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  • 1. Eglite, Elvita
    et al.
    Lavrinovics, Aigars
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia.
    Aigars, Juris
    Poikane, Rita
    Nutrient turnover at the hypoxic boundary: flux measurements and model representation for the bottom water environment of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea2014In: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 711-735Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Experimental studies of intact sediment cores from the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea, were conducted to estimate the response of sediment nutrient fluxes to various near-bottom water oxygen conditions. The experiment was performed in the laboratory using a batch-mode assay type system on the sediment cores held at 4 degrees C and oxygen concentrations maintained at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mg l(-1). The results from the experiment were subsequently used to optimise the fit of the sediment denitrification sub-model of the Gulf of Riga basin. Sedimentwater fluxes of phosphate were low and directed out of the sediments under all treatments, demonstrating a general decreasing tendency with increasing near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The sediment-water fluxes of ammonium and nitrate + nitrite demonstrated opposing trends: ammonium fluxes decreased whereas nitrate + nitrite fluxes increased with rising near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The modelled fluxes agreed well with the measured ones, with correlation coefficients of 0.75, 0.63 and 0.88 for ammonium, nitrate + nitrite and phosphate fluxes respectively. The denitrification rate in sediments was simulated at oxygen concentrations from -2 to 10 mg l(-1). At oxygen concentrations < 2 mg l(-1) the modelled denitrification was sustained by nitrate transport from water overlying the sediments. With increasing oxygen concentrations the simulated denitrification switched from the process fuelled by nitrates originating from the overlying water (D-w) to one sustained by nitrates originating from the coupled sedimentary nitrification - denitrification (D-n). D-n reached its maximum at an oxygen concentration of 5 mg l(-1).

  • 2.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Eilola, Kari
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-20062012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 534-548Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

  • 3.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Savchuck, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Müller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Key processes in the coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling of the Baltic Sea2017In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 134, no 3, p. 301-317Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we examine pools of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea, both simulated and reconstructed from observations. We further quantify key fluxes in the C, N, and P cycling. Our calculations include pelagic reservoirs as well as the storage in the active sediment layer, which allows a complete coverage of the overall C, N, and P cycling on a system-scale. A striking property of C versus N and P cycling is that while the external supplies of total N and P (TN and TP) are largely balanced by internal removal processes, the total carbon (TC) supply is mainly compensated by a net export out of the system. In other words, external inputs of TN and TP are, in contrast to TC, rather efficiently filtered within the Baltic Sea. Further, there is a net export of TN and TP out of the system, but a net import of dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP). There is on the contrary a net export of both the organic and inorganic fractions of TC. While the pelagic pools of TC and TP are dominated by inorganic compounds, TN largely consists of organic N because allochthonous organic N is poorly degradable. There are however large basin-wise differences in C, N, and P elemental ratios as well as in inorganic versus organic fractions. These differences reflect both the differing ratios in external loads and differing oxygen conditions determining the redox-dependent fluxes of DIN and DIP.

  • 4. Meier, H. E. Markus
    et al.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Dieterich, Christian
    Eilola, Kari
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hoglund, Anders
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 558-573Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 5. Meier, Markus
    et al.
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Eilola, Kari
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Kuznetsov, I.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, T.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hypoxia in future climates: a model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea2011In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, p. L24608-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using an ensemble of coupled physical-biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide.

  • 6. Moellmann, Christian
    et al.
    Lindegren, Martin
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bergström, Lena
    Casini, Michele
    Diekmann, Rabea
    Flinkman, Juha
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Neuenfeldt, Stefan
    Schmidt, Joern O.
    Tomczak, Maciej
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Voss, Ruediger
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management: from single-species to integrated ecosystem assessment and advice for Baltic Sea fish stocks2014In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 71, no 5, p. 1187-1197Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Theory behind ecosystem-based management (EBM) and ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is now well developed. However, the implementation of EBFM exemplified by fisheries management in Europe is still largely based on single-species assessments and ignores the wider ecosystem context and impact. The reason for the lack or slow implementation of EBM and specifically EBFM is a lack of a coherent strategy. Such a strategy is offered by recently developed integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs), a formal synthesis tool to quantitatively analyse information on relevant natural and socio-economic factors, in relation to specified management objectives. Here, we focus on implementing the IEA approach for Baltic Sea fish stocks. We combine both tactical and strategic management aspects into a single strategy that supports the present Baltic Sea fish stock advice, conducted by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We first review the state of the art in the development of IEA within the current management framework. We then outline and discuss an approach that integrates fish stock advice and IEAs for the Baltic Sea. We intentionally focus on the central Baltic Sea and its three major fish stocks cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and sprat (Sprattus sprattus), but emphasize that our approach may be applied to other parts and stocks of the Baltic, as well as other ocean areas.

  • 7.
    Müller-Karulis, Bärbel
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Aigars, Juris
    Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, 8 Daugavgrivas, LV-1048 Riga, Latvia.
    Modeling the long-term dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton in the Gulf of Riga2011In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 87, no 3-4, p. 161-176Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The long term dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, and phytoplankton in the Gulf of Riga were simulated with a biogeochemical box model that resolved seasonal cycles. The model was calibrated using a numerical optimization procedure that adjusted 37 parameters to maximize the model data fit for field observations from 1973 to 2000 and validated with an independent dataset covering 2001-2007. Both the long-term increase and subsequent decline in winter nitrogen concentrations, as well as the continuous increase in winter phosphate levels were well reproduced by the model, which also gave reasonable representations of the seasonal dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton. Starting from the mid-1990s, the model simulated an increase in cyanobacteria growth sustained by internal phosphorus loading. While nitrogen was efficiently removed by denitrification from the Gulf of Riga, comparatively slow export to the Baltic Proper was the main removal pathway of phosphorus. Modeled residence times were 5.4 years for nitrogen and 38 years for phosphorus. Scenario simulations indicated that the Gulf of Riga responds to phosphorus load reductions with a gradual decrease in primary production and cyanobacteria growth, while the effect of nitrogen load reductions is largely offset by nitrogen fixation.

  • 8. Neumann, Thomas
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 574-585Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

  • 9.
    Niiranen, Susa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Olso, Norway.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjerne, Olle
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Müller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden.
    Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web2013In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, no 11, p. 3327-3342Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

  • 10. Olsson, Jens
    et al.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Pöllumäe, Arno
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ustups, Didzis
    Dinesen, Grete E.
    Peltonen, Heikki
    Putnis, Ivars
    Szymanek, Lena
    Simm, Mart
    Heikinheimo, Outi
    Gasyukov, Pavel
    Axe, Philip
    Bergström, Lena
    Temporal development of coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea over the past two decades2015In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 72, no 9, p. 2539-2548Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal areas are among the most biologically productive aquatic systems worldwide, but face strong and variable anthropogenic pressures. Few studies have, however, addressed the temporal development of coastal ecosystems in an integrated context. This study represents an assessment of the development over time in 13 coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea region during the past two decades. The study covers between two to six trophic levels per system and time-series dating back to the early 1990s. We applied multivariate analyses to assess the temporal development of biological ecosystem components and relate these to potential driving variables associated with changes in climate, hydrology, nutrient status, and fishing pressure. Our results show that structural change often occurred with similar timing in the assessed coastal systems. Moreover, in 10 of the 13 systems, a directional development of the ecosystem components was observed. The variables representing key ecosystem components generally differed across systems, due to natural differences and limitation to available data. As a result of this, the correlation between the temporal development of the biological components in each area and the driving variables assessed was to some extent area-specific. However, change in nutrient status was a common denominator of the variables most often associated with changes in the assessed systems. Our results, additionally, indicate existing strengths as well as future challenges in the capacity of currently available monitoring data to support integrated assessments and the implementation of an integrated ecosystem-based approach to the management of the Baltic Sea coastal ecosystems.

  • 11. Schneider, Bernd
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    Lukkari, Kaarina
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Environmental Impacts - Marine Biogeochemistry2015In: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC II Author Team, Springer, 2015, p. 337-361Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine biogeochemistry deals with the budgets and transformations of biogeochemically reactive elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus compounds are the major nutrients and control organic matter (biomass) production in the surface water. Due to various anthropogenic activities, the input of these nutrients into the Baltic Sea has increased drastically during the last century and has enhanced the net organic matter production by a factor of 2-4 (eutrophication). This has led to detrimental oxygen depletion and hydrogen sulphide production in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. Model simulations based on the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) indicate that current eutrophication and thus extension of oxygen-depleted areas cannot be reversed within the next hundred years by the proposed nutrient reduction measures. Another environmental problem is related to decreasing pH (acidification) that is caused by dissolution of the rising atmospheric CO2. Estimates indicate a decrease in pH by about 0.15 during the last 1-2 centuries, and continuation of this trend may have serious ecological consequences. However, the concurrent increase in the alkalinity of the Baltic Sea may have significantly counteracted acidification.

  • 12. Ustups, Didzis
    et al.
    Mueller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment, BIOR, Latvia.
    Bergström, Ulf
    Makarchouk, Andrej
    Sics, Ivo
    The influence of environmental conditions on early life stages of flounder (Platichthys flesus) in the central Baltic Sea2013In: Journal of Sea Research, ISSN 1385-1101, E-ISSN 1873-1414, Vol. 75, p. 77-84Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Flounder (Platichthys flesus) is a temperate marine fish that is well adapted to the brackish waters of the Baltic Sea. There are two sympatric flounder populations in the Baltic Sea, pelagic and demersal spawners, which differ in their spawning habitat and egg characteristics. In the present study, pelagic spawning flounder of the central Baltic Sea was studied. We examined whether variations in hydrological regime can explain fluctuations in flounder early life stages that have occurred over the past 30 years (1970-2005). Using generalized additive modeling to explain the abundance of flounder eggs and larvae in a Latvian ichthyoplankton dataset, we evaluate the hypothesis that the available reproductive volume, defined as the water column with dissolved oxygen larger than 1 ml/l and salinity between 10.6 and 12 PSU, affects the survival of flounder ichthyoplankton and determines recruitment success. Both reproductive volume and spawning stock biomass were significant factors determining flounder ichthyoplankton abundance. Different measures of water temperature did not contribute significantly to the variability of eggs or larvae. However, recruitment did not correlate to the supply of larvae. The findings presented in this study on the relationship between flounder reproduction, spawning stock biomass and reproductive volume, as well as the lack of correlation to recruitment, are valuable for the understanding of flounder ecology in the Baltic Sea, and for developing the management of the species.

  • 13.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Sarmiento, Jorge L.
    Christensen, Villy
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems2013In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, p. 735-744Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

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