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  • 1. Bennett, Elena
    et al.
    Carpenter, S.R.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Toward a more resilient agriculture2014In: Solutions : For a Sustainable & Desirable Future, ISSN 2154-0926, Vol. 5, no 5, p. 65-75Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Brief Agriculture is a key driver of change in the Anthropocene. It is both a critical factor for human well-being and development and a major driver of environmental decline. As the human population expands to more than 9 billion by 2050, we will be compelled to find ways to adequately feed this population while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impact of agriculture, even as global change is creating new circumstances to which agriculture must respond. Many proposals to accomplish this dual goal of increasing agricultural production while reducing its environmental impact are based on increasing the efficiency of agricultural production relative to resource use and relative to unintended outcomes such as water pollution, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions. While increasing production efficiency is almost certainly necessary, it is unlikely to be sufficient and may in some instances reduce long-term agricultural resilience, for example, by degrading soil and increasing the fragility of agriculture to pest and disease outbreaks and climate shocks. To encourage an agriculture that is both resilient and sustainable, radically new approaches to agricultural development are needed. These approaches must build on a diversity of solutions operating at nested scales, and they must maintain and enhance the adaptive and transformative capacity needed to respond to disturbances and avoid critical thresholds. Finding such approaches will require that we encourage experimentation, innovation, and learning, even if they sometimes reduce short-term production efficiency in some parts of the world.

  • 2. Bennett, Elena M.
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. McGill University, Canada.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services.2009In: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 12, no 12, p. 1394-1404Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecosystem management that attempts to maximize the production of one ecosystem service often results in substantial declines in the provision of other ecosystem services. For this reason, recent studies have called for increased attention to development of a theoretical understanding behind the relationships among ecosystem services. Here, we review the literature on ecosystem services and propose a typology of relationships between ecosystem services based on the role of drivers and the interactions between services. We use this typology to develop three propositions to help drive ecological science towards a better understanding of the relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Research which aims to understand the relationships among multiple ecosystem services and the mechanisms behind these relationships will improve our ability to sustainably manage landscapes to provide multiple ecosystem services.

  • 3.
    Biggs, Reinette
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Regime Shifts2011In: Sourcebook in Theoretical Ecology / [ed] A Hastings, L Gross, University of California Press, 2011Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 4. de Fraiture, Charlotte
    et al.
    Wichelns, Dennis
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Kemp-Benedict, Eric
    Eriyagama, Nishadi
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Hanjra, Munir A.
    Hoogeveen, Jippe
    Huber-Lee, Annette
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches2007In: Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture / [ed] David Molden, London: Earthscan , 2007, p. 91-145Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Water-mediated ecological consequences of intensive livestock production2010In: Livestock in a Changing Landscape: Drivers, Consequences and Responses / [ed] Steinfeld, H.; Mooney, H.; Schneider, F. and Neville, L., Island Press , 2010, p. 97-110Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dryspell frequency and trends over time in semi-arid and dry sub-humid sub-Saharan Africa: Implictions for smallholder farmersManuscript (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Small-scale farmers in semi-arid and dry sub-humid sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are vulnerable to dryspells, a primary reason for agricultural droughts. We used large-scale publicly available datasets to analyze frequency and trends over time in dryspells of critical length for farmers. 54 rainfall stations across the croplands of semi-arid and dry sub-humid SSA were included. Results show that stations with long-term seasonal rainfall averages below 600 mm experience critical dryspells in more than 60% of their seasons, whereas the corresponding figure for stations with averages above 600 mm is 40% or less. Almost every season is affected by dryspells for stations below 400 mm. Further, dryspell seasons are often affected by multiple dryspells. Most stations do not show any trends of changing dryspell frequency. Among the 21 stations that do exhibit changes over time, 19 have been subjected to an increasing trend, and only 2 to a decreasing trend. For six stations the increase is statistically significant. We conclude that frequent dryspell seasons with multiple dryspells, is a reality of rainfed farming systems, especially in semi-arid SSA. Efforts to increase productivity in these systems must include strategies to manage dryspells to be effective. The publicly available data contains large gaps that restrict the analysis. This is highly problematic, particularly given the fundamental importance of rainfall dynamics for livelihoods in the poorest regions of the world.

  • 7.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Gordon, Line
    Analysing resilience in dryland agro-ecosystems: A case study of the Makanya catchment in Tanzania over the past 50 years2007In: Land Degradation and Development, ISSN 1085-3278, E-ISSN 1099-145X, Vol. 18, no 6, p. 680-696Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, interfaculty units, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dealing with drought: The challenge of using water system technologies to break dryland poverty traps2008In: Global environmental change, ISSN 0959-3780 , Vol. 18, no 4, p. 607-616Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore strategies among farmers in semi-arid Tanzania to cope with drought, and investigate if access to a local supplemental irrigation system (the Ndiva system) can improve coping capacity. Results show high dependency on local ecosystem services when harvests fail, and indicate that farmers commonly exhaust asset holdings during droughts. Ndiva access did not have any direct effects on coping capacity, but seemed to have some indirect effects. Drawing on our findings we discuss the complexity of escaping persistent dryland poverty, and outline the circumstances under which small-scale water system technologies, such as Ndiva irrigation, may help.

  • 9.
    Enfors, Elin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bossio, Deborah
    Making investments in dryland development work: participatory scenario planning in the Makanya catchment, Tanzania2008In: Ecology and society, ISSN 1708-3087 , Vol. 13, no 2, p. 42-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10. Eriksson, M. G.
    et al.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kuylenstierna, Johan L.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Cross-sectoral approaches help build water resilience – reflections2014In: Aquatic Procedia, ISSN 2214-241X, Vol. 2, p. 42-47Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future challenges for the planet includes e.g. population growth, climate change and urbanisation. The combined pressure from these and other processes on water, energy and ecosystem services call for cross-sectoral approaches to increase the resilience of society, with particular aim to reduce hydro-climatic hazards and secure water availability of sufficient quantity and quality. In the global strife to achieve this water resilience, we pinpoint four strategies of pivotal importance. These are: 1) to ensure sustainable utilisation of ecosystems and their services; 2) to ensure that interventions for increased resilience are tailor-made to local conditions; 3) to broaden livelihood opportunities in order to make income-generating activities less dependent on only one sector or resource; and 4) to facilitate interactions between rural and urban areas and processes. Although the challenges mentioned are largely human induced, the power to address these are also within human reach. It is only if we properly facilitate work building on the linkages between humans and the environment that we can enhance water resilience.

  • 11. Fischer, Joern
    et al.
    Peterson, Garry D
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Gardner, Toby A
    Gordon, Line J
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Fazey, Ioan
    Elmqvist, Thomas
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Felton, Adam
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dovers, Stephen
    Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation.2009In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 24, no 10, p. 549-54Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conservation strategies need to be both effective and efficient to be successful. To this end, two bodies of research should be integrated, namely 'resilience thinking' and 'optimisation for conservation,' both of which are highly policy relevant but to date have evolved largely separately. Resilience thinking provides an integrated perspective for analysis, emphasising the potential of nonlinear changes and the interdependency of social and ecological systems. By contrast, optimisation for conservation is an outcome-oriented tool that recognises resource scarcity and the need to make rational and transparent decisions. Here we propose that actively embedding optimisation analyses within a resilience-thinking framework could draw on the complementary strengths of the two bodies of work, thereby promoting cost-effective and enduring conservation outcomes.

  • 12.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Communication: Moving closer to social-ecological thresholds?: Freshwater and the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems.Manuscript (preprint) (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 13.
    Gordon, Line
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Dunlop, M
    Foran, B
    Land cover change and water vapour flows: Learning from Australia.2003In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, ISSN 0962-8436, Vol. 358, no 1440, p. 1973-1984Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Australia is faced with large-scale dryland salinization problems, largely as a consequence of the clearing of native vegetation for cropland and grassland. We estimate the change in continental water vapour flow (evapotranspiration) of Australia during the past 200 years. During this period there has been a substantial decrease in woody vegetation and a corresponding increase in croplands and grasslands. The shift in land use has caused a ca. 10% decrease in water vapour flows from the continent. This reduction corresponds to an annual freshwater flow of almost 340 km(3). The society-induced alteration of freshwater flows is estimated at more than 15 times the volume of run-off freshwater that is diverted and actively managed in the Australian society. These substantial water vapour flow alterations were previously not addressed in water management but are now causing serious impacts on the Australian society and local economies. Global and continental freshwater assessments and policy often neglects the interplay between freshwater flows and landscape dynamics. Freshwater issues on both regional and global levels must be rethought and the interplay between terrestrial ecosystems and freshwater better incorporated in freshwater and ecosystem management.

  • 14.
    Gordon, Line
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Enfors, Elin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Land degradation, ecosystem services and resilience of smallholder farmers in Makanya catchment, Tanzania.2008In: Conserving land, protecting water, / [ed] Bossio, D., Geheb, K., CABI Publishing , 2008, p. 33-50Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    The degradation of land and water resources resulting primarily from agricultural activities has had enormous impact on human society. In order to alleviate this problem an advanced understanding of the state of our resources and the process of degradation is needed. Conserving More... Land, Protecting Water includes an overview of existing literature focusing on global patterns of land and water degradation and discussions of new insights drawn from successful case studies on reversing soil and water degradation and their impact on food and environmental security.

  • 15.
    Gordon, Line
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ecohydrological landscape management for human well-being.2002In: Water International, ISSN 0250-8060, Vol. 25, no 2, p. 178-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a new perspective on water resources emphasizing the role of water vapor flows for human well-being. The connections between freshwater and ecosystem services in terrestrial environments are addressed, particularly the role of freshwater for the biota that sustains the flow of ecosystem services and the role of the biota that modifies freshwater flows. First, the water dependence of terrestrial ecosystem sewices and food production are analyzed. Secondly, two examples of unintentional, large-scale, water-mediated cascading effects related to ecosystem services that result from local, uncoordinated decisions in Australia and South Africa are discussed These two countries are taking the lead in the management of freshwater flows and terrestrial ecosystem services. Issues including potential conflicts of interest and trade-offs between food (or timber) production and ecosystem sewices at the catchment scale are taken into account. A world-wine, intentional ecohydrological landscape approach to handle these issues is suggested. One important step towards a more integrated approach to freshwater is the development of flexible institutional structures

  • 16.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bignet, Victoria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Henriksson, Patrik J. G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
    Van Holt, Tracy
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Center for Sustainable Business, United States of America.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Barthel, Stephan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 10, article id 100201Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.

  • 17.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Finlayson, C. Max
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Managing water in agriculture for food production and other ecosystem services2010In: Agricultural Water Management, ISSN 0378-3774, E-ISSN 1873-2283, Vol. 97, no 4, p. 512-519Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural systems as well as other ecosystems generate ecosystem services, i.e., societal benefits from ecological processes. These services include, for example, nutrient reduction that leads to water quality improvements in some wetlands and climatic regulation through recycling of precipitation in rain forests. While agriculture has increased ‘provisioning’ ecosystem services, such as food, fiber and timber production, it has, through time, substantially impacted other ecosystem services. Here we review the trade-offs among ecosystem services that have been generated by agriculture-induced changes to water quality and quantity in downstream aquatic systems, wetlands and terrestrial systems. We highlight emerging issues that need urgent attention in research and policy making. We identify three main strategies by which agricultural water management can deal with these large trade-offs: (a) improving water management practices on agricultural lands, (b) better linkage with management of downstream aquatic ecosystems, and (c) paying more attention to how water can be managed to create multifunctional agro-ecosystems. This can only be done if ecological landscape processes are better understood, and the values of ecosystem services other than food production are also recognized.

  • 18.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Bennett, Elena M.
    Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises2008In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 23, no 4, p. 211-219Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural expansion and intensification have altered the quantity and quality of global water flows. Research suggests that these changes have increased the risk of catastrophic ecosystem regime shifts. We identify and review evidence for agriculture-related regime shifts in three parts of the hydrological cycle: interactions between agriculture and aquatic systems, agriculture and soil, and agriculture and the atmosphere. We describe the processes that shape these regime shifts and the scales at which they operate. As global demands for agriculture and water continue to grow, it is increasingly urgent for ecologists to develop new ways of anticipating, analyzing and managing nonlinear changes across scales in human-dominated landscapes.

  • 19.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Steffen, Will
    Jönsson, Bror F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Johannessen, Åse
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface2005In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 102, no 21, p. 7612-7617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is well documented that human modification of the hydrological cycle has profoundly affected the flow of liquid water across the Earth’s land surface. Alteration of water vapor flows through land-use changes has received comparatively less attention, despite compelling evidence that such alteration can influence the functioning of the Earth System. We show that deforestation is as large a driving force as irrigation in terms of changes in the hydrological cycle. Deforestation has decreased global vapor flows from land by 4% (3,000 km3/yr), a decrease that is quantitatively as large as the increased vapor flow caused by irrigation (2,600 km3/yr). Although the net change in global vapor flows is close to zero, the spatial distributions of deforestation and irrigation are different, leading to major regional transformations of vapor-flow patterns. We analyze these changes in the light of future land-use-change projections that suggest widespread deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa and intensification of agricultural production in the Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, significant modification of vapor flows in the lands around the Indian Ocean basin will increase the risk for changes in the behavior of the Asian monsoon system. This analysis suggests that the need to increase food production in one region may affect the capability to increase food production in another. At the scale of the Earth as a whole, our results emphasize the need for climate models to take land-use change, in both land cover and irrigation, into account.

  • 20.
    Hoff, Holger
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gerten, D.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Greening the global water system2010In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 384, no 04-mar, p. 177-186Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent developments of global models and data sets enable a new, spatially explicit and process-based assessment of green and blue water in food production and trade. An initial intercomparison of a range of different (hydrological, vegetation, crop, water resources and economic) models, confirms that green water use in global crop production is about 4-5 times greater than consumptive blue water use. Hence, the full green-to-blue spectrum of agricultural water management options needs to be used when tackling the increasing water gap in food production. The different models calculate considerable potentials for complementing the conventional approach of adding irrigation, with measures to increase water productivity, such as rainwater harvesting, supplementary irrigation, vapour shift and soil and nutrient management. Several models highlight Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, as a key region for improving water productivity in agriculture, by implementing these measures. Virtual water trade, mostly based on green water, helps to close the water gap in a number of countries. It is likely to become even more important in the future, when inequities in water availability are projected to grow, due to climate, population and other drivers of change. Further model developments and a rigorous green-blue water model intercomparison are proposed, to improve simulations at global and regional scale and to enable tradeoff analyses for the different adaptation options.

  • 21.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, USA.
    Barnes, E. A.
    van der Ent, R. J.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework2014In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 3937-3950Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent research has revealed that upwind land-use changes can significantly influence downwind precipitation. The precipitationshed (the upwind ocean and land surface that contributes evaporation to a specific location's precipitation) may provide a boundary for coordination and governance of these upwind-downwind water linkages. We aim to quantify the variability of the precipitationshed boundary to determine whether there are persistent and significant sources of evaporation for a given region's precipitation. We identify the precipitationsheds for three regions (i.e., western Sahel, northern China, and La Plata) by tracking atmospheric moisture with a numerical water transport model (Water Accounting Model-2layers, or WAM-2layers) using gridded fields from both the ERA-Interim (European Reanalysis Interim) and MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalyses. Precipitationshed variability is examined first by diagnosing the persistence of the evaporation contribution and second with an analysis of the spatial variability of the evaporation contribution. The analysis leads to three key conclusions: (1) a core precipitationshed exists; (2) most of the variance in the precipitationshed is explained by a pulsing of more or less evaporation from the core precipitationshed; and (3) the reanalysis data sets agree reasonably well, although the degree of agreement is regionally dependent. Given that much of the growing-season evaporation arises from within a core precipitationshed that is largely persistent in time, we conclude that the precipitationshed can potentially provide a useful boundary for governing land-use change on downwind precipitation.

  • 22.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    van der Ent, R. J.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hoff, Holger
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Nikoli, R.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions2012In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 733-746Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is well known that rivers connect upstream and downstream ecosystems within watersheds. Here we describe the concept of precipitationsheds to show how upwind terrestrial evaporation source areas contribute moisture for precipitation to downwind sink regions. We illustrate the importance of upwind land cover in precipitationsheds to sustain precipitation in critically water stressed downwind areas, specifically dryland agricultural areas. We first identify seven regions where rainfed agriculture is particularly vulnerable to reductions in precipitation, and then map their precipitationsheds. We then develop a framework for qualitatively assessing the vulnerability of precipitation for these seven agricultural regions. We illustrate that the sink regions have varying degrees of vulnerability to changes in upwind evaporation rates depending on the extent of the precipitationshed, source region land use intensity and expected land cover changes in the source region.

  • 23.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Megacity precipitationsheds reveal reliance on regional evaporation for water supplyManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, United States of America.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands; Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges2018In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 13, no 3, article id e0194311Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the watershed of the sky and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security.

  • 25.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, USA.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem Service2016In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 11, no 3, article id e0151993Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An ecosystem service is a benefit derived by humanity that can be traced back to an ecological process. Although ecosystem services related to surface water have been thoroughly described, the relationship between atmospheric water and ecosystem services has been mostly neglected, and perhaps misunderstood. Recent advances in land-atmosphere modeling have revealed the importance of terrestrial ecosystems for moisture recycling. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which vegetation sustains the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation for downwind beneficiaries, globally. We simulate land-surface evaporation with a global hydrology model and track changes to moisture recycling using an atmospheric moisture budget model, and we define vegetation-regulated moisture recycling as the difference in moisture recycling between current vegetation and a hypothetical desert world. Our results show that nearly a fifth of annual average precipitation falling on land is from vegetation-regulated moisture recycling, but the global variability is large, with many places receiving nearly half their precipitation from this ecosystem service. The largest potential impacts for changes to this ecosystem service are land-use changes across temperate regions in North America and Russia. Likewise, in semi-arid regions reliant on rainfed agricultural production, land-use change that even modestly reduces evaporation and subsequent precipitation, could significantly affect human well-being. We also present a regional case study in the Mato Grosso region of Brazil, where we identify the specific moisture recycling ecosystem services associated with the vegetation in Mato Grosso. We find that Mato Grosso vegetation regulates some internal precipitation, with a diffuse region of benefit downwind, primarily to the south and east, including the La Plata River basin and the megacities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We synthesize our global and regional results into a generalized framework for describing moisture recycling as an ecosystem service. We conclude that future work ought to disentangle whether and how this vegetationregulated moisture recycling interacts with other ecosystem services, so that trade-offs can be assessed in a comprehensive and sustainable manner.

  • 26.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ebbesson, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Law, Department of Law.
    Approaching moisture recycling governanceManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 27.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, USA.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ebbesson, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Law, Department of Law.
    Approaching moisture recycling governance2017In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 45, p. 15-23Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The spatial and temporal dynamics of water resources are a continuous challenge for effective and sustainable national and international governance. The watershed is the most common spatial unit in water resources governance, which typically includes only surface and groundwater. However, recent advances in hydrology have revealed 'atmospheric watersheds' - otherwise known as precipitationsheds. Water flowing within a precipitationshed may be modified by land-use change in one location, while the effect of this modification could be felt in a different province, country, or continent. Despite an upwind country's ability to change a downwind country's rainfall through changes in land-use or land management, the major legal and institutional implications of changes in atmospheric moisture flows have remained unexplored. Here we explore potential ways to approach what we denote as moisture recycling governance. We first identify a set of international study regions, and then develop a typology of moisture recycling relationships within these regions ranging from bilateral moisture exchange to more complex networks. This enables us to classify different types of possible governance principles and relate those to existing land and water governance frameworks and management practices. The complexity of moisture recycling means institutional fit will be difficult to generalize for all moisture recycling relationships, but our typology allows the identification of characteristics that make effective governance of these normally ignored water flows more tenable.

  • 28.
    Lindborg, Regina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
    Bengtsson, Jan
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bommarco, Riccardo
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gren, Åsa
    Rundlöf, Maj
    Smith, Henrik G.
    How spatial scale shapes the generation and management of multiple ecosystem services2017In: Ecosphere, ISSN 2150-8925, E-ISSN 2150-8925, Vol. 8, no 4, article id e01741Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The spatial extent of ecological processes has consequences for the generation of ecosystem services related to them. However, management often fails to consider issues of scale when targeting ecological processes underpinning ecosystem services generation. Here, we present a framework for conceptualizing how the amount and spatial scale (here discussed in terms of extent) of management interventions alter interactions among multiple ecosystem services. First, we identify four types of responses of ecosystem service generation: linear, exponential, saturating, and sigmoid, and how these are related to the amount of management intervention at a particular spatial scale. Second, using examples from multiple ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes, we examine how the shape of these relationships can vary with the spatial scale at which the management interventions are implemented. Third, we examine the resulting scale-dependent consequences for trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services as a consequence of interventions. Finally, to inform guidelines for management of multiple ecosystem services in real landscapes, we end with a discussion linking the theoretical relationships with how landscape configurations and placement of interventions can alter the scale at which synergies and trade-offs among services occur.

  • 29.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jewitt, Graham
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Mapping ecosystem services across scales and continents - A review2015In: Ecosystem Services, ISSN 2212-0416, E-ISSN 2212-0416, Vol. 13, p. 57-63Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Tremendous progress in ecosystem service mapping across the world has moved the concept of ecosystem services forward towards an increasingly useful tool for policy and decision making. There is a pressing need to analyse the various spatial approaches used for the mapping studies. We reviewed ecosystem services mapping literature in respect to spatial scale, world distribution, and types of ecosystem services considered. We found that most world regions were represented among ecosystem service mapping studies and that they included a diverse set of ecosystem services, relatively well distributed across different ecosystem service categories. A majority of the studies were presented at intermediary scales (municipal and provincial level), and 66% of the studies used a fine resolution of 1 ha or less. The intermediary scale of presentation is important for land use policy and management. The fact that studies are conducted at a fine resolution is important for informing land management practices that mostly takes place at the scale of fields to villages. Ecosystem service mapping could be substantially advanced by more systematic development of cross-case comparisons and methods.

  • 30.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jewitt, Graham
    Using Participatory Scenario Planning to Identify Ecosystem Services in Changing Landscapes2013In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 18, no 4, article id UNSP 10Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a growing interest in assessing ecosystem services to improve ecosystem management in landscapes containing a mix of different ecosystems. While methodologies for assessing ecosystem services are constantly improving, only little attention has been given to the identification of which ecosystem services to assess. Service selection is mostly based on current state of the landscape although many landscapes are both inherently complex and rapidly changing. In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes. Using an agricultural landscape in South Africa we compared different sets of services selected for an assessment by four different groups: stakeholders making the scenarios, experts who have read the scenarios, experts who had not read the scenarios, and services derived from literature. We found significant differences among the services selected by different groups, especially between the literature services and the other groups. Cultural services were least common in literature and that list was also most dissimilar in terms of identity, ranking, and numbers of services compared to the other three groups. The services selected by experts and the scenario stakeholders were relatively similar indicating that knowledge of a study area gained through the scenario exercise is not very different from that of experts actively working in the area. Although our results show limited value in using scenario development for improved ecosystem service selection per se, the scenario development process triggers important discussions with local and regional stakeholders about key issues of today, helping to more correctly assess changes in the future.

  • 31.
    Malinga, Rebecka
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Graham, Jewitt
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Andersson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    On the other side of the ditch: The stark contrasts between smallholder and commercial farmers' contribution to multiple ecosystem servicesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Malmborg, Katja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Sinare, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Enfors Kautsky, Elin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ouedraogo, Issa
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mapping livelihood benefits from ecosystem services in rural Sahel: Developing a method for up-scaling community based assessments of a multifunctional landscapeManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 33.
    Malmborg, Katja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Sinare, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Enfors Kautsky, Elin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ouedraogo, Issa
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mapping regional livelihood benefits from local ecosystem services assessments in rural Sahel2018In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 13, no 2, article id e0192019Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most current approaches to landscape scale ecosystem service assessments rely on detailed secondary data. This type of data is seldom available in regions with high levels of poverty and strong local dependence on provisioning ecosystem services for livelihoods. We develop a method to extrapolate results from a previously published village scale ecosystem services assessment to a higher administrative level, relevant for land use decision making. The method combines remote sensing (using a hybrid classification method) and interviews with community members. The resulting landscape scale maps show the spatial distribution of five different livelihood benefits (nutritional diversity, income, insurance/saving, material assets and energy, and crops for consumption) that illustrate the strong multi-functionality of the Sahelian landscapes. The maps highlight the importance of a diverse set of sub-units of the landscape in supporting Sahelian livelihoods. We see a large potential in using the resulting type of livelihood benefit maps for guiding future land use decisions in the Sahel.

  • 34.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 014015-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  • 35.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Allan, T.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Jagerskog, A.
    Kummu, M.
    Lannerstad, M.
    Meybeck, M.
    Molden, D.
    Postel, S.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Svedin, Uno
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Turton, A.
    Varis, O.
    The unfolding water drama in the Anthropocene: towards a resilience-based perspective on water for global sustainability2014In: Ecohydrology, ISSN 1936-0584, E-ISSN 1936-0592, Vol. 7, no 5, p. 1249-1261Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The human influence on the global hydrological cycle is now the dominant force behind changes in water resources across the world and in regulating the resilience of the Earth system. The rise in human pressures on global freshwater resources is in par with other anthropogenic changes in the Earth system (from climate to ecosystem change), which has prompted science to suggest that humanity has entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. This paper focuses on the critical role of water for resilience of social-ecological systems across scales, by avoiding major regime shifts away from stable environmental conditions, and in safeguarding life-support systems for human wellbeing. It highlights the dramatic increase of water crowding: near-future challenges for global water security and expansion of food production in competition with carbon sequestration and biofuel production. It addresses the human alterations of rainfall stability, due to both land-use changes and climate change, the ongoing overuse of blue water, reflected in river depletion, expanding river basin closure, groundwater overexploitation and water pollution risks. The rising water turbulence in the Anthropocene changes the water research and policy agenda, from a water-resource efficiency to a water resilience focus. This includes integrated land and water stewardship to sustain wetness-dependent ecological functions at the landscape scale and a stronger emphasis on green water management for ecosystem services. A new paradigm of water governance emerges, encouraging land-use practices that explicitly take account of the multifunctional roles of water, with adequate attention to planetary freshwater boundaries and cross-scale interactions.

  • 36.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Lannerstad, Mats
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Barron, Jennie
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Enfors, Elin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Heinke, Jens
    Hoff, Holger
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    Water resilience for human prosperity2014Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The world's human population now constitutes the largest driving force of changes to the biosphere. Emerging water challenges require new ideas for governance and management of water resources in the context of rapid global change. This book presents a new approach to water resources, addressing global sustainability and focusing on socio-ecological resilience to changes. Topics covered include the risks of unexpected change, human impacts and dependence on global water, the prospects for feeding the world's population by 2050, and a pathway for the future. The book's innovative and integrated approach links green and blue freshwater with terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem functions and use. It also links changes arising from land-use alteration with the impacts of those changes on social-ecological systems and ecosystem services. This is an important, state-of-the-art resource for academic researchers and water resource professionals, and a key reference for graduate students studying water resource governance and management.

  • 37.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Engwall, Maria
    Linkages among water vapour flows, food production and terrestrial ecosystem services.1999In: Conservation Ecology, ISSN 1195-5449, Vol. 3, no 2Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Global freshwater assessments have not addressed the linkages among water vapor flows, agricultural food production, and terrestrial ecosystem services. We perform the first bottom-up estimate of continental water vapor flows, subdivided into the major terrestrial biomes, and arrive at a total continental water vapor flow of 70,000 km3/yr (ranging from 56,000 to 84,000 km3/yr). Of this flow, 90% is attributed to forests, including woodlands (40,000 km3/yr), wetlands (1400 km3/yr), grasslands (15,100 km3/yr), and croplands (6800 km3/yr). These terrestrial biomes sustain society with essential welfare-supporting ecosystem services, including food production. By analyzing the freshwater requirements of an increasing demand for food in the year 2025, we discover a critical trade-off between flows of water vapor for food production and for other welfare-supporting ecosystem services. To reduce the risk of unintentional welfare losses, this trade-off must become embedded in intentional ecohydrological landscape management

  • 38.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Williams, John
    Daily, Gretchen
    Noble, Andrew
    Matthews, Nathanial
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wetterstrand, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    DeClerck, Fabrice
    Shah, Mihir
    Steduto, Pasquale
    de Fraiture, Charlotte
    Hatibu, Nuhu
    Unver, Olcay
    Bird, Jeremy
    Sibanda, Lindiwe
    Smith, Jimmy
    Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability2017In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 46, no 1, p. 4-17Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined-at all scales-in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.

  • 39.
    Sellberg, My M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Norström, Albert V.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Envisioning a positive food future based on local initiatives: the case of the Stockholm regionManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Globally, food systems face multifaceted sustainability challenges and the need for substantial food system change or transformation is increasingly acknowledged. Such transformations will look different across the world due to diverse regional social-ecological contexts. We explored and articulated what a transformed food system could look like in a specific regional context – the Stockholm-Mälaren region in Sweden, based on the perspectives of a diverse set of regional actors. The approach we used is based on a novel methodology for bottom-up, participatory narrative scenarios that has been developed in the international sustainability science project “Bright Spots: Seeds of the Good Anthropocene”. Through a participatory workshop and a survey, we explored a vision of a positive food future for the Stockholm-Mälaren region and potential conflicts and opportunities for moving towards that future. The emerging vision highlights four components that represent a significant change from the current situation: 1) Increased self-sufficiency and access to local food, 2) A vibrant and inclusive food sector and culture, 3) Nutrient-rich, less resource-intensive diets, and 4) Agriculture contributing to environmental sustainability. The study highlights conflicts between different goals of a sustainable and resilient food system, such as food security, self-sufficiency and resource efficiency, that need to be clarified and managed. We also identify opportunities for creating transformative change in the Stockholm-Mälaren food system, including: the leverage of key actors in between producers and consumers, agreement on a broader vision among the participating food actors, a potential to link to national-scale narratives of food security and sustainable consumption and incorporate change at the scale of local governments.

  • 40.
    Sinare, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ecosystem services from woody vegetation on agricultural lands in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa2015In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 200, p. 186-199Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Investment in woody vegetation to counter land degradation and improve livelihoods is increasing, primarily revitalized by efforts to enhance carbon sequestration and climate change adaptation. Sudano-Sahelian West Africa is in focus for several interventions to increase woody vegetation for improved livelihoods. However, the knowledge on how woody vegetation maintains landscape productivity and contributes to livelihoods is widely scattered across different scientific fields. Here we review different bodies of literature including a total of 30 species of woody vegetation. We use ecosystem services as a lens to integrate knowledge about how woody vegetation affect ecosystem processes and contribute to livelihoods. We find that the majority of the species generate multiple provisioning ecosystem services. Medicinal uses, contribution to fodder for livestock and importance for human nutrition are reported for almost all species. Regulating ecosystem services are studied for a more narrow set of species. There are mainly positive or no effects on soil nutrients, soil carbon and soil water content. The overall effect of woody vegetation on crop yields is mediated through multiple processes and shows both positive and negative effects. The majority of studies are focused on effects of individual elements of woody vegetation, with very limited landscape scale analyses. Differences between beneficiaries of ecosystem services are only discussed in a few studies, and only in relation provisioning services. Therefore, future studies need to address landscape scale effects and how the benefits of ecosystem services are distributed among beneficiaries, to provide knowledge that is even more relevant for interventions that aim to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation, ecosystem restoration, as well as poverty alleviation.

  • 41.
    Sinare, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Enfors Kautsky, Elin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Assessment of ecosystem services and benefits in village landscapes – A case study from Burkina Faso2016In: Ecosystem Services, ISSN 2212-0416, E-ISSN 2212-0416, Vol. 21, p. 141-152Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most methods to assess ecosystem services have been developed on large scales and depend on secondary data. Such data is scarce in rural areas with widespread poverty. Nevertheless, the population in these areas strongly depends on local ecosystem services for their livelihoods. These regions are in focus for substantial landscape investments that aim to alleviate poverty, but current methods fail to capture the vast range of ecosystem services supporting livelihoods, and can therefore not properly assess potential trade-offs and synergies among services that might arise from the interventions. We present a new method for classifying village landscapes into social-ecological patches (landscape units corresponding to local landscape perceptions), and for assessing provisioning ecosystem services and benefits to livelihoods from these patches. We apply the method, which include a range of participatory activities and satellite image analysis, in six villages across two regions in Burkina Faso. The results show significant and diverse contributions to livelihoods from six out of seven social-ecological patches. The results also show how provisioning ecosystem services, primarily used for subsistence, become more important sources of income during years when crops fail. The method is useful in many data poor regions, and the patch-approach allows for extrapolation across larger spatial scales with similar social-ecological systems.

  • 42.
    Sinare, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Börjeson, Lowe
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography.
    Enfors Kautsky, Elin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Changes in ecosystem services in Sahelian village landscapes 1952-2016Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 43. Springmann, Marco
    et al.
    Clark, Michael
    Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
    Wiebe, Keith
    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
    Lassaletta, Luis
    de Vries, Wim
    Vermeulen, Sonja J.
    Herrero, Mario
    Carlson, Kimberly M.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden..
    DeClerck, Fabrice
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Zurayk, Rami
    Scarborough, Peter
    Rayner, Mike
    Loken, Brent
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. EAT, Norway.
    Fanzo, Jess
    Godfray, H. Charles J.
    Tilman, David
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Willett, Walter
    Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits2018In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 562, no 7728, p. 519-+Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50-90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

  • 44. Steffen, Will
    et al.
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Zalasiewicz, J.
    Crumley, Carole
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Svedin, Uno
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The anthropocene: from global change to planetary stewardship2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, no 7, p. 739-761Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.

  • 45.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.
    Gao, H.
    Jägermeyr, J.
    Senay, G. B.
    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.
    Guerschman, J. P.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, USA.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation2016In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 20, no 4, p. 1459-1481Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study presents an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity – a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale independent. In contrast to a traditional look-up table approach, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover types, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depths otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. Our results suggest that several forest types are able to create a large storage to buffer for severe droughts (with a very long return period), in contrast to, for example, savannahs and woody savannahs (medium length return period), as well as grasslands, shrublands, and croplands (very short return period). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for poor resolution soil and rooting depth data that form a limitation for achieving progress in the global land surface modelling community.

  • 46.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands; Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Japan.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Keys, Patrick W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Colorado State University, USA.
    van der Ent, Ruud J.
    Savenije, Hubert H. G.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Remote land use impacts on river flows through atmospheric teleconnections2018In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 8, p. 4311-4328Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of land-use change on river flows have usually been explained by changes within a river basin. However, land-atmosphere feedback such as moisture recycling can link local land-use change to modifications of remote precipitation, with further knock-on effects on distant river flows. Here, we look at river flow changes caused by both land-use change and water use within the basin, as well as modifications of imported and exported atmospheric moisture. We show that in some of the world's largest basins, precipitation was influenced more strongly by land-use change occurring outside than inside the basin. Moreover, river flows in several non-transboundary basins were considerably regulated by land-use changes in foreign countries. We conclude that regional patterns of land-use change and moisture recycling are important to consider in explaining runoff change, integrating land and water management, and informing water governance.

  • 47.
    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
    van der Ent, R. J.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle - Part 1: Temporal characteristics over land2014In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 441-469Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Moisture recycling, the contribution of terrestrial evaporation to precipitation, has important implications for both water and land management. Although terrestrial evaporation consists of different fluxes (i.e. transpiration, vegetation interception, floor interception, soil moisture evaporation, and open-water evaporation), moisture recycling (terrestrial evaporation-precipitation feedback) studies have up to now only analysed their combined total. This paper constitutes the first of two companion papers that investigate the characteristics and roles of different evaporation fluxes for land-atmosphere interactions. Here, we investigate the temporal characteristics of partitioned evaporation on land and present STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) - a hydrological land-surface model developed to provide inputs to moisture tracking. STEAM estimates a mean global terrestrial evaporation of 73 900 km(3)year(-1), of which 59% is transpiration. Despite a relatively simple model structure, validation shows that STEAM produces realistic evaporative partitioning and hydrological fluxes that compare well with other global estimates over different locations, seasons, and land-use types. Using STEAM output, we show that the terrestrial residence timescale of transpiration (days to months) has larger inter-seasonal variation and is substantially longer than that of interception (hours). Most transpiration occurs several hours or days after a rain event, whereas interception is immediate. In agreement with previous research, our simulations suggest that the vegetation's ability to transpire by retaining and accessing soil moisture at greater depth is critical for sustained evaporation during the dry season. We conclude that the differences in temporal characteristics between evaporation fluxes are substantial and reasonably can cause differences in moisture recycling, which is investigated more in the companion paper (van der Ent et al., 2014, hereafter Part 2).

  • 48. Wood, Sylvia L. R.
    et al.
    Jones, Sarah K.
    Johnson, Justin A.
    Brauman, Kate A.
    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
    Fremier, Alexander
    Girvetz, Evan
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kappel, Carrie V.
    Mandle, Lisa
    Mulligan, Mark
    O'Farrell, Patrick
    Smith, William K.
    Willemen, Louise
    Zhang, Wei
    DeClerck, Fabrice A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. CGIAR, France.
    Distilling the role of ecosystem services in the Sustainable Development Goals2018In: Ecosystem Services, ISSN 2212-0416, E-ISSN 2212-0416, Vol. 29, p. 70-82Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Achieving well-being for all, while protecting the environment, is one of the most pressing global challenges of our time, and a central idea in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We believe that integrating ecosystem services, the benefits nature provides to people, into strategies for meeting the SDGs can help achieve this. Many development goals are likely underpinned by the delivery of one or more ecosystem services. Understanding how these services could support multiple development targets will be essential for planning synergistic and cost-effective interventions. Here we present the results of an expert survey on the contributions of 16 ecosystem services to achieving SDG targets linked to environment and human well-being, and review the capacity of modelling tools to evaluate SDG-relevant ecosystem services interactions. Survey respondents judged that individual ecosystem services could make important contributions to achieving 41 targets across 12 SDGs. The provision of food and water, habitat & biodiversity maintenance, and carbon storage & sequestration were perceived to each make contributions to > 14 SDG targets, suggesting cross-target interactions are likely, and may present opportunities for synergistic outcomes across multiple SDGs. Existing modelling tools are well-aligned to support SDG-relevant ecosystem service planning. Together, this work identifies entry points and tools to further analyze the role of ecosystem services to support the SDGs.

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