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  • 1.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Oslo, Norway.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Classifying fishers' behaviour. An invitation to fishing styles2016In: Fish and Fisheries, ISSN 1467-2960, E-ISSN 1467-2979, Vol. 17, no 1, p. 78-100Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The study and classification of fishers’ behaviour remains a much debated topic. There is a tension between detailed empirical studies, which highlight the variety and diversity of fisheries, and the parsimony and generalization required to satisfy science and policy demands. This study contributes to this debate. The first sec- tion reviews quantitative methods currently used for classifying fishing practices. The review uncovers significant weaknesses in quantitative classification methods, which, we argue, can be improved through the complementary use of qualitative methods. To this purpose, we introduce the concept of ‘fishing style’, which integrates quantitative classification methods with qualitative analysis. We explain the scientific premises of the fishing-style concept, outline a general methodological framework and present a fishing-style analysis of Swedish Baltic Sea fisheries. Based on these results, we conclude that it is possible to classify fishing practices in a rel- atively uniform and limited number of styles that can highlight the rich, empirical diversity of fishers’ behaviour. We therefore propose that fishing-style analysis, based on an integration of quantitative and qualitative methods, can be an impor- tant step towards more effective and sustainable fisheries management.

  • 2.
    Crona, Beatrice I.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of East Anglia, UK.
    Swartz, Wilf
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nyström, Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Thyresson, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Masked, diluted and drowned out: how global seafood trade weakens signals from marine ecosystems2016In: Fish and Fisheries, ISSN 1467-2960, E-ISSN 1467-2979, Vol. 17, no 4, p. 1175-1182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nearly 40% of seafood is traded internationally and an even bigger proportion is affected by international trade, yet scholarship on marine fisheries has focused on global trends in stocks and catches, or on dynamics of individual fisheries, with limited attention to the link between individual fisheries, global trade and distant consumers. This paper examines the usefulness of fish price as a feedback signal to consumers about the state of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We suggest that the current nature of fisheries systems and global markets prevent transmission of such price signals from source fisheries to consumers. We propose several mechanisms that combine to weaken price signals, and present one example - the North Sea cod - to show how these mechanisms can be tested. The lack of a reliable price feedback to consumers represents a challenge for sustainable fisheries governance. We therefore propose three complimentary approaches to address the missing feedback: (i) strengthening information flow through improved traceability and visibility of individual fishers to consumers, (ii) capitalizing on the changing seafood trade structures and (iii) bypassing and complementing market mechanisms by directly targeting citizens and political actors regarding marine environmental issues through publicity and information campaigns. These strategies each havelimitations and thus need to be pursued together to address the challenge of sustainability in global marine fisheries.

  • 3. Cross, Adam D. P.
    et al.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    McGill, Rona A. R.
    Furness, Robert W.
    Isotopic analysis of island House Martins Delichon urbica indicates marine provenance of nutrients2014In: Ibis, ISSN 0019-1019, E-ISSN 1474-919X, Vol. 156, no 3, p. 676-681Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The presence of one of the largest colonies of House Martins in Europe on the small island of Stora Karlso, Sweden, led us to investigate the source of their food by analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Carbon isotopic values of House Martin nestlings were the same as those of Common Guillemot Uria aalge nestlings fed on marine fish, but differed from local Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis nestlings fed on woodland insects. We infer that these House Martins fed their chicks almost exclusively on insects that had used nutrients derived from seabirds, indicating a dependence on the presence of a large seabird colony. We suggest by extension that some populations of island passerines of high conservation importance may also be dependent on nutrient subsidies from seabird colonies.

  • 4.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Giusti, Matteo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Goodness, Julie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hamann, Maike
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Masterson, Vanessa A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Meacham, Megan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ospina, Daniel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schill, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Sinare, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The undisciplinary journey: early-career perspectives in sustainability science2018In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 13, no 1, p. 191-204Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The establishment of interdisciplinary Master’s and PhD programs in sustainability science is opening up an exciting arena filled with opportunities for early-career scholars to address pressing sustainability challenges. However, embarking upon an interdisciplinary endeavor as an early-career scholar poses a unique set of challenges: to develop an individual scientific identity and a strong and specific methodological skill-set, while at the same time gaining the ability to understand and communicate between different epistemologies. Here, we explore the challenges and opportunities that emerge from a new kind of interdisciplinary journey, which we describe as ‘undisciplinary.’ Undisciplinary describes (1) the space or condition of early-career researchers with early interdisciplinary backgrounds, (2) the process of the journey, and (3) the orientation which aids scholars to address the complex nature of today’s sustainability challenges. The undisciplinary journey is an iterative and reflexive process of balancing methodological groundedness and epistemological agility to engage in rigorous sustainability science. The paper draws upon insights from a collective journey of broad discussion, reflection, and learning, including a survey on educational backgrounds of different generations of sustainability scholars, participatory forum theater, and a panel discussion at the Resilience 2014 conference (Montpellier, France). Based on the results from this diversity of methods, we suggest that there is now a new and distinct generation of sustainability scholars that start their careers with interdisciplinary training, as opposed to only engaging in interdisciplinary research once strong disciplinary foundations have been built. We further identify methodological groundedness and epistemological agility as guiding competencies to become capable sustainability scientists and discuss the implications of an undisciplinary journey in the current institutional context of universities and research centers. In this paper, we propose a simple framework to help early-career sustainability scholars and well-established scientists successfully navigate what can sometimes be an uncomfortable space in education and research, with the ultimate aim of producing and engaging in rigorous and impactful sustainability science.

  • 5.
    Hentati Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Oslo, Norway.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Management Forcing Increased Specialization in a Fishery System2015In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 45-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fisheries systems are shaped by dynamic social-ecological interactions that determine their capacity to provide ecosystem services. Human adaptation is often considered a key uncertainty, and there are few quantitative empirical analyses that address long-term social and ecological change in the analyses of fisheries systems. The aim of this study was twofold: (i) to understand how different drivers influenced the adaptations by fishers, and (ii) to evaluate different consequences of such adaptations, especially with regard to diversity of social and ecological links. We used the Baltic Sea as a case study, a system with different fisheries, largely managed with a single-stock advice, in a top-down basis. The study period 1995-2009 was characterized by profound inter-annual fluctuations in fish stock status and prices, and introduction of new types of management measures. We used multivariate statistical methods to define longitudinal changes in fishing tactics and strategies based on logbook data. Our results indicate that changes in fishing strategies have mainly been driven by regulations, and there were only weak linkages between fishing activities, fish stocks, and price fluctuations. We found contrasting trends between large- and small-scale fishers, where large-scale fishers became more specialized and inflexible, whereas small-scale fishers diversified over time. We conclude that management has had a dominating role in shaping fishing patterns, leading to a reduction of important qualities related to the resilience in this social-ecological system.

  • 6.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    SEA CHANGE: Social-ecological co-evolution in Baltic Sea fisheries2015Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable management of natural resources requires an in-depth understanding of the interplay between social and ecological change. Linked social-ecological systems (SES) have been described as complex adaptive systems (CAS), which mean that they are irreducible, exhibit nonlinear dynamics, have interactions across scales and are uncertain and unpredictable. These propositions have however rarely been tested empirically, in part due to a lack of methodological approaches and suitable datasets. In this thesis, I address this methodological and empirical gap in a study of long-term change of Baltic Sea fisheries. In Paper I, we develop the concept of fishing style through integrating multivariate statistical analysis and in-depth interviews. We thereby identify an intermediate level of detail for analyzing social-ecological dynamics, embracing the case specific and context dependent approaches of the social sciences with the generalizable and quantifiable approaches from the natural sciences. In Paper II we ask: How has the Baltic Sea fishery been regulated over time, and can we identify a way to quantify regulations in order to be able to analyze their effects? We analyze all regulatory changes in Sweden since 1995 with a new methodology and conclude that there is a clear trend towards increased micro-management. In Paper III, we use the fishing styles developed in Paper I and examine how they have changed over time. We relate these changes to the dynamics of regulation (Paper II), as well as to the dynamics of fish stocks and prices. We conclude that regulation has been the main driving force for observed changes, but also that regulation has prompted significant specialization and decline in flexibility for fishers over time. These changes are unintended consequences and may represent a looming risk for the long-term sustainability of this social-ecological system. Paper IV zooms in on a particular fishery, the pelagic trawl fishery for sprat Sprattus sprattus and Atlantic herring Clupea harengus, mainly targeted for the production of fishmeal and fish oil. Suspicions of non-compliance in this fishery motivated us to apply a statistical approach where we used socioeconomic data to re-estimate the historical catches in this fishery (a novel approach to catch-reconstruction estimates). We found that catches had been significantly underreported over several years, with consequences for the quality of stock assessments and management. The study underlines the importance of understanding linked social, economic and ecological dynamics for sustainable outcomes. Finally, Paper V takes a longer historical look at the Baltic Sea fishery, using regionally disaggregated data from 1914-2009 (96 years), which were analyzed with a novel type of nonlinear statistical time-series methods (Empirical Dynamical Modeling). Our analysis explicitly recognized the potential nonlinear dynamics of SES and showed high predictability across regions of catches and prices of cod Gadus morhua and herring. The signal was generally nonlinear and predictability decreased strongly with time, suggesting that the dynamics of this SES are ever-changing. To our knowledge, this is the first long-term analysis of a SES using empirical data and methods developed from the CAS field of research. The main contributions of this thesis are the integrated analysis of social and ecological data, the development of novel methods for understanding SES dynamics, insights on the ever-changing nature of CAS and the quantitative analysis of management outcomes. Future work should focus on assessing the generality of these findings across a broad range of SES and evaluate alternative governance approaches given the complexity and uncertainty of SES suggested by this thesis.

  • 7.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Social-ecological dynamics in a highly regulated fisheries system - Sources of resilience and limits to command-and-control management2013Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable governance of natural resources is challenged by the poor understanding of complex human-nature couplings. Major advancements in resilience theory, acknowledging the importance of social-ecological linkages and the self-organizing capacity of social-ecological systems, provides a new perspective on research in sustainability science. Yet, limitations in methods and data for integrated studies of social-ecological systems limit progress in science and management. This PhD project aims to generate and test specific hypotheses building on social-ecological systems theory using a variety of methods and a long-term, multidimensional empirical dataset of the Baltic Sea social-ecological fisheries system.

    In paper 1, we ask which factors have impacted change in fisheries patterns in the Baltic Sea over a 15 year period, 1995-2009. We conclude that the responses of fishers are largely driven by top-down management regulations, which has favoured increasing scale of operations and specialization, and that the capacity of fishers to engage in ecosystem stewardship is low. Resilience could be enhanced through an increased focus on governance actions that can stimulate the self-organising capacity of the system

    Paper 2 focuses on one particular fishery, whose long-term dynamics have been strongly driven by an ecological regime-shift in the Baltic Sea. High potential profits and weak control has raised suspicions of widespread misreporting in this fishery. By developing a new method for reconstructing catches, we suggest that under-reporting has been significant, and likely driven by high economic incentives created by ill-designed policy. This misreporting risks contributing to a negative feed-back that substantially alters   the management cycle, and thereby constitutes a part of a social-ecological trap in this fishery.

    The research within this project so far indicates that there are good prospects for using the Baltic Sea as case for integrated social-ecological studies, aiming at informing resilience theory. Some ideas on future direction of the research are outlined. 

  • 8.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Deyle, E.
    Ye, H.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Sugihara, G.
    Strong nonlinearities in an ever-changing social-ecological system: A data-driven empirical study of the historical development of the Baltic SeaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding linked social and ecological dynamics is a pre-requisite for sustainable use of natural resources. Integrated quantitative studies of such linked systems have however been scarce due to lack of suitable methods and data. In this paper, we apply state-of-the-art nonlinear time series methods (EDM) to nine decades of spatially explicit fisheries data to investigate their empirical dynamics. We found that fish prices, and to a less extent fish catches, were predictable beyond linear change or temporal correlations, and highly nonlinear. Moreover, we found that the system appeared to be drifting, indicating gradual changes in internal feedback strength and thus limiting predictability over long time periods. Our results indicate that predictability in social-ecological systems may be relatively modest, which may call for an adaptive, risk-averse approach to ecosystem management. 

  • 9.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Can fisheries management be quantified?2014In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 48, p. 18-20Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Policy efforts to reduce fisheries impact have often created micro-management. Detailed regulations are restricting the fishing industry, and are also acknowledged to limit the progress towards sustainable management. Industry representatives, political bodies and scientists have therefore argued for more simplicity and transparency. Here, fisheries management is quantified in terms of trends in regulations for different Swedish fisheries in the Baltic Sea during the period 1995–2009. The results suggest that many fisheries are suffering from increased micro-management, but interestingly some fisheries showing a different trend.

  • 10.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjelm, J.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Does fisheries management incentivize non-compliance? Estimated misreporting in the Swedish Baltic Sea pelagic fishery based on commercial fishing effort2014In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 71, no 7, p. 1846-1853Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fisheries management agencies and fishing industry representatives depend on reliable estimates of fish biomass and mortality for the determin- ation of sustainable catch levels. Lack of data or misreporting may be reasons for unreliable stock assessment, which, in turn, may result in advice that does not reflect the availability of fisheries resources. It has been suggested that the mixed pelagic trawl fisheries in the Baltic represent a case of biased estimates of fish biomass and mortality resulting from misreporting. Here, we estimate the degree of misreporting in the Swedish pelagic fishery (1996 – 2009) and propose an approach for reconstructing historical catches based on commercial effort data. The analysis suggests that total catches have been underestimated during part of our study period and that systematic misreporting of species composition has taken place over the whole study period. The analysis also suggests that there is overcapacity in the fishery and that such economic incentive could explain the general patterns of misreporting. Applying our method for fisheries with suspected misreporting could significantly improve assessment accuracy, reduce uncertainty and thereby allow for a better link between catches and resource levels. 

  • 11.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kadin, Martina
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jansson, Åke
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The Karlsö Murre Lab methodology can stimulate innovative seabird research2012In: Marine Ornithology, ISSN 1018-3337, E-ISSN 2074-1235, Vol. 40, p. 11-16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies of seabirds have contributed substantially to theoretical and applied ecology, but practical limitations in the field and lack of knowledge of the life history of studied birds often constitute significant hurdles to progress in research. In the middle of the largest seabird colony in the Baltic Sea, on the island of Stora Karlsö, we have built an artificial breeding site for Common Murres Uria aalge. The Karlsö Murre Lab enables high-resolution studies with minimal disturbance of the breeding birds. It became operational, with the first recruitment of breeding murres, in 2009. Building materials and location were chosen to minimize environmental impact. The lab was constructed to allow future outfitting with a range of high-technology devices. Since most of the fledged chicks in the subcolony have been ringed over the last 10 years, this will enable recruitment and studies using advanced technology of birds with known life history. Hence, we will be able to perform seabird studies with a resolution that is impossible in a strictly natural environment. Better knowledge of links between seabirds and their environment facilitates the use of seabirds as indicators, which in turn can improve marine ecosystem-based management. 

  • 12.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Willerström Ehrning, Ebba
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Common Guillemot Uria aalge parents adjust provisioning rates to compensate for low food quality2016In: Ibis, ISSN 0019-1019, E-ISSN 1474-919X, Vol. 158, no 1, p. 167-178Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The quantity and quality of food available within the foraging area set important constraints for chick-rearing birds, but responses to low quality are not well understood. This study explored the potential for parent birds to adjust quantity (feeding rate) and quality (energy content) in chick provisioning, by studying Common Guillemots Uria aalge on Stora Karlso, Baltic Sea, predominantly utilizing Sprat Sprattus sprattus, during conditions of high food quantity but reduced food quality. Quality is central to reproductive success in this single-prey loader. From the chick's perspective, provisioning rates should be increased to compensate for low food quality and to fulfil its growing needs with increasing age. However, the high energy cost of flying in Guillemots makes it important for parent birds to minimize commutes to feeding areas. Provisioning parameters were recorded during three dawn-to-dusk watches each breeding season from 2005 to 2013, when clupeids, presumably Sprat, constituted 98% of chick diet. Generalized additive mixed models showed that both feeding rate and size of clupeids (a proxy for energy content) varied between years and changed non-linearly with chick age, but that there was no change within breeding seasons. Chick age and year explained 36% of the variation in feeding rate but only 2% of the variation in the size of clupeids in chick diets. We conclude that parent birds tried to adjust both feeding rate and prey size, but were less successful with the latter. A strong negative correlation was found between annual feeding rates and size of clupeids, evaluated as the differences relative to the baseline year, and adjusted for the effects of chick age. Although the differences between years were small, the relationship indicates a compensation mechanism that does not seem to impact adult survival, and by which increased feeding rates can partly counteract reduced chick energy intake when food quality is low.

  • 13.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Bignert, Anders
    Swedish Museum of Natural History.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Trends, changes and uncertainties in bycatch of common murres in the Baltic SeaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Kadin, Martina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Contrasting effects of food quality and quantity on a marine top predator2012In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 444, p. 239-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Overfishing of predatory fish has contributed to an increase in forage-fish stocks. At the same time, a rising demand for forage fish to supply fishmeal markets, in combination with ­climate change, has put strong pressure on these stocks, and this, in turn, has had an impact on marine top predators. We examined how inter-annual variation in food quality (sprat Sprattus sprattus weight-at-age) and quantity (sprat abundance) influenced Baltic Sea common murres Uria aalge during chick-rearing. Fledging success, i.e. survival from hatching to fledging, showed a positive relationship with food quality, but we found no effect of food quantity. We found no relationship between food quality and parental behaviour or chick feeding parameters, but a negative relationship between food quantity and trip duration. Our data indicate that there was room for parental birds to increase their effort to compensate for reduced food quality, but we found no signs of such compensation. We analysed different types of fish and seabird life-history data to separate effects of food quantity and quality on a top predator. Understanding such effects can contribute to clarifying causes and consequences for observed changes in life-history parameters and population dynamics of top predators.

  • 15.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Quaas, Martin F.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 35, p. 11120-11125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  • 16.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    How patterns of interactions between and among fishing strategies and targeted fish species affect adaptive capacity: an integrated analysis of the Baltic Sea fishery 1996-2009Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Nevonen, Nea
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Veem, Katarina
    Tinkering with a tanker-slow evolution of a Swedish ecosystem approach2017In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 74, no 1, p. 443-452Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ecosystem approach is a salient policy paradigm originating from a scientific understanding of the reality of complex ecosystem dynamics. In this article, we investigate how Swedish national marine policies and practice between 2002 and 2015 have changed towards an ecosystem approach. Government documents, the scientific literature, institutional changes, changes in legislation, pilot projects, and changes in science and public opinion were reviewed and combined with information from expert interviews. We found that changes in policy and practice have slowly stimulated the development of an ecosystem approach, but that limited political leadership, challenges of coordination, different agency cultures, and limited learning appears to be key barriers for further and more substantial change. We compare and contrast the Swedish national process of change with other documented experiences of implementing an ecosystem approach and find that several countries struggle with similar challenges. Substantial work still remains in Sweden and we provide suggestions for how to stimulate further and more substantial change at the national level.

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