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  • 1.
    Alling, Vanja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Rahm, Lars
    Polehne, Falk
    Tracing terrestrial organic matter by delta34S and delta13C signatures in a subarctic estuary2008In: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, E-ISSN 1939-5590, Vol. 53, no 6, p. 2594-2602Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A key issue to understanding the transformations of terrestrial organic carbon in the ocean is to disentangle the latter from marine-produced organic matter. We applied a multiple stable isotope approach using 34S and 13C isotope signatures from estuarine dissolved organic matter (DOM), enabling us to constrain the contribution of terrestrial-derived DOM in an estuarine gradient of the northern Baltic Sea. The stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic sulfur (34SDOS) have twice the range between terrestrial and marine end members compared to the stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic carbon (13CDOC); hence, the share of terrestrial DOM in the total estuarine DOM can be calculated more precisely. DOM samples from the water column were collected using ultrafiltration on board the German RV Maria S Merian during a winter cruise, in the Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper. We calculated the terrestrial fraction of the estuarine DOC (DOCter) from both 13CDOC and 34SDOS signatures and applying fixed C: S ratios for riverine and marine end members to convert S isotope signatures into DOC concentrations. The 34SDOS signature of the riverine end member was +7.02‰, and the mean signatures from Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper were +10.27, +12.51, and +13.67‰, respectively, showing an increasing marine signal southwards (34SDOS marine end member 5 18.1‰). These signatures indicate that 87‰, 75‰, and 67‰, respectively, of the water column DOC is of terrestrial origin (DOCter) in these basins. Comparing the fractions of DOCter in each basin—that are still based on few winter values only—with the annual river input of DOC, it appears that the turnover time for DOCter in the Gulf of Bothnia is much shorter than the hydraulic turnover time, suggesting that high-latitude estuaries might be efficient sinks for DOCter.

  • 2.
    Alling, Vanja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Porcelli, D.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Anderson, L. G.
    Sanchez-Garcia, L.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Andersson, P. S.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Degradation of terrestrial organic carbon, primary production and out-gassing of CO2 in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas as inferred from delta C-13 values of DIC2012In: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, ISSN 0016-7037, E-ISSN 1872-9533, Vol. 95, p. 143-159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The cycling of carbon on the Arctic shelves, including outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere, is not clearly understood. Degradation of terrestrial organic carbon (OCter) has recently been shown to be pronounced over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), i.e. the Laptev and East Siberian Seas, producing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). To further explore the processes affecting DIC, an extensive suite of shelf water samples were collected during the summer of 2008, and assessed for the stable carbon isotopic composition of DIC (delta C-13(DIC)). The delta C-13(DIC) values varied between -7.2 parts per thousand to +1.6 parts per thousand and strongly deviated from the compositions expected from only mixing between river water and seawater. Model calculations suggest that the major processes causing these deviations from conservative mixing were addition of (DIC) by degradation of OCter, removal of DIC during primary production, and outgassing of CO2. All waters below the halocline in the ESAS had delta C-13(DIC) values that appear to reflect mixing of river water and seawater combined with additions of on average 70 +/- 20 mu M of DIC, originating from degradation of OCter in the coastal water column. This is of the same magnitude as the recently reported deficits of DOCter and POCter for the same waters. The surface waters in the East Siberian Sea had higher delta C-13(DIC) values and lower DIC concentrations than expected from conservative mixing, consistent with additions of DIC from degradation of OCter and outgassing of CO2. The outgassing of CO2 was equal to loss of 123 +/- 50 mu M DIC. Depleted delta C-13(POC) values of -29 parts per thousand to -32 parts per thousand in the mid to outer shelf regions are consistent with POC from phytoplankton production. The low delta C-13(POC) values are likely due to low delta C-13(DIC) of precursor DIC, which is due to degradation of OCter, rather than reflecting terrestrial input compositions. Overall, the delta C-13(DIC) values confirm recent suggestions of substantial degradation of OCter over the ESAS, and further show that a large part of the CO2 produced from degradation has been outgassed to the atmosphere.

  • 3.
    Alling, Vanja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Sanchez-Garcia, Laura
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Porcelli, Don
    Pugach, Sveta
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    van Dongen, Bart
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anderson, Leif G.
    Sokolov, Alexander
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Andersson, Per
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Semiletov, Igor
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Non-conservative behavior of dissolved organic carbon across the Laptev and East Siberian Seas2010In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 24, p. GB4033-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to have a strong effect on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) region, which includes 40% of the Arctic shelves and comprises the Laptev and East Siberian seas. The largest organic carbon pool, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), may change significantly due to changes in both riverine inputs and transformation rates; however, the present DOC inventories and transformation patterns are poorly understood. Using samples from the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008, this study examines for the first time DOC removal in Arctic shelf waters with residence times that range from months to years. Removals of up to 10%–20% were found in the Lena River estuary, consistent with earlier studies in this area, where surface waters were shown to have a residence time of approximately 2 months. In contrast, the DOC concentrations showed a strong nonconservative pattern in areas with freshwater residence times of several years. The average losses of DOC were estimated to be 30%–50% during mixing along the shelf, corresponding to a first-order removal rate constant of 0.3 yr−1. These data provide the first observational evidence for losses of DOC in the Arctic shelf seas, and the calculated DOC deficit reflects DOC losses that are higher than recent model estimates for the region. Overall, a large proportion of riverine DOC is removed from the surface waters across the Arctic shelves. Such significant losses must be included in models of the carbon cycle for the Arctic Ocean, especially since the breakdown of terrestrial DOC to CO2 in Arctic shelf seas may constitute a positive feedback mechanism for Arctic climate warming. These data also provide a baseline for considering the effects of future changes in carbon fluxes, as the vast northern carbon-rich permafrost areas draining into the Arctic are affected by global warming.

  • 4. Andersen, Hans Estrup
    et al.
    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte
    Thodsen, Hans
    Mejlhede Andersen, Peter
    Larsen, Søren E.
    Stålnacke, Per
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Identifying Hot Spots of Agricultural Nitrogen Loss Within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin2016In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 227, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural management practices are among the major drivers of agricultural nitrogen (N) loss. Legislation and management incentives for measures to mitigate N loss should eventually be carried out at the individual farm level. Consequently, an appropriate scale to simulate N loss from a scientific perspective should be at the farm scale. A data set of more than 4000 agricultural fields with combinations of climate, soils and agricultural management which overall describes the variations found in the Baltic Sea drainage basin was constructed. The soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al. 2012) was used to simulate N loss from the root zone of all agricultural fields in the data set. From the data set of Daisy simulations, we identified the most important drivers for N loss by multiple regression statistics and developed a statistical N loss model. By applying this model to a basin-wide data set on climate, soils and agricultural management at a 10 x 10 km scale, we were able to calculate root-zone N losses from the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin and identify N loss hot spots in a consistent way and at a level of detail not hitherto seen for this area. Further, the root-zone N loss model was coupled to estimates of nitrogen retention in catchments separated into retention in groundwater and retention in surface waters allowing calculation of the coastal N loading.

  • 5. Anderson, Leif G.
    et al.
    Ek, Jörgen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ericson, Ylva
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Semiletov, Igor
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ulfsbo, Adam
    Export of calcium carbonate corrosive waters from the East Siberian Sea2017In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 14, no 7, p. 1811-1823Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Siberian shelf seas are areas of extensive biogeochemical transformation of organic matter, both of marine and terrestrial origin. This in combination with brine production from sea ice formation results in a cold bottom water of relative high salinity and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)). Data from the SWERUS-C3 expedition compiled on the icebreaker Oden in July to September 2014 show the distribution of such waters at the outer shelf, as well as their export into the deep central Arctic basins. Very high pCO(2) water, up to similar to 1000 mu atm, was observed associated with high nutrients and low oxygen concentrations. Consequently, this water had low saturation state with respect to calcium carbonate down to less than 0.8 for calcite and 0.5 for aragonite. Waters undersaturated in aragonite were also observed in the surface in waters at equilibrium with atmospheric CO2; however, at these conditions the cause of undersaturation was low salinity from river runoff and/or sea ice melt. The calcium carbonate corrosive water was observed all along the continental margin and well out into the deep Makarov and Canada basins at a depth from about 50 m depth in the west to about 150 m in the east. These waters of low aragonite saturation state are traced in historic data to the Canada Basin and in the waters flowing out of the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland and in the western Fram Strait, thus potentially impacting the marine life in the North Atlantic Ocean.

  • 6. Artioli, Yuri
    et al.
    Friedeich, Jana
    Gilbert, Alison J.
    McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail
    Mee, Laurence D.
    Vermaat, Jan E.
    Wulff, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Palmeri, Luca
    Pollehne, Falk
    Nutrient budgets for European seas: A measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies.2008In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 56, no 9, p. 1609-1617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Socio-economic development in Europe has exerted increasing pressure on the marine environment. Eutrophication, caused by nutrient enrichment, is evident in regions of all European seas. Its severity varies but has, in places, adversely impacted socio-economic activities. This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of recently adopted policies to reduce anthropogenic nutrient inputs to European seas. Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets were constructed for three different periods (prior to severe eutrophication, during severe eutrophication and contemporary) to capture changes in the relative importance of different nutrient sources in four European seas suffering from eutrophication (Baltic Proper, coastal North Sea, Northern Adriatic and North-Western Black Sea Shelf). Policy success is evident for point sources, notably for P in the Baltic and North Seas, but reduction of diffuse sources has been more problematic.

  • 7.
    Björkvald, Louise
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Giesler, R.
    Laudon, H.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Landscape variations in stream water SO42- and delta S-34(SO4) in a boreal stream network2009In: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, ISSN 0016-7037, E-ISSN 1872-9533, Vol. 73, no 16, p. 4648-4660Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite reduced anthropogenic deposition during the last decades, deposition sulphate may still play an important role in the biogeochemical cycles of S and many catchments may act as net sources of S that may remain for several decades. The aim of this study is to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics of both SO42- and delta S-34(SO4) in stream water from catchments with varying percentage of wetland and forest coverage and to determine their relative importance for catchment losses of S. Stream water samples were collected from 15 subcatchments ranging in size from 3 to 6780 ha, in a boreal stream network, northern Sweden. In forested catchments (2% wetland cover) S-SO42- concentrations in stream water averaged 1.7 mg L-1 whereas in wetland dominated catchments (30% wetland cover) the concentrations averaged 0.3 mg L-1. A significant negative relationship was observed between S-SO42- and percentage wetland coverage (r(2) = 0.77, p  0.001) and the annual export of stream water SO42- and wetland coverage (r(2) = 0.76 p  0.001). The percentage forest coverage was on the other hand positively related to stream water SO42- concentrations and the annual export of stream water SO42- (r(2) = 0.77 and r(2) = 0.79, respectively). The annual average delta S-34(SO4) value in wetland dominated streams was +7.6%omicron. and in streams of forested catchments +6.7%omicron. At spring flood the delta S-34(SO4) values decreased in all streams by 1%omicron to 5%omicron. The delta S-34(SO4) values in all streams were higher than the delta S-34(SO4) value of +4.7%omicron in precipitation (snow). The export of S ranged from 0.5 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (wetland headwater stream) to 3.8 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (forested headwater stream). With an average S deposition in open field of 1.3 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (2002-2006) the mass balance results in a net export of S from all catchments, except in catchments with 30% wetland. The high temporal and spatial resolution of this study demonstrates that the reducing environments of wetlands play a key role for the biogeochemistry of S in boreal landscapes and are net sinks of S. Forested areas, on the other hand were net sources of S.

  • 8.
    Brink, Jenni
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Sahlberg, J.
    Rahm, Lars
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Weathering rates and origin of inorganic carbon as influenced by river regulation in the boreal sub-arctic region of Sweden2007In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 4, p. 555-588Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Conley, Daniel J.
    et al.
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Aigars, Juris
    Axe, Philip
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Eremina, Tatjana
    Haahti, Britt-Marie
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Jonsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Kotta, Jonne
    Lannegren, Christer
    Larsson, Ulf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Maximov, Alexey
    Medina, Miguel Rodriguez
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Lysiak-Pastuszak, Elzbieta
    Remeikaite-Nikiene, Nijole
    Walve, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Wilhelms, Sunhild
    Zillen, Lovisa
    Hypoxia is increasing in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea2011In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 45, no 16, p. 6777-6783Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia is a well-described phenomenon in the offshore waters of the Baltic Sea with both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia known to have increased due to anthropogenic eutrophication, however, an unknown amount of hypoxia is present in the coastal zone. Here we report on the widespread unprecedented occurrence of hypoxia across the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. We have identified 115 sites that have experienced hypoxia during the period 1955-2009 increasing the global total to ca. 500 sites, with the Baltic Sea coastal zone containing over 20% of all known sites worldwide. Most sites experienced episodic hypoxia, which is a precursor to development of seasonal hypoxia. The Baltic Sea coastal zone displays an alarming trend with hypoxia steadily increasing with time since the 1950s effecting nutrient biogeochemical processes, ecosystem services, and coastal habitat.

  • 10.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    et al.
    GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Department of Geology, Lund University, Sweden.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Rahm, Lars
    Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, Sweden.
    Papush, Liana
    Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, Sweden.
    Danielsson, Åsa
    Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, Sweden.
    Clarke, Annemarie
    Department of Marine Ecology, National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark.
    Pastuszak, Marianne
    Sea Fisheries Institute, Poland.
    Aigars, Juris
    Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Latvia, Latvia.
    Ciuffa, Daniele
    Department of Biology, University of Rome, Italy.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea.2008In: Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 73, p. 338-346Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea is one of many aquatic ecosystems that show long-term declines in dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations due to anthropogenic alteration of the biogeochemical Si cycle. Reductions in DSi in aquatic ecosystems have been coupled to hydrological regulation reducing inputs, but also with eutrophication, although the relative significance of both processes remains unknown for the observed reductions in DSi concentrations. Here we combine present and historical data on water column DSi concentrations, together with estimates of present river DSi loads to the Baltic, the load prior to damming together with estimates of the long-term accumulation of BSi in sediments. In addition, a model has been used to evaluate the past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea. The present day DSi load to the Baltic Sea is 855 ktons y− 1. Hydrological regulation and eutrophication of inland waters can account for a reduction of 420 ktons y− 1 less riverine DSi entering the Baltic Sea today. Using published data on basin-wide accumulation rates we estimate that 1074 ktons y− 1 of biogenic silica (BSi) is accumulating in the sediments, which is 36% higher than earlier estimates from the literature (791 ktons y− 1). The difference is largely due to the high reported sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Using river DSi loads and estimated BSi accumulation, our model was not able to estimate water column DSi concentrations as burial estimates exceeded DSi inputs. The model was then used to estimate the BSi burial from measured DSi concentrations and DSi load. The model estimate for the total burial of BSi in all three basins was 620 ktons y− 1, 74% less than estimated from sedimentation rates and sediment BSi concentrations. The model predicted 20% less BSi accumulation in the Baltic Proper and 10% less in the Bothnian Bay than estimated, but with significantly less BSi accumulation in the Bothnian Sea by a factor of 3. The model suggests there is an overestimation of basin-wide sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea. In the Baltic Proper, modelling shows that historical DSi concentrations were 2.6 times higher at the turn of the last century (ca. 1900) than at present. Although the DSi decrease has leveled out and at present there are only restricted areas of the Baltic Sea with limiting DSi concentrations, further declines in DSi concentrations will lead to widespread DSi limitation of diatoms with severe implications for the food web.

  • 11.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Alling, Vanja
    Norwegian Geotechnical Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Korth, Frederike
    Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research.
    Moerth, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tracing inputs of terrestrial high molecular weight dissolved organic matter within the Baltic Sea ecosystem2012In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 9, p. 4465-4475Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To test the hypothesis whether high molecular weight dissolved organic matter (HMW-DOM) in a high latitude marginal sea is dominated by terrestrial derived matter, 10 stations were sampled along the salinity gradient of the central and northern Baltic Sea and were analyzed for concentrations of dissolved organic carbon as well as δ13C values of HMW-DOM. Different end-member-mixing models were applied to quantify the influence of terrestrial DOM and to test for conservative versus non-conservative behavior of the terrestrial DOM in the different Baltic Sea basins. The share of terrestrial DOM to the total HMW-DOM was calculated for each station, ranging from 43 to 83%. This shows the high influence of terrestrial DOM inputs for the Baltic Sea ecosystem. The data also suggest that terrestrial DOM reaching the open Baltic Sea is not subject to substantial removal anymore. However compared to riverine DOM concentrations, our results indicate that substantial amounts of HMW-DOM (> 50%) seem to be removed near the coastline during estuarine mixing. A budget approach yielded residence times for terrestrial DOM of 2.8, 3.0, and 4.5 yr for the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea and the Baltic Proper.

  • 12.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl- Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Rodriguez Medina, Miguel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Scenario Analysis on Human Protein consumption and Climate change effects on riverine N export to the Balitc SeaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Medina, Miguel Rodriguez
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wulff, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea2010In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 44, no 7, p. 2379-2385Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

  • 14.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Swaney, D. P.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Riverine nitrogen export in Swedish catchments dominated by atmospheric inputs2012In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 111, no 1-3, p. 203-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present the first estimates of net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) in European boreal catchments. In Swedish catchments, nitrogen (N) deposition is a major N input (31-94%). Hence, we used two different N deposition inputs to calculate NANI for 36 major Swedish catchments. The relationship between riverine N export and NANI was strongest when using only oxidized deposition (NOy) as atmospheric input (r(2) = 0.70) rather than total deposition (i.e., both oxidized and reduced nitrogen, NOy + NHx deposition, r(2) = 0.62). The y-intercept (NANI = 0) for the NANI calculated with NOy is significantly different from zero (p = 0.0042*) and indicates a background flux from the catchment of some 100 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in addition to anthropogenic inputs. This agrees with similar results from North American boreal catchments. The slope of the linear regressions was 0.25 for both N deposition inputs (NOy and NOy + NHx), suggesting that on average, 25% of the anthropogenic N inputs is exported by rivers to the Baltic Sea. Agricultural catchments in central and southern Sweden have increased their riverine N export up to tenfold compared to the inferred background flux. Although the relatively unperturbed northernmost catchments receive significant N loads from atmospheric deposition, these catchments do not show significantly elevated riverine N export. The fact that nitrogen export in Swedish catchments appears to be higher in proportion to NANI at higher loads suggests that N retention may be saturating as loading rates increase. In northern and western Sweden the export of nitrogen is largely controlled by the hydraulic load, i.e., the riverine discharge normalized by water surface area, which has units of distance time(-1). Besides hydraulic load the percent total forest cover also affects the nitrogen export primarily in the northern and western catchments.

  • 15.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Swaney, Dennis
    Cornell University, US.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Riverine nitrogen export in Swedish catchments dominated by atmospheric inputsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) approach addressing N loading from agricultural sources and the atmosphere were applied to 36 major Swedish catchments. We tested three alternatives of the empirical relationship between NANI and riverine N export using different ways of estimating atmospheric N deposition as the major N input (31-94 %) in these catchments. The relationship between riverine N export and NANI was strongest for the NANI calculation using NOy (r2 linear =0.704, r2 exponential =0.723) compared to NOy + net NHx (r2 linear =0.623, r2 exponential =0.670) and total NOy + NHx deposition (r2 linear =0.615, r2 exponential =0.658). The y-intercept (NANI= 0) of the linear and exponential regression models were between 40-160 kg N km-2 year-1 indicating a natural background flux from the catchment without anthropogenic inputs of some 100 kg N km-2 year-1. This agrees with similar results from North American boreal catchments. The slope of the three linear regressions varies from 0.24 (NOy + Net NHx) to 0.25 (NOy and NOy+ NHx), suggesting that in average 25% of the human inputs of nitrogen are exported by the rivers to the Baltic Sea. Agricultural catchments, in the middle and southern Sweden, have increased their riverine N export up to an order of magnitude compared to the inferred natural background flux as an effect of anthropogenic loading. Although, the relatively unperturbed northernmost catchments receive significant N loads from atmospheric deposition these catchments do not show any significant elevated riverine N export. The fact that nitrogen export in Swedish catchments appears to be higher in proportion to NANI at higher loads suggests that N retention could be saturating as loading rates increase. Such nonlinear or threshold responses have significant implications for nutrient management.

  • 16.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Claremar, Björn
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 337--351Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate

  • 17. Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Pastuszak, M.
    Löfgren, S.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Nitrogen budgets of the Polish agricuture 1960-2000: Implications for riverine nitrogen loads to the Baltic Sea from transitional countries2007In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, Vol. 85, p. 153-168Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18. Ferreira, Joao G.
    et al.
    Andersen, Jesper H.
    Borja, Angel
    Bricker, Suzanne B.
    Camp, Jordi
    da Silva, Margarida Cardoso
    Garces, Esther
    Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Ignatiades, Lydia
    Lancelot, Christiane
    Menesguen, Alain
    Tett, Paul
    Hoepffner, Nicolas
    Claussen, Ulrich
    Overview of eutrophication indicators to assess environmental status within the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive2011In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, ISSN 0272-7714, E-ISSN 1096-0015, Vol. 93, no 2, p. 117-131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2009, following approval of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC), the European Commission (EC) created task groups to develop guidance for eleven quality descriptors that form the basis for evaluating ecosystem function. The objective was to provide European countries with practical guidelines for implementing the MSFD, and to produce a Commission Decision that encapsulated key points of the work in a legal framework. This paper presents a review of work carried out by the eutrophication task group, and reports our main findings to the scientific community. On the basis of an operational, management-oriented definition, we discuss the main methodologies that could be used for coastal and marine eutrophication assessment. Emphasis is placed on integrated approaches that account for physico-chemical and biological components, and combine both pelagic and benthic symptoms of eutrophication, in keeping with the holistic nature of the MSFD. We highlight general features that any marine eutrophication model should possess, rather than making specific recommendations. European seas range from highly eutrophic systems such as the Baltic to nutrient-poor environments such as the Aegean Sea. From a physical perspective, marine waters range from high energy environments of the north east Atlantic to the permanent vertical stratification of the Black Sea. This review aimed to encapsulate that variability, recognizing that meaningful guidance should be flexible enough to accommodate the widely differing characteristics of European seas, and that this information is potentially relevant in marine ecosystems worldwide. Given the spatial extent of the MSFD, innovative approaches are required to allow meaningful monitoring and assessment. Consequently, substantial logistic and financial challenges will drive research in areas such as remote sensing of harmful algal blooms, in situ sensor development, and mathematical models. Our review takes into account related legislation, and in particular the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD - 2000/60/EC), which deals with river basins, including estuaries and a narrow coastal strip, in order to examine these issues within the framework of integrated coastal zone management.

  • 19.
    Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Fransson, Agneta
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tedesco, Letizia
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Remineralization rate of terrestrial DOC as inferred from CO2 supersaturated coastal watersManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 20.
    Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Fransson, Agneta
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tedesco, Letizia
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Remineralization rate of terrestrial DOC as inferred from CO2 supersaturated coastal waters2019In: Biogeosciences Discussions, ISSN 1810-6277, E-ISSN 1810-6285, Vol. 16, no 3, p. 863-879Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal seas receive large amounts of terrestrially derived organic carbon (OC). The fate of this carbon, and its impact on the marine environment, is however poorly understood. Here we combine underway CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements with coupled 3D hydrodynamical-biogeochemical modelling to investigate whether remineralization of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) can explain CO2 supersaturated surface waters in the Gulf of Bothnia, a subarctic estuary. We find that a substantial remineralization of tDOC, and that a strong tDOC induced light attenuation dampening the primary production, is required to reproduce the observed CO2 supersaturated waters in the nearshore areas. A removal rate of tDOC of the order of one year, estimated in a previous modelling study in the same area, gives a good agreement between modelled and observed pCO2. The remineralization rate is on the same order as bacterial degradation rates calculated from published incubation experiments, suggesting that this remineralization could be caused by bacterial degradation. Furthermore, the observed high pCO2 values during the ice covered season argues against photochemical degradation as the main removal mechanism. All of the remineralized tDOC is outgassed to the atmosphere in the model, turning the northernmost part of the Gulf of Bothnia to a source of atmospheric CO2.

  • 21.
    Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tedesco, Letizia
    Vichi, Marcello
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Roquet, Fabien
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Spilling, Kristian
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Eilola, Kari
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, no 1, p. 166-188Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High inputs of nutrients and organic matter make coastal seas places of intense air‐sea CO2 exchange. Due to their complexity, the role of coastal seas in the global air‐sea CO2 exchange is, however, still uncertain. Here, we investigate the role of phytoplankton stoichiometric flexibility and extracellular DOC production for the seasonal nutrient and CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) dynamics in the Gulf of Bothnia, Northern Baltic Sea. A 3‐D ocean biogeochemical‐physical model with variable phytoplankton stoichiometry is for the first time implemented in the area and validated against observations. By simulating non‐Redfieldian internal phytoplankton stoichiometry, and a relatively large production of extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the model adequately reproduces observed seasonal cycles in macronutrients and pCO2. The uptake of atmospheric CO2 is underestimated by 50% if instead using the Redfield ratio to determine the carbon assimilation, as in other Baltic Sea models currently in use. The model further suggests, based on the observed drawdown of pCO2, that observational estimates of organic carbon production in the Gulf of Bothnia, derived with the method, may be heavily underestimated. We conclude that stoichiometric variability and uncoupling of carbon and nutrient assimilation have to be considered in order to better understand the carbon cycle in coastal seas.

  • 22.
    Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Tracing terrestrial DOC in the Baltic Sea - a 3-D model study2016In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 30, no 2, p. 134-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The fate of terrestrial organic matter brought to the coastal seas by rivers, and its role in the global carbon cycle, are still not very well known. Here the degradation rate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOCter) is studied in the Baltic Sea, a subarctic semi-enclosed sea, by releasing it as a tracer in a 3-D circulation model and applying linear decay constants. A good agreement with available observational data is obtained by parameterizing the degradation in two rather different ways; one by applying a decay time on the order of 10 years to the whole pool of DOCter, and one by dividing the DOCter into one refractory pool and one pool subject to a decay time on the order of 1 year. The choice of parameterization has a significant effect on where in the Baltic Sea the removal takes place, which can be of importance when modeling the full carbon cycle and the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. In both cases the biogeochemical decay operates on time scales less than the water residence time. Therefore only a minor fraction of the DOCter reaches the North Sea, whereas approximately 80% is removed by internal sinks within the Baltic Sea. This further implies that DOCter mineralization is an important link in land-sea-atmosphere cycling of carbon in coastal- and shelf seas that are heavily influenced by riverine DOC.

  • 23. Fripiat, F.
    et al.
    Declercq, M.
    Sapart, C. J.
    Anderson, L. G.
    Brüchert, Volker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Deman, F.
    Fonseca-Batista, D.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Roukaerts, A.
    Semiletov, I. P.
    Dehairs, F.
    Influence of the bordering shelves on nutrient distribution in the Arctic halocline inferred from water column nitrate isotopes2018In: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, E-ISSN 1939-5590, Vol. 63, no 5, p. 2154-2170Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The East Siberian Sea and contiguous western Arctic Ocean basin are characterized by a subsurface nutrient maximum in the halocline, generally attributed to both Pacific inflow and intensive remineralization in shelf bottom waters that are advected into the central basin. We report nitrogen and oxygen isotopic measurement of nitrate from the East Siberian Sea and western Eurasian Basin, in order to gain insight into how nitrate is processed by the microbial community and redistributed in the Arctic Ocean. A large decoupling between nitrate delta N-15 and delta O-18 is reported, increasing and decreasing upward from the Atlantic temperature maximum layer toward the surface, respectively. A correlation between water and nitrate delta O-18 indicates that most of the nitrate (> 60%) at the halocline has been regenerated within the Arctic Ocean. The increase in nitrate delta N-15 correlates with the fixed N deficit, indicating a causal link between the loss of fixed N and the delta N-15 enrichment. This suggests that a significant share of benthic denitrification is driven by nitrate supplied by remineralization and partial nitrification, allowing residual delta N-15-enriched ammonium to diffuse out of the sediments. By increasing nutrient concentrations and fixed N deficit in shelf bottom waters, this imprint is attenuated offshore following advection into the halocline by nitrate regeneration and mixing. Estimation of the sedimentary isotope effect related to benthic denitrification yields values in the range of 2.4-3.8 parts per thousand, with its magnitude driven by both the degree of coupling between remineralization and nitrification, and fixed N concentrations in shelf bottom waters.

  • 24. Funkey, Carolina P.
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Reuss, Nina S.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Jilbert, Tom
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Hypoxia Sustains Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Baltic Sea2014In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 48, no 5, p. 2598-2602Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nutrient over-enrichment is one of the classic triggering mechanisms for the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms in aquatic ecosystems. In the Baltic Sea, cyanobacteria regularly occur in the late summer months and form nuisance accumulations in surface waters and their abundance has intensified significantly in the past 50 years attributed to human-induced eutrophication. However, the natural occurrence of cyanobacteria during the Holocene is debated. In this study, we present records of cyanobacteria pigments, water column redox proxies, and nitrogen isotopic signatures for the past ca. 8000 years from Baltic Sea sediment cores. Our results demonstrate that cyanobacteria abundance and nitrogen fixation are correlated with hypoxia occurring during three main intervals: (1) ca. 7000-4000 B.P. during the Littorina transgression, (2) ca. 1400-700 B.P. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and (3) from ca. 1950 A.D. to the present. Issues of preservation were investigated, and we show that organic matter and pigment profiles are not simply an artifact of preservation. These results suggest that cyanobacteria abundance is sustained during periods of hypoxia, most likely because of enhanced recycling of phosphorus in low oxygen conditions.

  • 25. Giesler, Reiner
    et al.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Karlsson, E. M.
    Jantze, Elin J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Catchment-scale dissolved carbon concentrations and exportestimates across six subarctic streams in northern Sweden2014In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 11, p. 525-537Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climatic change is currently enhancing permafrostthawing and the flow of water through the landscape in subarcticand arctic catchments, with major consequences forthe carbon export to aquatic ecosystems. We studied streamwater carbon export in several tundra-dominated catchmentsin northern Sweden. There were clear seasonal differencesin both dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganiccarbon (DIC) concentrations. The highest DOC concentrationsoccurred during the spring freshet while the highestDIC concentrations were always observed during winterbaseflow conditions for the six catchments considered in thisstudy. Long-term trends for the period 1982 to 2010 for oneof the streams showed that DIC concentrations has increasedby 9% during the 28 yr of measurement while no clear trendwas found for DOC. Similar increasing trends were alsofound for conductivity, Ca and Mg. When trends were discretizedinto individual months, we found a significant linearincrease in DIC concentrations with time for September,November and December. In these subarctic catchments, theannual mass of C exported as DIC was in the same orderof magnitude as DOC; the average proportion of DIC to thetotal dissolved C exported was 61% for the six streams. Furthermore,there was a direct relationship between total runoffand annual dissolved carbon fluxes for these six catchments.These relationships were more prevalent for annual DIC exportsthan annual DOC exports in this region. Our results alsohighlight that both DOC and DIC can be important in highlatitudeecosystems. This is particularly relevant in environmentswhere thawing permafrost and changes to subsurfaceice due to global warming can influence stream water fluxesof C. The large proportion of stream water DIC flux also hasimplications on regional C budgets and needs to be consideredin order to understand climate-induced feedback mechanismsacross the landscape.

  • 26. Giesler, Reiner
    et al.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Lundin, Erik J.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Spatiotemporal variations of pCO(2) and delta C-13-DIC in subarctic streams in northern Sweden2013In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 27, no 1, p. 176-186Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Current predictions of climate-related changes in high-latitude environments suggest major effects on the C export in streams and rivers. To what extent this will also affect the stream water CO2 concentrations is poorly understood. In this study we examined the spatiotemporal variation in partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)) and in stable isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13-DIC) in subarctic streams in northern Sweden. The selected watersheds are characterized by large variations in high-latitude boreal forest and tundra and differences in bedrock. We found that all streams generally were supersaturated in pCO(2) with an average concentration of 850 mu atm. The variability in pCO(2) across streams was poorly related to vegetation cover, and carbonaceous bedrock influence was manifested in high DIC concentrations but not reflected in either stream pCO(2) or delta C-13-DIC. Stream water pCO(2) values were highest during winter base flow when we also observed the lowest delta C-13-DIC values, and this pattern is interpreted as a high contribution from CO2 from soil respiration. Summer base flow delta C-13-DIC values probably are more affected by in situ stream processes such as aquatic production/respiration and degassing. A challenge for further studies will be to disentangle the origin of stream water CO2 and quantify their relative importance.

  • 27.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Carbon cycling in the Baltic Sea - The fate of allochthonous organic carbon and its impact on air-sea CO2 exchange2014In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 129, p. 289-302Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical model (BALTSEM) is used to estimate carbon fluxes in the Baltic Sea over the 1980-2006 period. Budget calculations for organic carbon indicate that of the total allochthonous organic carbon (TOCT) supplied to the system, on average 56% is mineralized, 36% is exported out of the system, and the remainder is buried. River discharge is the main source of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the Baltic Sea. However, model results indicate that in the Gulf of Bothnia (northern Baltic Sea), the contribution to the DIC stock by TOCT mineralization is of the same order as direct river input of DIC In the Kattegat and Danish Straits (southwestern Baltic Sea) on the other hand, net uptake of atmospheric CO2 comprises the major DIC source. Despite large variations within the system, with net outgassing from some sub-basins and net absorption in others, the Baltic Sea as a whole was estimated to be a net sink for atmospheric CO2. Mineralization of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon (DOCT) influences air-sea CO2 exchange. A sensitivity study indicates that depending on the labile fraction of DOCT, the contribution from CO2 absorption to total external DIC sources can amount to 10-25%.

  • 28.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hagens, Mathilde
    Sun, Xiaole
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Reed, Daniel C.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Sedimentary alkalinity generation and long-term alkalinity development in the Baltic Sea2019In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 437-456Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Enhanced release of alkalinity from the seafloor, principally driven by anaerobic degradation of organic matter under low-oxygen conditions and associated secondary redox reactions, can increase the carbon dioxide (CO2) buffering capacity of seawater and therefore oceanic CO2 uptake. The Baltic Sea has undergone severe changes in oxygenation state and total alkalinity (TA) over the past decades. The link between these concurrent changes has not yet been investigated in detail. A recent system-wide TA budget constructed for the past 50 years using BALTSEM, a coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the whole Baltic Sea area, revealed an unknown TA source. Here we use BALTSEM in combination with observational data and one-dimensional reactive transport modelling of sedimentary processes in the Fårö Deep, a deep Baltic Sea basin, to test whether sulfate reduction coupled to iron (Fe) sulfide burial can explain the missing TA source in the Baltic Proper. We calculated that this burial can account for 26% of the missing source in this basin, with the remaining TA possibly originating from unknown river inputs or submarine groundwater discharge. We also show that temporal variability in the input of Fe to the sediments since the 1970s drives changes in sulfur burial in the Fårö Deep, suggesting that Fe availability is the ultimate limiting factor for TA generation under anoxic conditions. The implementation of projected climate change and two nutrient load scenarios for the 21st century in BALTSEM shows that reducing nutrient loads will improve deep water oxygen conditions, but at the expense of lower surface water TA concentrations, CO2 buffering capacities and faster acidification. When these changes additionally lead to a decrease in Fe inputs to the sediment of the deep basins, anaerobic TA generation will be reduced even further, thus exacerbating acidification. This work highlights that Fe dynamics play a key role in the release of TA from sediments where Fe sulfide formation is limited by Fe availability, as exemplified for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, it demonstrates that burial of Fe sulfides should be included in TA budgets of low oxygen basins.

  • 29.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Björk, Göran
    Stranne, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Andersson, Leif G.
    Geibel, Marc C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Semiletov, Igor P.
    Thornton, Brett F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Carbon cycling on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf – a change in air-sea CO2 flux induced by mineralization of terrestrial organic carbon2017In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Measurements from the SWERUS-C3 and ISSS-08 Arctic expeditions were used to calibrate and validate a new physical-biogeochemical model developed to quantify key carbon cycling processes on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). The model was used in a series of experimental simulations with the specific aim to investigate the pathways of terrestrial dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOCter and POCter) supplied to the shelf. Rivers supply on average 8.5 Tg C yr−1 dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and further 8.5 and 1.1 Tg C yr−1 DOCter and POCter respectively. Based on observed and simulated DOC concentrations and stable isotope values (δ13CDOC) in shelf waters, we estimate that only some 20 % of the riverine DOCter is labile. According to our model results, an additional supply of approximately 14 Tg C yr−1 eroded labile POCter is however required to describe the observed stable isotope values of DIC (δ13CDIC). Degradation of riverine DOCter and POCter results in a 1.8 Tg C yr−1 reduction in the uptake of atmospheric CO2, while degradation of eroded POCter results in an additional 10 Tg C yr−1 reduction. Our calculations indicate nevertheless that the ESAS is an overall small net sink for atmospheric CO2 (1.7 Tg C yr−1). The external carbon sources are largely compensated by a net export from the shelf to the Arctic Ocean (31 Tg C yr−1), and to a smaller degree by a permanent burial in the sediments (2.7 Tg C yr−1).

  • 30.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Modelling the C-13 and C-12 isotopes of inorganic and organic carbon in the Baltic Sea2015In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 148, p. 122-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, C-12 and C-13 contents of all carbon containing state variables (dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, detrital carbon, and the carbon content of autotrophs and heterotrophs) have for the first time been explicitly included in a coupled physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea model. Different processes in the carbon cycling have distinct fractionation values, resulting in specific isotopic fingerprints. Thus, in addition to simulating concentrations of different tracers, our new model formulation improves the possibility to constrain the rates of processes such as CO2 assimilation, mineralization, and air-sea exchange. We demonstrate that phytoplankton production and respiration, and the related air-sea CO2 fluxes, are to a large degree controlling the isotopic composition of organic and inorganic carbon in the system. The isotopic composition is further, but to a lesser extent, influenced by river loads and deep water inflows as well as transformation of terrestrial organic carbon within the system. Changes in the isotopic composition over the 20th century have been dominated by two processes the preferential release of C-12 to the atmosphere in association with fossil fuel burning, and the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea related to increased nutrient loads under the second half of the century.

  • 31.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    External total alkalinity loads versus internal generation: The influence of nonriverine alkalinity sources in the Baltic Sea2014In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 28, no 11, p. 1358-1370Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we first present updated riverine total alkalinity (TA) loads to the various Baltic Sea sub-basins, based on monthly measurements in 82 of the major rivers that represent 85% of the total runoff. Simulations in the coupled physical-biogeochemical BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model) model show that these river loads together with North Sea water inflows are not sufficient to reproduce observed TA concentrations in the system, demonstrating the large influence from internal sources. Budget calculations indicate that the required internal TA generation must be similar to river loads in magnitude. The nonriverine source in the system amounts to about 2.4mmolm(-2) d(-1) on average. We argue here that the majority of this source is related to denitrification together with unresolved sediment processes such as burial of reduced sulfur and/or silicate weathering. This hypothesis is supported by studies on sediment processes on a global scale and also by data from sediment cores in the Baltic Sea. In a model simulation with all internal TA sources and sinks switched on, the net absorption of atmospheric CO2 increased by 0.78mol C m(-2) yr(-1) compared to a simulation where TA was treated as a passive tracer. Our results clearly illustrate how pelagic TA sources together with anaerobic mineralization in coastal sediments generate a significant carbon sink along the aquatic continuum, mitigating CO2 evasions from coastal and estuarine systems.

  • 32. Hong, Bongghi
    et al.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    McCrackin, Michelle
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Yershova, Alexandra
    Pakhomau, Aliaksandr
    Advances in NANI and NAPI accounting for the Baltic drainage basin: spatial and temporal trends and relationships to watershed TN and TP fluxes2017In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 133, no 3, p. 245-261Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to assess the progress toward eutrophication management goals, it is important to understand trends in land-based nutrient use. Here we present net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) for 2000 and 2010 for the Baltic Sea watershed. Overall, across the entire Baltic, between the 5-year periods centered on 2000 and 2010, NANI and NAPI decreased modestly by -6 and -4%, respectively, but with substantial regional variation, including major increases in the Gulf of Riga drainage basin (+19 and +58%, respectively) and decreases in the Danish Straits drainage basin (-25 and -40% respectively). The changes were due primarily to changes in mineral fertilizer use. Mineral fertilizers dominated inputs, at 57% of both NANI and NAPI in 2000, increasing to 68 and 70%, respectively, by 2010. Net food and feed imports declined over that period, corresponding to increased crop production; either fewer imports of food and feedstocks were required to feed humans and livestock, or more of these commodities were exported. A strong linear relationship exists between regional net nutrient inputs and riverine nutrient fluxes for both periods. About 17% of NANI and 4.7% of NAPI were exported to the sea in 2000; these relationships did not significantly differ from those for 2010. Changes in NANI from 2000 to 2010 across basins were directly proportional rather than linearly related to changes in total N (TN) fluxes to the sea (i.e., no change in NANI suggests no change in TN flux). Similarly, for all basins except those draining to the Baltic Proper, changes in NAPI were proportional to changes in total P (TP) fluxes. The Danish Straits decreased most between 2000 and 2010, where NANI and NAPI declined by 25 and 40%, respectively, and corresponding fluxes of TN and TP declined 31 and 18%, respectively. For the Baltic Proper, NAPI was relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, while riverine TP fluxes decreased 25%, due possibly to lagged effects of fertilizer reduction resulting from socio-political changes in the early 1990s or improvements in sewage treatment capabilities. For most regions, further reductions in NANI and NAPI could be achieved by more efficient production and greater substitution of manure for imported mineral fertilizers.

  • 33. Hong, Bongghi
    et al.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hägg, Hanna Eriksson
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Howarth, Robert W.
    Bouraoui, Faycal
    Evaluating regional variation of net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI/NAPI), major drivers, nutrient retention pattern and management implications in the multinational areas of Baltic Sea basin2012In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 227, p. 117-135Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic nitrogen/phosphorus input) Calculator Toolbox described in this paper is designed to address the consequences to Baltic Sea nutrient loads of the significant variation in agronomic practices and dietary preferences among European countries whose watersheds comprise the Baltic Sea basin. A primary objective of this work is to develop regional parameters and datasets for this budgeting tool. A previous version of the toolbox was applied to the entire contiguous United States to calculate NANI and its components (atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation and N in net food and feed imports). Here, it is modified for application to the Baltic Sea catchments, where coastal watersheds from several countries are draining to international waters. A similar accounting approach is taken for calculating NAPI, which includes fertilizer P application, P in net food and feed imports and non-food use of P by human. Regional variation of NANI/NAPI parameters (agricultural fixation rates, human intake rates and livestock intake and excretion rates) are estimated, and their impact on the regional nutrient budget and the riverine nutrient flux is evaluated. There is a distinct north-to-south gradient in NANI and NAPI across the Baltic Sea catchments, and regional nutrient inputs are strongly related to riverine nutrient fluxes. Analysis of regional nutrient retention pattern indicates that, for some countries, compliance to the Baltic Sea Action Plan would imply enormous changes in the agricultural sector.

  • 34.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Estrup Andersen, Hans
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gadegast, Mathias
    Giesler, Reiner
    Hartmann, Jens
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Huerdler, Jens
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte
    Venohr, Markus
    Weyhenmeyer, Gesa
    Environmental Impacts - Freshwater Biogeochemistry2015In: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC II Author Team, Springer, 2015, p. 307-336Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change effects on freshwater biogeochemistry and riverine loads of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea are not straight forward and are difficult to distinguish from other human drivers such as atmospheric deposition, forest and wetland management, eutrophication and hydrological alterations. Eutrophication is by far the most well-known factor affecting the biogeochemistry of the receiving waters in the various sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. However, the present literature review reveals that climate change is a compounding factor for all major drivers of freshwater biogeochemistry discussed here, although evidence is still often based on short-term and/or small-scale studies.

  • 35.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Geibel, Marc C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Anderson, Leif G.
    Björk, Göran
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Thornton, Brett F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ek, Jörgen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Semiletov, Igor
    Sea-air exchange patterns along the central and outer East Siberian Arctic Shelf as inferred from continuous CO2, stable isotope, and bulk chemistry measurements2017In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 31, no 7, p. 1173-1191Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This large-scale quasi-synoptic study gives a comprehensive picture of sea-air CO2 fluxes during the melt season in the central and outer Laptev Sea (LS) and East Siberian Sea (ESS). During a 7 week cruise we compiled a continuous record of both surface water and air CO2 concentrations, in total 76,892 measurements. Overall, the central and outer parts of the ESAS constituted a sink for CO2, and we estimate a median uptake of 9.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) or 6.6 Tg C yr(-1). Our results suggest that while the ESS and shelf break waters adjacent to the LS and ESS are net autotrophic systems, the LS is a net heterotrophic system. CO2 sea-air fluxes for the LS were 4.7 g C m(-2) yr(-1), and for the ESS we estimate an uptake of 7.2 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13(DIC) and delta C-13(CO2)) in the water column indicates that the LS is depleted in delta C-13(DIC) compared to the Arctic Ocean (ArcO) and ESS with an offset of 0.5% which can be explained by mixing of delta C-13(DIC)-depleted riverine waters and 4.0 Tg yr(-1) respiration of OCter; only a minor part (0.72 Tg yr(-1)) of this respired OCter is exchanged with the atmosphere. Property-mixing diagrams of total organic carbon and isotope ratio (delta C-13(SPE-DOC)) versus dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration diagram indicate conservative and nonconservative mixing in the LS and ESS, respectively. We suggest land-derived particulate organic carbon from coastal erosion as an additional significant source for the depleted delta C-13(DIC).

  • 36.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Geibel, Marc C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Sun, Xiaole
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    McCrackin, Michelle
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Stranne, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Jakobsson, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Sokolov, Alexander
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Norkko, Alf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Norkko, Joanna
    High Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane From the Coastal Baltic Sea at the End of a Summer Heat Wave2019In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, article id 493Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The summer heat wave in 2018 led to the highest recorded water temperatures since 1926 - up to 21 degrees C - in bottom coastal waters of the Baltic Sea, with implications for the respiration patterns in these shallow coastal systems. We applied cavity ring-down spectrometer measurements to continuously monitor carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface-water concentrations, covering the coastal archipelagos of Sweden and Finland and the open and deeper parts of the Northern Baltic Proper. This allowed us to (i) follow an upwelling event near the Swedish coast leading to elevated CO2 and moderate CH 4 outgassing, and (ii) to estimate CH4 sources and fluxes along the coast by investigating water column inventories and air-sea fluxes during a storm and an associated downwelling event. At the end of the heat wave, before the storm event, we found elevated CO2 (1583 mu atm) and CH4 (70 nmol/L) concentrations. During the storm, a massive CO2 sea-air flux of up to 274 mmol m(-2) d(-1) was observed. While water-column CO2 concentrations were depleted during several hours of the storm, CH4 concentrations remained elevated. Overall, we found a positive relationship between CO2 and CH4 wind-driven sea-air fluxes, however, the highest CH4 fluxes were observed at low winds whereas highest CO2 fluxes were during peak winds, suggesting different sources and processes controlling their fluxes besides wind. We applied a box-model approach to estimate the CH4 supply needed to sustain these elevated CH4 concentrations and the results suggest a large source flux of CH4 to the water column of 2.5 mmol m(-2) d(-1). These results are qualitatively supported by acoustic observations of vigorous and widespread outgassing from the sediments, with flares that could be traced throughout the water column penetrating the pycnocline and reaching the sea surface. The results suggest that the heat wave triggered CO2 and CH4 fluxes in the coastal zones that are comparable with maximum emission rates found in other hot spots, such as boreal and arctic lakes and wetlands. Further, the results suggest that heat waves are as important for CO2 and CH4 sea-air fluxes as the ice break up in spring.

  • 37.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Sundbom, M.
    Wulff, Fredrik
    Department of Systems Ecology.
    Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea: Past and possible future perspectives2007In: Hydrology and Earth System Science, Vol. 11, p. 1593-1607Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 38.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, C-M
    Sundbom, M
    Wulff, Fredrik
    Department of Systems Ecology.
    Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives2007In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 11, p. 1-15Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Rahm, Lars
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Tamminen, Timo
    von Bodungen, Bodo
    Silicon and the Baltic Sea: Long-term Si decrease in the Baltic Sea - A conceivable ecological risk?2008In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 73, no 3-4, p. 221-222Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 40.
    Humborg, Cristoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Borg, Hans
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Giesler, R.
    Ittekkot, V.
    CO2 supersaturation along the aquatic conduit in Swedish watersheds as constrained by terrestrial respiration, aquatic respiration and weathering2010In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 6, no 7, p. 1966-1978Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We tested the hypothesis that CO2 supersaturation along the aquatic conduit over Sweden can be explained by processes other than aquatic respiration. A first generalized-additive model (GAM) analysis evaluating the relationships between single water chemistry variables and pCO(2) in lakes and streams revealed that water chemistry variables typical for groundwater input, e.g., dissolved silicate (DSi) and Mg2+ had explanatory power similar to total organic carbon (TOC). Further GAM analyses on various lake size classes and stream orders corroborated the slightly higher explanatory power for DSi in lakes and Mg2+ for streams compared with TOC. Both DSi and TOC explained 22-46% of the pCO(2) variability in various lake classes (0.01-> 100 km2) and Mg2+ and TOC explained 11-41% of the pCO(2) variability in the various stream orders. This suggests that aquatic pCO(2) has a strong groundwater signature. Terrestrial respiration is a significant source of the observed supersaturation and we may assume that both terrestrial respiration and aquatic respiration contributed equally to pCO(2) efflux. pCO(2) and TOC concentrations decreased with lake size suggesting that the longer water residence time allow greater equilibration of CO2 with the atmosphere and in-lake mineralization of TOC. For streams, we observed a decreasing trend in pCO(2) with stream orders between 3 and 6. We calculated the total CO2 efflux from all Swedish lakes and streams to be 2.58 Tg C yr-1. Our analyses also demonstrated that 0.70 Tg C yr-1 are exported to the ocean by Swedish watersheds as HCO3- and CO(3)2- of which about 0.56 Tg C yr-1 is also a residual from terrestrial respiration and constitute a long-term sink for atmospheric CO2. Taking all dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes along the aquatic conduit into account will lower the estimated net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) by 2.02 Tg C yr-1, which corresponds to 10% of the NEE in Sweden.

  • 41.
    Jakobsson, Martin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Stranne, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    O'Regan, Matt
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Greenwood, Sarah L.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Weidner, Elizabeth
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Bathymetric properties of the Baltic Sea2019In: Ocean Science, ISSN 1812-0784, E-ISSN 1812-0792, Vol. 15, no 4, p. 905-924Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Baltic Sea bathymetric properties are analysed here using the newly released digital bathymetric model (DBM) by the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet). The analyses include hypsometry, volume, descriptive depth statistics, and kilometre-scale seafloor ruggedness, i.e. terrain heterogeneity, for the Baltic Sea as a whole as well as for 17 sub-basins defined by the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM). We compare the new EMODnet DBM with IOWTOPO the previously most widely used DBM of the Baltic Se aproduced by the Leibniz-Institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemiinde (IOW), which has served as the primary gridded bathymetric resource in physical and environmental studies for nearly two decades. The area of deep water exchange between the Bothnian Sea and the Northern Baltic Proper across the Aland Sea is specifically analysed in terms of depths and locations of critical bathymetric sills. The EMODnet DBM provides a bathymetric sill depth of 88 m at the northern side of the Aland Sea and 60 m at the southern side, differing from previously identified sill depths of 100 and 70 m, respectively. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry acquired from this deep water exchange path, where vigorous bottom currents interacted with the seafloor, allows us to assess what presently available DBMs are missing in terms of physical characterization of the seafloor. Our study highlights the need for continued work towards complete high-resolution mapping of the Baltic Sea seafloor.

  • 42.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Meidani, Roya
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    van der Velde, Ype
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model2015In: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, ISSN 1093-474X, E-ISSN 1752-1688, Vol. 51, no 2, p. 550-566Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land-management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high-flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.

  • 43.
    Lyon, S.W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Destouni, G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Giesler, R.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Seibert, J.
    Karlsson, J.
    Troch, P.A.
    Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis2009In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 13, p. 595-604Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as it moves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distribution of these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemical cycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due to climate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, direct observations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales larger than a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible to detect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-term streamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to the sub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flow analysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at an average rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimated thawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawing rates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region.

  • 44.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Hong, Bongghi
    Howarth, Robert W.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Savchuck, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture2018In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 18, no 6, p. 1843-1854Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

  • 45.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Howarth, Robert W.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    A Century of Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Large Drainage Basin2018In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 32, no 7, p. 1107-1122Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is growing evidence that the release of phosphorus (P) from legacy stores can frustrate efforts to reduce P loading to surface water from sources such as agriculture and human sewage. Less is known, however, about the magnitude and residence times of these legacy pools. Here we constructed a budget of net anthropogenic P inputs to the Baltic Sea drainage basin and developed a three-parameter, two-box model to describe the movement of anthropogenic P though temporary (mobile) and long-term (stable) storage pools. Phosphorus entered the sea as direct coastal effluent discharge and via rapid transport and slow, legacy pathways. The model reproduced past waterborne P loads and suggested an similar to 30-year residence time in the mobile pool. Between 1900 and 2013, 17 and 27 Mt P has accumulated in the mobile and stable pools, respectively. Phosphorus inputs to the sea have halved since the 1980s due to improvements in coastal sewage treatment and reductions associated with the rapid transport pathway. After decades of accumulation, the system appears to have shifted to a depletion phase; absent further reductions in net anthropogenic P input, future waterborne loads could decrease. Presently, losses from the mobile pool contribute nearly half of P loads, suggesting that it will be difficult to achieve substantial near-term reductions. However, there is still potential to make progress toward eutrophication management goals by addressing rapid transport pathways, such as overland flow, as well as mobile stores, such as cropland with large soil-P reserves.

  • 46.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Eriksson, H.
    Danielsson, Åsa
    Medina, M.R.
    Löfgren, S.
    Swaney, D.P.
    Rahm, Lars
    Modelling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: A large scale approach2007In: Ambio, Vol. 37, p. 119-128Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 47.
    Mörth, C-M
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Danielsson, Åsa
    Rodriguez Medina, Miguel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Löfgren, S
    Swaney, DP
    Rahm, Lars
    Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: A large-scale approach2007In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 36, no 2-3, p. 124-133Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 48. Omstedt, Anders
    et al.
    Edman, Moa
    Claremar, Bjorn
    Frodin, Peter
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hägg, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    Schurgers, Guy
    Smith, Benjamin
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Yurova, Alla
    Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid-base (pH) and oxygen balances2012In: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 64, p. 19586-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid-base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment-sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e. g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area - all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

  • 49. Omstedt, Anders
    et al.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Pempkowiak, Janusz
    Perttila, Matti
    Rutgersson, Anna
    Schneider, Bernd
    Smith, Benjamin
    Biogeochemical Control of the Coupled CO2-O-2 System of the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Results of Baltic-C2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 1, p. 49-59Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Past, present, and possible future changes in the Baltic Sea acid-base and oxygen balances were studied using different numerical experiments and a catchment-sea model system in several scenarios including business as usual, medium scenario, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. New CO2 partial pressure data provided guidance for improving the marine biogeochemical model. Continuous CO2 and nutrient measurements with high temporal resolution helped disentangle the biogeochemical processes. These data and modeling indicate that traditional understandings of the nutrient availability-organic matter production relationship do not necessarily apply to the Baltic Sea. Modeling indicates that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, increased mineralization and biological production will amplify the seasonal surface pH cycle. The direction and magnitude of future pH changes are mainly controlled by atmospheric CO2 concentration. Apart from decreasing pH, we project a decreasing calcium carbonate saturation state and increasing hypoxic area.

  • 50. Pastuszak, Marianna
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Witek, Zbigniew
    Sitek, Stanislaw
    Silicon dynamics in the Oder estuary, Baltic Sea2008In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 73, no 3-4, p. 250-262Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies on dissolved silicate (DSi) and biogenic silica (BSi) dynamics were carried out in the Oder estuary, Baltic Sea in 2000-2005. The Oder estuary proved to be an important component of the Oder River-Baltic Sea continuum where very intensive seasonal DSi uptake during spring and autumn, but also BSi regeneration during summer take place. Owing to the regeneration process annual DSi patterns in the river and the estuary distinctly differed; the annual patterns of DSi in the estuary showed two maxima and two minima in contrast to one maximum- and one minimum-pattern in the Oder River. F)Si concentrations in the river and in the estuary were highest in winter (200-250 mu mol dm(-3)) and lowest (often less than 1 mu mol dm(-3)) in spring, concomitant with diatom growth; such low values are known to be limiting for new diatom growth. Secondary DSi summer peaks at the estuary exit exceeded 100 mu mol dm(-3), and these maxima were followed by autumn minima coinciding with the autumn diatom bloom. Seasonal peaks in BSi concentrations (ca. 100 mu mol dm(-3)) occurred during the spring diatom bloom in die Oder River. Mass balance calculations of DSi and BSi showed that DSi + BSi import to the estuary over a two year period was 103.2 kt and that can be compared with the DSi export of 98.5 kt. The difference between these numbers gives room for ca. 2.5 kt BSi to be annually exported to the Baltic Sea. Sediment cores studies point to BSi annual accumulation on the level of 2.5 kt BSi. BSi import to the estuary is on the level of ca. 10.5 kt, thus ca. 5 kt of BSi is annually converted into the DSi, increasing the pool of DSi that leaves the system. BSi concentrations being ca. 2 times higher at the estuary entrance than at its exit remain in a good agreement with the DSi and BSi budgeting presented in the paper.

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