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  • 1. Anderies, J. M.
    et al.
    Carpenter, S. R.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 044048-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a 'safe operating space' for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

  • 2. Andersson, Jafet C. M.
    et al.
    Zehnder, Alexander J. B.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Yang, Hong
    Potential impacts of water harvesting and ecological sanitation on crop yield, evaporation and river flow regimes in the Thukela River basin, South Africa2011In: Agricultural Water Management, ISSN 0378-3774, E-ISSN 1873-2283, Vol. 98, no 7, p. 1113-1124Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we explore the potential impacts of two strategies, namely in situ water harvesting (in situ WH) and fertilisation with stored human urine (Ecosan), to increase the water and nutrient availability in rain-fed smallholder agriculture in South Africa's Thukela River basin (29,000 km(2)). We use the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate potential impacts on smallholder maize yields, river flow regimes, plant transpiration, and soil and canopy evaporation during 1997-2006. Based on the results, the impacts on maize yields are likely to be small with in situ WH (median change: 0%) but significant with Ecosan (median increase: 30%). The primary causes for these effects are high nitrogen stress on crop growth, and low or untimed soil moisture enhancement with in situ WH. However, the impacts vary significantly in time and space, occasionally resulting in yield increases of up to 40% with in situ WH. Soil fertility improvements primarily increase yield magnitudes, whereas soil moisture enhancements reduce spatial yield variability. Ecosan significantly improves the productivity of the evaporative fluxes by increasing transpiration (median: 2.8%, 4.7 mm season(-1)) and reducing soil and canopy evaporation (median: -1.7%, -4.5 mm season(-1)). In situ WH does not generally affect the river flow regimes. Occasionally, significant regime changes occur due to enhanced lateral and shallow aquifer return flows. This leads to higher risks of flooding in some areas, but also to enhanced low flows, which help sustain aquatic ecosystems in the basin.

  • 3. Azar, Christian
    et al.
    Finnveden, Göran
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Johansson-Stenman, Olof
    Ledin, Anna
    Munthe, John
    Nilsson, Annika E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nordin, Annika
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Smith, Henrik
    Sörlin, Sverker
    Vahter, Marie
    Inrätta ett miljöpolitiskt råd direkt under statsministern2014In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 4. Azar, Christian
    et al.
    Finnveden, Göran
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Johansson-Stenman, Olof
    Nilsson, Annika E.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Miljöpolitikens spelplan: rapport från Miljöforskningsberedningen2014Book (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Barron, Jennie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Water pressure and increases in food & bioenergy demand implications of economic growth and options for decoupling2007In: Scenarios on economic growth and resource demand: background report to the Swedish Environmental Advisory Council memorandum 2007:1, Swedish Environmental Advisory Council, Stockholm , 2007, p. 55-151Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 6.
    Barron, Jennie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Fox, P
    Risk analysis and economic viability of water harvesting for supplemental irrigation in the Semi-arids2005In: Agricultural Systems, ISSN 0308-521X, E-ISSN 1873-2267, Vol. 83, no 3, p. 231-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Food insecurity affects a large portion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To meet future food requirements current rainfed farming systems need to upgrade yield output. One way is to improve water and fertiliser management in crop production. But adaptation among farmers will depend on perceived risk reduction of harvest failure as well as economic benefit for the household. Here, we present risk analysis and economical benefit estimates of a water harvesting (WH) system for supplemental irrigation (SI). Focus of the analysis is on reducing investment risk to improve self-sufficiency in staple food production. The analysis is based on data from two on-farm experimental sites with SI for cereals in currently practised smallholder farming system in semi-arid Burkina Faso and Kenya, respectively. The WH system enables for both SI of staple crop (sorghum and maize) and a fully irrigated off-season cash crop (tomatoes). Different investment scenarios are presented in a matrix of four reservoir sealants combined with three labour opportunity costs. It is shown that the WH system is labour intensive but risk-reducing investment at the two locations. The current cultivation practices do not attain food self-sufficiency in farm households. WH with SI resulted in a net profit of 151–626 USD year−1 ha−1 for the Burkina case and 109–477 USD year−1 ha−1 for the Kenya case depending on labour opportunity cost, compared to −83 to 15 USD year−1 ha−1 for the Burkina case and 40–130 USD year−1 ha−1 for the Kenyan case for current farming practices. Opportunity cost represents 0–66% of the investment cost in an SI system depending on type of sealant. The most economical strategy under local labour conditions was obtained using thin plastic sheeting as reservoir sealant. This resulted in a net profit of 390 and 73 USD year−1 ha−1 for the Burkina Faso and Kenyan respective site after household consumption was deducted. The analysis suggests a strong mutual dependence between investment in WH for SI and input of fertiliser. The WH system is only economically viable if combined with improved soil fertility management, but the investment in fertiliser inputs may only be viable in the long term when combined with SI.

  • 7. Bennett, Elena
    et al.
    Carpenter, S.R.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Toward a more resilient agriculture2014In: Solutions : For a Sustainable & Desirable Future, ISSN 2154-0926, Vol. 5, no 5, p. 65-75Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Brief Agriculture is a key driver of change in the Anthropocene. It is both a critical factor for human well-being and development and a major driver of environmental decline. As the human population expands to more than 9 billion by 2050, we will be compelled to find ways to adequately feed this population while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impact of agriculture, even as global change is creating new circumstances to which agriculture must respond. Many proposals to accomplish this dual goal of increasing agricultural production while reducing its environmental impact are based on increasing the efficiency of agricultural production relative to resource use and relative to unintended outcomes such as water pollution, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions. While increasing production efficiency is almost certainly necessary, it is unlikely to be sufficient and may in some instances reduce long-term agricultural resilience, for example, by degrading soil and increasing the fragility of agriculture to pest and disease outbreaks and climate shocks. To encourage an agriculture that is both resilient and sustainable, radically new approaches to agricultural development are needed. These approaches must build on a diversity of solutions operating at nested scales, and they must maintain and enhance the adaptive and transformative capacity needed to respond to disturbances and avoid critical thresholds. Finding such approaches will require that we encourage experimentation, innovation, and learning, even if they sometimes reduce short-term production efficiency in some parts of the world.

  • 8. Caron, Patrick
    et al.
    Ferrero y de Loma-Osorio, Gabriel
    Nabarro, David
    Hainzelin, Etienne
    Guillou, Marion
    Andersen, Inger
    Arnold, Tom
    Astralaga, Margarita
    Beukeboom, Marcel
    Bickersteth, Sam
    Bwalya, Martin
    Caballero, Paula
    Campbell, Bruce M.
    Divine, Ntiokam
    Fan, Shenggen
    Frick, Martin
    Friis, Anette
    Gallagher, Martin
    Halkin, Jean-Pierre
    Hanson, Craig
    Lasbennes, Florence
    Ribera, Teresa
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schuepbach, Marlen
    Steer, Andrew
    Tutwiler, Ann
    Verburg, Gerda
    Food systems for sustainable development: proposals for a profound four-part transformation2018In: Agronomy for Sustainable Development, ISSN 1774-0746, E-ISSN 1773-0155, Vol. 38, no 4, article id 41Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Evidence shows the importance of food systems for sustainable development: they are at the nexus that links food security, nutrition, and human health, the viability of ecosystems, climate change, and social justice. However, agricultural policies tend to focus on food supply, and sometimes, on mechanisms to address negative externalities. We propose an alternative. Our starting point is that agriculture and food systems' policies should be aligned to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This calls for deep changes in comparison with the paradigms that prevailed when steering the agricultural change in the XXth century. We identify the comprehensive food systems transformation that is needed. It has four parts: first, food systems should enable all people to benefit from nutritious and healthy food. Second, they should reflect sustainable agricultural production and food value chains. Third, they should mitigate climate change and build resilience. Fourth, they should encourage a renaissance of rural territories. The implementation of the transformation relies on (i) suitable metrics to aid decision-making, (ii) synergy of policies through convergence of local and global priorities, and (iii) enhancement of development approaches that focus on territories. We build on the work of the Milano Group, an informal group of experts convened by the UN Secretary General in Milan in 2015. Backed by a literature review, what emerges is a strategic narrative linking climate, agriculture and food, and calling for a deep transformation of food systems at scale. This is critical for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The narrative highlights the needed consistency between global actions for sustainable development and numerous local-level innovations. It emphasizes the challenge of designing differentiated paths for food systems transformation responding to local and national expectations. Scientific and operational challenges are associated with the alignment and arbitration of local action within the context of global priorities.

  • 9. Clift, Roland
    et al.
    Sim, Sarah
    King, Henry
    Chenoweth, Jonathan L.
    Christie, Ian
    Clavreul, Julie
    Mueller, Carina
    Posthuma, Leo
    Boulay, Anne-Marie
    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
    Chatterton, Julia
    DeClerck, Fabrice
    Druckman, Angela
    France, Chris
    Franco, Antonio
    Gerten, Dieter
    Goedkoop, Mark
    Hauschild, Michael Z.
    Huijbregts, Mark A. J.
    Koellner, Thomas
    Lambin, Eric F.
    Lee, Jacquetta
    Mair, Simon
    Marshall, Stuart
    McLachlan, Michael S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Mila i Canals, Llorenc
    Mitchell, Cynthia
    Price, Edward
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Suckling, James
    Murphy, Richard
    The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains2017In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 9, no 2, article id 279Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the 'safe operating space' bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1) development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2) setting 'distance from boundary' measures that can be applied at different scales; (3) development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4) advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors.

  • 10.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Walker, Brian
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Global dynamics, multiple shocks, and resilience: planetary stewardship and catastrophic shifts in the earth system2011Report (Refereed)
  • 11. de Fraiture, Charlotte
    et al.
    Wichelns, Dennis
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Kemp-Benedict, Eric
    Eriyagama, Nishadi
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Hanjra, Munir A.
    Hoogeveen, Jippe
    Huber-Lee, Annette
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches2007In: Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture / [ed] David Molden, London: Earthscan , 2007, p. 91-145Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Water-mediated ecological consequences of intensive livestock production2010In: Livestock in a Changing Landscape: Drivers, Consequences and Responses / [ed] Steinfeld, H.; Mooney, H.; Schneider, F. and Neville, L., Island Press , 2010, p. 97-110Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Dile, Yihun
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Identifying Suitable Areas for Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Dile, Yihun T.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Texas A&M University, USA.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling Framework2016In: Advances in Meteorology, ISSN 1687-9309, E-ISSN 1687-9317, article id 5935430Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Extreme rainfall variability has been one of the major factors to famine and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. The potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin was assessed using two GIS-based Multicriteria Evaluation methods: (1) a Boolean approach to locate suitable areas for in situ and ex situ systems and (2) a weighted overlay analysis to classify suitable areas into different water harvesting suitability levels. The sensitivity of the results was analyzed to the influence given to different constraining factors. A large part of the basin was suitable for water harvesting: the Boolean analysis showed that 36% of the basin was suitable for in situ and ex situ systems, while the weighted overlay analysis showed that 6-24% of the basin was highly suitable. Rainfall has the highest influence on suitability for water harvesting. Implementing water harvesting in nonagricultural land use types may further increase the benefit. Assessing water harvesting suitability at the larger catchment scale lays the foundation for modeling of water harvesting at mesoscale, which enables analysis of the potential and implications of upscaling of water harvesting practices for building resilience against climatic shocks. A complete water harvesting suitability study requires socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder consultation.

  • 15. Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Daggupati, Prasad
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Wiberg, David
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Assessing the implications of water harvesting intensification on upstream-downstream ecosystem services: A case study in the Lake Tana basin2016In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 542, p. 22-35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water harvesting systems have improved productivity in various regions in sub-Saharan Africa. Similarly, they can help retain water in landscapes, build resilience against droughts and dry spells, and thereby contribute to sustainable agricultural intensification. However, there is no strong empirical evidence that shows the effects of intensification of water harvesting on upstream-downstream social-ecological systems at a landscape scale. In this paper we develop a decision support system (DSS) for locating and sizing water harvesting ponds in a hydrological model, which enables assessments of water harvesting intensification on upstream-downstream ecosystem services in meso-scale watersheds. The DSS was used with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a case-study area located in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. We found that supplementary irrigation in combination with nutrient application increased simulated teff (Eragrostis tef, staple crop in Ethiopia) production up to three times, compared to the current practice. Moreover, after supplemental irrigation of teff, the excess water was used for dry season onion production of 7.66 t/ha (median). Water harvesting, therefore, can play an important role in increasing local-to regional-scale food security through increased and more stable food production and generation of extra income from the sale of cash crops. The annual total irrigation water consumption was similar to 4%-30% of the annual water yield from the entire watershed. In general, water harvesting resulted in a reduction in peak flows and an increase in low flows. Water harvesting substantially reduced sediment yield leaving the watershed. The beneficiaries of water harvesting ponds may benefit from increases in agricultural production. The downstream social-ecological systems may benefit from reduced food prices, reduced flooding damages, and reduced sediment influxes, as well as enhancements in low flows and water quality. The benefits of water harvesting warrant economic feasibility studies and detailed analyses of its ecological impacts.

  • 16.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Assessing the Implications of Water Harvesting Intensification on Upstream-downstream Social-ecological systems: a Case Study in the Lake Tana BasinManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 17. Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    INVESTIGATION OF THE CURVE NUMBER METHOD FOR SURFACE RUNOFF ESTIMATION IN TROPICAL REGIONS2016In: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, ISSN 1093-474X, E-ISSN 1752-1688, Vol. 52, no 5, p. 1155-1169Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study tests the applicability of the curve number (CN) method within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate surface runoff at the watershed scale in tropical regions. To do this, surface runoff simulated using the CN method was compared with observed runoff in numerous rainfall-runoff events in three small tropical watersheds located in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The CN method generally performed well in simulating surface runoff in the studied watersheds (Nash-Sutcliff efficiency [NSE] > 0.7; percent bias [PBIAS] < 32%). Moreover, there was no difference in the performance of the CN method in simulating surface runoff under low and high antecedent rainfall (PBIAS for both antecedent conditions: similar to 30%; modified NSE: similar to 0.4). It was also found that the method accurately estimated surface runoff at high rainfall intensity (e.g., PBIAS < 15%); however, at low rainfall intensity, the CN method repeatedly underestimated surface runoff (e.g., PBIAS > 60%). This was possibly due to low infiltrability and valley bottom saturated areas typical of many tropical soils, indicating that there is scope for further improvements in the parameterization/representation of tropical soils in the CN method for runoff estimation, to capture low rainfall-intensity events. In this study the retention parameter was linked to the soil moisture content, which seems to be an appropriate approach to account for antecedent wetness conditions in the tropics.

  • 18.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Investigation of the curve number method for surface runoff estimation in tropical regions: a case study in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, EthiopiaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Temesgen, Melesse
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The role of water harvesting to achieve sustainable agricultural intensification and resilience against water related shocks in sub-Saharan Africa2013In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 181, p. 69-79Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Poverty alleviation in rural areas is a top priority for social and economic development, particularly against a backdrop of rising populations up to 2050 and to meet growing food demands in a rapidly urbanizing world. Sustainable intensification of agricultural techniques are therefore required, such as water management practices that result in higher agricultural production without causing severe environmental impacts, whilst at the same time improving resilience to drought and dry spells. Water harvesting practices have shown promising results in reducing risks, and improving yields whilst also delivering positive impacts on other ecosystems. However, before large scale implementation of water harvesting, further investigation of local downstream impacts are warranted. We conclude that water harvesting remains a promising option for sustainable agricultural intensification in the water scarce tropics, resulting in both risk reduction and yield improvements.

  • 20.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Meso-scale Hydrological Modeling Framework2014Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Cornell, Sarah
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Öhman, Marcus C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Daw, Tim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moberg, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schultz, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hermansson Török, Ellika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Global sustainability & human prosperity: contribution to the Post-2015 agenda and the development of Sustainable Development Goals2014Report (Other academic)
  • 22.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Makurira, Hodson
    University of Zimbabwe.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Tumbo, Siza
    Sokoine University of Agriuclture.
    Yield and soil system changes from conservation tillage in dryland farming: A case study from North Eastern Tanzania2011In: Agricultural Water Management, ISSN 0378-3774, E-ISSN 1873-2283, Vol. 98, no 11, p. 1687-1695Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Yield levels in smallholder farming systems in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa are generally low. Water shortage in the root zone during critical crop development stages is a fundamental constraining factor. While there is ample evidence to show that conservation tillage can promote soil health, it has recently been suggested that the main benefit in semi-arid farming systems may in fact be an in situ water harvesting effect. In this paper we present the result from an on-farm conservation tillage experiment (combining ripping with mulch and manure application) that was carried out in northeastern Tanzania from 2005 to 2008, testing this hypothesis. Special attention was given to the effects on the water retention properties of the soil. The tested conservation treatment only had a clear yield increasing effect during one of the six experimental seasons (maize grain yields increased by 41%, and biomass by 65%), and this was a season that received exceptional amounts of rainfall (549 mm). While the other seasons provided mixed results, there seemed to be an increasing yield gap between the conservation tillage treatment and the control towards the end of the experiment. Regarding soil system changes, small but significant effects on chemical and microbiological properties, but not on physical properties, were observed. This raises questions about the suggested water harvesting effect and its potential to contribute to stabilized yield levels under semi-arid conditions. We conclude that, at least in a shorter time perspective, the tested type of conservation tillage seems to boost productivity during already good seasons, rather than stabilize harvests during poor rainfall seasons. Highlighting the challenges involved in upgrading these farming systems, we discuss the potential contribution of conservation tillage towards improved water availability in the crop root zone in a longer-term perspective.

  • 23. Figueres, Christiana
    et al.
    Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    Whiteman, Gail
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hobley, Anthony
    Rahmstorf, Stefan
    Three years to safeguard our climate2017In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 546, no 7660, p. 593-595Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 24. Foley, Jonathan A.
    et al.
    Ramankutty, Navin
    Brauman, Kate A.
    Cassidy, Emily S.
    Gerber, James S.
    Johnston, Matt
    Mueller, Nathaniel D.
    O'Connell, Christine
    Ray, Deepak K.
    West, Paul C.
    Balzer, Christian
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Carpenter, Stephen R.
    Hill, Jason
    Monfreda, Chad
    Polasky, Stephen
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Sheehan, John
    Siebert, Stefan
    Tilman, David
    Zaks, David P. M.
    Solutions for a cultivated planet2011In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 478, no 7369, p. 337-342Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world's future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing 'yield gaps' on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.

  • 25.
    Folke, Carl
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden,.
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Stellenbosch, South Africa.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Reyers, Belinda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Social-ecological resilience and biosphere-based sustainability science2016In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 21, no 3, article id 41Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere. The focus is shifting from the environment as externality to the biosphere as precondition for social justice, economic development, and sustainability. In this article, we exemplify the intertwined nature of social-ecological systems and emphasize that they operate within, and as embedded parts of the biosphere and as such coevolve with and depend on it. We regard social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems and use a social-ecological resilience approach as a lens to address and understand their dynamics. We raise the challenge of stewardship of development in concert with the biosphere for people in diverse contexts and places as critical for long-term sustainability and dignity in human relations. Biosphere stewardship is essential, in the globalized world of interactions with the Earth system, to sustain and enhance our life-supporting environment for human well-being and future human development on Earth, hence, the need to reconnect development to the biosphere foundation and the need for a biosphere-based sustainability science.

  • 26.
    Folke, Carl
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Jansson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ebbesson, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Law, Department of Law, Stockholm Environmental Law and Policy Centre.
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Moberg, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Albaeco, Stockholm, Sweden .
    Nilsson, Måns
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT, Australia .
    Reconnecting to the biosphere2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, no 7, p. 719-738Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere-a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

  • 27. Garg, Kaushal K.
    et al.
    Wani, Suhas P.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Up-scaling potential impacts on water flows from agricultural water interventions: opportunities and trade-offs in the Osman Sagar catchment, Musi sub-basin, India2013In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 27, no 26, p. 3905-3921Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural water management (AWM) has been shown to improve and secure yields in the tropics and has been suggested as an important way to combat poverty in the region. In this paper, we describe potential impacts on upstream and downstream flows of extensive AWM interventions, using the watershed development programme of the Osman Sagar catchment of Musi sub-basin, Andhra Pradesh semi-arid India, as an example. Various AWM interventions are compared with a non-intervention state and the current state of the study area, using 31 years of data by application of the calibrated and validated ARCSWAT 2005 (Version 2.1.4a) modelling tool. Different AWM interventions contribute to improved livelihoods of upstream smallholder farmers by increasing soil moisture availability and groundwater recharge, which can subsequently be used for irrigation. The result is higher crop production and hence larger incomes. Moreover, lower flow intensities and sediment losses reduced by 30-50%, reducing the risk of flooding and sediment accumulation in the Osman Sagar drinking water reservoir. On the other hand, AWM interventions are predicted to result in reduced total water inflows to the Osman Sagar reservoir from 11% of the total annual rainfall (754mm) recorded at present, to 8% if AWM interventions were implemented at large scale throughout the catchment. A cost-benefit analysis of AWM interventions showed that the highest net economic returns were achieved at intermediate intervention levels (only in-situ AWM).

  • 28. Garg, K.L.
    et al.
    Wani, S.P.
    Barron, J.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Reply to comment on ‘Up-scaling potential impacts on water flows from agricultural water interventions: opportunities and trade-offs in the Osman Sagar catchment, Musi sub-basin, India’2014In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 28, no 8, p. 3352-3355Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 29. Gerst, Michael D.
    et al.
    Raskin, Paul D.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Contours of a Resilient Global Future2014In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 123-135Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Humanity confronts a daunting double challenge in the 21st century: meeting widely-held aspirations for equitable human development while preserving the bio-physical integrity of Earth systems. Extant scientific attempts to quantify futures that address these sustainability challenges are often not comprehensive across environmental and social drivers of global change, or rely on quantification methods that largely exclude deep social, cultural, economic, and technological shifts, leading to a constrained set of possibilities. In search of a broader set of trajectories, we combine three previously separate streams of inquiry: scenario analysis, planetary boundaries, and targets for human development. Our analysis indicates there are plausible, diverse scenarios that remain within Earth's safe bio-physical operating space and achieve a variety of development targets. However, dramatic social and technological changes are required to avert the social-ecological risks of a conventional development trajectory. One identified narrative, which is predominant in the scenario literature, envisions marginal changes to the social and cultural drivers underlying conventional growth trajectories. As a result, it requires unprecedented levels of international cooperation, alignment of powerful conflicting interests, and political willpower to bend technological change in a sustainable direction. We posit that a more viable and robust scenario might lie in the coupling of transformative social-cultural and technological changes, which set the necessary conditions for a transition to a resilient global future. While clearly a first step, our analysis points to the need for more in-depth exploration of the mechanisms and determinant forces for such unconventional futures.

  • 30.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bignet, Victoria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Henriksson, Patrik J. G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
    Van Holt, Tracy
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Center for Sustainable Business, United States of America.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Barthel, Stephan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 10, article id 100201Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.

  • 31. Griggs, David
    et al.
    Smith, Mark Stafford
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Öhman, Marcus C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gaffney, Owen
    Glaser, Gisbert
    Kanie, Norichika
    Noble, Ian
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Shyamsundar, Priya
    An integrated framework for sustainable development goals2014In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 49-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The United Nations (UN) Rio+20 summit committed nations to develop a set of universal sustainable development goals (SDGs) to build on the millennium development goals (MDGs) set to expire in 2015. Research now indicates that humanity's impact on Earth's life support system is so great that further global environmental change risks undermining long-term prosperity and poverty eradication goals. Socioeconomic development and global sustainability are often posed as being in conflict because of tradeoffs between a growing world population, as well as higher standards of living, and managing the effects of production and consumption on the global environment. We have established a framework for an evidence-based architecture for new goals and targets. Building on six SDGs, which integrate development and environmental considerations, we developed a comprehensive framework of goals and associated targets, which demonstrate that it is possible, and necessary, to develop integrated targets relating to food, energy, water, and ecosystem services goals; thus providing a neutral evidence-based approach to support SDG target discussions. Global analyses, using an integrated global target equation, are close to providing indicators for these targets. Alongside development-only targets and environment-only targets, these integrated targets would ensure that synergies are maximized and trade-offs are managed in the implementation of SDGs.

  • 32. Guerry, Anne D.
    et al.
    Polasky, Stephen
    Lubchenco, Jane
    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
    Daily, Gretchen C.
    Griffin, Robert
    Ruckelshaus, Mary
    Bateman, Ian J.
    Duraiappah, Anantha
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Feldman, Marcus W.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Hoekstra, Jon
    Kareiva, Peter M.
    Keeler, Bonnie L.
    Li, Shuzhuo
    McKenzie, Emily
    Ouyang, Zhiyun
    Reyers, Belinda
    Ricketts, Taylor H.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Tallis, Heather
    Vira, Bhaskar
    Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 24, p. 7348-7355Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.

  • 33. Hajer, Maarten
    et al.
    Nilsson, Måns
    Raworth, Kate
    Bakker, Peter
    Berkhout, Frans
    de Boer, Yvo
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ludwig, Kathrin
    Kok, Marcel
    Beyond Cockpit-ism: Four Insights to Enhance the Transformative Potential of the Sustainable Development Goals2015In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 2, p. 1651-1660Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) have the potential to become a powerful political vision that can support the urgently needed global transition to a shared and lasting prosperity. In December 2014, the United Nations (UN) Secretary General published his report on the SDGs. However, the final goals and targets that will be adopted by the UN General Assembly in September 2015 risk falling short of expectations because of what we call cockpit-ism: the illusion that top-down steering by governments and intergovernmental organizations alone can address global problems. In view of the limited effectiveness of intergovernmental efforts and questions about the capacity of national governments to affect change, the SDGs need to additionally mobilize new agents of change such as businesses, cities and civil society. To galvanize such a broad set of actors, multiple perspectives on sustainable development are needed that respond to the various motives and logics of change of these different actors. We propose four connected perspectives which can strengthen the universal relevance of the SDGs: planetary boundaries to stress the urgency of addressing environmental concerns and to target governments to take responsibility for (global) public goods; the safe and just operating space to highlight the interconnectedness of social and environmental concerns and its distributive consequences; the energetic society to benefit from the willingness of a broad group of actors worldwide to take action; and green competition to stimulate innovation and new business practices. To realize the transformative potential of the SDGs, these four perspectives should be reflected in the focus and content of the SDGs that will be negotiated in the run up to September 2015 and its further implementation.

  • 34. Hansen, James
    et al.
    Kharecha, Pushker
    Sato, Makiko
    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie
    Ackerman, Frank
    Beerling, David J.
    Hearty, Paul J.
    Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
    Hsu, Shi-Ling
    Parmesan, Camille
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rohling, Eelco J.
    Sachs, Jeffrey
    Smith, Pete
    Steffen, Konrad
    Van Susteren, Lise
    von Schuckmann, Karina
    Zachos, James C.
    Assessing Dangerous Climate Change: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature2013In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, no 12, p. e81648-Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of similar to 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 degrees C global warming, would spur slow feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 degrees C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  • 35.
    Hoff, Holger
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gerten, D.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Greening the global water system2010In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 384, no 04-mar, p. 177-186Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent developments of global models and data sets enable a new, spatially explicit and process-based assessment of green and blue water in food production and trade. An initial intercomparison of a range of different (hydrological, vegetation, crop, water resources and economic) models, confirms that green water use in global crop production is about 4-5 times greater than consumptive blue water use. Hence, the full green-to-blue spectrum of agricultural water management options needs to be used when tackling the increasing water gap in food production. The different models calculate considerable potentials for complementing the conventional approach of adding irrigation, with measures to increase water productivity, such as rainwater harvesting, supplementary irrigation, vapour shift and soil and nutrient management. Several models highlight Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, as a key region for improving water productivity in agriculture, by implementing these measures. Virtual water trade, mostly based on green water, helps to close the water gap in a number of countries. It is likely to become even more important in the future, when inequities in water availability are projected to grow, due to climate, population and other drivers of change. Further model developments and a rigorous green-blue water model intercomparison are proposed, to improve simulations at global and regional scale and to enable tradeoff analyses for the different adaptation options.

  • 36. Homer-Dixon, Thomas
    et al.
    Walker, Brian
    Biggs, Reinette
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Lambin, Eric F.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 3, article id 6Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern's deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system's behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework's propositions.

  • 37. Hughes, Terry P.
    et al.
    Carpenter, Stephen
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Walker, Brian
    Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries2013In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 28, no 7, p. 389-395Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.

  • 38. Jonker, L.
    et al.
    van der Zaag, P.
    Gumbo, B.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Love, D.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    A regional and multi-faceted approach to postgraduate water education - the WaterNet experience in Southern Africa2012In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 16, no 11, p. 4225-4232Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reports the experience of a regional network of academic departments involved in water education that started as a project and evolved, over a period of 12 yr, into an independent network organisation. The paper pursues three objectives. First, it argues that it makes good sense to organise postgraduate education and research on water resources on a regional scale and presents the WaterNet experience as an example that a regional approach can work. Second, it presents preliminary findings and conclusions that the regional approach presented by WaterNet did make a contribution to the capacity needs of the region both in terms of management and research capacity. Third, it draws two generalised lessons from the WaterNet experience. Lesson one pertains to the importance of legitimate ownership and an accountability structure for network effectiveness. Lesson two is related to the financial and intellectual resources required to jointly developing educational programmes through shared experience.

  • 39. Jägermeyr, J.
    et al.
    Gerten, D.
    Schaphoff, S.
    Heinke, J.
    Lucht, W.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 2, article id 025002Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an 'ambitious' scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.

  • 40.
    Karlberg, Louise
    et al.
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Annandale, J.G.
    Steyn, J.M.
    Low-cost drip irrigation of tomatoes using saline water: a suitable technology for southern Africa?2007In: Agricultural water management, Vol. 89, no 1/2, p. 59-70Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 41.
    Karlberg, Lousie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Barron, J.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Water productivity and green water management in agro-ecosystems2008In: Water for Food, Fomas, Stockholm , 2008Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 42.
    Kijne, Jacob
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Hoff, Holger
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Gowing, John
    Wani, Suhas P.
    Wichelns, Dennis
    Opportunities to increase water productivity in agriculture with special reference to Africa and South Asia2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Our primary goal in this paper is to describe how improvements in water and land management can increase the productivity of water in agriculture, which, broadly defined, means getting more value or benefit from the volume of water used to produce crops, fish, forests and livestock (Kijne et al., 2003). We begin by reviewing water scarcity and water productivity at the global level. We then describe ten Key Messages regarding efforts to improve water productivity in agriculture, with emphasis on Africa and South Asia.

  • 43.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anderies, John M.
    Beer, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gasser, Thomas
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Richardson, Katherine
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing2018In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 507-523Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

  • 44. Landrigan, Philip J.
    et al.
    Fuller, Richard
    Acosta, Nereus J. R.
    Adeyi, Olusoji
    Arnold, Robert
    Basu, Niladri (Nil)
    Balde, Abdoulaye Bibi
    Bertollini, Roberto
    Bose-O'Reilly, Stephan
    Boufford, Jo Ivey
    Breysse, Patrick N.
    Chiles, Thomas
    Mahidol, Chulabhorn
    Coll-Seck, Awa M.
    Cropper, Maureen L.
    Fobil, Julius
    Fuster, Valentin
    Greenstone, Michael
    Haines, Andy
    Hanrahan, David
    Hunter, David
    Khare, Mukesh
    Krupnick, Alan
    Lanphear, Bruce
    Lohani, Bindu
    Martin, Keith
    Mathiasen, Karen V.
    McTeer, Maureen A.
    Murray, Christopher J. L.
    Ndahimananjara, Johanita D.
    Perera, Frederica
    Potocnik, Janez
    Preker, Alexander S.
    Ramesh, Jairam
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Salinas, Carlos
    Samson, Leona D.
    Sandilya, Karti
    Sly, Peter D.
    Smith, Kirk R.
    Steiner, Achim
    Stewart, Richard B.
    Suk, William A.
    van Schayck, Onno C. P.
    Yadama, Gautam N.
    Yumkella, Kandeh
    Zhong, Ma
    The Lancet Commission on pollution and health2018In: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 391, no 10119, p. 462-512Article, review/survey (Refereed)
  • 45. Makurira, H.
    et al.
    Savenije, H.H.G.
    Uhlenbrook, S.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Senzanje, A.
    Investigating the water balance of on-farm techniques for improved crop productivity in rainfed systems: A case study of Makanya catchment, Tanzania2009In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Vol. 34, no 1/2, p. 93-98Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 46.
    Nilsson, Annika E.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Assessing resilience when change is the only given2012In: The Circle : WWF magazine, ISSN 2074-076X, no 1, p. 10-11Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 47. Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    et al.
    Voeroesmarty, Charles
    Bhaduri, Anik
    Bogardi, Janos
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Alcamo, Joseph
    Towards a sustainable water future: shaping the next decade of global water research2013In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN 1877-3435, E-ISSN 1877-3443, Vol. 5, no 6, p. 708-714Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over a decade of global water research has provided clear evidence on the global dimension of the water challenge and the role of humans as a chief force shaping the global water cycle. Mounting evidence suggests no reversals in major trends and an expectation of intensified and pandemic water problems. Research in the past has emphasized the identification of problems more than the identification of solutions. A clear shift in emphasis towards solutions-oriented approaches is required. The next decade of research should be directed towards motivating a transition from knowledge-to-concrete action, and to find solutions through the co-production of knowledge involving scientists and stakeholders. This paper summarizes a blueprint for a Sustainable Water Future initiative, arguing for the necessity of a strong water programme in global change research. We provide specific suggestions on forming a strategic partnership of scientists, public stakeholders, decision-makers and the private sector to implement a reality-based, multiperspective, and multi-scale knowledge-to-action water agenda.

  • 48.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Water productivity in rainfed systems: Overview of challenges and analysis of opportunities in water scarcity prone savannahs2007In: Irrigation science, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 299-311Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 49.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Barron, Jennie
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Managing water in rainfed agriculture2007In: Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, Earthscan, London , 2007, p. 317-352Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 50.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Brasseur, Guy
    Hoskins, Brian
    Lucht, Wolfgang
    Schellnhuber, John
    Kabat, Pavel
    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
    Gong, Peng
    Schlosser, Peter
    Manez Costa, Maria
    Humble, April
    Eyre, Nick
    Gleick, Peter
    James, Rachel
    Lucena, Andre
    Masera, Omar
    Moench, Marcus
    Schaeffer, Roberto
    Seitzinger, Sybil
    van der Leeuw, Sander
    Ward, Bob
    Stern, Nicholas
    Hurrell, James
    Srivastava, Leena
    Morgan, Jennifer
    Nobre, Carlos
    Sokona, Youba
    Cremades, Roger
    Roth, Ellinor
    Liverman, Diana
    Arnott, James
    Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment2014In: Earth’s Future, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 2, no 12, p. 606-611Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

12 1 - 50 of 76
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