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  • 1.
    Andersson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nykvist, Björn
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    A social-ecological analysis of ecosystem services in two different farming systems2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. 102-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this exploratory study we use existing in situ qualitative and quantitative data on biophysical and social indicators to compare two contrasting Swedish farming systems (low intensity and high intensity) with regard to ecosystem service supply and demand of a broad suite of services. We show that the value (demand) placed on a service is not necessarily connected to the quantity (supply) of the service, most clearly shown for the services recreation, biodiversity, esthetic experience, identity, and cultural heritage. To better capture this complexity we argue for the need to develop portfolios of indicators for different ecosystem services and to further investigate the different aspects of supply and demand. The study indicates that available data are often ill-suited to answer questions about local delivery of services. If ecosystem services are to be included in policy, planning, and management, census data need to be formatted and scaled appropriately.

  • 2.
    Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Levi, Lea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden; University of Split, Croatia.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Rogberg, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins2015In: Earths Future, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 3, no 6, p. 206-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

  • 3. Campbell, Bruce M.
    et al.
    Beare, Douglas J.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Hall-Spencer, Jason M.
    Ingram, John S. I.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Ortiz, Rodomiro
    Ramankutty, Navin
    Sayer, Jeffrey A.
    Shindell, Drew
    Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries2017In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 22, no 4, article id 8Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore the role of agriculture in destabilizing the Earth system at the planetary scale, through examining nine planetary boundaries, or safe limits: land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, climate change, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, and introduction of novel entities. Two planetary boundaries have been fully transgressed, i.e., are at high risk, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows, and agriculture has been the major driver of the transgression. Three are in a zone of uncertainty i.e., at increasing risk, with agriculture the major driver of two of those, land-system change and freshwater use, and a significant contributor to the third, climate change. Agriculture is also a significant or major contributor to change for many of those planetary boundaries still in the safe zone. To reduce the role of agriculture in transgressing planetary boundaries, many interventions will be needed, including those in broader food systems.

  • 4.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Augustsson, Anna
    Balfors, Berit
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Johansson, Emma
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Sweden.
    Juston, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Levi, Lea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. The Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden; University of Split, Croatia.
    Olofsson, Bo
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Quin, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Åström, Mats
    Cvetkovic, Vladimir
    Needs and means to advance science, policy and management understanding of the freshwater system – A synthesis report2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Fragmented and inconsistent understanding of the freshwater system limits our ability to achieve water security and sustainability under the human-driven changes occurring in the Anthropocene. To advance system-level understanding of freshwater, gaps and inconsistencies in knowledge, data, representations and links of processes and subsystems need to be identified and bridged under consideration of the freshwater system as a continuous whole. 

    Based on such identification, a freshwater system conceptualization is developed in this report, which emphasizes four essential, yet often neglected system aspects:

    i) Distinction of coastal divergent catchments.

    ii) Four main zones (surface, subsurface, coastal, observation) of different types of freshwater change.

    iii) Water pathways as system-coupling agents that link and partition water change among the four change zones.

    iv) Direct interactions with the anthroposphere as integral system pathways across the change zones.

    We explain and exemplify some key implications of these aspects, identifying in the process also distinct patterns of human-driven changes in large-scale water fluxes and nutrient loads.

    The present conceptualization provides a basis for common inter- and trans-disciplinary understanding and systematic characterization of the freshwater system function and its changes, and of approaches to their modeling and monitoring. This can be viewed and used as a unifying checklist that can advance science, policy and management of freshwater and related environmental changes across various scales and world regions.

  • 5.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Basu, Nandita
    Cohen, Matthew J.
    Dahlke, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jawitz, James W.
    Juston, John
    Karlsson, Elin M.
    Koussis, Antonis D.
    Lyon, Steve
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Mazi, Katerina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Rao, Suresh C.
    van der Velde, Ype
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Vercauteren, Nikki
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydro-Biogeochemical and Environmental-Management Functions of Wetland Networks in Landscapes2012In: 9th INTECOL International Wetlands Conference, Wetlands in a Complex World: Conference Abstracts, 2012, p. 915-Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A main application goal of ecohydrological science is to amplify opportunities of achieving water quality improvements, biodiversity enhancements and sustainable development, by improved understanding and use of ecosystem properties as a management tool. This paper draws on and synthesizes main result implications for the function and possible enhanced use of wetland networks in the landscape as such a tool, from a series of hydro-biogeochemical and environmental economics studies of nutrient/pollutant loading and abatement in different Swedish hydrological catchments. Results show large potential of wetland networks to reduce the cost of abating nutrient and metal loads within and from hydrological catchments, and emphasize some main research questions for further investigations of actual possibilities to realize this potential. The questions regard in particular the ability of wetland networks to extend the travel times and reduce the uncertainty of hydrological nutrient/pollutant transport through catchments.

    The paper further presents and discusses some main joint conclusions of the participants in a recently held International Workshop on Ecohydrology and Integrated Water Resource Management (1) at the Navarino Environmental Observatory in Messinia, Greece (2), regarding essential goals for collaborative international efforts in wetland network research. The goals include to investigate on different spatiotemporal scales and in different world regions: a) the dynamics of natural and managed wetland networks across a gradient of different climate, human disturbance, energy and organization conditions; b) the reciprocal interactions between wetland networks and associated hydrological catchments; c) how climate change and different human activities in the wetland network catchments influence these interactions (in b) and generally the ecohydrology of individual wetlands and the whole wetland networks; and d) the ecosystem services provided by networks of wetlands.

  • 6.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy production2013In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 213-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrological change is a central part of global change(1-3). Its drivers in the past need to be understood and quantified for accurate projection of disruptive future changes(4). Here we analyse past hydro-climatic, agricultural and hydropower changes from twentieth century data for nine major Swedish drainage basins, and synthesize and compare these results with other regional(5-7) and global(2) assessments of hydrological change by irrigation and deforestation. Cross-regional comparison shows similar increases of evapotranspiration by non-irrigated agriculture and hydropower as for irrigated agriculture. In the Swedish basins, non-irrigated agriculture has also increased, whereas hydropower has decreased temporal runoff variability. A global indication of the regional results is a net total increase of evapotranspiration that is larger than a proposed associated planetary boundary(8). This emphasizes the need for climate and Earth system models to account for different human uses of water as anthropogenic drivers of hydro-climatic change. The present study shows how these drivers and their effects can be distinguished and quantified for hydrological basins on different scales and in different world regions. This should encourage further exploration of greater basin variety for better understanding of anthropogenic hydro-climatic change.

  • 7.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Van der Velde, Ype
    Lyon, Steve
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Från nederbörd till flöden: Vad är avgörande i processen?2012Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 8.
    Elmhagen, Bodil
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Angerbjörn, Anders
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Borgström, Sara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boyd, Emily
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Reading, England.
    Cousins, Sara A. O.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dalen, Love
    Ehrlén, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Ermold, Matti
    Hambäck, Peter A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Hedlund, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Hylander, Kristoffer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Lagerholm, Vendela K.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology. Swedish Museum of Natural History, Sweden.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nykvist, Björn
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Pasanen-Mortensen, Marianne
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Plue, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    van der Velde, Ype
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Wageningen University & Research Center, Netherlands.
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 1, article id UNSP 23Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

  • 9. Hasper, Thomas B.
    et al.
    Wallin, Göran
    Lamba, Shubhangi
    Hall, Marianne
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Linder, Sune
    Medhurst, Jane L.
    Räntfors, Mats
    Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.
    Uddling, Johan
    Water use by Swedish boreal forests in a changing climate2016In: Functional Ecology, ISSN 0269-8463, E-ISSN 1365-2435, Vol. 30, no 5, p. 690-699Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    1. The rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and temperature have the potential to substantially affect the terrestrial water and energy balance by altering the stomatal conductance and transpiration of trees. 2. Many models assume decreases in stomatal conductance and plant water use under rising [CO2], which has been used as a plausible explanation for the positive global trend in river run-off over the past century. Plant water use is, however, also affected by changes in temperature, precipitation and land use, and there is yet no consensus about the contribution of different drivers to temporal trends of evapotranspiration (ET) and river run-off. 3. In this study, we assessed water-use responses to climate change by using both long-term monitoring and experimental data in Swedish boreal forests. Historical trends and patterns in ET of large-scale boreal landscapes were determined using climate and run-off data from the past 50 years, while explicit tree water-use responses to elevated [CO2] and/or air temperature were examined in a whole-tree chamber experiment using mature Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees. 4. The results demonstrated that ET estimated from water budgets at the catchment scale increased by 18% over the past 50 years while run-off did not significantly change. The increase in ET was related to increasing precipitation and a steady increase in forest standing biomass over time. The whole-tree chamber experiment showed that Norway spruce trees did not save water under elevated [CO2] and that experimentally elevated air temperature did not increase transpiration as decreased stomatal conductance cancelled the effect of higher vapour pressure deficit in warmed air. 5. Our findings have important implications for projections of future water use of European boreal coniferous forests, indicating that changes in precipitation and standing biomass are more important than the effects of elevated [CO2] or temperature on transpiration rates.

  • 10.
    Jantze, Elin J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    The state of dissolved carbon export across boreal and tundra environments in ScandinaviaIn: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Changes in the Freshwater System: Distinguishing Climate and Landscape Drivers2015Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Freshwater is a vital resource that circulates between the atmosphere, the land and the sea. Understanding and quantifying changes to the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff and water storage change in the landscape are required for assessing changes to freshwater availability. However, the partitioning processes and their changes are complex due to multiple change drivers and effects. This thesis investigates and aims to identify and separate the effects of atmospheric climate change and various landscape drivers on long-term freshwater change. This is done based on hydroclimatic, land-use and water-use data from the beginning of the twentieth century up to present times and across different regions and scales, from catchment to global. The analyzed landscape drivers include historic developments of irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture and flow regulation. The thesis uses and develops further a data-motivated approach to interpret available hydroclimatic and landscape data for identification of water change drivers and effects, expanding the approach application from local to continental and global scales. Based on this approach development, the thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of landscape drivers against the background of multiple coexisting drivers influencing worldwide freshwater change, within and among hydrological basins. Globally, landscape drivers are needed to explain more than 70% of the historic hydroclimatic changes, of which a considerable proportion may be directly human-driven. These landscape- and human-driven water changes need to be considered and accounted for also in modeling and projection of changes to the freshwater system on land.

  • 12.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Baccard, Matthieu
    Narinesingh, Pramenath
    Gaskin, Susan
    Cooper, Vincent
    Assessing the Role of a Limestone Quarry as Sediment Source in a Developing Tropical Catchment2016In: Land Degradation and Development, ISSN 1085-3278, E-ISSN 1099-145X, Vol. 27, no 4, p. 1064-1074Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Impact assessments on river systems of the combined effect of bed and suspended sediment loads from quarries are difficult to find. In this study, bed and suspended loads were measured to determine the impact of a 20-ha limestone quarry on the river system of its 5,000-ha steep, diverse land use/land cover but mostly forested catchment. A network of hydrologic and sediment monitoring instruments was deployed over the catchment during two separate study periods when sediment loadings were measured from captured storms. Results showed that the quarry stood to make a disproportionately large contribution to the catchment's estimated 2.1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) suspended sediment load. Large storm events contributed most of the loadings with five events supplying 92% of total loadings at the outlet. A paired method approach to compare suspended sediment loads between two subcatchments showed that during eight storm events, the quarry yielded between 2 and 49.2 Mg ha(-1) per event, whereas the forest never yielded more than 0.1 Mg ha(-1). Furthermore, the contribution of sediments from the quarry to bed load was more than 75% at a section located 1.2 km downstream. Future management activities to reduce sediment and bed loads, not only from this catchment but also from all others with similar land use/land covers, should focus on improving quarry operations.

  • 13.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Florida International University, United States of America.
    Brown, Ian
    Castellazzi, Pascal
    Espinosa, Luisa
    Guittard, Alice
    Hong, Sang-Hoon
    Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.
    Wdowinski, Shimon
    Assessment of hydrologic connectivity in an ungauged wetland with InSAR observations2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 2, article id 024003Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) is one of the world's most productive tropical wetlands and one that has witnessed some of the greatest recorded dieback of mangroves. Human-driven loss of hydrologic connectivity by roads, artificial channels and water flow regulation appears to be the reason behind mangrove mortality in this ungauged wetland. In this study, we determined the CGSM's current state of hydrologic connectivity by combining a remote sensing technique, termed as Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with a hydrologic study of river water discharge. For this research, we processed 29 ALOS-PALSAR acquisitions taken during the period 2007-2011 and generated 66 interferograms that provide information on relative surface water level changes. We found that change in water discharge upstream on the main tributary of the CGSM could explain at most 17% of the variance of the change in water level in the CGSM. Fresh water inputs into the wetland were identified only when the mean daily water discharge in the river exceeded 700m(3) s(-1), which corresponds to only 30% of the days during the period. The interferogram analysis also revealed that artificial channels within the wetland serve as barriers to water flow and contribute to the overall loss in hydrologic connectivity. We recommend increasing fresh water inputs from the Magdalena River by reducing water regulation of fresh water from the river and improving connectivity on either side of the artificial channels crossing the CGSM. This study emphasizes the potential of the application of wetland InSAR to determine hydrologic connectivity in wetlands that are completely or poorly ungauged and to define the necessary guidelines for wetland hydrologic restoration.

  • 14.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Cory, Neil
    Arheimer, Berit
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    van der Velde, Ype
    Hasper, Thomas B.
    Teutschbein, Claudia
    Uddling, Johan
    Dominant effect of increasing forest biomass on evapotranspiration: interpretations of movement in Budyko space2018In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 567-580Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    During the last 6 decades, forest biomass has increased in Sweden mainly due to forest management, with a possible increasing effect on evapotranspiration. However, increasing global CO2 concentrations may also trigger physiological water-saving responses in broadleaf tree species, and to a lesser degree in some needleleaf conifer species, inducing an opposite effect. Additionally, changes in other forest attributes may also affect evapotranspiration. In this study, we aimed to detect the dominating effect(s) of forest change on evapotranspiration by studying changes in the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, known as the evaporative ratio, during the period 1961-2012. We first used the Budyko framework of water and energy availability at the basin scale to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space of 65 temperate and boreal basins during this period. We found that movements in Budyko space could not be explained by climatic changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 60% of these basins, suggesting the existence of other dominant drivers of hydroclimatic change. In both the temperate and boreal basin groups studied, a negative climatic effect on the evaporative ratio was counteracted by a positive residual effect. The positive residual effect occurred along with increasing standing forest biomass in the temperate and boreal basin groups, increasing forest cover in the temperate basin group and no apparent changes in forest species composition in any group. From the three forest attributes, standing forest biomass was the one that could explain most of the variance of the residual effect in both basin groups. These results further suggest that the water-saving response to increasing CO2 in these forests is either negligible or overridden by the opposite effect of the increasing forest biomass. Thus, we conclude that increasing standing forest biomass is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes in Swedish forests.

  • 15.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Desormeaux, Amanda
    Hedlund, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jawitz, James W.
    Clerici, Nicola
    Piemontese, Luigi
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Alexandra Rodríguez-Rodriguez, Jenny
    Adolfo Anaya, Jesús
    Blanco-Libreros, Juan F.
    Borja, Sonia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Celi, Jorge
    Chalov, Sergey
    Chun, Kwok Pan
    Cresso, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dessu, Shimelis Behailu
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Downing, Andrea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Espinosa, Luisa
    Ghajarnia, Navid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Girard, Pierre
    Gutiérrez, Álvaro G.
    Hansen, Amy
    Hu, Tengfei
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Kalantary, Zahra
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Labbaci, Adnane
    Licero-Villanueva, Lucia
    Livsey, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Machotka, Ewa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Asian, Middle Eastern and Turkish Studies.
    McCurley, Kathryn
    Palomino-Ángel, Sebastián
    Pietron, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Price, René
    Ramchunder, Sorain J.
    Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza
    Ricaurte, Luisa Fernanda
    Dahir, Lula
    Rodríguez, Erasmo
    Salgado, Jorge
    Sannel, A. Britta K.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Carolina Santos, Ana
    Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, Samaneh
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Sjöberg, Ylva
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Sun, Lian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Beijing Normal University, China.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Vigouroux, Guillaume
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Xu, Diandian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Hohai University, China.
    Zamora, David
    Ziegler, Alan D.
    Åhlén, Imenne
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Priorities and Interactions of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with Focus on Wetlands2019In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 3, article id 619Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wetlands are often vital physical and social components of a country's natural capital, as well as providers of ecosystem services to local and national communities. We performed a network analysis to prioritize Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for sustainable development in iconic wetlands and wetlandscapes around the world. The analysis was based on the information and perceptions on 45 wetlandscapes worldwide by 49 wetland researchers of the Global Wetland Ecohydrological Network (GWEN). We identified three 2030 Agenda targets of high priority across the wetlandscapes needed to achieve sustainable development: Target 6.3-Improve water quality; 2.4-Sustainable food production; and 12.2-Sustainable management of resources. Moreover, we found specific feedback mechanisms and synergies between SDG targets in the context of wetlands. The most consistent reinforcing interactions were the influence of Target 12.2 on 8.4-Efficient resource consumption; and that of Target 6.3 on 12.2. The wetlandscapes could be differentiated in four bundles of distinctive priority SDG-targets: Basic human needs, Sustainable tourism, Environmental impact in urban wetlands, and Improving and conserving environment. In general, we find that the SDG groups, targets, and interactions stress that maintaining good water quality and a wise use of wetlandscapes are vital to attaining sustainable development within these sensitive ecosystems.

  • 16.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Comment on “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet"2015In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 348, no 6240, p. 1217-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Steffen et al. (Research Articles, 13 February 2015, p. 736) recently assessed current global freshwater use, finding it to be well below a corresponding planetary boundary. However, they ignored recent scientific advances implying that the global consumptive use of freshwater may have already crossed the associated planetary boundary.

  • 17.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Developing water change spectra and distinguishingchange drivers worldwide2014In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 41, no 23, p. 8377-8386Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The separate and combined effects of different drivers of change to water fluxes and resources onland (CWOL) remain difficult to distinguish and largely unknown, particularly at a global scale. Our studyanalyzes CWOL during the period 1901–2008, based on available hydroclimatic data for up to 859 hydrologicalbasins. We develop a worldwide spectrum of change magnitudes and directions in Budyko space, from whichwe distinguish climate and landscape drivers of CWOL. We find that landscape drivers (e.g., changes in landand water use, water storage or water phase) are needed to explain CWOL in at least 74% of the basins studied.The water change effects of such landscape drivers are mostly opposite to those of atmospheric climatechange. The change spectrum approach we developed provides a useful tool for quantifying and visualizingCWOL and for distinguishing the effects of climate and landscape drivers across regions and scales.

  • 18.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Hydroclimatic changes worldwide: distinguishing freshwater signals of flow regulation and irrigation effectsIn: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study analyzes worldwide hydroclimatic changes over the period 1900-2009 based on observation data for 99 large hydrological basins across all continents. Worldwide, the observed atmospheric changes in temperature and (uncorrected or bias-corrected) precipitation over land cannot alone explain corresponding changes in evapotranspiration and runoff on land. Additional landscape drivers are needed to explain the latter. Possible effects of river system fragmentation and flow regulation (FFR) as such drivers are here investigated based on independent categorization and parameterization of FFR impact in the studied basins. Consistent signals of FFR-driven change are distinguished and include decrease in the long-term average runoff and the coefficient of short-term variation of runoff; these decreases are greater for basins with higher flow regulation factor. The signals also include increase in evapotranspiration relative to precipitation for strongly FFR-affected basins; this increase is greater for basins with higher flow regulation factor and higher irrigation index. These FFR-related change signals are distinguished consistently and directly from worldwide observation data, against the background of large change variability among basins and several coexisting drivers of water change for each basin. These findings should be used and accounted for in further quantification and projection of global freshwater change.

  • 19.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint2015In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 350, no 6265, p. 1248-1251Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 +/- 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 +/- 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling.

  • 20.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Florida International University, USA.
    Licero, Lucia
    Åhlen, Imenne
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Alexandra Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Jenny
    Guittard, Alice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Hylin, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Bolanos, Jiner
    Jawitz, James
    Wdowinski, Shimon
    Martinez, Oscar
    Fernanda Espinosa, Luisa
    Effects of Hydroclimatic Change and Rehabilitation Activities on Salinity and Mangroves in the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta, Colombia2018In: Wetlands (Wilmington, N.C.), ISSN 0277-5212, E-ISSN 1943-6246, Vol. 38, no 4, p. 755-767Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM), Colombia is possibly the wetland that has experienced the largest mangrove mortality on record due to modification of hydrologic connectivity and consequent hypersaline conditions. We used hydroclimatic, salinity and mangrove basal area data collected in five stations from 1993 to 2015 to study the relation between ongoing mangrove recovery, changes in salinity in the wetland and hydroclimatic changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and freshwater inputs. We found that until 2015, the mangrove ecosystems in CGSM are in general terms in a path of recovery due to the combined effect of favorable hydroclimatic conditions and management operations to increase freshwater inputs into the wetland. We observed in three stations that the annual growth of mangrove basal area increased as pore water salinity decreased. Regarding surface water salinity, El Nino/Southern Oscillation explained most of the inter-annual variability in the wet season by regulating freshwater and in the dry season by regulating potential evaporation from the wetland. However, persistent channel reopening appeared to be the cause for the largest salinity decreases, whereas lack of persistent dredging slowed recovery in other areas. The monitoring of the mangrove-salinity-hydroclimate system must continue in order to increase its understanding and to avoid more recurring episodes of mangrove mortality.

  • 21.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Multimethod assessment of evapotranspiration shifts due to non-irrigated agricultural development in Sweden2013In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 484, p. 55-62Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    During the 20th century, Sweden underwent a persistent agricultural development. In this study, we use and combine historical hydroclimatic and agricultural data to investigate how this large scale change of land use, and subsequent intensification of crop production, affected regional hydrology in two adjacent Swedish drainage basins. We find a main increase of evapotranspiration (ET) as cultivated area and/or crop production increased during the period 1901-1940. Thereafter, ET stabilized at a new higher level. Comparison between the data given, water balance constrained ET quantification (ETwb), and a range of different comparative estimates of purely climate driven ET (ETclim) shows that only 31% of the steep 1901-1940 increase of ETwb can be explained by climate change alone. The remaining 69% of this ETwb shift, which occurred in both investigated drainage basins, is instead explainable to large degree by the regional land use conversion from seminatural grasslands to cultivated land and associated enhanced productivity of herbaceous species.

  • 22.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Royal Institute of Technology KTH, Sweden; University of Split, Croatia.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Andricevic, Roko
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no 7, p. 624-634Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

  • 23.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Jantze, Elin J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Winterdahl, Mattias
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    WHY MONITOR CARBON IN HIGH-ALPINE STREAMS?2016In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography, ISSN 0435-3676, E-ISSN 1468-0459, Vol. 98, no 3, p. 237-245Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this short communication, we report on dissolved organic and inorganic carbon concentrations from a summer stream monitoring campaign at the main hydrological catchment of the Tarfala Research Station in northern Sweden. Further, we place these unique high-alpine observations in the context of a relevant subset of Sweden's national monitoring programme. Our analysis shows that while the monitoring programme (at least for total organic carbon) may have relatively good representativeness across a range of forest coverages, alpine/tundra environments are potentially underrepresented. As for dissolved inorganic carbon, there is currently no national monitoring in Sweden. Since the selection of stream water monitoring locations and monitored constituents at the national scale can be motivated by any number of goals (or limitations), monitoring at the Tarfala Research Station along with other research catchment sites across Fennoscandia becomes increasingly important and can offer potential complementary data necessary for improving process understanding. Research catchment sites (typically not included in national monitoring programmes) can help cover small-scale landscape features and thus complement national monitoring thereby improving the ability to capture hot spots and hot moments of biogeochemical export. This provides a valuable baseline of current conditions in high-alpine environments against which to gauge future changes in response to potential climatic and land cover shifts.

  • 24. Mills, Gina
    et al.
    Sharps, Katrina
    Simpson, David
    Pleijel, Håkan
    Broberg, Malin
    Uddling, Johan
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Davies, William J.
    Dentener, Frank
    Van den Berg, Maurits
    Agrawal, Madhoolika
    Agrawal, Shahibhushan B.
    Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.
    Büker, Patrick
    Emberson, Lisa
    Feng, Zhaozhong
    Harmens, Harry
    Hayes, Felicity
    Kobayashi, Kazuhiko
    Paoletti, Elena
    Van Dingenen, Rita
    Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production2018In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 24, no 8, p. 3560-3574Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.

  • 25.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Hydro-climatic and lake change patterns in Arctic permafrost and non-permafrost areas2015In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 529, p. 134-145Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates patterns of lake-area and hydro-climatic change in Arctic river basins, and possible influence of permafrost change reflected in such patterns. A salient change pattern, emerging across all investigated basins in both permafrost and non-permafrost areas, is an opposite change direction in runoff (R) from that in precipitation (P). To explain this change contrast, an increase (decrease) in relative water-balance constrained evapotranspiration ETwb/P is required where R decreases (increases). Increasing temporal variability of daily river discharge (sdQ) is found in all basins with spatially extensive lake decrease, which also exhibit decrease in ELwb/P. Clear indication of basin-wide permafrost thaw is found in only one basin, and is possible in two more, but unlikely in the largest of the total four investigated permafrost basins.

  • 26.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydro-climatic and lake change patterns in Arctic permafrost and non-permafrost areasIn: Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Palomino-Ángel, Sebastián
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Universidad de Medellín, Colombia.
    Anaya-Acevedo, Jesús A.
    Simard, Marc
    Liao, Tien-Hao
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Analysis of Floodplain Dynamics in the Atrato River Colombia Using SAR Interferometry2019In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 5, article id 875Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Floodplain water flows have large volumetric flowrates and high complexity in space and time that are difficult to understand using water level gauges. We here analyze the spatial and temporal fluctuations of surface water flows in the floodplain of the Atrato River, Colombia, in order to evaluate their hydrological connectivity. The basin is one of the rainiest areas of the world with wetland ecosystems threatened by the expansion of agriculture and mining activities. We used 16 Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radars (DInSAR) phase observations from the ALOS-PALSAR L-band instrument acquired between 2008-2010 to characterize the flow of surface water. We were able to observe water level change in vegetated wetland areas and identify flooding patterns. In the lower basin, flow patterns are conditioned by fluctuations in the levels of the main river channel, whereas in the middle basin, topography and superficial channels strongly influence the flow and connectivity. We found that the variations in water level in a station on the main channel 87 km upstream explained more than 56% of the variations in water level in the floodplain. This result shows that, despite current expansion of agriculture and mining activities, there remain significant hydrological connectivity between wetlands and the Atrato River. This study demonstrates the use of DInSAR for a spatially comprehensive monitoring of the Atrato River basin hydrology. For the first time, we identified the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water flow of the region. We recommend these observations serve as a baseline to monitor the potential impact of ongoing human activities on surface water flows across the Atrato River basin.

  • 28.
    Piemontese, Luigi
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Future Hydroclimatic Impacts on Africa: Beyond the Paris Agreement2019In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 7, no 7, p. 748-761Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Projections of global warming in Africa are generally associated with increasing aridity and decreasing water availability. However, most freshwater assessments focus on single hydroclimatic indicators (e.g., runoff, precipitation, or aridity), lacking analysis on combined changes in evaporative demand, and water availability on land. There remains a high degree of uncertainty over water implications at the basin scale, in particular for the most water-consuming sector-food production. Using the Budyko framework, we perform an assessment of future hydroclimatic change for the 50 largest African basins, finding a consistent pattern of change in four distinct regions across the two main emission scenarios corresponding to the Paris Agreement, and the business as usual. Although the Paris Agreement is likely to lead to less intense changes when compared to the business as usual, both scenarios show the same pattern of hydroclimatic shifts, suggesting a potential roadmap for hydroclimatic adaptation. We discuss the social-ecological implications of the projected hydroclimatic shifts in the four regions and argue that climate policies need to be complemented by soil and water conservation practices to make the best use of future water resources.

  • 29.
    Quin, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Dissecting the ecosystem service of large-scale pollutant retention: The role of wetlands and other landscape features2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. s127-S137Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Various features of a landscape contribute to the regulating ecosystem service of reducing waterborne pollutant loading to downstream environments. At local scales, wetlands have been shown to be effective in retaining pollutants. Here, we investigate the landscape-scale contribution to pollutant retention provided by multiple wetlands. We develop a general analytical model which shows that the retention contribution of wetlands and other landscape features is only significant if a large fraction of the total waterborne pollutant transport passes through them. Next, by means of a statistical analysis of official data, we quantify the nutrient retention contribution of wetlands for multiple sub-catchments in two Swedish Water Management Districts. We compare this with the retention contribution of two other landscape features: the waterborne transport distance and major lakes. The landscape-scale retention contribution of wetlands is undetectable; rather, the other two landscape features account for much of the total nutrient retention.

  • 30.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jawitz, James W.
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Basu, Nandita B.
    Chalov, Sergey R.
    Cohen, Matthew J.
    Creed, Irena F.
    Goldenberg, Romain
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Hylin, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Kalantari, Zahra
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Koussis, Antonis D.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Mazi, Katerina
    Mård, Johanna
    Persson, Klas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Quin, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    van Meter, Kimberly
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Wetlands as large-scale nature-based solutions: Status and challenges for research, engineering and management2017In: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 108, p. 489-497Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wetlands are often considered as nature-based solutions that can provide a multitude of services of great social, economic and environmental value to humankind. Changes in land-use, water-use and climate can all impact wetland functions and services. These changes occur at scales extending well beyond the local scale of an individual wetland. However, in practical applications, engineering and management decisions usually focus on individual wetland projects and local site conditions. Here, we systematically investigate if and to what extent research has addressed the large-scale dynamics of landscape systems with multiple wetlands, hereafter referred to as wetlandscapes, which are likely to be relevant for understanding impacts of regional to global change. Although knowledge in many cases is still limited, evidence suggests that the aggregated effects of multiple wetlands in the landscape can differ considerably from the functions observed at individual wetland scales. This applies to provisioning of ecosystem services such as coastal protection, biodiversity support, groundwater level and soil moisture regulation, flood regulation and contaminant retention. We show that parallel and circular flow-paths, through which wetlands are interconnected in the landscape, may largely control such scale-function differences. We suggest ways forward for addressing the mismatch between the scales at which changes take place and the scale at which observations and implementation are currently made. These suggestions can help bridge gaps between researchers and engineers, which is critical for improving wetland function-effect predictability and management.

  • 31. Tuvendal, Magnus
    et al.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Scoping appropriate scale for successful wetland managementManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 32.
    van der Velde, Ype
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. University of Utrecht, Netherlands.
    Vercauteren, Nikki
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Dekker, Stefan C.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework2014In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 28, no 13, p. 4110-4118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles.

  • 33. Wemple, Beverley C.
    et al.
    Browning, Trevor
    Ziegler, Alan D.
    Celi, Jorge
    Chun, Kwok Pan (Sun)
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Leite, Nei K.
    Ramchunder, Sorain J.
    Negishi, Junjiro N.
    Palomeque, Ximena
    Sawyer, Derek
    Ecohydrological disturbances associated with roads: Current knowledge, research needs, and management concerns with reference to the tropics2018In: Ecohydrology, ISSN 1936-0584, E-ISSN 1936-0592, Vol. 11, no 3, article id e1881Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Roads are a pervasive form of disturbance with potential to negatively affect ecohydrological processes. Some of the most rapid growth in road networks is occurring in developing countries, particularly in the tropics, where political agendas are often focused on strengthening the economy, improving infrastructure, bolstering national security, achieving self-sufficiency, and increasing citizen well-being, often at the expense of the environment. We review what is known about road impacts on ecohydrological processes, focusing on aquatic systems, both temperate and tropical. We present seven cases that represent the broader trends of road development and impacts in tropical settings. Many of these process dynamics and impacts are not different from those experienced in temperate settings, although the magnitude of impacts in the tropics may be amplified with intense rainfall and lack of best management practices applied to road construction/maintenance. Impacts of roads in tropical settings may also be unique because of particular organisms or ecosystems affected. We outline a set of best practices to improve road network management and provide recommendations for adopting an agenda of research and road management in tropical settings. Importantly, we call for incorporation of transdisciplinary approaches to further study the effects of roads on ecohydrological processes in the tropics. Specific emphasis should also be placed on collaboration with governments and developers that are championing road development to help identify the drivers of road expansion and thresholds of negative impact, as well as methods of sustainable road construction and maintenance.

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