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  • 1. Abd-Alrahman, Ahmed Mustafa
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Modelling Health Information during Catastrophic Events - A Disaster Management System for Sudan2017In: IST-Africa 2017: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Paul Cunningham, Miriam Cunningham, International Information Management Corporation Limited, 2017, p. 1-9Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an increasing trend of disastrous events during past decade with significant damage in terms of lives, infrastructure, economics and environment. Disastrous events are affecting communities worldwide and, apart for the actual and personal suffering involved, can fundamentally disrupt societal functions for many years. This is particularly the case in already vulnerable regions, which often require external assistance of various kinds. In order to reduce catastrophic effects of disasters, disaster mitigation measures and crisis reduction must be systematically planned and managed. This includes correct damage assessment, fast, efficient and prepared responses, adequate resource allocation and organisation of the relief processes. Obviously, the conditions and abilities to implement such measures are very different in various locations, where regions have particularly severe conditions. In this paper, we discuss crisis management in Sudan and highlight the need for national and regional disaster management processes and activities as well as general framework for the design of an efficient disaster management program in Sudan.

  • 2. Abd-Alrhman, A.M.
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    A Multi-layered Data Preparation Model for Health Information in Sudan2020In: The International Journal on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions, ISSN 1800-4156, Vol. 13, no 3, p. 1-14Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3.
    Abdel-Fattah, Dina
    et al.
    UiT – The Arctic University of Norway, Norway; University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Hock, Regine
    University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA; University of Oslo, Norway.
    Trainor, Sarah
    University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA.
    Application of a structured decision-making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska2024In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, ISSN 1057-9214, E-ISSN 1099-1360, Vol. 31, no 1-2, article id e1825Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge-type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in the state is both poorly understood and under-researched, which poses a challenge in developing appropriate sustainability decisions in Alaska. We investigated how the surge patterns of the Bering Glacier in Alaska have potentially devastating effects on the local ecological biodiversity of its watershed via a structured decision-making analysis of the different possible consequences. Specifically, this analysis was conducted to explore the various outcomes of a Bering Glacier surge particularly if humans have an increased presence near the glacier due to the area potentially becoming a state park. This work explored the benefits of applying a risk and decision analytical framework in a cryosphere context, to better understand the socioeconomic impact of glacier surges. This is a novel approach in which a decision analysis tool was used to better understand an environmental sustainability challenge, offering an innovative method to support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals in Alaska. We therefore emphasise the need for integrated biophysical and socioeconomic analyses when it comes to understanding glacier hazards. Our research highlights the importance of understanding and researching biophysical changes as well as using a structured decision-making process for complicated hazard planning scenarios, exemplified via glaciated regions in Alaska, in order to create adaptation strategies that are sustainable and encompass the range of possible outcomes.

  • 4.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Confraria, João
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Sweden International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    A Utility Based Price Model for High Capacity Rural Networks in the European Union2018In: 2018 IEEE 29th Annual International Symposium on Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications (PIMRC), IEEE, 2018, p. 253-258Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Union has been battling against the digital divide for several decades now when trying to mitigate the risk of social exclusion arising from the lack of broadband access, preventing citizens from full social and economic participation in the society. This has been done in the past by ensuring that a minimum set of services would be available to all end-users at an affordable price. However, various aspects of the rapid advances in technology, market developments and changes in user demand as well as the evolution of the telecommunications infrastructure (5G, IoT, Cloud, gigabit access, etc) increase the risk that citizens of rural areas are facing a severe risk of digital exclusion. To avoid this risk, the concept of subsidised rural networks was created by the European Commission. The idea as such is laudable, but the price tag remains unknown, which severely violates its implementability. In this article, based on the actual cost in a subsidised, but competitive, environment, we suggest a novel approach to realistically determine fair end-user's prices.

  • 5.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Confraria, João
    Risk assessment in 5G infrastructure deployment: an aid tool for estimating spectrum auction prices2019In: 2019 IEEE Wireless Communications and Networking Conference Workshop (WCNCW), IEEE, 2019Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Risks are significant when implementing large-scale projects such as 5G. The higher the overall risk of the 5G project, the lower the operators’ willingness to invest in millimetre wave spectrum and vice-versa; i.e. the price of the spectrum should be negatively correlated with the overall project risk. In this paper, we propose an array-based method for estimating financial risks when introducing 5G and its correspondence with spectrum prices. The method is based on Monte Carlo simulations, for deriving an appropriate maximum value for the operator’ willingness to pay for a 5G license.

  • 6.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Confraria, João
    Rural Networks Cost Comparison Between 5G (Mobile) and FTTx (Fixed) Scenarios2018In: 2018 IEEE 29th Annual International Symposium on Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications (PIMRC), IEEE, 2018, p. 259-264Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article we simulate the infrastructure costs for very fast networks in rural areas. FTTH technology has been around for at least a decade, but two brand new technologies are expected to launch commercially in the next couple of years: 5G and G. Fast. This could have a strong impact on infrastructure costs and the fulfilment of the European Union, rural coverage objectives. 5G seems to be very promising since LTE is not a reasonable solution for very fast networks. FTTC has so far not been a valid alternative, since for the last mile, the only options for FTTC has been ADSL and VDSL, which however cannot reach very fast data rates. G.Fast is three times faster than VDSL and has the advantage, comparing to FTTH, that the last mile infrastructure is already build in the form of copper local loop.

  • 7.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Confraria, João
    School of Business & Economics, Catholic University, Portugal.
    Satellite backhaul for macro-cells, as an alternative to optical fibre, to close the digital divide2019In: 2019 IEEE Wireless Communications and Networking Conference (WCNC), IEEE, 2019Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The lack of broadband access causes a serious risk of social exclusion, by preventing citizens from full social and economic participation in the society. To avoid this risk, the concept of subsidized rural networks was developed by the European Commission, in which an operator builds, maintains and operates a network (usually an open network) capable of providing at least a 100 Mbps connection to the subscribers; deployed in low density regions being publicly subsidized when unprofitable. In this article, we suggest a methodology to measure a realistic value for the average broadband used per subscriber at busy hour. We also present a simulation model for the backhaul infrastructure costs for very fast networks in rural areas to cover the last, and more expensive, 5% of the population, while comparing optical fibre with satellite for the middle mile from an economical and financial perspective.

  • 8.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Confraria, João
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    A real options approach to decision making in broadband technology selection2019In: International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, ISSN 2040-106X, E-ISSN 2040-1078, Vol. 8, no 2, p. 184-210Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Union has recently launched an ambitious plan to mitigate drastically, by 2025, the number of households lacking access to a 100 Mbps broadband connection through the subsidisation of the deployment of network infrastructure in rural areas. Decision makers such as governments and regulatory authorities therefore have to choose, among a pool of alternatives, a technology capable of delivering the required throughput on a large scale, based on a trade-off between the infrastructure costs and the subscribers’ perceived utility for each alternative. Such a trade-off is not simple, since there is no straightforward manner to rank the subscribers’ perceived utility against the network infrastructure cost. In this article, we propose a methodology based on real options, which outputs the value of each technology using multi-attribute value theory as an input, alongside the project’s risk and its costs.

  • 9.
    Araújo, Marco
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Confraria, João
    Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics, Portugal.
    A Multi-Criteria Approach to Decision Making in Broadband Technology Selection2022In: Group Decision and Negotiation, ISSN 0926-2644, E-ISSN 1572-9907, Vol. 31, no 2, p. 387-418Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new European Union regulatory framework for the telecom sector has been under a process of transposition to national laws by its member states that should have been completed by the end of 2020, notwithstanding some delays. A core purpose of the regulatory framework is to guarantee that most citizens will have access to very fast Internet connections, capable of 100 Mbps download link speed, regardless of where they live. According to this new framework, in areas where the market does not deliver, governments are to launch public tenders for the deployment, maintenance, and operations of network infrastructure as well as services, and public funds should be used to support the deployment of these broadband networks in less densely populated areas. Needless to say, public tenders of this nature are subject to different criteria when it comes to candidate evaluation. In this paper, we present a decision model for the selection of operators to deploy and maintain broadband networks in scarcely populated areas, taking into consideration infrastructure costs, the technical quality offered by the solutions, and the credibility of the candidates. We suggest an integrated multi-stakeholder multi-criteria approach and demonstrate how it can be used in this complex area and find that in the example provided, taking a relevant set of criteria into the analysis, optical fibre networks hold much higher chances to be used in these public tenders compared to networks based on the broadly favoured 5G technology.

  • 10.
    Barkhuus, Louise
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Rossitto, Chiara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Forsberg, Rebecca
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Sauter, Willmar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Interactive Performances as a Means of Social Participation and Democratic Dialogue2014In: International Reports on Socio-Informatics (IRSI), E-ISSN 1861-4280, Vol. 11, no 1, p. 11-20Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this position paper we present our ongoing research in relation to cultivating democracy and civic participation through the writing and performance of interactive theater experiences1. We provide an example of a performance that facilitates audience participation through expression and sharing of opinions and emotions, by means of digital technologies. The performance leads to further discussion within the community and inspires more artistic and theatrical experiences in this context.

  • 11.
    Bergholtz, Maria
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Hansson, Karin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Johannesson, Paul
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Snygg, Joakim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Framework for evaluating tools used in edemocracy: transparency, autonomy, consensus and pluralism2014In: DSV writers hut 2014: proceedings, Stockholm: Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University , 2014Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of e-democracy has been around for a while. However, the intercontextual understanding of this is still immature which complicates interdisciplinarity and communication with a diversity of stakeholders, resulting in a weak participation and implementation of e-services. This is even more emphasized in an international setting, not the least in the context of various European Union initiatives regarding e-service provision. To increase the participation in the context, e-democracy services can be utilized for strengthening individual capabilities as well as political processes. The effective design of such processes requires tools to support decision-making, collaboration, and collaborative decision-making, voting engagement and involvement in the democratic process. This article presents an evaluation framework suitable for tools for e-democracy aiming at forming a constructive base for implementing an efficient support for enabling an increased participation in vital democratic processes.

  • 12.
    Boeva, Veselka
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    A transition logic for schemata conflicts2004In: Data & Knowledge Engineering, ISSN 0169-023X, E-ISSN 1872-6933, Vol. 51, no 3, p. 277-294Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conflict detection and analysis are of high importance, e.g., when integrating conceptual schemata, such as UML-Specifications, or analysing goal-fulfilment of sets of autonomous agents. In general, models for this introduce unnecessarily complicated frameworks with several disadvantages regarding semantics as well as complexity. This paper demonstrates that an important set of static and dynamic conflicts between specifications can be diagnosed using ordinary first-order modal logic. Furthermore, we show how the framework can be extended for handling situations when there are convex sets of probability measures over a state-space. Thus, representing specifications as conceptual schemata and using standard Kripke models of modal logic, augmented with an interval-valued probability measure, we propose instrumental definitions and procedures for conflict detection.

  • 13. Borking, Kjell
    et al.
    Danielson, Mats
    Davies, Guy
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Transcending Business Intelligence2011Book (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Borking, Kjell
    et al.
    Preference AB.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Davies Miklos, Guy
    Ekenberg, Love
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Telia AB.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Transcending Business Intelligence: Third Revised Edition2022 (ed. 3)Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main problem with human decision making is that intuition is seldom sufficient. In many cases, making rational and well-considered decisions unaided is simply too difficult. An even greater problem is that most people don’t realise this. People believe themselves to be rational but really and truly their capacity for rationality is rather limited, a situation that’s made worse by the delusion that, without any kind of help, we can make wise decisions. You might think that organisations and people should just get on with things as well as they can and leave it at that, but it’s often the case that decisions affect other people, sometimes quite a lot, sometimes crucially, and in some cases they affect many other people or organisms, born and unborn. This applies, for example, to public decisions on policies, not least during the Covid-19 pandemic, and on large-scale infrastructure projects. Not uncommonly, we get the impression of an unacceptably large element of chance, even in very costly or controversial matters. This is quite unnecessary.

    Download full text (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 15. Borking, Kjell
    et al.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Bortom Business Intelligence2009 (ed. 1)Book (Other academic)
    Download full text (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 16.
    Brouwers, Lisa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Hansson, Karin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Danielson, Mats
    Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
    Multi-criteria decision-making of policy strategies with public-private re-insurance systems.2004In: Risk, Decision, and Policy, ISSN 1357-5309, E-ISSN 1466-4534, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 23-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article describes an integrated flood catastrophe model as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary: the Palad-Csecsei basin. The background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based on these data, for which a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public-private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. Obviously, this is a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder problem and cannot be solved using standard approaches. It should, however, be emphasised that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to explore a set of policy packages that could gain a consensus among the stakeholders.

  • 17.
    Brouwers, Lisa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Hansson, Karin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study2002In: Applied Simulation and Modelling: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference / [ed] L. Ubertini, Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We argue that integrated catastrophe models are useful for policy decisions, for which a large degree of uncertainty is a natural ingredient. Recently, much attention has been given to the financial management of natural disasters. This article describes the results of a case study performed in northeastern Hungary where different flood management strategies have been explored and compared using an integrated catastrophe model. The area used for the pilot study is the Palad-Csecsei basin (the Pilot basin) where 4 621 persons live. The Pilot basin is located in the Upper Tisza region. An executable and geographically explicit model has been developed, linking hydrological, geographical, financial, and social data. The outcomes of the policy simulations are represented at different granularity-levels; the individual, the aggregated (entire basin), and the governmental.

  • 18.
    Candia, Rodolfo
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Programvaruutveckling.
    Glimbert, Lars
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    ICT for Academic Development in Sri Lanka2007Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Caster, Ola
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Uppsala Monitoring Centre, Sweden.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Combining Second-Order Belief Distributions with Qualitative Statements in Decision Analysis2012In: Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks / [ed] Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2012, p. 67-87Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is often a need to allow for imprecise statements in real-world decision analysis. Joint modeling of intervals and qualitative statements as constraint sets is one important approach to solving this problem, with the advantage that both probabilities and utilities can be handled. However, a major limitation with interval-based approaches is that aggregated quantities such as expected utilities also become intervals, which often hinders efficient discrimination. The discriminative power can be increased by utilizing second-order information in the form of belief distributions, and this paper demonstrates how qualitative relations between variables can be incorporated into such a framework. The general case with arbitrary distributions is described first, and then a computationally efficient simulation algorithm is presented for a relevant sub-class of analyses. By allowing qualitative relations, our approach preserves the ability of interval-based methods to be deliberately imprecise. At the same time, the use of belief distributions allows more efficient discrimination, and it provides a semantically clear interpretation of the resulting beliefs within a probabilistic framework.

  • 20.
    Caster, Ola
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Uppsala Monitoring Centre, Sweden.
    Norén, G. Niklas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics. Uppsala Monitoring Centre, Sweden.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Edwards, I. Ralph
    Quantitative Benefit-Risk Assessment Using Only Qualitative Information on Utilities2012In: Medical decision making, ISSN 0272-989X, E-ISSN 1552-681X, Vol. 32, no 6, p. E1-E15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Utilities of pertinent clinical outcomes are crucial variables for assessing the benefits and risks of drugs, but numerical data on utilities may be unreliable or altogether missing. We propose a method to incorporate qualitative information into a probabilistic decision analysis framework for quantitative benefit-risk assessment. Objective: To investigate whether conclusive results can be obtained when the only source of discriminating information on utilities is widely agreed upon qualitative relations, for example, ''sepsis is worse than transient headache'' or ''alleviation of disease is better without than with complications.'' Method: We used the structure and probabilities of 3 published models that were originally evaluated based on the standard metric of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs): terfenadine versus chlorpheniramine for the treatment of allergic rhinitis, MCV4 vaccination against meningococcal disease, and alosetron for irritable bowel syndrome. For each model, we identified clinically straightforward qualitative relations among the outcomes. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the resulting utility distributions were then combined with the previously specified probabilities, and the rate of preference in terms of expected utility was determined for each alternative. Results: Our approach conclusively favored MCV4 vaccination, and it was concordant with the QALY assessments for the MCV4 and terfenadine versus chlorpheniramine case studies. For alosetron, we found a possible unfavorable benefit-risk balance for highly risk-averse patients not identified in the original analysis. Conclusion: Incorporation of widely agreed upon qualitative information into quantitative benefit-risk assessment can provide for conclusive results. The methods presented should prove useful in both population and individual-level assessments, especially when numerical utility data are missing or unreliable, and constraints on time or money preclude its collection.

  • 21.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    UTICT, Mozambique.
    Carrilho, Sérgio
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Taula, Rufino
    MCDM Framework and the Selection of Network Topology: GovNet Case Study2006In: IST-Africa 2006 Conference Proceedings / [ed] Paul Cunningham & Miriam Cunningham, IIMC International Information Management Corporation , 2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 22.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    UTICT, Mozambique.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    e-Government and Architecture Principles Government Portal Case Study2006In: Exploiting the Knowledge Economy: Issues, Applications, Case Studies / [ed] Paul Cunningham & Miriam Cunningham, Amsterdam: IOS Press , 2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 23.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    UTICT, Mozambique.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Finger, Matthias
    eGovernment and Sociotechnical Feedback Control System2008In: IST-Africa 2008 Conference Proceedings / [ed] Paul Cunningham & Miriam Cunningham, IIMC International Information Management Corporation , 2008Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 24.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Popov, Oliver
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Carrilho, S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Government Network and Information Security MCDM Framework for the Selection of Security Mechanisms:  2005In: Proceedings of CNIS 2005 / [ed] M.H. Hamza, Phoenix, USA: Acta Press , 2005Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The establishment of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs), Intranets and Internet access channels by Governments raises the need of making sure that only authorized people access the Government VPN resources. The large base of network security mechanisms and VPN implementation alternatives available makes it difficult to select the “optimal” security mechanisms or controls to be used in order to ensure the required or defined level of security for a specific VPN. This paper addresses the security mechanisms selection problem by proposing a MCDM model for structuring the VPN selection decision problem. Data collected from the Government Network Project (GovNet) being implemented in Mozambique was used to support both the development and validation of the Model.

  • 25.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Popov, Oliver
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Cossa, T.
    MCDM Model for Selecting Internet Access Technologies: A Case Study in Mozambique2005In: EUROCON 2005: The International Conference on "Computer as a Tool", Proceedings, volume II, 2005, p. 1738-1741Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The development of Internet, networking and access technologies is providing a wide variety of Internet interconnection alternatives. The availability of several options in the Internet interconnection market makes it difficult to select the "optimal" alternative for a specific end-user in a specific context. A MCDM based model for structuring and solving the Internet access technologies selection decision problem is proposed. The applicability and validation of this approach is demonstrated in a case study in Mozambique

  • 26.
    Chemane, Lourino
    et al.
    UTICT, Mozambique.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Popov, Oliver
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Saifodine, Z.
    Government Network and ISP Selection Model - Mozambique Case Study2005In: Innovation and the Knowledge Economy: Issues, Applications, Case Studies / [ed] Paul Cunningham & Miriam Cunningham, Amsterdam: IOS Press , 2005Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Cunningham, Paul
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. IIMC / IST-Africa, Ireland.
    Cunningham, Miriam
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. IIMC / IST-Africa, Ireland.
    Ekenberg, Love
    International Institute for Applied, Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Assessment of potential ICT-related collaboration and innovation capacity in east Africa2015In: 2015 IEEE Global Humanitarian Technology Conference (GHTC): Proceedings, IEEE, 2015, p. 100-107Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Due to a significant investment in digital infrastructure and a pro-innovation policy and regulatory framework, the Innovation Ecosystems in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam and Kampala have considerably expanded over the last five years, incorporating new national and international Innovation Stakeholders. This is important in the context of realising the objectives of National Development Plans, and addressing high levels of youth and graduate unemployment. This paper presents a sub-set of results from a comprehensive baseline analysis of Innovation Ecosystems in these cities with a focus on assessing the current level of ICT-related Collaboration, Innovation Absorption capacity and challenges to be addressed. In order to benefit from these developments, it is recommended that the public sector take a leadership role in establishing necessary mechanisms that will stimulate multi-stakeholder collaboration amongst existing Innovation Actors to foster a sustainable Collaborative Open Innovation and Entrepreneurial culture.

  • 28.
    Cunningham, Paul
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Cunningham, Miriam
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Baseline Analysis of 3 Innovation Ecosystems in East Africa2014In: 2014 International Conference on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions (ICTer), 2014, p. 156-162Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The potential impact of computing innovations supporting social and economic development (particularly in developing countries) is very dependent on the level of maturity of National Innovation Ecosystems (including policy environment, infrastructure and socio-economic diversification). East Africa has experienced significant growth in ICT-enabled Innovation (particularly mobile) in recent years. Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have experienced considerable entrepreneurial growth, facilitated by Innovation friendly regulatory environments, evolution of National Research Education Networks (NReNs) and rollout of fibre optic backbones. While it is clear that ICT, Job Creation and developing a Knowledge Economy are common policy priorities, the Innovation Ecosystems in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam and Kampala are quite fragmented. While support for entrepreneurship is improving, Innovation Spaces have sustainability challenges with their business models and there is a limited availability of funding, and training and mentoring for entrepreneurs. Greater collaboration between different stakeholders and more efficient support systems are required to promote accelerated development. In this paper, we provide a survey of the key Innovation Stakeholders in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam and Kampala. This is based on semi-structured face to face interviews (November 2012 – February 2013), supplemented by IST-Africa Surveys, focus group engagement during Research and Innovation Stakeholder workshops, and supported by desk research, follow-up e-mails and telephone interviews to reflect developments up to July 2014.

  • 29.
    Cunningham, Paul
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Cunningham, Miriam
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Factors Impacting on the Current Level of Open Innovation and ICT Entrepreneurship in Africa2016In: The Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries, E-ISSN 1681-4835, Vol. 73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Across Africa, Innovation and ICT entrepreneurship are increasingly recognised as important enablers of national and regional socio-economic growth. However, the level of skills capacity, indigenous entrepreneurial expertise and policy support varies considerably. This research study was informed by a semi-structured, moderated focus group involving five public and four education and research stakeholders from eight African Member States. It focused on identifying factors impacting on the current level of open innovation and ICT entrepreneurship in Africa. Organised in Lilongwe, Malawi on 08 May 2015 during IST-Africa Week 2015, a purposive approach was applied to identify the nine informants based on intensity sampling. The results highlighted six main factors: a) level of political will reflected by resource prioritisation; b) alignment with national development plans and associated funding priorities; c) level of understanding of strategic benefits by ministers and senior civil servants; d) level of awareness and sensitization of the general public, e) availability of national innovation and entrepreneurial expertise; and f) willingness and capacity to cooperate with other stakeholders to achieve common goals. Future research will capture perspectives from the private, societal and international donor sectors, and create and validate potential models/methodologies to address the challenges and opportunities identified in this study.

  • 30.
    Cunningham, Paul
    et al.
    IIMC / IST-Africa, Ireland.
    Cunningham, Miriam
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. IIMC / IST-Africa, Ireland.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. IIASA, Austria.
    Stakeholder Roles and Potential Models to Support Collaborative Open Innovation in East Africa2015In: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Social Implications of Computers in Developing Countries / [ed] Petter Nielsen, Oslo: University of Oslo , 2015, p. 63-77Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides an analysis of the Innovation Ecosystems for three representative instances in East Africa: Nairobi (Kenya), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Kampala (Uganda). The authors propose that to maximise the impact of innovation systems in a developing country context, innovation interventions (including ICT4D) must (a) facilitate shared, local ownership, with objectives driven by end-user community needs and taking account of previous interventions, good practices and socio-cultural norms; (b) be co-designed, co-created or adapted in consultation with key Innovation Stakeholders; (c) strengthen the capacity of local beneficiary and/or contributing Stakeholders and (d) address sustainability and wider socio-economic impact after the interventions ends. Innovation (including ICT4D interventions) that do not address these issues run the risk of damaging the local Innovation Ecosystem or breaching trust with local stakeholders, by not taking account of local socio-cultural differences or not adequately addressing expectations raised.

  • 31.
    Cöster, Mathias
    et al.
    Uppsala Universitet, Uppsala Sweden.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Gullberg, Cecilia
    Södertörns högskola, Huddinge, Sweden.
    Titlestad, Gard
    Westelius, Alf
    Linköpings universitet.
    Wettergren, Gunnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Digital Transformation: Understanding Business Goals, Risks, Processes, and Decisions2023Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Whilst digitisation is far from a new concept, many assume that simply introducing automation and information systems in various forms will be enough to make their organisation’s operations more efficient. This misconception can often lead to disarray and costly mistakes. Digital Transformation: Understanding Business Goals, Risks, Processes, and Decisions shows how to avoid such issues via careful consideration of what an enterprise really needs.

    Unlike many other books on digital transformation, the authors do not dwell on database design or the details of implementing information systems. Instead, they emphasise the importance of a clear understanding of all aspects of an organisation in order to effectively implement and manage digital systems, from business goals and strategies to structuring information and making decisions, risk assessments, project management, organising, and procuring services and products.

    Organised in eleven chapters, and drawing on examples from all over the world, this book will be of interest to university students of business administration, management, information systems, and computer science, as well as practitioners seeking to better understand how to handle digital transformation in their own organisation.

  • 32. Cöster, Mathias
    et al.
    Westelius, Alf
    Gullberg, Cecilia
    Wettergren, Gunnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Organisering och digitalisering: att skapa värde i det 21:a århundradet2017Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Digitaliseringen gör att förändringar sker allt snabbare. Förändringarna innebär stora möjligheter men lika stora risker. För att kunna utnyttja möjligheterna måste vi anpassa oss. Och vi måste göra det medvetet. Förändringarna ger organisationer bättre förutsättningar än någonsin för att lyckas, men för att lyckas behöver man förstå och utnyttja dem. Vissa klarar det, andra inte. Att digitalisera framgångsrikt är inte enkelt. Den här boken visar hur organisationer skapar värde i en digitaliserad verklighet. Boken går igenom digitalisering med utgångspunkt i vad en organisation egentligen är och vad den behöver. Den spänner över mål, affärsmodeller, strategier, organisering, beslut och projekt. Tyngdpunkten ligger på hur man strukturerar för att få effektivare beslutshantering och mer framgångsrika projektgenomföranden. Eftersom beslut och project är grundpelare för att kunna använda digitaliseringen. Boken lämpar sig särskilt väl för kurser i företagsekonomi, industriell ekonomi och data- och systemvetenskap. Men den vänder sig till alla som vill förstå hur organisationer ska hantera och dra nytta av digitaliseringen.

  • 33. Cöster, Mattias
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Gullberg, Cecilia
    Westelius, Alf
    Wettergren, Gunnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Organisations, Processes, Decisions: Strategies for a Digitised Century2020Book (Other academic)
  • 34.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    A Framework for Categorising and Evaluating Tools for E-democracy2020In: Electronic Journal of e-Government, E-ISSN 1479-439X, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 69-82Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The design of tools and interfaces for e-democracy systems takes place in a highly multidisciplinary context. However, the inter-contextual understanding of democracy is still immature. This article presents a framework suitable for evaluating tools for e-democracy. The framework has been developed based on earlier theories and frameworks and then further evaluated against two test cases: Twitter and BottenAda. The evaluation model builds on the inclusion of different views of e-democracy, not seeing them as conflicting per se but rather making it possible for e-democracy tool users and developers to understand the varying degree of support a tool can display for several aspects of democracy. The model also provides a visualization of complex theories and can thus contribute to a more informed discussion on what types of democratic values are being supported in a particular e-democracy tool.

  • 35.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Programvaruutveckling.
    A Method for Decision and Risk Analysis in Probabilistic and Multiple Criteria Situations2007Patent (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 36.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    A Risk-Based Decision Analytic Approach to Assessing Multi-Stakeholder Policy Problems2013In: Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes / [ed] Aniello Amendola, Tatiana Ermolieva, Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Reinhard Mechler, Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013, p. 231-244Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 37.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    A Robustness Study of State-of-the-Art Surrogate Weights for MCDM2017In: Group Decision and Negotiation, ISSN 0926-2644, E-ISSN 1572-9907, Vol. 26, no 4, p. 677-691Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A vast number of methods for solving multi-criteria decision problems have been suggested for assessing criteria weights requiring more exact input data than users normally are able to provide. In particular, the selection of adequate criteria weights is difficult and in order to be realistic, other methods must be introduced. One class of such methods is to introduce so called surrogate weights, where numerical weights are assigned to each criterion based on a cardinal or ordinal rank ordering, assumed to represent the information extracted from the user. One essential problem is the robustness of such methods. In this article, we compare state-of-the-art methods based on surrogate weights from the literature and, utilising a simulation approach, discuss underlying assumptions and robustness properties. This results in a quantitative measurement of these weighting methods and a methodology applicable also to forthcoming methods.

  • 38.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    An improvement to swing techniques for elicitation in MCDM methods2019In: Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0950-7051, E-ISSN 1872-7409, Vol. 168, p. 70-79Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several approaches that utilise various questioning procedures to elicit criteria weights exist, ranging from direct rating and point allocation to more elaborate methods. However, decision makers often find it difficult to understand how these methods work and how they should be comprehended. This article discusses the SWING family of elicitation techniques and suggests a refined method: the P-SWING method. Based on this, we provide an integrated framework for elicitation, modelling and evaluation of multi-criteria decision problems.

  • 39.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Architectural Considerations for Decision Analysis Software2016In: New Trends in Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques / [ed] Hamido Fujita, George Angelos Papadopoulos, IOS Press, 2016, p. 3-14Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In classic decision theory, it is assumed that a decision-maker can assign precise numerical values corresponding to the true value of each consequence, as well as precise numerical probabilities for their occurrences. However, in real-life situations, the ordering of alternatives from most to least preferred is often a delicate matter and an adequate mathematical representation is crucial. In attempting to address real-life problems, where uncertainty about data prevails, some kind of representation of imprecise information is important and several have been proposed. However, general methods have turned out to be insufficient and we demonstrate in this article that there is not one set of coding techniques that result in the best performing software for decision analysis.

  • 40.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Automatic Criteria Weight Generation for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertainty2020In: Innovation for Systems Information and Decision: Models and Applications / [ed] Adiel Teixeira de Almeida; Danielle Costa Morais, Springer, 2020Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Real-life decision situations almost invariably involve large uncertainties. In particular, there are several difficulties connected with the elicitation of probabilities, utilities, and criteria weights. In this article, we explore and test a robust multi-criteria weight generating method covering a broad set of decision situations, but which still is reasonably simple to use. We cover an important class of methods for criteria weight elicitation and propose the use of a reinterpretation of an efficient family (rank exponent) of methods for modeling and evaluating multi-criteria decision problems under uncertainty. We find that the rank exponent (RX) family generates the most efficient and robust weighs and works very well under different assumptions. Furthermore, It is stable under varying assumptions regarding the decision-makers' mindset and internal modeling. We also provide an example to show how the algorithm can be used in a decision-making context. It is exemplified with a problem of selecting strategies for combatting COVID-19.

  • 41.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Comparing Cardinal and Ordinal Ranking in MCDM Methods2022In: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis / [ed] Adiel Teixeira de Almeida; Love Ekenberg; Philip Scarf; Enrico Zio; Ming J. Zuo, Springer , 2022, p. 29-40Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There are several MCDM methods attempting to elicit criteria weights, ranging from direct rating and point allocation methods to more elaborated ones. To facilitate the weight elicitation, some of the approaches utilize elicitation methods whereby prospects are ranked using ordinal importance information, while others use cardinal information. Methods are sometimes assessed in case studies, or more formally by utilizing systematic simulations. Furthermore, the treatment of corresponding methods for the handling of the alternative’s values has sometimes been neglected. There is a wish for methods with as little cognitive demand as possible, lowering the hurdle to employ such methods at all. In this paper, we explore simplified models mixing cardinal and ordinal statements and demonstrate which of them are more efficient than established methods. It turns out that weights are much more insensitive to cardinality than values, which has implications for all ranking methods.

  • 42.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Programvaruutveckling.
    Computing Upper and Lower Bounds in Interval Decision Trees2007In: European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, E-ISSN 1872-6860, Vol. 181, no 2, p. 808–816-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 43.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Development of Software for Decision Analysis2013In: 12th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques, IEEE Computer Society, 2013, p. 171-177Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To be useful in reality, decision analytical tools must be able to handle imprecise information. This paper presents the algorithmic software design against a background of an evaluation method for analysing decision situations under semi-strong uncertainty. The design is built on a relaxation of the requirement for precise utilities, probabilities, and weights. To handle this, the calculations involved become computationally intensive to match an interactive work flow and the approach required implementation of new algorithms. We describe some particularly interesting implementation aspects of these and show how these computations can be tractable.

  • 44.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Efficient and Sustainable Risk Management in Large Project Portfolios2018In: Perspectives in Business Informatics Research: Proceedings / [ed] Jelena Zdravkovic, Jānis Grabis, Selmin Nurcan, Janis Stirna, Springer, 2018, p. 143-157Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In an ever-increasing competitive business environment, it has become increasingly important to be able to obtain efficient and sustainable business operations not only by efficient core procedures but also by being able to minimise losses incurred by risk taking. The latter by handling both operational risks and financial risks in a unified model. This is important not least in businesses that handle sets of simultaneous large projects, which is the topic of risk handling in project portfolios. In this paper, we present a novel method for business risk handling for project portfolios under strong uncertainty. The method is based on event trees representing each adverse consequence modelled, together with mitigation costs and effects. The aggregation of all consequences for all projects together constitutes the risk portfolio for the business. This method is used in one of Sweden’s largest manufacturing enterprises having a vast portfolio of projects in the form of ongoing tenders for orders.

  • 45.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Meta-Reasoning about Decisions in Autonomous Semi-Intelligent Systems2020In: ISMSI '20: Proceedings of the 2020 4th International Conference on Intelligent Systems, Metaheuristics & Swarm Intelligence, ACM Publications, 2020, p. 42-46Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For intelligent systems to become autonomous in any real sense, they need an ability to make decisions on situations that were not entirely conceived of at compile-time. Machine learning algorithms are excellent in mimicking the behaviour of some gold standard role model, and this can include decision making by the role model. But once out of familiar contexts, the decision making becomes harder and needs an element of more independent probabilistic reasoning and decision making. This paper presents such a method based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise and thus uncertain by means of intervals.

  • 46.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Rank Ordering Methods for Multi-Criteria Decisions2014In: Group Decision and Negotiation. A Process-Oriented View: Proceedings, Springer, 2014, p. -135Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Criteria weights are typically cognitively demanding to elicit and numeric precision is problematic since information in real-life multi-criteria decision making often is imprecise. One important class of methods rank the criteria and receive a criteria ordering which can be handled in various ways by, e.g., converting the resulting ranking into numerical weights, so called surrogate weights. In this article, we analyse the relevance of these methods and to what extent some validation processes are strongly dependent on the simulation assumptions. We also suggest more robust methods as candidates for modelling and analysing multi-criteria decision problems of this kind.

  • 47.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Real-Life Decision-Making2023Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Have you ever experienced a decision situation that was hard to come to grips with? Did you ever feel a need to improve your decision-making skills? Is this something where you feel that you have not learned enough practical and useful methods? In that case, you are not alone! Even though decision-making is both considered and actually is a very important skill in modern work-life as well as in private life, these skills are not to any reasonable extent taught in schools at any level. No wonder many people do indeed feel the need to improve but have a hard time finding out how. This book is an attempt to remedy this shortcoming of our educational systems and possibly also of our common, partly intuition-based, decision culture. Intuition is not at all bad, quite the contrary, but it has to co-exist with rationality. We will show you how. Methods for decision-making should be of prime concern to any individual or organisation, even if the decision processes are not always explicitly or even consciously formulated. All kinds of organisations, as well as individuals, must continuously make decisions of the most varied nature in order to prosper and attain their objectives. A large part of the time spent in any organisation, not least at management levels, is spent gathering, processing, and compiling information for the purpose of making decisions supported by that information. The same interest has hitherto not been shown for individual decision-making, even though large gains would also be obtained at a personal level if important personal decisions were better deliberated. This book aims at changing that and thus attends to both categories of decision-makers. This book will take you through a journey starting with some history of decision-making and analysis and then go through easy-to-learn ways of structuring decision information and methods for analysing the decision situations, beginning with simple decision situations and then moving on to progressively harder ones, but never losing sight of the overarching goal that the reader should be able to follow the progression and being able to carry out similar decision analyses in real-life situations.

  • 48.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, , .
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Software Development of Linear Programming Algorithms for Decision Analysis Applications2011In: Journal of Communication and Computer, ISSN 1548-7709, no 8, p. 793-806Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 49.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
    Space-Time Trade-Off in Decision Analysis Software2018In: New Trends in Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques / [ed] Hamido Fujita, Enrique Herrera-Viedma, IOS Press, 2018, p. 251-258Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In decision analysis, there are several problems with the assignment of precise numbers to decision components, such as probabilities, values and weighs. These can very seldom realistically be estimated. Therefore, various alternative approaches have been suggested over the years, such as interval, capacity and ranking models. The more general of these are however problematical from several computational viewpoints and in this article, we deal with the server-side issues when converting the application from a stand-alone PC program to a server-client decision analytical software. On a server with a large number of users, space requirements become paramount as opposed to a single user on a PC. On a PC, matrices can be explicitly stored in memory, while on a server, to save space, matrices might have to be stored in an implicit (compacted) way, leading to space-time trade-offs.

  • 50.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    The Car Method for using Preference Strength in Multi-Criteria Decision Making2016In: Group Decision and Negotiation, ISSN 0926-2644, E-ISSN 1572-9907, Vol. 25, no 4, p. 775-797Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods have been around for quite some time. However, the elicitation of preference information in MCDA processes, and in particular the lack of practical means supporting it, is still a significant problem in real-life applications of MCDA. There is obviously a need for methods that neither require formal decision analysis knowledge, nor are too cognitively demanding by forcing people to express unrealistic precision or to state more than they are able to. We suggest a method, the CAR method, which is more accessible than our earlier approaches in the field while trying to balance between the need for simplicity and the requirement of accuracy. CAR takes primarily ordinal knowledge into account, but, still recognizing that there is sometimes a quite substantial information loss involved in ordinality, we have conservatively extended a pure ordinal scale approach with the possibility to supply more information. Thus, the main idea here is not to suggest a method or tool with a very large or complex expressibility, but rather to investigate one that should be sufficient in most situations, and in particular better, at least in some respects, than some hitherto popular ones from the SMART family as well as AHP, which we demonstrate in a set of simulation studies as well as a large end-user study.

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