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  • 1. Balvanera, Patricia
    et al.
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gardner, Toby A.
    Martin-Lopez, Berta
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Speranza, Chinwe Ifejika
    Spierenburg, Marja
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Farfan, Michelle
    Hamann, Maike
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Kittinger, John N.
    Luthe, Tobias
    Maass, Manuel
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Perez-Verdin, Gustavo
    Key features for more successful place-based sustainability research on social-ecological systems: a Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) perspective2017In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 22, no 1, article id 14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The emerging discipline of sustainability science is focused explicitly on the dynamic interactions between nature and society and is committed to research that spans multiple scales and can support transitions toward greater sustainability. Because a growing body of place-based social-ecological sustainability research (PBSESR) has emerged in recent decades, there is a growing need to understand better how to maximize the effectiveness of this work. The Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) provides a unique opportunity for synthesizing insights gained from this research community on key features that may contribute to the relative success of PBSESR. We surveyed the leaders of PECS-affiliated projects using a combination of open, closed, and semistructured questions to identify which features of a research project are perceived to contribute to successful research design and implementation. We assessed six types of research features: problem orientation, research team, and contextual, conceptual, methodological, and evaluative features. We examined the desirable and undesirable aspects of each feature, the enabling factors and obstacles associated with project implementation, and asked respondents to assess the performance of their own projects in relation to these features. Responses were obtained from 25 projects working in 42 social-ecological study cases within 25 countries. Factors that contribute to the overall success of PBSESR included: explicitly addressing integrated social-ecological systems; a focus on solutionand transformation-oriented research; adaptation of studies to their local context; trusted, long-term, and frequent engagement with stakeholders and partners; and an early definition of the purpose and scope of research. Factors that hindered the success of PBSESR included: the complexities inherent to social-ecological systems, the imposition of particular epistemologies and methods on the wider research group, the need for long periods of time to initiate and conduct this kind of research, and power asymmetries both within the research team and among stakeholders. In the self-assessment exercise, performance relating to team and context-related features was ranked higher than performance relating to methodological, evaluation, and problem orientation features. We discuss how these insights are relevant for balancing place-based and global perspectives in sustainability science, fostering more rapid progress toward inter-and transdisciplinary integration, redefining and measuring the success of PBSESR, and facing the challenges of academic and research funding institutions. These results highlight the valuable opportunity that the PECS community provides in helping build a community of practice for PBSESR.

  • 2. Bennett, Elena M.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. McGill University, Canada.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services.2009In: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 12, no 12, p. 1394-1404Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem management that attempts to maximize the production of one ecosystem service often results in substantial declines in the provision of other ecosystem services. For this reason, recent studies have called for increased attention to development of a theoretical understanding behind the relationships among ecosystem services. Here, we review the literature on ecosystem services and propose a typology of relationships between ecosystem services based on the role of drivers and the interactions between services. We use this typology to develop three propositions to help drive ecological science towards a better understanding of the relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Research which aims to understand the relationships among multiple ecosystem services and the mechanisms behind these relationships will improve our ability to sustainably manage landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services.

  • 3. Bennett, Elena M.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Woodward, Guy
    Linking biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being: three challenges for designing research for sustainability2015In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN 1877-3435, E-ISSN 1877-3443, Vol. 14, p. 76-85Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem services have become a mainstream concept for the expression of values assigned by people to various functions of ecosystems. Even though the introduction of the concept has initiated a vast amount of research, progress in using this knowledge for sustainable resource use remains insufficient. We see a need to broaden the scope of research to answer three key questions that we believe will improve incorporation of ecosystem service research into decision-making for the sustainable use of natural resources to improve human well-being: (i) how are ecosystem services co-produced by social–ecological systems, (ii) who benefits from the provision of ecosystem services, and (iii) what are the best practices for the governance of ecosystem services? Here, we present these key questions, the rationale behind them, and their related scientific challenges in a globally coordinated research programme aimed towards improving sustainable ecosystem management. These questions will frame the activities of ecoSERVICES, formerly a DIVERSITAS project and now a project of Future Earth, in its role as a platform to foster global coordination of multidisciplinary sustainability science through the lens of ecosystem services.

  • 4. Bennett, Elena M.
    et al.
    Solan, Martin
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, Australia.
    McPhearson, Timon
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Pereira, Laura
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
    Biermann, Frank
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Ellis, Erle C.
    Hichert, Tanja
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lahsen, Myanna
    Milkoreit, Manjana
    López, Berta Martin
    Nicholas, Kimberly A.
    Preiser, Rika
    Vince, Gaia
    Vervoort, Joost M.
    Xu, Jianchu
    Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene2016In: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, ISSN 1540-9295, E-ISSN 1540-9309, Vol. 14, no 8, p. 441-448Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scale, rate, and intensity of humans' environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic utopias and business-as-usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or seeds of a good Anthropocene, we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human-environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom-up scenarios that feature well-articulated pathways toward a more positive future.

  • 5. Berbés-Blázquez, Marta
    et al.
    Bunch, Martin J.
    Mulvihill, Peter R.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    van Wendel de Joode, Berna
    Understanding how access shapes the transformation of ecosystem services to human well-being with an example from Costa Rica2017In: Ecosystem Services, ISSN 2212-0416, E-ISSN 2212-0416, Vol. 28, p. 320-327Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasingly, ecosystem services have been applied to guide poverty alleviation and sustainable development in resource-dependent communities. Yet, questions of access, which are paramount in determining benefits from the production of ecosystem services, remain theoretically underdeveloped. That is, ecosystem assessments typically have paid little attention to identifying real or hypothetical beneficiaries and the mechanisms by which benefits may be realized. This limits their ability to guide policy and interventions at the local scale. Through a qualitative mixed methods approach, this article analyzes how access to different aspects of the production of provisioning services is negotiated in Bribri communities (Costa Rica) of small-scale plantain farmers with alternative modes of agricultural production. The analysis considers access to land, labour, knowledge, tools, markets, and credit. Our analysis reveals how institutions of access are organized differently in traditional vs. conventional systems of agriculture and how these shape power dynamics and pathways to well-being. We conclude that understanding institutions regulating access to ecosystem services provides more useful insights for poverty alleviation than approaches that assume homogeneous access to benefits.

  • 6.
    Biggs, Reinette
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Regime Shifts2011In: Sourcebook in Theoretical Ecology / [ed] A Hastings, L Gross, University of California Press, 2011Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Biggs, Reinette Oonsie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stanebosch University, South Africa.
    Peterson, Gary D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rocha, Juan Carlos
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The Regime Shifts Database: A Framework for Analyzing Regime Shifts in Social-Ecological SystemsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents the Regime Shifts Database (RSDB), a new online, open-access database that uses a novel consistent framework to systematically analyze regime shifts based on their impacts, key drivers, underlying feedbacks, and management options. The database currently contains 27 generic types of regime shifts, and over 300 specific case studies of a variety of regime shifts. These regime shifts occur across diverse types of systems and are driven by many different types of processes. Besides impacting provisioning and regulating services, our work shows that regime shifts substantially impact cultural and aesthetic ecosystem services. We found that social-ecological feedbacks are difficult to characterize and more work is needed to develop new tools and approaches to better understand social-ecological regime shifts. We hope that the database will stimulate further research on regime shifts and make available information that can be used in management, planning and assessment. 

    Download full text (pdf)
    The Regime Shift Database
    Download full text (pdf)
    appendix
  • 8.
    Biggs, Reinette
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rocha, Juan C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    The Regime Shifts Database: a framework for analyzing regime shifts in social-ecological systems2018In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 23, no 3, article id 9Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts, i.e., large, persistent, and usually unexpected changes in ecosystems and social-ecological systems, can have major impacts on ecosystem services, and consequently, on human well-being. However, the vulnerability of different regions to various regime shifts is largely unknown because evidence for the existence of regime shifts in different ecosystems and parts of the world is scattered and highly uneven. Furthermore, research tends to focus on individual regime shifts rather than comparisons across regime shifts, limiting the potential for identifying common drivers that could reduce the risk of multiple regime shifts simultaneously. Here, we introduce the Regime Shifts Database, an open-access database that systematically synthesizes information on social-ecological regime shifts across a wide range of systems using a consistent, comparative framework, providing a wide-ranging information resource for environmental planning, assessment, research, and teaching initiatives. The database currently contains 28 generic types of regime shifts and > 300 specific case studies. Each entry provides a literature-based synthesis of the key drivers and feedbacks underlying the regime shift, as well as impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being, and possible management options. Across the 28 regime shifts, climate change and agriculture-related activities are the most prominent among a wide range of drivers. Biodiversity, fisheries, and aquatic ecosystems are particularly widely affected, as are key aspects of human well-being, including livelihoods, food and nutrition, and an array of cultural ecosystem services. We hope that the database will stimulate further research and teaching on regime shifts that can inform policy and practice and ultimately enhance our collective ability to manage and govern large, abrupt, systemic changes in the Anthropocene.

  • 9. Cumming, Graeme S.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Unifying Research on Social-Ecological Resilience and Collapse2017In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 32, no 9, p. 695-713Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystems influence human societies, leading people to manage ecosystems for human benefit. Poor environmental management can lead to reduced ecological resilience and social-ecological collapse. We review research on resilience and collapse across different systems and propose a unifying social-ecological framework based on (i) a clear definition of system identity; (ii) the use of quantitative thresholds to define collapse; (iii) relating collapse processes to system structure; and (iv) explicit comparison of alternative hypotheses and models of collapse. Analysis of 17 representative cases identified 14 mechanisms, in five classes, that explain social-ecological collapse. System structure influences the kind of collapse a system may experience. Mechanistic theories of collapse that unite structure and process can make fundamental contributions to solving global environmental problems.

  • 10.
    Daw, Tim M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of East Anglia, United Kingdom.
    Coulthard, Sarah
    Cheung, William W. L.
    Brown, Katrina
    Abunge, Caroline
    Galafassi, Diego
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    McClanahan, Tim R.
    Omukoto, Johnstone O.
    Munyi, Lydiah
    Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 22, p. 6949-6954Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social-ecological system structure and stakeholders' well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be taboo trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive toy model representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance.

  • 11.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Cornell, Sarah
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Öhman, Marcus C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Daw, Tim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moberg, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schultz, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hermansson Török, Ellika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Global sustainability & human prosperity: contribution to the Post-2015 agenda and the development of Sustainable Development Goals2014Report (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bossio, Deborah
    Making investments in dryland development work: participatory scenario planning in the Makanya catchment, Tanzania2008In: Ecology and society, ISSN 1708-3087 , Vol. 13, no 2, p. 42-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13. Fischer, Joern
    et al.
    Gardner, Toby A.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Balvanera, Patricia
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Carpenter, Stephen
    Daw, Tim
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Hill, Rosemary
    Hughes, Terry P.
    Luthe, Tobias
    Maass, Manuel
    Meacham, Megan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Seppelt, Ralf
    Spierenburg, Marja
    Tenhunen, John
    Advancing sustainability through mainstreaming a social–ecological systems perspective2015In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN 1877-3435, E-ISSN 1877-3443, Vol. 14, p. 144-149Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of social-ecological systems is useful for understanding the interlinked dynamics of environmental and societal change. The concept has helped facilitate: (1) increased recognition of the dependence of humanity on ecosystems; (2) improved collaboration across disciplines, and between science and society; (3) increased methodological pluralism leading to improved systems understanding; and (4) major policy frameworks considering social-ecological interactions. Despite these advances, the potential of a social-ecological systems perspective to improve sustainability outcomes has not been fully realized. Key priorities are to: (1) better understand and govern social-ecological interactions between regions; (2) pay greater attention to long-term drivers; (3) better understand the interactions among power relations, justice, and ecosystem stewardship; and (4) develop a stronger science-society interface.

  • 14. Fischer, Joern
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Gardner, Toby A
    Gordon, Line J
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Fazey, Ioan
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Felton, Adam
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dovers, Stephen
    Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation.2009In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 24, no 10, p. 549-54Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conservation strategies need to be both effective and efficient to be successful. To this end, two bodies of research should be integrated, namely 'resilience thinking' and 'optimisation for conservation,' both of which are highly policy relevant but to date have evolved largely separately. Resilience thinking provides an integrated perspective for analysis, emphasising the potential of nonlinear changes and the interdependency of social and ecological systems. By contrast, optimisation for conservation is an outcome-oriented tool that recognises resource scarcity and the need to make rational and transparent decisions. Here we propose that actively embedding optimisation analyses within a resilience-thinking framework could draw on the complementary strengths of the two bodies of work, thereby promoting cost-effective and enduring conservation outcomes.

  • 15.
    Folke, Carl
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Jansson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ebbesson, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Law, Department of Law, Stockholm Environmental Law and Policy Centre.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moberg, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Albaeco, Stockholm, Sweden .
    Nilsson, Måns
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT, Australia .
    Reconnecting to the biosphere2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, no 7, p. 719-738Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere-a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

  • 16.
    Goodness, Julie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Andersson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Patterns of socially-valued plant traits across urban land uses in Stockholm, SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to contribute to urban sustainability and the generation of enjoyable, multifunctional spaces for city residents, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of the environments that are being shaped in urban areas. This study examines patterns of vegetation structure and cover, as well as tree species and socially-valued tree traits across the urban landscape of Stockholm, Sweden. It uses the lenses of two different land classes for this investigation: (1) seven categories of urban morphology, and (2) three categories of land management: private, public, and remnant reference vegetation sites. Results indicate significant differences across urban morphology, with the greatest extents of tree and ground cover layer in forests, the least in industrial and contiguous closed urban sites, and a near absence of shrub layer across all classes. Ground cover indicates a shift from an herbaceous mix to a combination of grass and impervious cover from more exurban to urban sites. A diversity of socially-valued tree traits is exhibited most strongly across those spaces most intensely managed for use by humans. Similar functions may be provided by different species in the landscape. While tree species differed when comparing public and private land use, their functional profiles were similar, indicating potential for response diversity and resilience across the urban area of Stockholm in the face of environmental change. Overall, this study serves as a pilot for using traits as an indicator tool for discerning and mapping social-ecological value in urban areas. We suggest that future investigations further explore the potential of using traits as both social and ecological value indicators and as cues for management actions.

  • 17.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises2008In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 23, no 4, p. 211-219Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural expansion and intensification have altered the quantity and quality of global water flows. Research suggests that these changes have increased the risk of catastrophic ecosystem regime shifts. We identify and review evidence for agriculture-related regime shifts in three parts of the hydrological cycle: interactions between agriculture and aquatic systems, agriculture and soil, and agriculture and the atmosphere. We describe the processes that shape these regime shifts and the scales at which they operate. As global demands for agriculture and water continue to grow, it is increasingly urgent for ecologists to develop new ways of anticipating, analyzing and managing nonlinear changes across scales in human-dominated landscapes.

  • 18.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Traps and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas: A Review2018In: World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, E-ISSN 1873-5991, Vol. 101, p. 311-321Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of a poverty trap—commonly understood as a self-reinforcing situation beneath an asset threshold—has been very influential in describing the persistence of poverty and the relationship between poverty and sustainability. Although traps, and the dynamics that lead to traps, are defined and used differently in different disciplines, the concept of a poverty trap has been most powerfully shaped by work in development economics. This perspective is often constraining because, as many studies show, poverty arises from complex interactions between social and environmental factors that are rarely considered in development economics. A more integrated understanding of poverty traps can help to understand the interrelations between persistent poverty and key social and ecological factors, facilitating more effective development interventions. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical appraisal of existing trap conceptualizations in different disciplines, and to assess the characteristics and mechanisms that are used to explain poverty traps in rural contexts, thereby broadening the traps concept to better account for social-ecological interactions. Complementarities and tensions among different disciplinary perspectives on traps are identified, and our results demonstrate that different definitions of traps share a set of common characteristics: persistence, undesirability, and self-reinforcement. Yet these minimum conditions are not sufficient to understand how trap dynamics arise from complex social-ecological interactions. To broaden the utility of the concept we propose a more social-ecologically integrated definition of traps that includes four additional considerations: cross-scale interactions, path dependencies, the role of external drivers, and social-ecological diversity. Including these wider dimensions of trap dynamics would help to better account for the diverse social-ecological feedbacks that produce and maintain poverty traps, and could strengthen strategies to alleviate poverty in a more integrated way.

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  • 19.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Neusel, Benjamin
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Past management affects success of current joint forestry management institutions in Tajikistan2019In: Environment, Development and Sustainability, ISSN 1387-585X, E-ISSN 1573-2975, Vol. 21, no 5, p. 2183-2224Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the Pamir Mountains of Eastern Tajikistan, the clearance of mountain forests to provide fuelwood for an increasing population is a major source of environmental degradation. International development organisations have implemented joint forestry management institutions to help restore once-forested mountainous regions, but the success of these institutions has been highly variable. This study uses a multi-method approach, drawing on institutional analysis supported by Elinor Ostrom's design principles and social-ecological system framework in combination with resilience thinking to help understand why some communities in Tajikistan manage their forests more sustainably than others. The application of the design principles provided helpful guidance for practitioners implementing joint forestry management. The social-ecological system analysis revealed both 'history of use' and 'tenant density' as positively associated with forest condition. However, we also identify limitations of snapshot social-ecological assessments. In particular, we illustrate the critical importance of considering historical legacy effects, such as externally imposed centralised governance regimes (that characterise many post-Soviet states) in attempts to understand current management practices. Our work shows how a more nuanced understanding of institutional change and inertia can be achieved by adopting a resilience approach to institutional analysis, focusing on the importance of reorganisation. Lessons learned from our analysis should be widely applicable to common pool resource management in other semi-arid forested landscapes as well as in regions with a strong centralised governance legacy.

  • 20. Homer-Dixon, Thomas
    et al.
    Walker, Brian
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Lambin, Eric F.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 3, article id 6Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern's deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system's behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework's propositions.

  • 21.
    Jiménez-Aceituno, Amanda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wong, Grace Y.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Downing, Andrea S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Local lens for SDG implementation: lessons from bottom-up approaches in Africa2020In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 15, no 3, p. 729-743Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Anthropocene presents a set of interlinked sustainability challenges for humanity. The United Nations 2030 Agenda has identified 17 specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a way to confront these challenges. However, local initiatives have long been addressing issues connected to these goals in a myriad of diverse and innovative ways. We present a new approach to assess how local initiatives contribute to achieving the SDGs. We analyse how many, and how frequently, different SDGs and targets are addressed in a set of African initiatives. We consider goals and targets addressed by the same initiative as interacting between them. Then, we cluster the SDGs based on the combinations of goals and targets addressed by the initiatives and explore how SDGs differ in how local initiatives engage with them. We identify 5 main groups: SDGs addressed by broad-scope projects, SDGs addressed by specific projects, SDGs as means of implementation, cross-cutting SDGs and underrepresented SDGs. Goal 11 (sustainable cities & communities) is not clustered with any other goal. Finally, we explore the nuances of these groups and discuss the implications and relevance for the SDG framework to consider bottom-up approaches. Efforts to monitor the success on implementing the SDGs in local contexts should be reinforced and consider the different patterns initiatives follow to address the goals. Additionally, achieving the goals of the 2030 Agenda will require diversity and alignment of bottom-up and top-down approaches.

  • 22. Kok, Marcel T. J.
    et al.
    Kok, Kasper
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hill, Rosemary
    Agard, John
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios2017In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 177-181Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    What does the future hold for the world's ecosystems and benefits that people obtain from them? While the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified the development of scenarios as a key to helping decision makers identify potential impacts of different policy options, it currently lacks a long-term scenario strategy. IPBES will decide how it will approach scenarios at its plenary meeting on 22-28 February 2016, in Kuala Lumpur. IPBES now needs to decide whether it should create new scenarios that better explore ecosystem services and biodiversity dynamics. For IPBES to capture the social-ecological dynamics of biodiversity and ecosystem services, it is essential to engage with the great diversity of local contexts, while also including the global tele-coupling among local places. We present and compare three alternative scenario strategies that IPBES could use and then suggest a bottom-up, cross-scale scenario strategy to improve the policy relevance of future IPBES assessments. We propose five concrete steps as part of an effective, long term scenario development process for IPBES in cooperation with the scientific community.

  • 23.
    Lindborg, Regina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
    Bengtsson, Jan
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bommarco, Riccardo
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gren, Åsa
    Rundlöf, Maj
    Smith, Henrik G.
    How spatial scale shapes the generation and management of multiple ecosystem services2017In: Ecosphere, ISSN 2150-8925, E-ISSN 2150-8925, Vol. 8, no 4, article id e01741Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The spatial extent of ecological processes has consequences for the generation of ecosystem services related to them. However, management often fails to consider issues of scale when targeting ecological processes underpinning ecosystem services generation. Here, we present a framework for conceptualizing how the amount and spatial scale (here discussed in terms of extent) of management interventions alter interactions among multiple ecosystem services. First, we identify four types of responses of ecosystem service generation: linear, exponential, saturating, and sigmoid, and how these are related to the amount of management intervention at a particular spatial scale. Second, using examples from multiple ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes, we examine how the shape of these relationships can vary with the spatial scale at which the management interventions are implemented. Third, we examine the resulting scale-dependent consequences for trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services as a consequence of interventions. Finally, to inform guidelines for management of multiple ecosystem services in real landscapes, we end with a discussion linking the theoretical relationships with how landscape configurations and placement of interventions can alter the scale at which synergies and trade-offs among services occur.

  • 24. Martín-López, Berta
    et al.
    Felipe-Lucia, María R.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Plieninger, Tobias
    Hicks, Christina C.
    Turkelboom, Francis
    García-Llorente, Marina
    Jacobs, Sander
    Lavorel, Sandra
    Locatelli, Bruno
    A novel telecoupling framework to assess social relations across spatial scales for ecosystem services research2019In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 241, p. 251-263Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Access to ecosystem services and influence on their management are structured by social relations among actors, which often occur across spatial scales. Such cross-scale social relations can be analysed through a telecoupling framework as decisions taken at local scales are often shaped by actors at larger scales. Analyzing these cross-scale relations is critical to create effective and equitable strategies to manage ecosystem services. Here, we develop an analytical framework -i.e. the 'cross-scale influence-dependence framework'- to facilitate the analysis of power asymmetries and the distribution of ecosystem services among the beneficiaries. We illustrate the suitability of this framework through its retrospective application across four case studies, in which we characterize the level of dependence of multiple actors on a particular set of ecosystem services, and their influence on decision-making regarding these services across three spatial scales. The 'cross-scale influence-dependence framework' can improve our understanding of distributional and procedural equity and thus support the development of policies for sustainable management of ecosystem services.

  • 25.
    Meacham, Megan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Social-ecological drivers of multiple ecosystem services: what variables explain patterns of ecosystem services across the Norrstrom drainage basin?2016In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 21, no 1, article id 14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In human dominated landscapes many diverse, and often antagonistic, human activities are intentionally and inadvertently determining the supply of various ecosystem services. Understanding how different social and ecological factors shape the availability of ecosystem services is essential for fair and effective policy and management. In this paper, we evaluate how well alternative social-ecological models of human impact on ecosystems explain patterns of 16 ecosystem services (ES) across the 62 municipalities of the Norrstrom drainage basin in Sweden. We test four models of human impact on ecosystems, land use, ecological modernization, ecological footprint, and location theory, and test their ability to predict both individual ES and bundles of ES. We find that different models do best to predict different types of individual ES. Land use is the best model for predicting provisioning services, standing water quality, biodiversity appreciation, and cross-country skiing, while other models work better for the remaining services. However, this range of models is not able to predict some of the cultural ES. ES bundles are predicted worse than individual ES by these models, but provide a clear picture of variation in multiple ecosystem services based on limited information. Based on our results, we offer suggestions on how social-ecological modeling and assessments of ecosystems can be further developed.

  • 26. Meyfroid, P.
    et al.
    Chowdhury, R. Roy
    de Bremond, A.
    Ellis, E. C.
    Erb, K-H.
    Filatova, T.
    Garrett, R. D.
    Grove, J. M.
    Heinimann, A.
    Kuemmerle, T.
    Kull, C. A.
    Lambin, E. F.
    Landon, Y.
    de Warow, Y. le Polain
    Messerli, P.
    Mueller, D.
    Nielsen, J. O.
    Peterson, Gary D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Garcia, V. Rodriguez
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Turner, B. L.
    Verburg, P. H.
    Middle-range theories of land system change2018In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 53, p. 52-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories - defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains -, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems.

  • 27.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 014015-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  • 28.
    Norström, Albert
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Cvitanovic, Christopher
    Löf, Marie F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    West, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia; Charles Darwin University, Australia.
    Wyborn, Carina
    Balvanera, Patricia
    Bednarek, Angela T.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    de Bremond, Ariane
    Campbell, Bruce M.
    Canadell, Josep G.
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Fulton, Elizabeth A.
    Gaffney, Owen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Gelcich, Stefan
    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Leach, Melissa
    Le Tissier, Martin
    Martin-López, Berta
    Louder, Elena
    Loutre, Marie-France
    Meadow, Alison M.
    Nagendra, Harini
    Payne, Davnah
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Reyers, Belinda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Scholes, Robert
    Speranza, Chinwe Ifejika
    Spierenburg, Marja
    Stafford-Smith, Mark
    Tengö, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    van der Hel, Sandra
    van Putten, Ingrid
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research2020In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 182-190Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approaches. But definitions of knowledge co-production are diverse and often contradictory. We propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research. Using these principles, we offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success. Research addressing sustainability issues is more effective if 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics, but definitions of co-production vary. This Perspective presents four knowledge co-production principles for sustainability research and guides on how to engage in co-productive practices.

  • 29.
    Ospina, Daniel
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions-a social-ecological regime shift analysis2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 2, article id 024017Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how remittances shape the effect of rural out-migration on the potential for local forest transitions. Building on an existing theoretical model of social-ecological regime shifts that links migration, farmland abandonment, and forest regrowth, we incorporate migrant remittances as an additional rural-urban teleconnection. We also extend the ecological dynamics to include a dynamical forest regrowth rate, generating a slowing-down of regrowth once the landscape has undergone extensive agricultural change. We first analyse how these two extensions to the base model reshape the stability of the system, altering the existence and dynamics of alternative agricultural and forested regimes. Then we explore how two different uses of remittances by rural households (hiring agricultural labor or supplementing household income/consumption) affect the potential for local forest transitions in a context of structural economic change, represented as an increasing differential of rural and urban incomes. We find that remittances change the character of forested and agricultural regimes, and increase the resilience of the agricultural regime. This effect is stronger when remittances are used for hiring labor. The findings are consistent with empirical research that highlights the remarkable persistence of rural livelihoods and landscapes in the face of increasing global connectivity and urbanization. Remittances, and possibly other rural-urban teleconnections, are necessary components for an updated 'economic development pathway' of forest transitions. With this simple model we show that social-ecological regime shifts offer a useful perspective to study land use transition dynamics and advance land change theory.

  • 30. Oteros-Rozas, Elisa
    et al.
    Martín-López, Berta
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bohensky, Erin L.
    Butler, James R. A.
    Hill, Rosemary
    Martin-Ortega, Julia
    Quinlan, Allyson
    Ravera, Federica
    Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel
    Thyresson, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mistry, Jayalaxshmi
    Palomo, Ignacio
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Plieninger, Tobias
    Waylen, Kerry A.
    Beach, Dylan M.
    Bohnet, Iris C.
    Hamann, Maike
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hanspach, Jan
    Hubacek, Klaus
    Lavorel, Sandra
    Vilardy, Sandra P.
    Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 4, article id 32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  • 31.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    A Cross-National Analysis of How Economic Inequality Predicts Biodiversity Loss2009In: Conservation Biology, ISSN 0888-8892, E-ISSN 1523-1739, Vol. 23, no 5, p. 1304-1313Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

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  • 32.
    Peterson, Garry
    et al.
    Department of Zoology, University of Florida.
    Allen, Craig R.
    Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida.
    Holling, Crawford S.
    Department of Zoology, University of Florida.
    Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale2010In: Ecosystems, Springer , 2010, 1, p. 6-18Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 33.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Meacham, Megan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Richter, Kristina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Andersson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mapping bundles of ecosystem services reveals distinct types of multifunctionality within a Swedish landscape2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. s89-S101Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem services (ES) is a valuable concept to be used in the planning and management of social-ecological landscapes. However, the understanding of the determinant factors affecting the interaction between services in the form of synergies or trade-offs is still limited. We assessed the production of 16 ES across 62 municipalities in the Norrstrom drainage basin in Sweden. We combined GIS data with publically available information for quantifying and mapping the distribution of services. Additionally, we calculated the diversity of ES for each municipality and used correlations and k-means clustering analyses to assess the existence of ES bundles. We found five distinct types of bundles of ES spatially agglomerated in the landscape that could be explained by regional social and ecological gradients. Human-dominated landscapes were highly multifunctional in our study area and urban densely populated areas were hotspots of cultural services.

  • 34. Quinlan, Allyson E.
    et al.
    Berbés-Blázquez, Marta
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Measuring and assessing resilience: broadening understanding through multiple disciplinary perspectives2016In: Journal of Applied Ecology, ISSN 0021-8901, E-ISSN 1365-2664, Vol. 53, p. 677-687Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]
    1. Increased interest in managing resilience has led to efforts to develop standardized tools for assessments and quantitative measures. Resilience, however, as a property of complex adaptive systems, does not lend itself easily to measurement. Whereas assessment approaches tend to focus on deepening understanding of system dynamics, resilience measurement aims to capture and quantify resilience in a rigorous and repeatable way.
    2. We discuss the strengths, limitations and trade-offs involved in both assessing and measuring resilience, as well as the relationship between the two. We use a range of disciplinary perspectives to draw lessons on distilling complex concepts into useful metrics.
    3. Measuring and monitoring a narrow set of indicators or reducing resilience to a single unit of measurement may block the deeper understanding of system dynamics needed to apply resilience thinking and inform management actions.
    4. Synthesis and applications. Resilience assessment and measurement can be complementary. In both cases it is important that: (i) the approach aligns with how resilience is being defined, (ii) the application suits the specific context and (iii) understanding of system dynamics is increased. Ongoing efforts to measure resilience would benefit from the integration of key principles that have been identified for building resilience.
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  • 35. Quintas-Soriano, Cristina
    et al.
    García-Llorente, Marina
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Meacham, Megan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Castro, Antonio J.
    Integrating supply and demand in ecosystem service bundles characterization across Mediterranean transformed landscapes2019In: Landscape Ecology, ISSN 0921-2973, E-ISSN 1572-9761, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 1619-1633Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    ContextHumans continually transform landscapes, affecting the ecosystem services (ES) they provide. Thus, the spatial relationships among services vary across landscapes. Managers and decision makers have access to a variety of tools for mapping landscapes and analyzing their capacity to provide multiple ES.ObjectivesThis paper characterizes and maps ES bundles across transformed landscapes in southeast Spain incorporating both the ecological and social perspectives. Our specific goals were to: (1) quantify ES biophysical supply, (2) identify public awareness, (3) map ES bundles, and (4) characterize types of ES bundles based on their social-ecological dimensions.MethodsBiophysical models and face-to-face social surveys were used to quantify and map ES bundles and explore the public awareness in a highly transformed Mediterranean region. Then, we classified ES bundles into four types using a matrix crossing the degree of biophysical ES supply and the degree of social awareness.ResultsResults mapped seven ES bundles types representing diverse social-ecological dynamics. ES bundles mapped at the municipality level showed mismatches between their biophysical provision and the public awareness, which has important implications for operationalizing the bundles concept for landscape planning and management. ES bundles characterization identified four types of bundles scenarios.ConclusionsWe propose an ES bundles classification that incorporates both their social and ecological dimensions. Our findings can be used by land managers to identify areas in which ES are declining as well as priority areas for maximizing ES provision and can help to identify conflicts associated with new management and planning practices.

  • 36.
    Rathwell, Kaitlyn J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Connecting social networks with ecosystem services for watershed governance: a social ecological network perspective highlights the critical role of bridging organizations2012In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 24-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In many densely settled agricultural watersheds, water quality is a point of conflict between amenity and agricultural activities because of the varied demands and impacts on shared water resources. Successful governance of these watersheds requires coordination among different activities. Recent research has highlighted the role that social networks between management entities can play to facilitate cross-scale interaction in watershed governance. For example, bridging organizations can be positioned in social networks to bridge local initiatives done by single municipalities across whole watersheds. To better understand the role of social networks in social-ecological system dynamics, we combine a social network analysis of the water quality management networks held by local governments with a social-ecological analysis of variation in water management and ecosystem services across the Monteregie, an agricultural landscape near Montreal, Quebec, Canada. We analyze municipal water management networks by using one-mode networks to represent direct collaboration between municipalities, and two-mode networks to capture how bridging organizations indirectly connect municipalities. We find that municipalities do not collaborate directly with one another but instead are connected via bridging organizations that span the water quality management network. We also discovered that more connected municipalities engaged in more water management activities. However, bridging organizations preferentially connected with municipalities that used more tourism related ecosystem services rather than those that used more agricultural ecosystem services. Many agricultural municipalities were relatively isolated, despite being the main producers of water quality problems. In combination, these findings suggest that further strengthening the water management network in the Monteregie will contribute to improving water quality in the region. However, such strengthening requires developing a network that better connects both agricultural and tourism oriented municipalities. Furthermore, these findings show that consideration of the social-ecological context of social networks, can help explain the structure of networks and reveal social-ecological clusters and disconnects in a network.

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  • 37. Raudsepp-Hearne, C.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Bennett, E. M.
    Ecosystem service bundles for analyzing tradeoffs in diverse landscapes2010In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 107, no 11, p. 5242-5247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A key challenge of ecosystem management is determining how to manage multiple ecosystem services across landscapes. Enhancing important provisioning ecosystem services, such as food and timber, often leads to tradeoffs between regulating and cultural ecosystem services, such as nutrient cycling, flood protection, and tourism. We developed a framework for analyzing the provision of multiple ecosystem services across landscapes and present an empirical demonstration of ecosystem service bundles, sets of services that appear together repeatedly. Ecosystem service bundles were identified by analyzing the spatial patterns of 12 ecosystem services in a mixed-use landscape consisting of 137 municipalities in Quebec, Canada. We identified six types of ecosystem service bundles and were able to link these bundles to areas on the landscape characterized by distinct social-ecological dynamics. Our results show landscape-scale tradeoffs between provisioning and almost all regulating and cultural ecosystem services, and they show that a greater diversity of ecosystem services is positively correlated with the provision of regulating ecosystem services. Ecosystem service-bundle analysis can identify areas on a landscape where ecosystem management has produced exceptionally desirable or undesirable sets of ecosystem services.

  • 38. Raudsepp-Hearne, C.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bennett, E. M.
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, Australia.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Pereira, L.
    Vervoort, J.
    Iwaniec, D. M.
    McPhearson, Timon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The New School, USA.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hichert, T.
    Falardeau, M.
    Jiménez Aceituno, Amanda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe2020In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 15, no 2, p. 605-617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenario development helps people think about a broad variety of possible futures; however, the global environmental change community has thus far developed few positive scenarios for the future of the planet and humanity. Those that have been developed tend to focus on the role of a few common, large-scale external drivers, such as technology or environmental policy, even though pathways of positive change are often driven by surprising or bottom-up initiatives that most scenarios assume are unchanging. We describe an approach, pioneered in Southern Africa and tested here in a new context in Northern Europe, to developing scenarios using existing bottom-up transformative initiatives to examine plausible transitions towards positive, sustainable futures. By starting from existing, but marginal initiatives, as well as current trends, we were able to identify system characteristics that may play a key role in sustainability transitions (e.g., gender issues, inequity, governance, behavioral change) that are currently under-explored in global environmental scenarios. We suggest that this approach could be applied in other places to experiment further with the methodology and its potential applications, and to explore what transitions to desirables futures might be like in different places.

  • 39. Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scale and ecosystem services: how do observation, management, and analysis shift with scale-lessons from Quebec2016In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 21, no 3, article id 16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem service assessment and management are shaped by the scale at which they are conducted; however, there has been little systematic investigation of the scales associated with ecosystem service processes, such as production, benefit distribution, and management. We examined how social-ecological spatial scale impacts ecosystem service assessment by comparing how ecosystem service distribution, trade-offs, and bundles shift across spatial scales. We used a case study in Quebec, Canada, to analyze the scales of production, consumption, and management of 12 ecosystem services and to analyze how interactions among 7 of these ecosystem services change across 3 scales of observation (1, 9, and 75 km(2) ). We found that ecosystem service patterns and interactions were relatively robust across scales of observation; however, we identified 4 different types of scale mismatches among ecosystem service production, consumption, and management. Based on this analysis, we have proposed 4 aspects of scale that ecosystem service assessments should consider.

  • 40. Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Tengö, Maria
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    The Paradox Persists: how to Resolve It?2011In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 61, no 1, p. 11-12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The environmentalist's paradox refers to two apparently contra-dictory trends: declining supplies of ecosystem services and increasing human well-being. If humans are truly dependent on nature, then human well-being should deteriorate as ecosystem services are degraded. Our article (Raudsepp-Hearne et al. 2010) examined the evidence for and against four proposed explanations of this paradox. By evaluating multiple explanations, we aimed to contribute to a stronger science of sustainability by encouraging dialogue among the disciplines that address sustainability but emphasize different ways of explaining this paradox. In our article, we critically reviewed empirical evidence from a broad multidisciplinary literature about the relationship between human well-being and ecosystem services and identified areas for future research to address the important gaps in our understanding of this relationship. Consequently, we broadly agree with both Nelson and Duraiappah (see Viewpoints, this issue) that more research and data at multiple scales are needed to resolve the environmentalist's paradox. However, our perspectives differ from theirs in terms of trends in well-being, stocks and flows of ecosystem services, and the role of technology in mediating the relationship between ecosystems and human well-being.

  • 41. Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Tengö, Maria
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Holland, Tim
    Benessaiah, Karina
    MacDonald, Graham K.
    Pfeifer, Laura
    Untangling the Environmentalist's Paradox: Why Is Human Well-being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade?2010In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 60, no 8, p. 576-589Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Environmentalists have argued that ecological degradation will lead to declines in the well-being of people dependent on ecosystem services. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment paradoxically found that human well-being has increased despite large global declines in most ecosystem services. We assess four explanations of these divergent trends: (1) We have measured well-being incorrectly; (2) well-being is dependent on food services, which are increasing, and not on other services that are declining; (3) technology has decoupled well-being from nature; (4) time lags may lead to future declines in well-being. Our findings discount the first hypothesis, but elements of the remaining three appear plausible. Although ecologists have convincingly documented ecological decline, science does not adequately understand the implications of this decline for human well-being. Untangling how human well-being has increased as ecosystem conditions decline is critical to guiding future management of ecosystem services; we propose four research areas to help achieve this goal.

  • 42. Rieb, Jesse T.
    et al.
    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
    Daily, Gretchen C.
    Armsworth, Paul R.
    Böhning-Gaese, Katrin
    Bonn, Aletta
    Cumming, Graeme S.
    Eigenbrod, Felix
    Grimm, Volker
    Jackson, Bethanna M.
    Marques, Alexandra
    Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.
    Pereira, Henrique M.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ricketts, Taylor H.
    Robinson, Brian E.
    Schröter, Matthias
    Schulte, Lisa A.
    Seppelt, Ralf
    Turner, Monica G.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    When, Where, and How Nature Matters for Ecosystem Services: Challenges for the Next Generation of Ecosystem Service Models2017In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 67, no 9, p. 820-833Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many decision-makers are looking to science to clarify how nature supports human well-being. Scientists' responses have typically focused on empirical models of the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and resulting decision-support tools. Although such tools have captured some of the complexities of ES, they can be difficult to adapt to new situations. Globally useful tools that predict the provision of multiple ES under different decision scenarios have proven challenging to develop. Questions from decision-makers and limitations of existing decision-support tools indicate three crucial research frontiers for incorporating cutting-edge ES science into decision-support tools: (1) understanding the complex dynamics of ES in space and time, (2) linking ES provision to human well-being, and (3) determining the potential for technology to substitute for or enhance ES. We explore these frontiers in-depth, explaining why each is important and how existing knowledge at their cutting edges can be incorporated to improve ES decision-making tools.

  • 43.
    Rocha Gordo, Juan C.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Levin, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Princeton University, USA; Resources for the Future, USA.
    Cascading regime shifts within and across scales2018In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 362, no 6421, p. 1379-1383Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.

  • 44.
    Rocha, Juan Carlos
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience2015In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 10, no 8, article id e0134639Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

  • 45.
    Rocha, Juan Carlos
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Biggs, Reinette Oonsie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: drivers, risk, and resilienceManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Human action is driving worldwide change in ecosystems. While some of these changes have been gradual, others have led to surprising, large and persistent ecological regime shifts 1-4. Such shifts challenge ecological management and governance because they substantially alter the availability of ecosystems services 5, while being difficult to predict 6 and reverse2. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy 7-9. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases or types of regime shifts 9-11. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. We demonstrate that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and widely shared among regime shifts, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose tight links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts 8,12. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

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  • 46.
    Rocha, Juan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services2015In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8436, E-ISSN 1471-2970, Vol. 370, no 1659, article id 20130273Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  • 47. Rosa, Isabel M. D.
    et al.
    Pereira, Henrique M.
    Ferrier, Simon
    Alkemade, Rob
    Acosta, Lilibeth A.
    Akcakaya, H. Resit
    den Belder, Eefje
    Fazel, Asghar M.
    Fujimori, Shinichiro
    Harfoot, Mike
    Harhash, Khaled A.
    Harrison, Paula A.
    Hauck, Jennifer
    Hendriks, Rob J. J.
    Hernandez, Gladys
    Jetz, Walter
    Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.
    Kim, HyeJin
    King, Nicholas
    Kok, Marcel T. J.
    Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.
    Lazarova, Tanya
    Leadley, Paul
    Lundquist, Carolyn J.
    Marquez, Jaime Garcia
    Meyer, Carsten
    Navarro, Laetitia M.
    Nesshoever, Carsten
    Ngo, Hien T.
    Ninan, Karachepone N.
    Palomo, Maria G.
    Pereira, Laura M.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Pichs, Ramon
    Popp, Alexander
    Purvis, Andy
    Ravera, Federica
    Rondinini, Carlo
    Sathyapalan, Jyothis
    Schipper, Aafke M.
    Seppelt, Ralf
    Settele, Josef
    Sitas, Nadia
    van Vuuren, Detlef
    Multiscale scenarios for nature futures2017In: Nature Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 2397-334X, Vol. 1, no 10, p. 1416-1419Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  • 48. Samuelsson, Karl
    et al.
    Giusti, Matteo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Legeby, Ann
    Brandt, S. Anders
    Barthel, Stephan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Impact of environment on people's everyday experiences in Stockholm2018In: Landscape and Urban Planning, ISSN 0169-2046, E-ISSN 1872-6062, Vol. 171, p. 7-17Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to construct urban environments that limit negative impacts for global sustainability while supporting human wellbeing, there is a need to better understand how features of the environment influence people's everyday experiences. We present a novel method for studying this combining accessibility analysis and public participatory GIS (PPGIS). Seven environment features are defined and accessibility to them analysed across Stockholm municipality. We estimate the probabilities of positive and negative experiences in places based on these environment features, by using spatial regression to extrapolate from the results of an online PPGIS survey (1784 experiences of 1032 respondents). Six of the seven studied environment features have significant impact on experiential outcome, after accounting for spatial autocorrelation among the data. The results show that number of residents and proximity of nature environments and water, all common quality indicators in urban planning and research, have weak statistically significant effects on people's experiences. However, areas dominated by large working populations or proximity to major roads have very low rates of positive experiences, while areas with high natural temperature regulating capacities have very high rates, showing that there are considerable qualitative differences within urban environments as well as nature environments. Current urban planning practices need to acknowledge these differences to limit impacts on the biosphere while promoting human wellbeing. We suggest that a good way to start addressing this is through transformation of negatively experienced urban areas through designs that integrate closeness to urbanity with possibilities to have nature experiences on a daily basis.

  • 49.
    Sellberg, My M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Borgström, Sara T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Improving participatory resilience assessment by cross-fertilizing the Resilience Alliance and Transition Movement approaches2017In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 22, no 1, article id 28Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of resilience is currently being widely promoted and applied by environmental and development organizations. However, their application of resilience often lacks theoretical backing and evaluation. This paper presents a novel cross-fertilization of two commonly used approaches for applying resilience thinking: the grassroots movement of Transition Towns and the Resilience Alliance's Resilience Assessment. We compared these approaches through a text analysis of their key handbooks and combined them in a series of participatory workshops with a local partner active in the Transition Movement. Our results demonstrate that despite sharing a number of key features, these two approaches have complementary strengths and weaknesses. Strengths of the Transition Movement include its motivating overarching narrative of the need to transform in response to global sustainability challenges, as well as practical tools promoting learning and participation. The Resilience Assessment's conceptual framework and structured process generated context-specific understanding of resilience, but provided little guidance on navigating transformation processes. Combining the Resilience Assessment's theory on complex systems with the Transition Movement's methods for learning also generated synergies in fostering complexity thinking. Based on these findings, we believe that integrating strengths from both approaches could be widely useful for practitioners seeking to apply resilience for sustainable development. Our study also highlights that methods for assessing resilience can be improved by combining insights from science and practice.

  • 50.
    Sellberg, My M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Envisioning a positive food future based on local initiatives: the case of the Stockholm regionManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Globally, food systems face multifaceted sustainability challenges and the need for substantial food system change or transformation is increasingly acknowledged. Such transformations will look different across the world due to diverse regional social-ecological contexts. We explored and articulated what a transformed food system could look like in a specific regional context – the Stockholm-Mälaren region in Sweden, based on the perspectives of a diverse set of regional actors. The approach we used is based on a novel methodology for bottom-up, participatory narrative scenarios that has been developed in the international sustainability science project “Bright Spots: Seeds of the Good Anthropocene”. Through a participatory workshop and a survey, we explored a vision of a positive food future for the Stockholm-Mälaren region and potential conflicts and opportunities for moving towards that future. The emerging vision highlights four components that represent a significant change from the current situation: 1) Increased self-sufficiency and access to local food, 2) A vibrant and inclusive food sector and culture, 3) Nutrient-rich, less resource-intensive diets, and 4) Agriculture contributing to environmental sustainability. The study highlights conflicts between different goals of a sustainable and resilient food system, such as food security, self-sufficiency and resource efficiency, that need to be clarified and managed. We also identify opportunities for creating transformative change in the Stockholm-Mälaren food system, including: the leverage of key actors in between producers and consumers, agreement on a broader vision among the participating food actors, a potential to link to national-scale narratives of food security and sustainable consumption and incorporate change at the scale of local governments.

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