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  • 1. de Boer, M. Karin
    et al.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Matthiessen, Birte
    Hillebrand, Helmut
    Eriksson, Britas Klemens
    Dispersal restricts local biomass but promotes the recovery of metacommunities after temperature stress2014In: Oikos, ISSN 0030-1299, E-ISSN 1600-0706, Vol. 123, no 6, p. 762-768Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Landscape connectivity can increase the capacity of communities to maintain their function when environments change by promoting the immigration of species or populations with adapted traits. However, high immigration may also restrict fine tuning of species compositions to local environmental conditions by homogenizing the community. Here we demonstrate that dispersal generates such a tradeoff between maximizing local biomass and the capacity of model periphyton metacommunities to recover after a simulated heat wave. In non-disturbed metacommunities, dispersal decreased the total biomass by preventing differentiation in species composition between the local patches making up the metacommunity. On the contrary, in metacommunities exposed to a realistic summer heat wave, dispersal promoted recovery by increasing the biomass of heat tolerant species in all local patches. Thus, the heat wave reorganized the species composition of the metacommunities and after an initial decrease in total biomass by 38.7%, dispersal fueled a full recovery of biomass in the restructured metacommunities. Although dispersal may decrease equilibrium biomass, our results highlight that connectivity is a key requirement for the response diversity that allows ecological communities to adapt to climate change through species sorting.

  • 2.
    Elmhagen, Bodil
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Angerbjörn, Anders
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Borgström, Sara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boyd, Emily
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Reading, England.
    Cousins, Sara A. O.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dalen, Love
    Ehrlén, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Ermold, Matti
    Hambäck, Peter A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Hedlund, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Hylander, Kristoffer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Lagerholm, Vendela K.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology. Swedish Museum of Natural History, Sweden.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nykvist, Björn
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Pasanen-Mortensen, Marianne
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Plue, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    van der Velde, Ype
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Wageningen University & Research Center, Netherlands.
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 1, article id UNSP 23Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

  • 3.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Function follows Form: Trait-based approaches to climate change effects on wetland vegetation and functioning2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change and habitat fragmentation are altering the structure and functioning of plant communities world-wide. Understanding how, why and with what consequences are major challenges of ecology today. Trait-based approaches focus on functional rather than taxonomic identity to facilitate process-based explanation and prediction. This thesis develops new ways of operationalising traits to understand plant community responses to the environment and community effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Wetlands, distinct in nature and patchy in their distribution, serve as a natural laboratory to extend plant trait theory and as inspiration for metacommunity modelling.

    The first part of the thesis (Papers 1 and 2) focuses on wetland plant traits in relation to current and future environmental conditions, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. Paper 1 surveys the state of knowledge regarding (i) ultimate and proximate drivers of wetland plant community functional composition, trait covariation and responses of individual traits along gradients, as well as (ii) trait effects on the sets of ecosystem properties and processes that underlie the generation of three key wetland ecosystem services (regulation of water flow, water quality, and climate). Paper 2 modifies species distribution modelling to predict future changes in plant community trait distributions due to climate change in central Sweden, which allows a qualitative estimate of changes in ecosystem service potential. Climate change induced functional changes may benefit water quality and flow regulation provided by fens and riparian wetlands, but compromise carbon sequestration capacity in bogs.

    The second part of the thesis (Papers 3 and 4) develops trait-based metacommunity models to study the interplay of local and regional dynamics on species, community and whole-metacommunity responses to climate change. Paper 3 finds model assumptions about species dispersal capacity to strongly influence predictions of diversity loss following climate change. While differences in species dispersal capacity drastically increase predicted extinction risk, more realistic models based on an empirically derived seed mass – seed number trade-off strongly moderate these predictions. Without considering fitness effects of covarying traits, models that include variable dispersal capacities thus might overestimate extinction risk from climate change. Paper 4 studies the development and recovery of the regional average trait-lag of response trait distributions, as a direct measure of the instantaneous realised metacommunity response to temperature change with implications for levels of ecosystem functioning. The dynamical response jointly depended on local response capacity and regional adaptive re-organisation via species range shifts. Where habitat was scarce, connectivity network properties mediated response capacity and may guide conservation priorities.

    This thesis makes contributions to plant trait ecology, wetland functional ecology, ecosystem service science and metacommunity theory. As a whole it furthers progress towards a predictive ecology that can bridge scales from individual physiology to ecosystem dynamics and anticipate global change effects on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

  • 4.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Life History Trade-off Moderates Model Predictions of Diversity Loss from Climate ChangeManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and differences in dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and differences in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Differences in dispersal capacity, however, are part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity.

    Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity (variable dispersal scenario) caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off (trade-off scenario) based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Predictions including the seed mass - seed number trade- off were closer to predictions from models assuming uniform dispersal capacity (uniform dispersal scenario) than to models with random differences in dispersal capacity. Where climate change effects on large scale diversity patterns are of interest, the simplified assumption of uniform dispersal could therefore be the more cautious modelling choice. 

  • 5.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 5, article id e0177778Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.

  • 6.
    Moor, Helen
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hylander, Kristoffer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. 113-126Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrstrom area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

  • 7.
    Moor, Helen
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rydin, Håkan
    Hylander, Kristoffer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Nilsson, Mats B.
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Towards a trait-based ecology of wetland vegetationManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    1. Functional traits mechanistically capture plant responses to environmental gradients as well as plant effects on ecosystem functioning. Yet most trait-based theory stems from terrestrial systems and extension to other habitats can provide new insights.

    2. Wetlands differ from terrestrial systems in conditions (e.g. soil water saturation, anoxia, pH extremes), plant adaptations (e.g. aerenchyma, clonality, ubiquity of bryophytes) and important processes (e.g. denitrification, peat accumulation, methane emission). Wetland plant adaptations and trait (co-)variation can be situated along major plant trait trade-off axes (e.g. the resource economics spectrum), but soil saturation represents a complex stress gradient beyond a simple extension of commonly studied water availability gradients.

    3. Traits that affect ecosystem functioning overlap with patterns in terrestrial systems. But wetland-specific traits that mediate plant effects on soil redox conditions, microbial communities and on water flow, as well as trait spectra of mosses, vary among wetland types.

    4. Synthesis: With increasing availability of quantitative plant traits a trait-based ecology of wetlands is emerging, with the potential to advance process-based understanding and prediction. We provide an interactive cause-and-effect framework that may guide research efforts to disentangle the multiple interacting processes involved in scaling from environmental conditions to ecosystem functioning via plant communities. 

  • 8.
    Norberg, Jon
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moor, Helen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Amplitude and timescale of metacommunity trait-lag response to climate changeManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is altering the structure and functioning of communities. Trait-based approaches are powerful predictive tools that allow consideration of changes in structure and functioning simultaneously. The realised biomass-weighted trait distribution of a community rests on the ecophysiology of individuals, but integrates local species interactions and spatial dynamics that feed back to ecosystem functioning. Consider a response trait that determines species performance (e.g. growth rate) as a function of an environmental variable (e.g. temperature). The change in this response trait's distribution following directional environmental change integrates all factors contributing to the community's response and directly reflects the community's response capacity.

    Here we introduce the average regional community trait-lag (TLMC) as a novel measure of whole-metacommunity response to warming. We show that functional compensation (shifts in resident species relative abundances) confers initial response capacity to communities by reducing and delaying the initial development of a trait-lag. Metacommunity adaptive capacity in the long-term, however, was dependent on dispersal and species tracking of their climate niche by incremental traversal of the landscape. With increasing inter-patch distances, network properties of the functional connectivity network became increasingly more important, and may guide prioritisation of habitat for conservation.

1 - 8 of 8
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