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  • 1. Berling, Peter
    et al.
    Eng-Larsson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Environmental implications of transport contract choice - capacity investment and pricing under volume and capacity contracts2017In: European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, E-ISSN 1872-6860, Vol. 261, no 1, p. 129-142Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Inspired by the observation that capacity contracts are used by some retailers to increase their transport provider's investments in green transport solutions, we investigate and compare a service provider's optimal investment, and its environmental implications under a volume and a capacity contract respectively. We solve the service provider's investment problem under the assumption that the retailer uses the service to replenish a warehouse with storable goods. We then show that a capacity contract leads to more green transports, but not necessarily a larger investment in green transport solutions. At the same time, the optimal solution involves heavy investment in inventory at the retailer. The investment in inventory is non-decreasing in the cost benefit of the green transports, which may have a significant negative environmental impact. The implication is that a capacity contract will lead to better environmental performance than a volume contract only when the green transports' cost benefit is within a given interval. Whether the capacity contract is the more profitable option for the service provider within this interval depends on inventory related costs and the relative environmental costs from transportation and inventory. Interestingly, owing to this, regulation that target the price of the conventional vehicles, such as a carbon tax, may lead to both an increase or a decrease in environmental performance.

  • 2. Ekström, Andreas
    et al.
    Eng Larsson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Isaksson, Olov
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Kurland, Lisa
    Nordberg, Martin
    The effect of a terrorist attack on emergency department inflow: an observation study using difference-in-differences methodology2019In: Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine, ISSN 1757-7241, E-ISSN 1757-7241, Vol. 27, article id 57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Study objectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate how the terrorist attack in Stockholm, Sweden affected patient inflow to the general emergency departments (EDs) in close proximity of the attack. The study analyzed if, and to what extent, the attack impacted ED inflow during the following days and weeks.MethodsIn a retrospective observational study, anonymized aggregated data on ED arrivals (inflow of patients) to all seven of the EDs in the Stockholm County was analyzed using the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimator. The control groups were the affected hospitals in the years prior to the terrorist attack. The number of ED visits was retrieved from the Stockholm County Council administrative database.ResultsThe study shows a statistically significant reduction in overall ED inflow of 7-9% following the attack. The effect was strongest initially after the attack, and ED inflow regained normal levels within approximately three weeks' time, without any significant rebound effect. The effect on ED inflow also decreased with distance from ground zero, and was not significant further away than 10km.ConclusionThe results showed that ED inflow was significantly decreased in the weeks immediately following the Stockholm terrorist attack. The reasons for this cannot be fully explained in this observational study. However, the results suggest that some patients actively choose when, where and if they should go to the ED.

  • 3. Ekström, Andreas
    et al.
    Eng-Larsson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Isaksson, Olov
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Kurland, Lisa
    Nordberg, Martin
    Changes in Emergency Department Patient Inflow after a Terrorist Attack in Sweden2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the impact the terrorist attack in downtown Stockholm had on the inflow of patients to the emergency departments of Stockholm's hospitals. Controlling for the initial shock to infrastructure, we find that the inflow was reduced by 8% over two weeks following the attack. After two weeks the inflow returned to pre-attack levels, without any "rebound effect". The results indicate that many emergency department visits are not urgent, and that these patients may self-select to cancel service under certain circumstances.

  • 4.
    Eng Larsson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Isaksson, Olov
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Tillgänglighet i handeln - avgörande på både kort och lång sikt2018In: Supply Chain Effect, ISSN 2000-8457, no 6, p. 12-14Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 5.
    Eng-Larsson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Steeneck, Daniel W.
    Rice JR., James B.
    Retail’s Phantom Inventory Menace, or the Ghosts of Holidays Present2016In: The Wall Street Journal, ISSN 0921-9986Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 6. Steeneck, Daniel
    et al.
    Eng-Larsson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    The Baum–Welch algorithm with limiting distribution constraints2018In: Operations Research Letters, ISSN 0167-6377, E-ISSN 1872-7468, Vol. 46, no 6, p. 563-567Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a method of incorporating limiting distribution information in the Baum–Welch algorithm for estimating parameters of discrete-time, finite-state, Hidden Markov Models. We find that having, even imperfect, limiting distribution information can dramatically improve transition probability estimates. Additionally, we find that when (1) the underlying process is weakly correlated with the observable signal, and (2) the length of the data sequence is short, the additional information provided by the limiting distribution is substantial.

  • 7. Steeneck, Daniel
    et al.
    Eng-Larsson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
    Jauffred, Francisco
    Estimating demand for substitutable products when inventory records are unreliable2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a procedure for estimating demand for substitutable products when the inventory record is unreliable and only validated infrequently and irregularly. The procedure uses a structural model of demand and inventory progression, which is estimated using a modied version of the Expectation Maximization-method. The procedure leads to asymptotically unbiased estimates without any restrictive assumptions about substitution patterns or that inventory records are periodically known with certainty. The procedure converges quickly also for large product categories, which makes it suitable for implementation at retailers or manufacturers that need to run the analysis for hundreds of categories or stores at the same time. We use the procedure to highlight the importance of considering inventory reliability problems when estimating demand, rst through simulation and then by applying the procedure to a data set from a major US retailer. The results show that for the product category in consideration, ignoring inventory reliability problems leads to demand estimates that on average underestimate demand by 5%. It also results in total lost sales estimates that account for only a fraction of actual lost sales.

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