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  • 1.
    Blasiak, Robert
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The University of Tokyo, Japan; United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Japan.
    Spijkers, Jessica
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. James Cook University, Australia.
    Tokunaga, Kanae
    Pittman, Jeremy
    Yagi, Nobuyuki
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 6, article id e0179632Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries' adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.

  • 2.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Larsson, Per
    Andersson, Agneta
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. 507-515Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.

  • 3.
    Bodin, Örjan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    International fisheries regime effectiveness: Activities and resources of key actors in the Southern Ocean2013In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 23, no 5, p. 948-956Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many contemporary environmental challenges are truly global and span several organizational and geographical borders. Research on international environmental regimes has, over the last couple of decades, identified several important factors that contribute to a more effective governance of global ecological resources, but few studies have addressed the different roles certain influential individual organizations play in determining regime effectiveness. Here we address this question by studying a relatively successful fishery governance system in the Southern Ocean. By drawing on insights from the research fields of common-pool resource management and international environmental regimes, we demonstrate that organizations engaged in certain combinations of activities, and that have access to certain combinations of resources stand out as important for regime effectiveness. In particular, collaboration with other flag states and being politically well-connected stand out as important explanatory factors. However, access to advanced technology, engagement in public campaigns, and being active in the field are other factors that, in different combinations, also seem to explain organizational importance. Furthermore, governmental and non-governmental organizations tend to perform different sets of activities and possess different resources, thereby complementing each other. Also, organizations doing similar things are often of different types with different mandates and objectives. This could contribute to improved adaptability and responsiveness to change at the larger regime level. Finally, we discuss some potential implications of our results for capacity-building in international environmental governance.

  • 4.
    Crona, Beatrice I.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of East Anglia, UK.
    Swartz, Wilf
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Thyresson, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Masked, diluted and drowned out: how global seafood trade weakens signals from marine ecosystems2016In: Fish and Fisheries, ISSN 1467-2960, E-ISSN 1467-2979, Vol. 17, no 4, p. 1175-1182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nearly 40% of seafood is traded internationally and an even bigger proportion is affected by international trade, yet scholarship on marine fisheries has focused on global trends in stocks and catches, or on dynamics of individual fisheries, with limited attention to the link between individual fisheries, global trade and distant consumers. This paper examines the usefulness of fish price as a feedback signal to consumers about the state of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We suggest that the current nature of fisheries systems and global markets prevent transmission of such price signals from source fisheries to consumers. We propose several mechanisms that combine to weaken price signals, and present one example - the North Sea cod - to show how these mechanisms can be tested. The lack of a reliable price feedback to consumers represents a challenge for sustainable fisheries governance. We therefore propose three complimentary approaches to address the missing feedback: (i) strengthening information flow through improved traceability and visibility of individual fishers to consumers, (ii) capitalizing on the changing seafood trade structures and (iii) bypassing and complementing market mechanisms by directly targeting citizens and political actors regarding marine environmental issues through publicity and information campaigns. These strategies each havelimitations and thus need to be pursued together to address the challenge of sustainability in global marine fisheries.

  • 5. Cross, Adam D. P.
    et al.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    McGill, Rona A. R.
    Furness, Robert W.
    Isotopic analysis of island House Martins Delichon urbica indicates marine provenance of nutrients2014In: Ibis, ISSN 0019-1019, E-ISSN 1474-919X, Vol. 156, no 3, p. 676-681Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The presence of one of the largest colonies of House Martins in Europe on the small island of Stora Karlso, Sweden, led us to investigate the source of their food by analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Carbon isotopic values of House Martin nestlings were the same as those of Common Guillemot Uria aalge nestlings fed on marine fish, but differed from local Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis nestlings fed on woodland insects. We infer that these House Martins fed their chicks almost exclusively on insects that had used nutrients derived from seabirds, indicating a dependence on the presence of a large seabird colony. We suggest by extension that some populations of island passerines of high conservation importance may also be dependent on nutrient subsidies from seabird colonies.

  • 6. Eriksson, Hampus
    et al.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Andrew, Neil
    Wilen, James
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Contagious exploitation of marine resources2015In: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, ISSN 1540-9295, E-ISSN 1540-9309, Vol. 13, no 8, p. 435-440Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Global seafood sourcing networks are expanding to meet demand. To describe contemporary fishery expansion patterns, we analyzed the worldwide exploitation of sea cucumber (Echinodermata: Holothuroidea) traded via Hong Kong for consumers in China. In just 15 years (1996-2011), the sea cucumber sourcing network expanded from 35 to 83 countries; sea cucumber fisheries serving the Chinese market now operate within countries cumulatively spanning over 90% of the world's tropical coastlines. The emergence of such fisheries in nations where they were previously absent could not be explained either by their national governance capacity or by their distance from Hong Kong. Surging imports from these new fisheries have compensated for declines in long-standing fisheries elsewhere. The case of commercial sea cucumber trade for the Chinese market exemplifies a new global extraction phenomenon that we call contagious resource exploitation - a fast-moving system resembling a disease epidemic, where long-distance transport expedites large-scale expansion followed by diffusive local spread into neighboring areas. Multi-level and multi-scale decision making is urgently needed to control and mitigate the effects of contagious exploitation.

  • 7.
    Folke, Carl
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Jansson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ebbesson, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Law, Department of Law, Stockholm Environmental Law and Policy Centre.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moberg, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Albaeco, Stockholm, Sweden .
    Nilsson, Måns
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT, Australia .
    Reconnecting to the biosphere2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, no 7, p. 719-738Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere-a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

  • 8.
    Galaz, Victor
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Polycentric systems and interacting planetary boundaries: Emerging governance of climate change—ocean acidification—marine biodiversity2012In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 81, p. 21-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Planetary boundaries and their interactions pose severe challenges for global environmental governance due to their inherent uncertainties and complex multi-scale dynamics. Here we explore the global governance challenge posed by planetary boundaries interactions by focusing on the role of polycentric systems and order, a theoretical field that has gained much interest in the aftermath of claims of a stagnant UN-process. In the first part we work toward a clarification of polycentric order in an international context, and develop three propositions. We then present a case study of the emergence of international polycentricity to address interacting planetary boundaries, namely the climate change, ocean acidification and loss of marine biodiversity complex. This is done through a study of the Global Partnership on Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA) initiative. As the case study indicates, a range of mechanisms of polycentric order (ranging from information sharing to coordinated action and conflict resolution) operates at the international level through the interplay between individuals, international organizations and their collaboration patterns. While polycentric coordination of this type certainly holds potential, it is also vulnerable to internal tensions, unreliable external flows of funding, and negative institutional interactions.

  • 9.
    Galaz, Victor
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Global networks and global change-induced tipping points2016In: International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, ISSN 1567-9764, E-ISSN 1573-1553, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 189-221Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The existence of tipping points in human-environmental systems at multiple scales-such as abrupt negative changes in coral reef ecosystems, runaway climate change, and interacting nonlinear planetary boundariesaEurois often viewed as a substantial challenge for governance due to their inherent uncertainty, potential for rapid and large system change, and possible cascading effects on human well-being. Despite an increased scholarly and policy interest in the dynamics of these perceived tipping points, institutional and governance scholars have yet to make progress on how to analyze in which ways state and non-state actors attempt to anticipate, respond, and prevent the transgression of tipping points at large scales. In this article, we use three cases of global network responses to what we denote as global change-induced tipping pointsaEuroocean acidification, fisheries collapse, and infectious disease outbreaks. Based on the commonalities in several research streams, we develop four working propositions: information processing and early warning, multilevel and multinetwork responses, diversity in response capacity, and the balance between efficiency and legitimacy. We conclude by proposing a simple framework for the analysis of the interplay between perceived global change-induced tipping points, global networks, and international institutions.

  • 10.
    Hentati Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Oslo, Norway.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Management Forcing Increased Specialization in a Fishery System2015In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 45-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fisheries systems are shaped by dynamic social-ecological interactions that determine their capacity to provide ecosystem services. Human adaptation is often considered a key uncertainty, and there are few quantitative empirical analyses that address long-term social and ecological change in the analyses of fisheries systems. The aim of this study was twofold: (i) to understand how different drivers influenced the adaptations by fishers, and (ii) to evaluate different consequences of such adaptations, especially with regard to diversity of social and ecological links. We used the Baltic Sea as a case study, a system with different fisheries, largely managed with a single-stock advice, in a top-down basis. The study period 1995-2009 was characterized by profound inter-annual fluctuations in fish stock status and prices, and introduction of new types of management measures. We used multivariate statistical methods to define longitudinal changes in fishing tactics and strategies based on logbook data. Our results indicate that changes in fishing strategies have mainly been driven by regulations, and there were only weak linkages between fishing activities, fish stocks, and price fluctuations. We found contrasting trends between large- and small-scale fishers, where large-scale fishers became more specialized and inflexible, whereas small-scale fishers diversified over time. We conclude that management has had a dominating role in shaping fishing patterns, leading to a reduction of important qualities related to the resilience in this social-ecological system.

  • 11.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Deyle, E.
    Ye, H.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Sugihara, G.
    Strong nonlinearities in an ever-changing social-ecological system: A data-driven empirical study of the historical development of the Baltic SeaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding linked social and ecological dynamics is a pre-requisite for sustainable use of natural resources. Integrated quantitative studies of such linked systems have however been scarce due to lack of suitable methods and data. In this paper, we apply state-of-the-art nonlinear time series methods (EDM) to nine decades of spatially explicit fisheries data to investigate their empirical dynamics. We found that fish prices, and to a less extent fish catches, were predictable beyond linear change or temporal correlations, and highly nonlinear. Moreover, we found that the system appeared to be drifting, indicating gradual changes in internal feedback strength and thus limiting predictability over long time periods. Our results indicate that predictability in social-ecological systems may be relatively modest, which may call for an adaptive, risk-averse approach to ecosystem management. 

  • 12.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Does fisheries management incentivize non-compliance? Estimated misreporting in the Swedish Baltic Sea pelagic fishery based on commercial fishing effort2014In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 71, no 7, p. 1846-1853Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fisheries management agencies and fishing industry representatives depend on reliable estimates of fish biomass and mortality for the determin- ation of sustainable catch levels. Lack of data or misreporting may be reasons for unreliable stock assessment, which, in turn, may result in advice that does not reflect the availability of fisheries resources. It has been suggested that the mixed pelagic trawl fisheries in the Baltic represent a case of biased estimates of fish biomass and mortality resulting from misreporting. Here, we estimate the degree of misreporting in the Swedish pelagic fishery (1996 – 2009) and propose an approach for reconstructing historical catches based on commercial effort data. The analysis suggests that total catches have been underestimated during part of our study period and that systematic misreporting of species composition has taken place over the whole study period. The analysis also suggests that there is overcapacity in the fishery and that such economic incentive could explain the general patterns of misreporting. Applying our method for fisheries with suspected misreporting could significantly improve assessment accuracy, reduce uncertainty and thereby allow for a better link between catches and resource levels. 

  • 13.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kadin, Martina
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jansson, Åke
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The Karlsö Murre Lab methodology can stimulate innovative seabird research2012In: Marine Ornithology, ISSN 1018-3337, E-ISSN 2074-1235, Vol. 40, p. 11-16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies of seabirds have contributed substantially to theoretical and applied ecology, but practical limitations in the field and lack of knowledge of the life history of studied birds often constitute significant hurdles to progress in research. In the middle of the largest seabird colony in the Baltic Sea, on the island of Stora Karlsö, we have built an artificial breeding site for Common Murres Uria aalge. The Karlsö Murre Lab enables high-resolution studies with minimal disturbance of the breeding birds. It became operational, with the first recruitment of breeding murres, in 2009. Building materials and location were chosen to minimize environmental impact. The lab was constructed to allow future outfitting with a range of high-technology devices. Since most of the fledged chicks in the subcolony have been ringed over the last 10 years, this will enable recruitment and studies using advanced technology of birds with known life history. Hence, we will be able to perform seabird studies with a resolution that is impossible in a strictly natural environment. Better knowledge of links between seabirds and their environment facilitates the use of seabirds as indicators, which in turn can improve marine ecosystem-based management. 

  • 14. Hughes, TP
    et al.
    Gunderson, LH
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Baird, AH
    Bellwood, D
    Berkes, F
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Helfgott, A
    Leslie, H
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Olsson, Per
    interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Scheffer, M
    Schuttenberg, H
    Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas2007In: Ambio, Vol. 36, no 7, p. 586-592Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Bignert, Anders
    Swedish Museum of Natural History.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Trends, changes and uncertainties in bycatch of common murres in the Baltic SeaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Contrasting effects of food quality and quantity on a marine top predator2012In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 444, p. 239-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Overfishing of predatory fish has contributed to an increase in forage-fish stocks. At the same time, a rising demand for forage fish to supply fishmeal markets, in combination with ­climate change, has put strong pressure on these stocks, and this, in turn, has had an impact on marine top predators. We examined how inter-annual variation in food quality (sprat Sprattus sprattus weight-at-age) and quantity (sprat abundance) influenced Baltic Sea common murres Uria aalge during chick-rearing. Fledging success, i.e. survival from hatching to fledging, showed a positive relationship with food quality, but we found no effect of food quantity. We found no relationship between food quality and parental behaviour or chick feeding parameters, but a negative relationship between food quantity and trip duration. Our data indicate that there was room for parental birds to increase their effort to compensate for reduced food quality, but we found no signs of such compensation. We analysed different types of fish and seabird life-history data to separate effects of food quantity and quality on a top predator. Understanding such effects can contribute to clarifying causes and consequences for observed changes in life-history parameters and population dynamics of top predators.

  • 17. Kaiser, Brooks A.
    et al.
    Bakanev, Sergey
    Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedso
    Carson, Marcus
    Eide, Arne
    Fernandez, Linda
    Halpin, Patrick
    Izmalkov, Sergei
    Kyhn, Line A.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Punt, Maarten
    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars
    Sanchirico, James
    Sokolov, Konstantin
    Sundet, Jan H.
    Thorarinsdottir, Gudrun G.
    Vestergaard, Niels
    Spatial issues in Arctic marine resource governance workshop summary and comment2015In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 58, p. 1-5Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The rapidly changing Arctic marine ecosystems face new challenges and opportunities that are increasing and shifting governance needs in the region. A group of economists, ecologists, biologists, political scientists and resource managers met in Stockholm, SE, Sept 4-6, 2014 to discuss the governance of Arctic marine resources in a spatial context. We report on the findings here.

  • 18.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Quaas, Martin F.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 35, p. 11120-11125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  • 19. Maury, O.
    et al.
    Campling, L.
    Arrizabalaga, H.
    Aumont, O.
    Bopp, L.
    Merino, G.
    Squires, D.
    Cheung, W.
    Goujon, M.
    Guivarch, C.
    Lefort, S.
    Marsac, F.
    Monteagudo, P.
    Murtugudde, R.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Pulvenis, J. F.
    Ye, Y.
    van Ruijven, B. J.
    From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries2017In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 45, p. 203-216Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 sustainability first, OSP2 conventional trends, OSP3 dislocation, OSP4 global elite and inequality, OSP5 high tech and market), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

  • 20.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dunn, Daniel C.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boustany, Andre M.
    Takei, Yoshinobu
    Elferink, Alex Oude
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Christensen, Villy
    Halpin, Patrick N.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An ocean of surprises - Trends in human use, unexpected dynamics and governance challenges in areas beyond national jurisdiction2014In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 27, p. 19-31Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The expanse of ocean which makes up all marine areas beyond national jurisdiction has been characterized as the last frontier of exploitation on the planet, a figurative final Wild West. Existing users of areas beyond national jurisdiction, with the exception of fisheries, currently have a limited footprint there as a consequence, in part, of substantial hurdles in technological development that need to be overcome before many resources can be extracted at a commercially viable scale. However, we argue surprise shifts perpetuated by both established and emerging users could lead to an expansion in actors taking opportunities to chase lucrative resources that they are currently constrained from exploiting. Rapid development could also lead to a crowded ocean due to the multiplication of users which could present a problem given the current lack of a unified institutional framework for governance connecting the different user groups. Here, we have collated trends in human use of areas beyond national jurisdiction and offer a framework for, and examples of, unexpected dynamics relevant to living and non-living marine resources. Such an approach is necessary in order to begin to mobilize an adequate governance response to changing conditions and uses of areas beyond national jurisdiction. This governance response must be able to govern established or potential users, be flexible and adaptive in response to unexpected and unpredictable dynamics and be able to transform in the face of unpredictable future uses of this vast area. Here we present a set of institutional design principles as a first tentative step in this direction.

  • 21.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Keys, Patrick
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approachManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios are important tools in developing capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, as well as the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures. We contend that for most scientific scenarios 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and that 2) in attempting to engage with complexity they often fail to interest an audience outside of academia. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns, by drawing on narrative approaches to scenarios and applying the method of Science Fiction Prototyping. Using a rich and empirical scientific background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics, we develop four ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries. They are written for a wide audience and each was carefully designed to incorporate and extrapolate from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that Science Fiction Prototyping can complement existing methods for developing scenarios and can assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. This approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and thus more useful in discussion on policy and governance questions in marine fisheries. 

  • 22.
    Merrie, Andrew
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Keys, Patrick
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping2018In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 95, p. 22-32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrated social-ecological systems. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns by applying the method of science fiction prototyping to developing scenarios for the future of global fisheries in a changing global ocean. We used an empirically informed background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics to develop four 'radical ocean futures,' incorporating and extrapolating from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that the distinctive method as applied here can complement existing scenario methodologies and assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. The approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and can be useful for developing proactive governance mechanisms.

  • 23.
    Nyström, Magnus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Bleckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    de la Torre Castro, Maricela
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Eklöf, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Steneck, Robert
    School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine.
    Thyresson, Matilda
    Troell, Max
    The Beijer Institute, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
    Steering feedbacks toward healthier marine ecosystemsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine ecosystem decline is accelerating. At some point degradation may pass a tipping point beyond which ecosystems become trapped in alternative degraded states, as a result of changes in critical feedbacks. Self-reinforcing feedbacks pose a major challenge for managers and policy-makers seeking remedial actions to curb the marine crisis. Here we synthesize the dynamics of critical feedbacks of the degraded states in five socio-economically important marine ecosystems; coral reefs, kelp forests, seagrass beds, shallow unvegetated soft-bottom habitats, and coastal pelagic food webs. A better understanding of the way human actions influence the strength and direction of feedbacks, how different feedbacks interact and at what scales they operate, is crucial for successful implementation of marine ecosystem management. We advocate a critical-feedback management approach that ventures beyond traditionally discipline boundaries, as an essential element of marine ecosystem management.

  • 24.
    Nyström, Magnus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    de la Torre-Castro, Maricela
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Eklöf, Johan S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Folke, Carl
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Steneck, Robert S.
    Thyresson, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Troell, Max
    Confronting Feedbacks of Degraded Marine Ecosystems2012In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 15, no 5, p. 695-710Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In many coastal areas, marine ecosystems have shifted into contrasting states having reduced ecosystem services (hereafter called degraded). Such degraded ecosystems may be slow to revert to their original state due to new ecological feedbacks that reinforce the degraded state. A better understanding of the way human actions influence the strength and direction of feedbacks, how different feedbacks could interact, and at what scales they operate, may be necessary in some cases for successful management of marine ecosystems. Here we synthesize interactions of critical feedbacks of the degraded states from six globally distinct biomes: coral reefs, kelp forests, seagrass beds, shallow soft sediments, oyster reefs, and coastal pelagic food webs. We explore to what extent current management captures these feedbacks and propose strategies for how and when (that is, windows of opportunity) to influence feedbacks in ways to break the resilience of the degraded ecosystem states. We conclude by proposing some challenges for future research that could improve our understanding of these issues and emphasize that management of degraded marine states will require a broad social-ecological approach to succeed.

  • 25.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Tracing a pathway to success: How competing interest groups influenced the 2013 EU Common Fisheries Policy reform2017In: Environmental Science and Policy, ISSN 1462-9011, E-ISSN 1873-6416, Vol. 76, p. 90-102Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Adaptation of environmental policies to often unexpected crises is an important function of sustainable governance arrangements. However the relationship between environmental change and policy is complicated. Much research has focused on understanding institutional dynamics or the role of specific participants in the policy process. This paper draws attention to interest groups and the mechanism through which they influence policy change. Existing research offers conflicting evidence in regards to the different ways in which interest groups may affect change. This paper provides an in-depth study of the 2013 European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform a policy change characterized by active interest group participation. It traces the activity of interest group coalitions to understand how they achieved influence under a changing policy context. The study involves interviews with interest group representatives, policy experts and decision-makers, document analysis of interest group statements and EU legislative documents. Findings identify the important role of coalition building and informational lobbying for environmental interest group success in exploiting favorable sociopolitical conditions and influencing reform outcomes. An insight on interest group influence and its conditions contributes to our understanding of the complex dynamics of the environmental policy process as well as its implications for policy adaptation to environmental change.

  • 26.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Interests Influencing Information? Analyzing interest group contribution to information flows in EU Common Fisheries PolicyManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Information and knowledge is important for sustainably managing natural resources. Uncertainty and lack of information can lead to inability to identify and manage complex social-ecological feedbacks and slow change. However scientific information and knowledge, even when present, does not always find its way to policy and when it does – may fail to make any impact. Public policy researchers often stress the ever-present ambiguity, time constraints, lack of access and issue framing as some of the reasons why policy-relevant information may be misinterpreted or ignored. Resilience research recognizes the importance of participation of the broad diversity of stakeholders in the policy process for allowing a broader diversity of knowledge to influence decision-making and better detect and respond to environmental change. Organizing to influence policy, stakeholders may form interest groups that often engage in supplying information to policymakers as one of the ways to influence policy outcomes. Although interest groups undoubtedly contribute to the information flow within the policy process, it is unclear whether they contribute to the diversity of available information or are able to strengthen the link between scientific information and decision-making. Previous empirical research shows that agencies with own capacity to generate own information may ignore organized interests, while the quality and diversity of information provided by interest groups may vary significantly. This paper looks at the case of 2013 EU Common Fisheries Policy reform in order to find how interest group actors have contributed to the flow of issue-relevant information supplied to policymakers during the critical stages of the reform. It analyses interest group position papers, letters and briefings as well as interviews with interest group representatives and policymakers in order to assess the type of information supplied, its source, framing and recipients, aiming to get a broader picture of interest groups’ contribution. The paper finds that interest groups have been using informational lobbying as one of their main strategies during the reform process. Most interest groups have frequently used scientific information, already available to policymakers, in order to support their own framing of the issue.

  • 27. Pauly, Daniel
    et al.
    Belhabib, Dyhia
    Blomeyer, Roland
    Cheung, William W. W. L.
    Cisneros-Montemayor, Andres M.
    Copeland, Duncan
    Harper, Sarah
    Lam, Vicky W. Y.
    Mai, Yining
    Le Manach, Frederic
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mok, Ka Man
    van der Meer, Liesbeth
    Sanz, Antonio
    Shon, Soohyun
    Sumaila, U. Rashid
    Swartz, Wilf
    Watson, Reg
    Zhai, Yunlei
    Zeller, Dirk
    China's distant-water fisheries in the 21st century2014In: Fish and Fisheries, ISSN 1467-2960, E-ISSN 1467-2979, Vol. 15, no 3, p. 474-488Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We conservatively estimate the distant-water fleet catch of the People's Republic of China for 2000-2011, using a newly assembled database of reported occurrence of Chinese fishing vessels in various parts of the world and information on the annual catch by vessel type. Given the unreliability of official statistics, uncertainty of results was estimated through a regionally stratified Monte Carlo approach, which documents the presence and number of Chinese vessels in Exclusive Economic Zones and then multiplies these by the expected annual catch per vessel. We find that China, which over-reports its domestic catch, substantially under-reports the catch of its distant-water fleets. This catch, estimated at 4.6 million t year(-1) (95% central distribution, 3.4-6.1 million t year(-1)) from 2000 to 2011 (compared with an average of 368 000 t year(-1) reported by China to FAO), corresponds to an ex-vessel landed value of 8.93 billion year(-1) (95% central distribution, 6.3-12.3 billion). Chinese distant-water fleets extract the largest catch in African waters (3.1 million t year(-1), 95% central distribution, 2.0-4.4 million t), followed by Asia (1.0 million t year(-1), 0.56-1.5 million t), Oceania (198 000 t year(-1), 144 000-262 000 t), Central and South America (182 000 t year-1, 94 000299 000 t) and Antarctica (48 000 t year(-1), 8 000-129 000 t). The uncertainty of these estimates is relatively high, but several sources of inaccuracy could not be fully resolved given the constraints inherent in the underlying data and method, which also prevented us from distinguishing between legal and illegal catch.

  • 28.
    Philippe, M. Cury
    et al.
    Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.
    Boyd, Ian L.
    Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews.
    Bonhommeau, Sylvain
    Ifremer, UMR EME 212, Centre de Recherche Halieutique Méditerranéenne et Tropicale.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Global seabird response to forage fish depletion-one-third for the birds2011In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 334, no 6063, p. 1703-1706Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Determining the form of key predator-prey relationships is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. Using a comprehensive global database, we quantified the effect of fluctuations in food abundance on seabird breeding success. We identified a threshold in prey (fish and krill, termed “forage fish”) abundance below which seabirds experience consistently reduced and more variable productivity. This response was common to all seven ecosystems and 14 bird species examined within the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. The threshold approximated one-third of the maximum prey biomass observed in long-term studies. This provides an indicator of the minimal forage fish biomass needed to sustain seabird productivity over the long term.

  • 29.
    Schultz, Lisen
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden; Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 24, p. 7369-7374Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives.

  • 30.
    Stange, Kari
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Managing organizational change in an international scientific network: a study of ICES reform processes2011In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 36, no 3, p. 681-688Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Organizations involved in the governance of natural resources are challenged to adjust to the call for more holistic management approaches. This often necessitates organizational change. Here change processes in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) during the years 1998–2009 are investigated using semi-structured interviews combined with observations and review of documents. Several organizational reforms were implemented during the time period studied. The major drivers were the need to improve efficiency and a striving for better integration between different components within the organization. The reform processes were driven forward by individuals who navigated between opportunities and constrains embedded in the network structure of ICES. This required good leadership and communication skills. Broad consultations were important to ensure support within the ICES community. By increasing the understanding of the dynamics of change in organizations, which operate at the science–policy interface developments in desired directions can be facilitated.

  • 31.
    Troell, Max
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Naylor, Rosamond L.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Beveridge, Malcolm
    Tyedmers, Peter H.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Arrow, Kenneth J.
    Barrett, Scott
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Ehrlich, Paul R.
    Gren, Åsa
    Kautsky, Nils
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Levin, Simon A.
    Nyborg, Karine
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Polasky, Stephen
    Scheffer, Marten
    Walker, Brian H.
    Xepapadeas, Tasos
    de Zeeuw, Aart
    Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system?2014In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 111, no 37, p. 13257-13263Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change. Aquaculture can potentially enhance resilience through improved resource use efficiencies and increased diversification of farmed species, locales of production, and feeding strategies. However, aquaculture's reliance on terrestrial crops and wild fish for feeds, its dependence on freshwater and land for culture sites, and its broad array of environmental impacts diminishes its ability to add resilience. Feeds for livestock and farmed fish that are fed rely largely on the same crops, although the fraction destined for aquaculture is presently small (similar to 4%). As demand for high-value fed aquaculture products grows, competition for these crops will also rise, as will the demand for wild fish as feed inputs. Many of these crops and forage fish are also consumed directly by humans and provide essential nutrition for low-income households. Their rising use in aquafeeds has the potential to increase price levels and volatility, worsening food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations. Although the diversification of global food production systems that includes aquaculture offers promise for enhanced resilience, such promise will not be realized if government policies fail to provide adequate incentives for resource efficiency, equity, and environmental protection.

  • 32.
    Valman, Matilda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Adaptive governance of the Baltic Sea - lessons from elsewhere2015In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 440-465Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Governance of marine resources is increasingly characterized by integrated, cross sectoral and ecosystem based approaches. Such approaches require that existing governing bodies have an ability to adapt to ecosystem dynamics, while also providing transparent and legitimate outcomes. Here, we investigate how the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), the international governing body for the Baltic Sea, could improve its prospects for working with the ecosystem approach, drawing from the literature on adaptive governance. We construct an ideal type of adaptive governance to which we compare the way in which HELCOM is operating and relate these dynamics to two other international marine environment governance organizations, the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security (CTI-CFF) and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). We conclude that HELCOM deviates from an ideal type of adaptive governance in several ways but also that the other two case studies provide empirical support for potential ways in which HELCOM could improve its adaptive capacity. Key aspects where HELCOM could improve include increasing stakeholder participation - both in information sharing and decision making. Further, HELCOM need to develop evaluation mechanisms, secure compliance to improve adaptive capacity and organizational effectiveness, which entails the development of structures for conflict resolution. Finally, HELCOM need to increase communication and harmonization between different levels of authority.

  • 33. Varjupuro, R.
    et al.
    Heiskanen, A-S.
    Eriksson, A.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karnicki, Z.
    Kuzebski, E.
    Nekoro, Marmar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Viet Nguyen, T.
    Pitkänen, W.
    Radtke, K.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Challenges for the Holistic management of Eutrophication and Cod Fisheries in the Baltic Sea2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The current deliverable (D7.1.) aims to review the challenges of the established policies for providing a holistic ecosystem approach for management of the inter-linked environmental problems in the Baltic Sea Region.

    Based on the review of the issues that are of major concern, as well as the recent scientific knowledge of the ecological coupling of eutrophication, changes in the food web structure and decline of the cod stocks (e.g. Mällman et al. 2008, Österblom et al. 2010), we decided to focus our analysis on the two inter-linked problems of eutrophication and cod fisheries.

    In this report, we briefly describe the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea as well as the nature of these two environmental issues. We provide an overview of major environmental policies that are governing these two inter-linked problems. We also discuss the current challenges in the implementation of these established policies in the context of requirements for holistic ecosystem based management of the Baltic Sea.

  • 34. Villasante, Sebastian
    et al.
    Morato, Telmo
    Rodriguez-Gonzalez, David
    Antelo, Manel
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watling, Les
    Nouvian, Claire
    Gianni, Matthew
    Macho, Gonzalo
    Sustainability of deep-sea fish species under the European Union Common Fisheries Policy2012In: Ocean and Coastal Management, ISSN 0964-5691, E-ISSN 1873-524X, Vol. 70, p. 31-37Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The historical expansion of fishing industries into the deep sea has been described at the global level, but corresponding patterns are less well known at other geographical scales. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has stated that most deep-sea species exploited by European fishing industries are harvested outside safe biological limits. As a result, the European Union commenced regulating exploitation of deep-sea stocks with total allowable catches (TACs). These regulations have been operational since 2002, but no detailed overview of their effectiveness is hitherto available. The objectives of this paper are: 1) to analyse changes in mean depth of fishing of the EU fleet before (1950-1982) and after (1983-2006) the adoption of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), 2) to analyse the degree to which the European Council follows scientific advice on sustainable catches provided by ICES and 3) to investigate the degree to which the fishing industry complies with agreed catch limits. Our results indicate that the EU fleet has experienced a bathymetric expansion by an average of 78 m depth for the 1950-2006 period, or almost twice the value (42 m) previously reported for the global fleet. This pattern of expansion towards deep-sea fishing grounds has not changed under the CFP. Additionally, the paper demonstrates that the mean longevity of species caught by the EU fleet increased with depth, from about 13 years for shallow water species to about 25 years for intermediate species and about 60 years for deep-sea species. Thus, fishing deeper means fishing for increasingly long-lived and vulnerable species. This study also shows that approved TACs for deep-sea fish stocks did not follow scientific advice. Scientifically proposed TAC levels were not respected in about 60% of the cases investigated and these approved TACs were not complied. Member States exceeded agreed quotas in about 50% of the cases during the 2002-2011 period. Reported catches were on average 3.5 times greater than approved for deep-sea species, but in some cases catches even 10-28 times higher than agreed. The identified pattern that Member States fail to respect approved quotas indicate a lack of incentives to comply, likely as a consequence of limited enforcement and sanctioning mechanisms. Ensuring long-term sustainability of deep-sea stocks is urgently needed but requires dramatic change to the existing management system.

  • 35. Villasante, Sebastián
    et al.
    Rodríguez, David
    Antelo, Manel
    Quaas, Martin
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The Global Seafood Market Performance Index: a theoretical proposal and potential empirical applications2012In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 36, no 1, p. 142-152Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to create the Global Seafood Market Performance Index (GSMPI) in order to compare fisheries-related impacts of different countries across spatial and temporal scales. The article presents the first effort to investigate the trade-offs among marine ecosystems, seafood markets, poverty alleviation, food security and governance at worldwide level by creating the GSMPI. The GSMPI will provide relevant information on environmental, governance, socioeconomic, food security, corruption, seafood market, and corporate social responsibility issues for individual decision-makers and scientists, national governments, and stakeholders as well as international fishing and aquaculture industries.

  • 36.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Catching Up on Fisheries Crime2014In: Conservation Biology, ISSN 0888-8892, E-ISSN 1523-1739, Vol. 28, no 3, p. 877-879Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 37.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Havens superhjältar2011In: Framtider, no 3, p. 22-25Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Världens hav och fiskbestånd befinner sig i ett utsatt läge. Men flera år av larmrapporter väcker inte bara oro, utan skapar även en förändringsvilja. Även om problemen kan verka oöverstigliga finns en enorm potential att förändra situationen. Några vardagliga superhjältar – en forskare, en yrkesfiskare och en politiker – visar oss hur enskilda människor faktiskt kan visa vägen till ett mer hållbart fiske.

  • 38.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Reimagining ocean governance using the keystone species concept2017In: Nature Ecology and Evolution, ISSN 2397-334X, Vol. 1, no 5, article id 0133Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Global Cooperation among Diverse Organizations to Reduce Illegal Fishing in the Southern Ocean2012In: Conservation Biology, ISSN 0888-8892, E-ISSN 1523-1739, Vol. 26, no 4, p. 638-648Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is prevalent globally and has detrimental effects on commercial fish stocks and nontarget species. Effective monitoring and enforcement aimed at reducing the level of IUU fishing in extensive, remote ocean fisheries requires international collaboration. Changes in trade and vessel activities further complicate enforcement. We used a web-based survey of governmental and nongovernmental organizations engaged in reducing IUU fishing in the Southern Ocean to collect information on interorganizational collaborations. We used social-network analyses to examine the nature of collaborations among the identified 117 organizations engaged in reducing IUU fishing. International collaboration improved the ability to control and manage harvest of commercially important toothfish (Dissostichus spp.) stocks and reduced bycatch of albatrosses (Diomedeidae) and petrels (Procellariidae) in longlines of IUU fishing vessels. The diverse group of surveyed organizations cooperated frequently, thereby making a wide range of resources available for improved detection of suspected IUU vessels and trade flows, cooperation aimed at prosecuting suspected offenders or developing new policy measures. Our results suggest the importance of a central agency for coordination and for maintaining commonly agreed-upon protocols for communication that facilities collaboration. Despite their differences, the surveyed organizations have developed common perceptions about key problems associated with IUU fishing. This has likely contributed to a sustained willingness to invest in collaborations. Our results show that successful international environmental governance can be accomplished through interorganizational collaborations. Such cooperation requires trust, continuous funding, and incentives for actors to participate.

  • 40.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Press, Anthony J.
    Sumaila, U. Rashid
    The High Seas and IUU (Illegal, Unregulated, Unreported) Fishing2015In: Routledge Handbook of Ocean Resources and Management / [ed] Hance D. Smith, Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero, Tundi S. Agardy, Abingdon: Routledge, 2015, p. 232-240Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 41.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Casini, Michele
    Olsson, Olof
    Bignert, Anders
    Fish, seabirds and trophic cascades in the Baltic Sea2006In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 323, p. 233-238Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

     

     

     

    In the relatively simple Baltic Sea ecosystem, zooplankton-feeding sprat

     

     

    Sprattus sprattus

    is a major food source for breeding seabirds and piscivorous fish, and an important resource for

    commercial fisheries. Large-scale and long-term ecosystem changes resulting mainly from over fishing

    and recruitment failure of cod

     

     

    Gadus morhua

    , which is the main fish predator of sprat, have

    affected natural-history patterns in a piscivorous seabird, the common guillemot

     

     

    Uria aalge

    , in a complex

    way. As the sprat stock increased, leading to lower energy content of fish, common guillemot

    chick body mass at fledging decreased. However, chick fledging body mass recovered in recent years

    as the sprat stock diminished, which brought about corresponding increases in sprat weight-at-age

    and energy content. The cod and sprat fishery affect the common guillemots in the Baltic Sea, but the

    effects differ depending on the management strategy.

  • 42.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Constable, Andrew
    Fukumi, Sayaka
    Illegal fishing and the organized crime analogy2011In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 26, no 6, p. 261-262Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 43.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice I.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Marine Ecosystem Science on an Intertwined Planet2017In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 54-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine ecosystem science has developed since the 1940s, when humans obtained the ability to spend substantial time underneath the surface of the ocean. Since then, and drawing on several decades of scientific advances, a number of exciting research frontiers have emerged. We find: Understanding interacting drivers of change, Identifying thresholds in ecosystems, and Investigating social-ecological dynamics to represent particularly interesting frontiers, which we speculate will soon emerge as new mainstreams in marine ecosystem science. However, increasing human impacts on ecosystems everywhere and a new level of global connectivity are shifting the context for studying, understanding, and managing marine ecosystems. As a consequence, we argue that ecosystem scientists today also need to address a number of critical challenges and devote new energy and expertise to Modeling the Anthropocene, Operationalizing resilience, and Understanding social-ecological dynamics across scales. This new deep dive into unknown waters requires a number of strategies to be successful. We suggest that marine ecosystem scientists need to actively: Prepare for the unexpected, cross boundaries, and understand our cognitive limitations to further develop the exciting field of marine ecosystem science.

  • 44.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics.
    Emergence of Global Adaptive Governance for Stewardship of Regional Marine Resources2013In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 4-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Overfishing has historically caused widespread stock collapses in the Southern Ocean. Until recently, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing threatened to result in the collapse of some of the few remaining valuable fish stocks in the region and vulnerable seabird populations. Currently, this unsustainable fishing has been reduced to less than 10% of former levels. We describe and analyze the emergence of the social-ecological governance system that made it possible to curb the fisheries crisis. For this purpose, we investigated the interplay between actors, social networks, organizations, and institutions in relation to environmental outcomes. We drew on a diversity of methods, including qualitative interviews, quantitative social network and survey data, and literature reviews. We found that the crisis triggered action of an informal group of actors over time, which led to a new organization (ISOFISH) that connected two independent networks (nongovermental organizations and the fishing industry), and later (COLTO) linked to an international body and convention (CCAMLR). The emergence of the global adaptive governance systems for stewardship of a regional marine resource took place over a 15-year period. We describe in detail the emergence process and illustrate the usefulness of analyzing four features of governance and understanding social-ecological processes, thereby describing structures and functions, and their link to tangible environmental outcomes.

  • 45.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gardmark, A.
    Bergstrom, L.
    Muller-Karulis, B.
    Folke, C.
    Lindegren, M.
    Casini, M.
    Olsson, P.
    Diekmann, R.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Humborg, Cristoph
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moellmann, C.
    Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?2010In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 34, no 6, p. 1290-1299Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social-ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem can be stimulated. The existing multi-level governance institutions are specifically set up for dealing with individual sectors, but do not adequately support an operational application of the ecosystem approach. The review of ecosystem services in relation to regime shifts and resilience of the Baltic Sea sub-basins, and their driving forces, points to a number of challenges. There is however a movement towards a new governance regime. Bottom-up pilot initiatives can lead to a diffusion of innovation within the existing governance framework. Top-down, enabling EU legislation, can help stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub-basin scales could facilitate this process.

  • 46.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Nevonen, Nea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Veem, Katarina
    Tinkering with a tanker-slow evolution of a Swedish ecosystem approach2017In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 74, no 1, p. 443-452Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ecosystem approach is a salient policy paradigm originating from a scientific understanding of the reality of complex ecosystem dynamics. In this article, we investigate how Swedish national marine policies and practice between 2002 and 2015 have changed towards an ecosystem approach. Government documents, the scientific literature, institutional changes, changes in legislation, pilot projects, and changes in science and public opinion were reviewed and combined with information from expert interviews. We found that changes in policy and practice have slowly stimulated the development of an ecosystem approach, but that limited political leadership, challenges of coordination, different agency cultures, and limited learning appears to be key barriers for further and more substantial change. We compare and contrast the Swedish national process of change with other documented experiences of implementing an ecosystem approach and find that several countries struggle with similar challenges. Substantial work still remains in Sweden and we provide suggestions for how to stimulate further and more substantial change at the national level.

  • 47.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Transnational Corporations as 'Keystone Actors' in Marine Ecosystems2015In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 10, no 5, article id e0127533Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Keystone species have a disproportionate influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Here we analyze whether a keystone-like pattern can be observed in the relationship between transnational corporations and marine ecosystems globally. We show how thirteen corporations control 11-16% of the global marine catch (9-13 million tons) and 19-40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play important roles in their respective ecosystem. They dominate all segments of seafood production, operate through an extensive global network of subsidiaries and are profoundly involved in fisheries and aquaculture decision-making. Based on our findings, we define these companies as keystone actors of the Anthropocene. The phenomenon of keystone actors represents an increasingly important feature of the human-dominated world. Sustainable leadership by keystone actors could result in cascading effects throughout the entire seafood industry and enable a critical transition towards improved management of marine living resources and ecosystems.

  • 48.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Emergence of a global science-business initiative for ocean stewardship2017In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 114, no 34, p. 9038-9043Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ocean represents a fundamental source of micronutrients and protein for a growing world population. Seafood is a highly traded and sought after commodity on international markets, and is critically dependent on healthy marine ecosystems. A global trend of wild stocks being overfished and in decline, as well as multiple sustainability challenges associated with a rapid growth of aquaculture, represent key concerns in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Existing efforts aimed to improve the sustainability of seafood production have generated important progress, primarily at the local and national levels, but have yet to effectively address the global challenges associated with the ocean. This study highlights the importance of transnational corporations in enabling transformative change, and thereby contributes to advancing the limited understanding of large-scale private actors within the sustainability science literature. We describe how we engaged with large seafood producers to coproduce a global science-business initiative for ocean stewardship. We suggest that this initiative is improving the prospects for transformative change by providing novel links between science and business, between wild-capture fisheries and aquaculture, and across geographical space. We argue that scientists can play an important role in facilitating change by connecting knowledge to action among global actors, while recognizing risks associated with such engagement. The methods developed through this case study contribute to identifying key competences in sustainability science and hold promises for other sectors as well.

  • 49.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Sarmiento, Jorge L.
    Christensen, Villy
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems2013In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, p. 735-744Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

  • 50.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Westley, Frances R.
    van Esso, Miguel L.
    Miller, John
    Bascompte, Jordi
    A message from magic to science: seeing how the brain can be tricked may strengthen our thinking2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 4, article id 16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scientific discoveries rely on creative thinking, and several authors have explored similarities in and differences between creativity in the sciences and that in the arts. Here we explore possible ways in which science can learn from the arts, focusing specifically on experiences derived from the art of magic and on the limitations of human cognition. Generations of stage magicians or illusionists have made sophisticated use of the weaknesses in human systems of perception and interpretation. We highlight three important principles of magic tricks, including: (1) the audience see what it expects, (2) it is blind to all but the focus of attention, and (3) ideas spring predictably from a primed mind. These principles highlight a number of important tendencies, which we argue are shortcomings in the ability of scientists to perceive the world, and which scientists need to be aware of. Consciously addressing these shortcomings may help scientists improve their creativity, and will strengthen their capacity to address complex and global challenges.

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