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  • 1.
    Tham, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Individual Prediction and Crime Trends2009In: European Journal of Criminology, ISSN 1477-3708, 1741-2609, Vol. 6, no 4, p. 313-335Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A typical solution proposed by both politicians and academics to the problem of crime in society today is individual prediction and early intervention. The question then is how this approachcontributes to the central question of how to explain trends in crime. Data used to illustrate this question are drawn mainly from prediction studies, official statistics and level-of-living surveys in Sweden. It is argued that the possibility of predicting or explaining trends in crime by individual data is quite limited. First, the predictive power of individual childhood or teenage properties is too weak to explain total crime or specific types of crime. Second, changes in aggregate measures of conditions during upbringing are not easily compatible with changes in trends in crime. Third, other variables relating to changes in the opportunity structure than changes in the family of upbringing can account for the development of crime trends.

  • 2.
    Tham, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Politikerna, kriminologerna och kriminalpolitiken i Sverige och USA2014In: Motmæle: en antologi til Kjersti Ericsson, Cecilie Höigård og Guri Larsen / [ed] Liv Finstad, Heidi Mork Lomell, Oslo: Novus Forlag, 2014, p. 419-433Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 3.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Anmerkungen zum Forschungsstand zur Erklärung von Gefangenenraten2010In: Kriminalität, Kriminalpolitik, strafrechtliche Sanktionspraxis und Gefangenenraten im europäischen Vergleich / [ed] Frieder Dünkel, Tapio Lappi-Seppäla, Christine Morgenstern, Dirk van Zyl Smit, Mönchengladbach: Forum Verlag Godesberg , 2010, Band 1, p. 25-50Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 4.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Brott och straff i Sverige: Historisk kriminalstatistik 1750-2005. Diagram, tabeller och kommentarer2008Book (Other academic)
  • 5.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future2014In: Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, ISSN 1404-3858, E-ISSN 1651-2340, Vol. 15, no 2, p. 167-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article analyses 34 Swedish birth cohorts with regard to their participation in crime as measured by data from the convictions database maintained by Statistics Sweden. Most existing cohort studies are limited to one or a few cohorts. By contrast, the present study includes 34 cohorts, i.e. all persons born in Sweden between 1958 and 1991. The article discusses methodological problems associated with this type of approach and examines the possibility of making forecasts. The central results are that the number of males with a criminal record has decreased, whereas the number of females has remained fairly stable. Forecasts indicate that the cohorts' participation in crime will continue to decrease. Research and policy implications of the findings are outlined. It is proposed to introduce cohort statistics as a standard branch within regular criminal justice statistics.

  • 6.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Der internationale Kriminalitätsvergleich mit Hilfe der Statistik2009In: Internationales Handbuch der Kriminologie. Band 2.: Besondere Probleme der Kriminologie / [ed] Hans Joachim Schneider, Berlin: De Gruyter Recht , 2009, p. 121-144Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 7.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    En översyn av påföljdssystemet (Dir. 2009:60)2011In: Festskrift till Per Ole Träskman / [ed] [redaktionskommitté: Ulrika Andersson, Christoffer Wong, Helén Örnemark Hansen], Stockholm: Norstedts , 2011, p. 238-246Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Artikeln är en kritisk granskning av Dir. 2009:60 kriminalpolitiska utgångspunkter.

  • 8.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Fångtal och kriminalpolitik2008In: Ikke kun straf...: Festskrift til Vagn Greve, 2008Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 9.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    "Justice is the foundation of governance"? Saddam Husseins, Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikritis och Awad al-Bandars avrättningar2007In: Brott i välfärden: Om brottslighet, utsatthet och kriminalpolitik. Festskrift till Henrik Tham, Stockholm: Stockholms universitet, Kriminologiska institutionen , 2007, p. 462-Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 10.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Kommentar till Peter Lindström2008In: Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab, ISSN 0029-1528, Vol. 95, no 2, p. 173-178Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In a rejoinder to a paper (Lindström, 2008, in Swedish) that claims that a10 percent increase in the number of prisoners in Sweden decreases the number of homicides by 5 percent during the subsequent year, the authorshows that this claim is a methodological and conceptual artefact. Using data from Swedish conviction statistics (1981-2006), it is shown that the temporal distribution of the incidence of homicide is identical for perpetrators sentenced to custodial and non-custodial sanctions, respectively. Since the average stay in Swedish prisons is short (ca. 5 months), lasting incapacitative effects are impossible to obtain given the temporal distribution of Swedish homicide events. The author joins the ranks of scholars criticizingthe use of regression modelling as a superior research strategy.

  • 11.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Kriminalstatistik, makt och kontroll2012In: Kontrollens variationer / [ed] Lotta Pettersson och Tove Pettersson, Lund: Studentlitteratur, 2012, 1:1, p. 275-290Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Artikeln illustrerar att (kriminal)statistiken fyller en viktig roll i den demokratiska opinionsbildningsprocessen. Den har inte bara en kontrollfunktion uppifrån ("Herrschaftswissen"), utan också en nerifrån ("Bürgerwissen"). Den kan användas av medborgarna för att kontrollera maktutövningen och utkräva ansvar.

  • 12.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Lagföringsutvecklingen2008In: Brottsutvecklingen i Sverige fram till år 2007: Rapport 2008:23, Brottsförebyggande rådet/Fritzes, Stockholm , 2008, p. 417-447Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 13.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Leif Lenke in memoriam: Valda skrifter2009Collection (editor) (Other academic)
  • 14.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser: Long-term forecasting of prison populations2010In: Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab, ISSN 0029-1528, Vol. 97, no 2, p. 132-149Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The article discusses whether it is possible to make reliable predictions of prison populations five to ten years in advance. This period corresponds approximately to the planning period that the Swedish Prison and Probation Service considers necessary for building new prisons. After a brief description of forecasting and its various methods, three quantitative forecasting methods are discussed: trend projections, extrapolations from causal models, and statistical modelling. Swedish and international prison population data (comprising years between 1961 and 2010) are used as illustrations. It is concluded that accurate long-term forecasts are unlikely, since prison population data tend to show strong random walk patterns.

  • 15.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Ole-Jørgen Skog: Skam og skade2009In: Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab, ISSN 0029-1528, Vol. 96, no 2, p. 203-205Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 16.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    On background and causes of juvenile crime in Sweden2013In: Zbornik za Alenko Šelih : kazensko pravo, kriminologija, človekove pravice = Essays in honour of Alenka Šelih : criminal law, criminology, human rights / [ed] Matjaz Ambroz, Katja Filipcic, Ales Zavrsnik, Ljubljana: Institut za kriminologijo pri Pravni fakulteti , 2013, p. 413-425Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 17.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Prison Polulations as Political Constructs: The Case of Finland, Holland, and Sweden.2008In: Global Criminology and Criminal Justice: Current Issues and Perspectives / [ed] Nick Larsen & Russell Charles Smandyck, Peterborough, Ont.: Broadview Press , 2008, p. 415-432Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Countries such as Finland, Holland and Sweden have witnessed similar economic and social developments and have been affected by similar crime trends. However, over the past 50 years, the daily prison populations in these three Northern European countries have developed very differently. An attempt is made here to discuss these diverse developments in the light of a perspective that treats daily prison populations as political constructs.

  • 18.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Schweden2010In: Kriminalität, Kriminalpolitik, strafrechtliche Sanktionspraxis und Gefangenenraten im europäischen Vergleic / [ed] Frieder Dünkel, Tapio Lappi-Seppälä, Christine Morgenstern, Dirk van Zyl Smit, Mönchengladbach: Forum Verlag Godesberg , 2010, Band 2, p. 761-781Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 19.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Sweden2010In: Crime and Punishment Around the World: Europe / [ed] Marcelo F. Aebi and Véronique Jaquier, Volume editors, Graeme R. Newman, General editor, Santa Barbara, California: ABC-CLIO, LLC , 2010, p. 332-342Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 20.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Sweden and the Death Penalty: Witn annotations in Chinese2013In: Unpublished version. Verbal Presentation Only., 2013Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    1. This short presentation discussed the impact of the death penalty on deadly violence in Sweden, Finland, (Denmark, Norway), the US, and Eastern Europe during varying time periods. 2. The simple result is that the application as well as the abolition of the death penalty in these countries evidently exerted no impact on the level or developmentof deadly violence during the periods studied. 3. Thus, the use of the death penalty as an efficient deterrent is not proved as an empirical fact in these countries. 4. The use of the death penalty appears first and foremost as a question of values and political considerations. 5. The death penalty has been abolished in all the countries studied here – with the exception of the US. 6. Alcohol consumption and political instability appear as strong determinants of deadly violence.

  • 21.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    The lives of others: Swedish incarceration rates, 1910-20112013In: Kriminologie, Kriminalpolitik und Strafrecht aus internationaler Perspektive: Festschrift für Martin Killias zum 65. Geburtstag / [ed] André Kuhn, Pierre Margot, Marcelo F. Aebi, Christian Schwarzenegger, Andreas Donatsch, Daniel Jositsch, Bern: Stämpfli Verlag , 2013, p. 1183-1189Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 22.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Åtgärder mot ungdomsbrottslighet2013In: Den svenska ungdomsbrottsligheten / [ed] Felipe Estrada, Janne Flyghed, Lund: Studentlitteratur, 2013, 3, p. 333-349Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Bidraget tar upp en teoretisk och principiell diskussion kring vad som är möjligt respektive önskvärt beträffande samhällets åtgärder mot ungdomsbrottsligheten.

  • 23.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Bogestam, Nadja
    Brottsförebyggande rådet .
    Påföljdsutvecklingen2012In: Brottsutvecklingen i Sverige 2008-2011 / [ed] Johanna Hagstedt, Stockholm: Brottsförebyggande rådet , 2012, p. 304-331Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Påföljdsutvecklingen i Sverige under åren 1975–2011 kan sammanfattasi följande punkter:• Det svenska påföljdssystemet kännetecknas av många olikapåföljder och påföljdskombinationer.• De flesta lagföringar avser böter i någon form, vilket speglardet faktum att många brott som lagförs är av lindrigare slag.• Användningen av andra påföljder än böter har överlag varitmycket stabil.• Villkorlig dom är dock den påföljden som har ökat mest.• Samtidigt som allt färre unga personer lagförs för brott, lagförsde allt oftare inför domstol (istället för att få ett strafföreläggandeeller en åtalsunderlåtelse).• Användningen av fängelsestraff har minskat i antal, medanden utdömda strafftiden har blivit längre. Det har inneburitatt antalet intagna på fängelserna har ökat.• Fängelsepopulationen består idag i huvudsak av personersom dömts för befattning med narkotika samt för vålds- ochsexualbrott. Stöldbrott är numera ovanliga som intagningsgrund.

  • 24.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Lappi-Seppälä, Tapio
    The development of crime in light of Finnish and Swedish criminal justice statistics, circa 1750-2010:  2014In: European Journal of Criminology, ISSN 1477-3708, E-ISSN 1741-2609, Vol. 11, no 2, p. 169-194Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyses four historical time series on homicide, assault, robbery and theft from Finnish and Swedish vital and conviction (judicial) statistics. It is suggested that long-term criminal justice statistics – at least in Finland and Sweden  – are highly usable and that they add relevant basic knowledge to important current criminological and crime policy issues. It is concluded that law reforms are greatly influential in terms of changes in the sanctioning system (strong evidence of policy impact); but law reforms do not contribute to lasting changes in the development of crime as measured by conviction statistics (no substantiated evidence of crime impact). In the long run, crime seems to persistently evade the manifold legislative efforts to ‘combat’ it.

  • 25.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Lappi-Seppälä, Tapio
    Westfelt, Lars
    Nordic Criminal Statistics 1950-2010: Summary of a report. 8th revised edition2012 (ed. 8)Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In a joint Nordic project, criminal statistics from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden were compiled under the auspices of the Nordic Committee on Criminal Statistics (NUK) and were published under the title Nordisk kriminalstatistik 1950-1980 in 1982.

    In December of 1982, the first abbreviated English language version of this report was published.  For this 8th edition of the English version, the original data have been updated for the years up to and including 2010 and now cover 61 years of Nordic criminal justice statistics.

    This edition has been furnished with an updated summary on crime and punishment in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. An Appendix is discussing the pitfalls of ad hoc chart reading.

  • 26.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Nilsson, Anders
    Brott i välfärden: Om brottslighet, utsatthet och kriminalpolitik : Festskrift till Henrik Tham2007Collection (editor) (Other academic)
  • 27.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Tham, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Lag och rätt2009In: Exposé: Samhällskunskap Kurs AB, Stockholm: Liber , 2009, 3:e, p. 66-98Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 28.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Tham, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology. European Society of Criminology, Prague, Czech Republic.
    Punishment in Sweden: A Changing Penal Landscape2013In: Punishment in Europe: A Critical Anatomy of Penal Systems / [ed] Vincenzo Ruggiero, Mick Ryan, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013, p. 33-57Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 29.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Tham, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    "Strafftiden för våldsbrott har ökat dramatiskt"2009Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Professorer i kriminologi underkänner regeringens utredningsförslag om höjda straff för våldsbrott: Med dagens långa fängelsetider har regeringens syften redan uppnåtts.

  • 30.
    von Hofer, Hanns
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Tham, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
    Stöld i Sverige 1831-20082010In: Samhällsproblem / [ed] Ted Goldberg, Lund: Studentlitteratur , 2010, 7, p. 407-429Chapter in book (Other academic)
1 - 30 of 30
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