In the EU, including Sweden, organic farming is seen as a promising pathway for sustainable production, protecting human health and animal welfare, and conserving the environment. Despite positive developments in recent decades, expanding organic farming to the Swedish national target of 30% of farmland under organic production remains challenging. In this study, we developed two scenarios to evaluate the role of organic farming in the broader context of Swedish food systems: (i) baseline trend scenario (Base), and (ii) sustainable food system scenario (Sust). Base describes a future where organic farming is implemented alongside the current consumption, production and waste patterns, while Sust describes a future where organic farming is implemented alongside a range of sustainable food system initiatives. These scenarios are coupled with several variants of organic area: (i) current 20% organic area, (ii) the national target of 30% organic area by 2030, and (iii) 50% organic area by 2050 for Sust. We applied the ‘FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use and Energy) Calculator’ to assess the evolution of the Swedish food system from 2000 to 2050 and evaluate land use, emissions and self-sufficiency impacts under these scenarios. Our findings show that expanding organic farming in the Base scenarios increases the use of cropland and agricultural emissions by 2050 compared to the 2010 reference year. However, cropland use and emissions are reduced in the Sust scenario, due to dietary changes, reduction of food waste and improved agricultural productivity. This implies that there is room for organic farming and the benefits it provides, e.g. the use of fewer inputs and improved animal welfare in a sustainable food system. However, changing towards organic agriculture is only of advantage when combined with transformative strategies to promote environmental sustainability across multiple sections, such as changed consumption, better production and food waste practices.

Food system technologies (FSTs) are being developed to accelerate the transformation towards sustainable food systems. Here we conducted a systematic scoping review that accounts for multiple dimensions of sustainability to describe the extent, range and nature of peer-reviewed literature that assesses the sustainability performance of four FSTs: plant-based alternatives, vertical farming, food deliveries and blockchain technology. Included literature had a dominant focus on environmental sustainability and less on public health and socio-economic sustainability. Gaps in the literature include empirical assessments on the sustainability of blockchain technology, plant-based seafood alternatives, public health consequences of food deliveries and socio-economic consequences of vertical farming. The development of a holistic sustainability assessment framework that demonstrates the impact of deploying FSTs is needed to guide investments in and the development of sustainable food innovation. Gaps in the literature include empirical sustainability assessments of blockchain technology and plant-based seafood alternatives, public health consequences of food deliveries and socio-economic consequences of vertical farming.

Plant-based alternatives (PBAs) are increasingly becoming part of diets. Here, we investigate the environmental, nutritional, and economic implications of replacing animal-source foods (ASFs) with PBAs or whole foods (WFs) in the Swedish diet. Utilising two functional units (mass and energy), we model vegan, vegetarian, and flexitarian scenarios, each based on PBAs or WFs. Our results demonstrate that PBA-rich diets substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions (30–52%), land use (20–45%), and freshwater use (14–27%), with the vegan diet showing the highest reduction potential. We observe comparable environmental benefits when ASFs are replaced with WFs, underscoring the need to reduce ASF consumption. PBA scenarios meet most Nordic Nutrition Recommendations, except for vitamin B12, vitamin D and selenium, while enhancing iron, magnesium, folate, and fibre supply and decreasing saturated fat. Daily food expenditure slightly increases in the PBA scenarios (3–5%) and decreases in the WF scenarios (4–17%), with PBA diets being 10–20% more expensive than WF diets. Here we show, that replacing ASFs with PBAs can reduce the environmental impact of current Swedish diets while meeting most nutritional recommendations, but slightly increases food expenditure. We recommend prioritising ASF reduction and diversifying WFs and healthier PBAs to accommodate diverse consumer preferences during dietary transitions.

To reduce environmental burdens from the food system, a shift towards environmentally sustainable diets is needed. In this study, the environmental impacts of the Swedish diet were benchmarked relative to global environmental boundaries suggested by the EAT-Lancet Commission. To identify local environmental concerns not captured by the global boundaries, relationships between the global EAT-Lancet variables and the national Swedish Environmental Objectives (SEOs) were analysed and additional indicators for missing aspects were identified. The results showed that the environmental impacts caused by the average Swedish diet exceeded the global boundaries for greenhouse gas emissions, cropland use and application of nutrients by two- to more than four-fold when the boundaries were scaled to per capita level. With regard to biodiversity, the impacts caused by the Swedish diet transgressed the boundary by six-fold. For freshwater use, the diet performed well within the boundary. Comparison of global and local indicators revealed that the EAT-Lancet variables covered many aspects included in the SEOs, but that these global indicators are not always of sufficiently fine resolution to capture local aspects of environmental sustainability, such as eutrophication impacts. To consider aspects and impact categories included in the SEO but not currently covered by the EAT-Lancet variables, such as chemical pollution and acidification, additional indicators and boundaries are needed. This requires better inventory data on e.g., pesticide use and improved traceability for imported foods.

In an analysis of food system sustainability challenges and solutions among Swedish food system actors using Q-methodology, five perspectives were identified. One of the main three perspectives placed the highest priority on reduced meat consumption, food waste, and climate impact in agriculture, but downplayed strategies highlighted in the national food strategy and social aspects, and can be interpreted as a diagnostic climate mitigation-oriented perspective that does not reflect current negotiated policy processes or ‘softer’ values of food. In an alternative regenerative perspective, industrialized large-scale farming and lack of internalization of external costs were regarded as the main problems, and diversity, soil health, and organic farming as the main solutions. Proponents of a third perspective regarded phasing out fossil fuels, increased profitability of companies, increased meat production, and self-sufficiency as high priorities. These contrasting views can be a major barrier to transforming the Swedish food system. However, a number of entry points for change (i.e. aspects highly important for some and neutral for others) were identified, including focusing on healthy diets and increased production of fruit and vegetables. Focusing on these can build trust among stakeholders before moving to discussions about the larger and more sensitive systemic changes needed.

Dietary guidelines are a primary tool for promoting healthier and more sustainable diets. Despite several examples of dietary guidelines that consider - to various degrees - aspects of environmental sustainability, there is currently no framework that systematically incorporates environmental sustainability as a primary consideration. We present a five-step framework for developing environmentally sustainable dietary guidelines that would simultaneously meet nutritional requirements while staying within environmental boundaries. The steps comprise: 1) determining an average healthy diet for different population groups and criteria for healthy diets; 2) identifying relevant environmental aspects and establishing corresponding boundaries; 3) identifying systemic effects and crucial sustainability aspects; 4) altering the average diet to meet environmental goals and resolve trade-offs between environmental and nutritional goals; and 5) formulating sustainable food-based dietary guidelines. To exemplify the framework, we pilot it in the Swedish context, but it could be utilised for any other country.

Despite the growing knowledge that food system solutions should account for interactions and drivers across scales, broader societal debate on how to solve food system challenges is often focused on two dichotomous perspectives and associated solutions: either more localized food systems or greater global coordination of food systems. The debate has found problematic expressions in contemporary challenges, prompting us to revisit the role that resilience thinking can play when faced with complex crises that increase uncertainty. Here we identify four ‘aching points’ facing food systems that are central points of tension in the local–global debate. We apply the seven principles of resilience to these aching points to reframe the solution space to one that embeds resilience into food systems’ management and governance at all scales, supporting transformative change towards sustainable food systems.