have followed at least one of the certification schemes recognised by international markets to incorporate environmental and social sustainability practices in aquaculture, typically the Pangasius Aquaculture Dialogue (PAD) scheme certified by the Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC). An assessment of the environmental benefit of applying certification schemes on Pangasius production, however, is still needed. This article compared the environmental impact of ASC-certified versus non-ASC certified intensive Pangasius aquaculture, using a statistically supported LCA. We focused on both resource-related (water, land and total resources) and emissions-related (global warming, acidification, freshwater and marine eutrophication) categories. The ASC certification scheme was shown to be a good approach for determining adequate environmental sustainability, especially concerning emissions related categories, in Pangasius production. However, the non-ASC certified farms, due to the large spread, the impact (e.g., water resources and freshwater eutrophication) was possibly lower for a certain farm. However, this result was not generally prominent. Further improvements in intensive Pangasius production to inspire certification schemes are proposed, e.g., making the implementation of certification schemes more affordable, well-oriented and facilitated; reducing consumed feed amounts and of the incorporated share in fishmeal, especially domestic fishmeal, etc. However, their implementation should be vetted with key stakeholders to assess their feasibility.

This paper explores the seafood sector in Indonesia, using fish supply-demand modeling, with special focus on the growing role of aquaculture in the country's food portfolio. The paper describes six scenarios for future fish supply demand dynamics and examines the role of aquaculture growth in fish supply in Indonesia. A business as usual scenario (BAU) assumed exogenous variables of our supply-demand model following historical trends. Five alternative scenarios explored the implications of stagnant capture fisheries; export-oriented growth of aquaculture; domestic-oriented aquaculture growth; slow growth of aquaculture sector; and disease outbreaks to key aquaculture species. The BAU scenario projected that fish supply and demand in Indonesia continues to increase over time and strong aquaculture growth is critical to meet increasing demand for fish. Stagnant capture fisheries resulted in increasing fish prices and decreasing fish consumption. Export-oriented aquaculture growth benefitted fish supply and exports, but also helped lower domestic prices and thus increase consumption. An emphasis on domestic aquaculture commodities increased fish supply, providing best domestic consumption outcomes and lower consumer prices. Slow aquaculture growth reduced fish supply and led to undesirable increases in domestic prices and decreasing domestic consumption as a consequence. Disease outbreaks in shrimp and carp aquaculture resulted in a short-term reduction in aquaculture output and increasing fish prices, lowering fish consumption.

Aquaculture is a crucial sector for Egyptian food production, providing a cheap source of animal protein while securing income and employment for a substantial part Egypt's population. Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) is the most commonly produced fish, usually farmed in earthen ponds around the Northern Delta Lakes. A common practice among farms is to fertilize ponds with chicken manure (CM) in order to increase nutrient levels and promote phytoplankton, consumed by the fish. However, with reports of use of antibiotics in Egypt's poultry sector, and that CM contains residues of antibiotics, antibiotic resistant pathogens and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are production benefits large enough to compensate a potential health hazard?

Using production data from 501 aquaculture farms and fish pond sediment from 28 ponds we evaluated potential benefits in yields and profitability for farms using CM for fertilization, and used qPCRs to screen sediments for three antibiotic resistance genes coding for resistance to the most commonly used antibiotics in the poultry sector. The analysis showed no significant benefits to fish yields or profitability in farms where CM was applied, but a risk of significantly increased nutrient loads. Meanwhile, we detected increased abundances of tetA and tetW resistance genes in fish pond sediment where CM was applied. With the risk of disseminating ARGs and causing eutrophication of local waterways, we recommend that Egyptian tilapia pond farmers refrain from using CM and adopt best management practices for increasing farm profitability in order to to reduce environmental and health hazards.

Purpose: With antibiotic resistance (ABR) portrayed as an increasing burden to human health, this study reviews how and to what extent toxicological impacts from antibiotic use are included in LCAs and supplement this with two novel approaches to include ABR, a consequence of antibiotic use, into the LCA framework.

Methods: We review available LCA studies that deal with toxicological aspects of antibiotics to evaluate how these impacts from antibiotics have been characterized. Then, we present two novel approaches for including ABR-related impacts in life cycle impact assessments (LCIAs). The first approach characterizes the potential for ABR enrichment in the environmental compartment as a mid-point indicator, based on minimum selective concentrations for pathogenic bacteria. The second approach attributes human health impacts as an endpoint indictor, using quantitative relationships between the use of antibiotics and human well-being.

Results and discussion: Our findings show that no LCA study to date have accounted for impacts related to ABR. In response, we show that our novel mid-point indicator approach could address this by allowing ABR impacts to be characterized for environmental compartments. We also establish cause-effect pathways between antibiotic use, ABR, and human well-being that generate results which are comparable with USEtox and most endpoint impact assessment approaches for human toxicology.

Conclusions: Our proposed methods show that currently overlooked impacts from ABR enrichment in the environment could be captured within the LCA framework as a robust characterization methodology built around the established impact model USEtox. Substantial amounts of currently unavailable data are, however, needed to calculate emissions of antibiotics into the environment, to develop minimum selective concentrations for non-pathogenic bacteria, and to quantify potential human health impacts from AB use.

The future demand for fish and other aquatic foods requires the sustainable intensification of related production systems. However, policy and investment decisions for the sustainable intensification of aquaculture systems are usually hindered by the lack of benchmarking data about their actual sustainability performance, often resulting in poorly developed and implemented interventions that ignore potential sustainability trade-offs. This is a reality in many of the leading aquaculture producers in the developing world like Egypt. In this study we analyzed farm-level data from 402 aquaculture producers in the Kafr El Sheikh governorate in Egypt, to characterize and benchmark the performance of tilapia production systems against key sustainability outcomes. For the analysis we used a combination of statistical tools such as ordinary least square regressions, simultaneous quantile regressions and propensity score matching. We focussed on how the production characteristics and practices of different tilapia production systems intersect with economic, food security, and environmental outcomes that cover multiple dimensions of sustainability. We found that differences in these production characteristics and practices were significantly associated with the sustainability performance of tilapia production systems. In particular, our results show that yields in monocultural systems (10,460.5 ton/ha) were significantly higher than in polyculture systems (8404.7 ton/ha). Furthermore, despite the generally positive economic, food security, and environmental outcomes of several of the studied systems, some trade-offs emerge both between and within these sustainability dimensions.

Micronutrient deficiencies constitute a pressing public health concern, especially in developing countries. As a dense source of bioavailable nutrients, aquatic foods can help alleviate such deficiencies. Developing aquaculture that provides critical micronutrients without sacrificing the underlying environmental resources that support these food production systems is therefore essential. Here, we address these dual challenges by optimizing nutrient supply while constraining the environmental impacts from aquaculture. Using life cycle assessment and nutritional data from Indonesia, a top aquaculture producer, we sought to identify aquaculture systems that increase micronutrient supplies and reduce environmental impacts (e.g., habitat destruction, freshwater pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions). Aquaculture systems in Indonesia vary more by environmental impacts (e.g. three order of magnitude for fresh water usage) than by nutritional differences (approximately +/- 50% differences from mean relative nutritional score). Nutritional-environmental tradeoffs exist, with no single system offering a complete nutrition-environment win-win. We also find that previously proposed future aquaculture paths sub optimally balance nutritional and environmental impacts. Instead, we identify optimized aquaculture production scenarios for 2030 with nutrient per gram densities 105-320% that of business-as-usual production and with environmental impacts as low as 25% of those of business-as-usual. In these scenarios Pangasius fish (Pangasius hypophthalmus) ponds prove desirable due to their low environmental impacts, but average relative nutrient score. While the environmental impacts of the three analyzed brackish water systems range from average to high compared to other aquaculture systems, their nutritional attributes render them necessary when maximizing all nutrients except vitamin A. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) ponds also proved essential in maximizing zinc and omega n-3, while Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) cages were necessary in optimizing the production of calcium and vitamin A. These optimal aquaculture strategies also reduce business-as-usual demand for wild fish-based feed by 0-30% and mangrove expansion by 0-75% with no additional expansion into inland open waters and freshwater ponds. As aquaculture production expands globally, optimization presents a powerful opportunity to reduce malnutrition rates at reduced environmental impacts. The proposed reorientation promotes UN sustainable development goals 2 (zero hunger), 3 (health), 13 (climate action) and 14 (life under water) and requires concerted and targeted policy changes.

Aquatic foods are a critical source of human nutrition in many developing countries. As a result, declines in wild-caught fish landings threaten nutritionally vulnerable populations. Aquaculture presents an opportunity to meet local demand, but it also places pressure on natural resource inputs and causes a range of environmental impacts. Here, we examine whether current aquaculture systems in Bangladesh can be reoriented to address prevailing nutritional deficiencies while minimizing these environmental impacts. Current fish farming practices, even when optimized, cannot fully supply the same essential micronutrient densities of zinc, iron and calcium as wild-caught fish. However, when the proportion of highly nutrient-dense small indigenous fish species (SIS) was increased to at least 30% of the total output in any of the 14 aquaculture production systems analysed, these systems were able to meet or surpass the nutrient densities of average wild-capture fisheries. Extensive aquaculture systems that co-produce fish and rice had the lowest environmental burdens in six out of seven metrics examined when the composition of all aquaculture systems was modified to include 50% SIS. Nutrition-sensitive aquaculture that provides greater human health benefits and minimizes environmental impacts is a key societal challenge that requires targeted interventions and supportive policies. Aquaculture production systems in Bangladesh were configured to optimize the supply of micronutrients while minimizing environmental impacts. Increased production of small indigenous species enabled nutrient densities of farmed fish to match those of wild-caught fish, and systems that co-produce fish and rice had the lowest environmental burdens.

The industrialized world has entered a new era of widespread automation, and although this may create long-term gains in economic productivity and wealth accumulation, many professions are expected to disappear during the ensuing shift, leading to potentially significant disruptions in labor markets and associated socioeconomic difficulties. Food production, like many other industrial sectors, has also undergone a century of mechanization, having moved toward increasingly large-scale monoculture production-especially in developed economies-with higher yields but detrimental environmental impacts on a global scale. Certain characteristics of the food sector and its products cast doubts on whether future automation will influence it in the same ways as in other sectors. We conceptualize a model of future food production within the socioeconomic conditions created by widespread automation. We ideate that despite immediate shocks to the economy, in the long run higher productivity can free up human activity to be channeled toward more interactive, skill-intensive food production systems, where communal efforts can reduce industrial reliance, diversify farming, and reconnect people to the biosphere-a realization of human well-being that resembles the classical philosophical ideal of Eudaimonia. We explore food production concepts, such as communal gardens and polyculture, and the economic conditions and institutions needed to underwrite them [e.g., a universal basic income (UBI)]. However, arguments can be raised as to why social-ecological systems would benefit from more labor-intensive food production. In this paper we: (1) discuss the current state of the food system and the need to reform it in light of its environmental and social impacts; (2) present automation as a lever that could move society toward more sustainable food production; (3) highlight the beneficial attributes of a Eudaimonian model; and (4) discuss the potential challenges to its implementation. Our purpose is to highlight a possible outcome that future research will need to refine and expand based on evidence and successful case studies. The ultimate aim is to promote a food system that can provide food security while staying within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries, produce more nutritious diets, enhance social capital, and reconnect communities with the biosphere.

Omega-3 EPA and DHA fatty acids are vital for human health, but current human nutritional requirements are greater than supply. This nutrient gap is poised to increase as demand increases and the abundance of aquatic foods and the amount of omega-3 they contain may dwindle due to climate change and overfishing. Identifying and mitigating loss and inefficiencies across the global aquatic supply chain has great potential for narrowing this nutrient gap. Here, using an optimization model, we show that omega-3 supply to humans could potentially increase by as much as 50% (reaching 630 kt y⁻¹) compared to present baseline by shifting feed inputs to produce species that have the highest omega-3 content per feed input (i.e. carp and crustaceans), diverting other production flows towards direct wild fish consumption, improving byproduct utilization, and reducing waste at the retail and consumer level. We then discuss the implications of our findings by prioritizing policies and identifying demand- and supply-side interventions to realize these ambitious changes. This work emphasizes the urgency needed in managing aquatic resources towards greater utilization of resources and highlights the extent to which even partial adaptation of the measures we propose can have on narrowing the present and future nutrient gap as novel alternative sources of omega-3 become available on a larger scale.

Development of new biocides has dominated human responses to evolution of antibiotic and pesticide resistance. Increasing and uniform biocide use, the spread of resistance genes, and the lack of new classes of compounds indicate the importance of navigating toward more sustainable coevolutionary dynamics between human culture and species that evolve resistance. To inform this challenge, we introduce the concept of coevolutionary governance and propose three priorities for its implementation: (i) new norms and mental models for lowering use, (ii) diversifying practices to reduce directional selection, and (iii) investment in collective action institutions to govern connectivity. We highlight the availability of solutions that facilitate broader sustainable development, which for antibiotic resistance include improved sanitation and hygiene, strong health systems, and decreased meat consumption.

The dominant sustainable seafood narrative is one where developed world markets catalyze practice improvements by fisheries and aquaculture producers that enhance ocean health. The narrow framing of seafood sustainability in terms of aquaculture or fisheries management and ocean health has contributed to the omission of these important food production systems from the discussion on global food system sustainability. This omission is problematic. Seafood makes critical contributions to food and nutrition security, particularly in low income countries, and is often a more sustainable and nutrient rich source of animal sourced-food than terrestrial meat production. We argue that to maximize the positive contributions that seafood can make to sustainable food systems, the conventional narratives that prioritize seafood's role in promoting 'ocean health' need to be reframed and cover a broader set of environmental and social dimensions of sustainability. The focus of the narrative also needs to move from a producer-centric to a 'whole chain' perspective that includes greater inclusion of the later stages with a focus on food waste, by-product utilization and consumption. Moreover, seafood should not be treated as a single aggregated item in sustainability assessments. Rather, it should be recognized as a highly diverse set of foods, with variable environmental impacts, edible yield rates and nutritional profiles. Clarifying discussions around seafood will help to deepen the integration of fisheries and aquaculture into the global agenda on sustainable food production, trade and consumption, and assist governments, private sector actors, NGOs and academics alike in identifying where improvements can be made.

Finding ways to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius is urgent and will need a portfolio of solutions. Seaweeds are marine photosynthetic organisms that humans harvest either from the wild or farm, to be used in many applications and providing various ecosystem services. Large scale farming of seaweeds for absorbing carbon has lately been promoted as a climate “fix”. The major shortcomings of this argument relate to the idea that a carbon sink function should exist through carbon accumulation in seaweed biomass simultaneously as seaweeds are consumed as food by humans, fed to animals, or used in many alternative applications. This carbon instead enters the fast carbon cycle and does not provide any “carbon sink” function. Radical suggestions of intentionally transfer of farmed seaweeds to the deep-sea to accomplish a longer removal are highly questionable from feasibility, economic, ecosystem effects and ethical resource use perspectives. Development of “ocean forests” for carbon capturing through farming should not be compared to forests on land as these provide carbon removal from the atmosphere at sufficiently long time scales to be qualified as carbon sequestration - thus making a difference related to reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Seaweeds can, however, play a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the overall food system through carbon offset - i.e. if replacing food, feed, and/or materials that have larger carbon footprints. The fate/cycling of carbon as particulate and dissolved matter from both farmed and wild seaweeds, are however not fully understood, especially with respect to pathways and time scales relevant for carbon removal/storage. Another potential pathway for their role in decarbonization may be through reducing enteric methane emissions from ruminants and also through bioenergy production. More research is, however, needed for understanding the contributions from such interventions. Presenting seaweed farming as a quick fix for the climate risks facilitating misdirected investments (for carbon abatement solutions) and reducing demand for specific research and technological development that will be needed for increasing our understanding about seaweeds’ contribution to food/feed systems and additional sustainability services and benefits. 

Social-ecological systems conceptualise how social human systems and ecological natural systems are intertwined. In this Personal View, we define the scope and applicability of social-ecological resilience to antimicrobial resistance. Resilience to antimicrobial resistance corresponds to the capacity to maintain the societal benefits of antimicrobial use and One Health systems' performance in the face of the evolutionary behaviour of microorganisms in response to antimicrobial use. Social-ecological resilience provides an appropriate framework to make sense of the disruptive impacts resulting from the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance; capture the diversity of strategies needed to tackle antimicrobial resistance and to live with it; understand the conditions that underpin the success or failure of interventions; and appreciate the need for adaptive and coevolutionary governance. Overall, resilience thinking is essential to improve understanding of how human societies dynamically can cope with, adapt, and transform to the growing global challenge of antimicrobial resistance.

Indonesia is an archipelagic country with abundant marine wealth that makes it the world's second largest producer of fish after China. While most of Indonesia's capture marine fisheries (80%) are consumed domestically, around 90% of blue swimming crab (BSC) products are exported, mainly in cans. This makes up almost half of all BSC products on the global market, with the United States and the European Union being the main importers. We carried out a life cycle assessment (LCA) of canned BSC products from Indonesia. Our LCA evaluated the production of “one tonne of canned BSC” at market as a functional unit (FU), with a cradle-to-market system boundary, encompassing wild capture, preprocessing, processing, and distribution to the port of destination at home and abroad. The processing stage was found to be the highest contributor (hotspot) for most of the impact categories considered, mainly due to the use of tin cans for packaging. Despite producing less by-catch, BSC caught with traps resulted in around threefold greater global warming impact per FU than those caught using nets. We also concluded that BSC meat produced in Java is environmentally preferable to that from Sumatra, as most of the shells were sold as coproducts. In addition to recycling and substitution of packaging materials, environmental improvements can also be obtained by increasing the number of shell-processing facilities outside Java. The results of this study can be used by the Indonesian government to develop more sustainable practices to avoid overexploitation of BSC and limit its environmental impacts.

Among the species caught by small-scale fisheries in Bangladesh, hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) is the most important by volume and of great cultural importance. Hilsa fishing boats have over the last decade been mechanized, enabling longer trips and larger hauls. This development has, however, also resulted in increased fishing pressure and increased reliance on fossil fuels. This study estimates the fuel use intensity (FUI) of hilsa fishing, calculated as fuel per unit landed mass of hilsa at one of the main landing stations (Chairman ghat) in the coastal area of Noakhali district, Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from three types of artisanal fishing boats commonly used in hilsa fisheries, namely small boats (Choto/Khosa tempo), medium boats (Tempo), and large boats. Our results show a higher fuel use intensity in small boats (750 +/- 468 l t-1), compared to medium (495 +/- 270 l t-1) and large boats (576 +/- 365 l t-1). Considering the gross catch and total fuel consumption of all boats, the absolute FUI is estimated at 463 l t-1. Thus, the FUI of hilsa fishing is slightly lower than the average for global fisheries FUI (489 l t-1). In terms of greenhouse gas (GHG), not including other lifecycle inputs (e.g. infrastructure, ice, supply chain etc.) than fuel (i.e. diesel, LPG, and wood), the average global warming impact is 1.72 +/- 0.34 tonnes CO2-eq. t-1 overall catch. This study provides a baseline estimate for FUI and GHG emissions from contemporary hilsa fishing, and proposes solutions for addressing environmental issues and improving the overall performance of the sector.

The biosphere crisis requires changes to existing business practices. We ask how corporations can become sustainability leaders, when constrained by multiple barriers to collaboration for biosphere stewardship. We describe how scientists motivated, inspired and engaged with ten of the world’s largest seafood companies, in a collaborative process aimed to enable science-based and systemic transformations (2015–2021). CEOs faced multiple industry crises in 2015 that incentivized novel approaches. New scientific insights, an invitation to collaborate, and a bold vision of transformative change towards ocean stewardship, created new opportunities and direction. Co-creation of solutions resulted in new knowledge and trust, a joint agenda for action, new capacities, international recognition, formalization of an organization, increased policy influence, time-bound goals, and convergence of corporate change. Independently funded scientists helped remove barriers to cooperation, provided means for reflection, and guided corporate strategies and actions toward ocean stewardship. By 2021, multiple individuals exercised leadership and the initiative had transitioned from preliminary and uncomfortable conversations, to a dynamic, operational organization, with capacity to perform global leadership in the seafood industry. Mobilizing transformational agency through learning, collaboration, and innovation represents a cultural evolution with potential to redirect and accelerate corporate action, to the benefit of business, people and the planet.