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  • 1. Ampudia, Miguel
    et al.
    van Vlokhoven, Has
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Zochowski, Dawid
    Financial fragility of euro area households2016In: Journal of Financial Stability, ISSN 1572-3089, E-ISSN 1878-0962, Vol. 27, p. 250-262Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Until recently, the lack of appropriate harmonized micro data covering both income and wealth has been the major obstacle in analyzing financial vulnerability of the household sector in the euro area. This data problem has been partially circumvented by the dissemination of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). Based on this unique data set, we put forward a stress testing method of household balance sheets in a consistent manner across euro area countries. To this end, we put forward a metric of distress which takes into account both the solvency and liquidity position of the household and demonstrate that this metric outperforms the most common metrics used in the literature, which do not take into account the households' asset holdings. We calibrate this metric using the country level data on non-performing loan ratios and estimate stress-test elasticities in response to an interest rate shock, an income shock and a house price shock. We find that, albeit euro-area households are relatively resilient as a whole, there are large discrepancies in the impact of macroeconomic shocks across countries. Finally, we demonstrate that our framework could be used to assess some measures mitigating losses to the banks, such as engaging in the restructurings of loans that are at risk of defaulting.

  • 2.
    van Vlokhoven, Has
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    On the Cost of Capital, Profits and the Diffusion of Ideas2020Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Estimating the Cost of Capital and the Profit Share Compensation of the factor of production capital is not directly observed since most firms own part of their capital stock. I develop a new method to estimate capital compensation. I show how firms' input choices reveal the user cost of capital when firms minimize costs and produce according to a homogeneous production function. Subtracting estimated capital compensation together with all other observed costs from sales gives economic profits. Estimating the model using Compustat data, I find that the cost of capital has been declining, and that the profit share has been increasing over the past fifty years from around 4% to around 8% of sales. The increase in the profit share coincides with the observed fall in the labor share, while I estimate the capital share to be falling as well. Therefore, the fall in the labor share is not due to an increased capital intensity, but due to an increase in profits.

    Profits and the Marginal Product of Capital Around the World The extent to which marginal products of capital are equalized across countries is informative of how well international capital markets function. I estimate the marginal product of capital across a wide range of countries while allowing for imperfect competition. I find that richer countries have a higher marginal product of capital than poorer countries, but that this is entirely driven by differences in depreciation rates. Thus, in terms of output net of depreciation there is no gain by reallocating capital from poor to rich countries or vice versa. Furthermore, I find that profits have increased globally, but that the rise in profits is more pronounced in rich countries.

    The Life Cycle of Profits Old firms make more profits than young firms, and nowadays profits are more back-loaded than thirty years ago. I study to what extent this changing life-cycle pattern of profits explains the observed rise in profits and fall in firm entry. I build a quantitative life cycle model with oligopolistic competition and an occupational choice between being an entrepreneur and being a worker. All else equal, the more back-loaded profits are, the lower the value of the firm due to discounting, and therefore the fewer agents choose to be an entrepreneur. In equilibrium, aggregate profits rise to a level such that agents are indifferent between occupations. I find that the observed change in the life-cycle pattern of profits explains about two-thirds of the rise in profits, and more than fully explains the fall in firm entry.

    Diffusion of Ideas in Networks and Endogenous Search I study the diffusion of technology when the decision to search for productivity-enhancing technologies depends on the network of interactions between agents. Agents have the option to engage in costly learning from their first-degree connections. The more productive an agent's connections, the more willing it is to learn. Hence, the network affects the reservation productivity at which agents choose to learn and affects therefore aggregate productivity. I find that the denser the network, the higher learning effort and therefore the higher total factor productivity and the lower inequality. However, the effect of the network on the share of agents that learn in equilibrium is ambiguous. Furthermore, I find that nodes that are central in terms of their closeness to other nodes tend to exert more learning effort and have a higher productivity.

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  • 3.
    van Vlokhoven, Has
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    The effect of open access on research quality2019In: Journal of Informetrics, ISSN 1751-1577, E-ISSN 1875-5879, Vol. 13, no 2, p. 751-756Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The number of articles being published open access has been increasing and some research funders are starting to mandate their researchers to publish solely in open access-only journals. Reasons to promote open access include that it might lower costs and increase the diffusion of knowledge. One unintended consequence of moving to a system in which all journals are APC-based open access might be that high-quality journals become more lenient and start accepting lower quality articles compared to what they would do under subscription-based access. Using a game-theoretical analysis I show that this is indeed the case as long as readers value research quality to some extent. Moreover, if in addition to open access authors are no longer evaluated based on metrics of the journals in which they publish then quality standards of journals will deteriorate further. Hence, journals will no longer be providing the service of selecting the highest quality articles to its readers. This might in fact lower the diffusion of knowledge, as readers will have to spend more time on judging the quality, being at odds with one of the main reasons for promoting open access. 

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