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  • 1.
    Biggs, Reinette
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Biggs, Duan
    Bohensky, Erin L.
    BurnSilver, Shauna
    Cundill, Georgina
    Dakos, Vasilis
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of East Anglia, United Kingdom.
    Evans, Louisa S.
    Kotschy, Karen
    Leitch, Anne M.
    Meek, Chanda
    Quinlan, Allyson
    Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
    Robards, Martin D.
    Schoon, Michael L.
    Schultz, Lisen
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    West, Paul C.
    Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of Ecosystem Services2012In: Annual Review Environment and Resources, ISSN 1543-5938, E-ISSN 1545-2050, Vol. 37, p. 421-448Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical for meeting current and future societal needs, and requires specific governance and management policies. Using the literature, we identify seven generic policy-relevant principles for enhancing the resilience of desired ES in the face of disturbance and ongoing change in social-ecological systems (SES). These principles are (P1) maintain diversity and redundancy, (P2) manage connectivity, (P3) manage slow variables and feedbacks, (P4) foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems (CAS), (P5) encourage learning and experimentation, (P6) broaden participation, and (P7) promote polycentric governance systems. We briefly define each principle, review how and when it enhances the resilience of ES, and conclude with major research gaps. In practice, the principles often co-occur and are highly interdependent. Key future needs are to better understand these interdependencies and to operationalize and apply the principles in different policy and management contexts.

  • 2. Daedlow, Katrin
    et al.
    Beckmann, Volker
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Arlinghaus, Robert
    Explaining institutional persistence, adaptation, and transformation in East German recreational-fisheries governance after the German reunification in 19902013In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 96, p. 36-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigated the capacity of a natural resource governance system to absorb a disturbance while maintaining its major structures and functions (defined as institutional resilience). Exemplified by East German recreational fisheries governance being disturbed by the German reunification, we studied why in five out of six East German states the former centralized governance system persisted while in one state a decentralized governance system was implemented. Based on resilience thinking and new institutional economics, three analytical steps were developed to assess: (1) the structure and function of the governance system, (2) the attributes of the disturbance and the reorganization process, and (3) human motivations. The centralized system persisted because leading managers wanted to preserve customary structures and functions, minimize transaction costs of change, and maintain powerful positions. This was possible because of their influential positions in the reorganization process. Our results suggest that in externally induced, fundamental, and rapid disturbances decision-makers tend to prevent transformations in their governance system. However, key managers in the sixth state faced the same disturbance but their lack of leadership and an emerging rivalry for fishing rights facilitated a transformation to decentralized governance. Thus, attributes of disturbances can be leveraged by actors' motivations in the reorganization process.

  • 3.
    Elsler, Laura G.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Drohan, Sarah E.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Levin, Simon A.
    Local, Global, Multi-Level: Market Structure and Multi-Species Fishery Dynamics2019In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 156, p. 185-195Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Price and market structures in fisheries change rapidly, now 40% of seafood is traded internationally and are associated with overharvesting of marine species. We have developed a bio-economic fishery model to address the pressing need of managing the interplay of different markets. We first regard local, multi-level and global markets individually and then analyze the effect of transitioning between markets on the exploitation of species and the stability of income. We find that in gradually globalizing markets, transition management needs to account for non-linear price changes since earlier policies may not be suitable after globalization. We hypothesize that short-term policies to ban harvest in the interest of species recovery benefit a local market in which incentives prevent overharvesting. In global markets we expect that sustained initiatives are needed to prevent overharvesting. Individual fisheries using contextualized models representing local ecological and trade structures may benefit from assessing the price dynamics presented in this analysis.

  • 4.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Akorbirshoeva, Anzurat
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The effects of development interventions on coevolved practices in biocultural landscapesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Baht, a festive porridge prepared for the Persian New Year in the Pamir Mountains is made from a sweet variety of red wheat, Rashtak, which grows only in the high reaches of its most remote valley. The relationship between ecology and culture in landscapes like the Pamirs runs deep, with everyday practices and rituals having co-evolved with the harsh environment over millennia. Such tightly intertwined biocultural landscapes are, however, often among the world’s poorest and thus are particularly subject to external development interventions. This paper investigates the effects of a particular development intervention, the introduction of an improved wheat seed, on everyday traditional practices and the rituals that maintain them. The intervention contributed towards the near extinction of Rashtak, along with many other traditional seed varieties. Using Norgaard’s coevolutionary framework we analyse the changes in relations between ecology and society resulting from diverse community responses to the intervention. We observe that rituals, which emerge from successful everyday practices, can provide a valuable entry point to understanding co-evolutionary processes in biocultural landscapes. Through participatory observation in two villages, specifically around the practices of food preparation, we examine contrasting responses to the introduced seed in the context of larger-scale development in the region. Our findings show how in one village, Rashtak has been lost but the ritual of baht remains, though the daily practices and social-ecological relationships linked to the ritual have been strongly altered. In the other community, the new ‘improved’ seed was only cultivated on small areas of land in a process of trial and error and farmers maintained their traditional varieties alongside the new seed. Thereby, the rituals around baht remain deeply rooted in social-ecological relationships that have been maintained over the years. The paper describes innovative individual responses to development interventions in everyday life in both communities and finds that some can be important sources of resilience. For example, in the community that lost Rashtak, along with many other local seeds, the knowledge around how to cultivate the land is maintained in a ‘harvest dance’ choreographed and taught be a local school teacher. Rituals, as a repository of social memory, can play an important role in development processes whilst maintaining important social-ecological relationships for future resilience. A deeper understanding of coevolutionary processes in a landscape may help develop approaches for identifying and harnessing endogenous responses to local, regional and global change and help empower more appropriate and effective development pathways.

  • 5.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Traps and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas: A Review2018In: World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, E-ISSN 1873-5991, Vol. 101, p. 311-321Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of a poverty trap—commonly understood as a self-reinforcing situation beneath an asset threshold—has been very influential in describing the persistence of poverty and the relationship between poverty and sustainability. Although traps, and the dynamics that lead to traps, are defined and used differently in different disciplines, the concept of a poverty trap has been most powerfully shaped by work in development economics. This perspective is often constraining because, as many studies show, poverty arises from complex interactions between social and environmental factors that are rarely considered in development economics. A more integrated understanding of poverty traps can help to understand the interrelations between persistent poverty and key social and ecological factors, facilitating more effective development interventions. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical appraisal of existing trap conceptualizations in different disciplines, and to assess the characteristics and mechanisms that are used to explain poverty traps in rural contexts, thereby broadening the traps concept to better account for social-ecological interactions. Complementarities and tensions among different disciplinary perspectives on traps are identified, and our results demonstrate that different definitions of traps share a set of common characteristics: persistence, undesirability, and self-reinforcement. Yet these minimum conditions are not sufficient to understand how trap dynamics arise from complex social-ecological interactions. To broaden the utility of the concept we propose a more social-ecologically integrated definition of traps that includes four additional considerations: cross-scale interactions, path dependencies, the role of external drivers, and social-ecological diversity. Including these wider dimensions of trap dynamics would help to better account for the diverse social-ecological feedbacks that produce and maintain poverty traps, and could strengthen strategies to alleviate poverty in a more integrated way.

  • 6.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Neusel, Benjamin
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Past management affects success of current joint forestry management institutions in Tajikistan2019In: Environment, Development and Sustainability, ISSN 1387-585X, E-ISSN 1573-2975, Vol. 21, no 5, p. 2183-2224Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the Pamir Mountains of Eastern Tajikistan, the clearance of mountain forests to provide fuelwood for an increasing population is a major source of environmental degradation. International development organisations have implemented joint forestry management institutions to help restore once-forested mountainous regions, but the success of these institutions has been highly variable. This study uses a multi-method approach, drawing on institutional analysis supported by Elinor Ostrom's design principles and social-ecological system framework in combination with resilience thinking to help understand why some communities in Tajikistan manage their forests more sustainably than others. The application of the design principles provided helpful guidance for practitioners implementing joint forestry management. The social-ecological system analysis revealed both 'history of use' and 'tenant density' as positively associated with forest condition. However, we also identify limitations of snapshot social-ecological assessments. In particular, we illustrate the critical importance of considering historical legacy effects, such as externally imposed centralised governance regimes (that characterise many post-Soviet states) in attempts to understand current management practices. Our work shows how a more nuanced understanding of institutional change and inertia can be achieved by adopting a resilience approach to institutional analysis, focusing on the importance of reorganisation. Lessons learned from our analysis should be widely applicable to common pool resource management in other semi-arid forested landscapes as well as in regions with a strong centralised governance legacy.

  • 7.
    Hertz, Tilman
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The SES-Framework as boundary object to address theory orientation in social-ecological system research: The SES-TheOr approach2015In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 116, p. 12-24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social-ecological system (SES) research is inherently cross-disciplinary which can create multiple challenges for building knowledge of SES. Some of these challenges relate to differences in ontological commitments due to theory orientation of individual disciplines. Frameworks, understood as boundary objects, have been suggested as tools for dealing with this type of challenge. This paper investigates this capacity of frameworks taking Elinor Ostroms' SES-Framework as an example. To this aim, we developed a generic approach (the SES-TheOr approach) to promote disclosure and bridge differences in ontological commitments in SES research. We then applied it for examining the use of the SES Framework as boundary object within a small cross-disciplinary research team. We found that the SES Framework provided a useful common reference and starting point for discussing variables but could not fully deal with theory orientation. We conclude by suggesting that this may partly arise due to a tension between two competing SES Framework aims: on the one hand bridging differences in ontological commitments, and on the other hand ensuring a comparative function across cases.

  • 8. Hinkel, Jochen
    et al.
    Bots, Pieter W. G.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Enhancing the Ostrom social-ecological system framework through formalization2014In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, no 3, p. 51-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Frameworks play an important role in analyzing social-ecological systems (SESs) because they provide shared concepts and variables that enable comparison between and accumulation of knowledge across multiple cases. One prominent SES framework focusing on local resource use has been developed by Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues. This framework is an extensive multi-tier collection of concepts and variables that have demonstrated relevance for explaining outcomes in a large number of case studies in the context of fishery, water, and forestry common-pool resources. The further development of this framework has raised a number of issues related to the formal relationships between the large number of concepts and variables involved. In particular, issues related to criteria for ordering the concepts into tiers, adding new concepts, defining outcomes metrics, and representing dynamics in the framework have been identified. We address these issues by applying methods from research fields that study formal relationships between concepts such as domain-specific languages, knowledge representation, and software engineering. We find that SES frameworks could include the following seven formal components: variables, concepts, attribution relationships, subsumption relationships, process relationships, aggregation relationships, and evaluation metrics. Applying these components to the Ostrom framework and a case study of recreational fishery, we find that they provide clear criteria for structuring concepts into tiers, defining outcome metrics, and representing dynamics. The components identified are generic, and the insights gained from this exercise may also be beneficial for the development of other SES frameworks.

  • 9. Hinkel, Jochen
    et al.
    Cox, Michael E.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Binder, Claudia R.
    Falk, Thomas
    A diagnostic procedure for applying the social-ecological systems framework in diverse cases2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 1, article id 32Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES) framework of Elinor Ostrom is a multitier collection of concepts and variables that have proven to be relevant for understanding outcomes in diverse SES. The first tier of this framework includes the concepts resource system (RS) and resource units (RU), which are then further characterized through lower tier variables such as clarity of system boundaries and mobility. The long-term goal of framework development is to derive conclusions about which combinations of variables explain outcomes across diverse types of SES. This will only be possible if the concepts and variables of the framework can be made operational unambiguously for the different types of SES, which, however, remains a challenge. Reasons for this are that case studies examine other types of RS than those for which the framework has been developed or consider RS for which different actors obtain different kinds of RU. We explore these difficulties and relate them to antecedent work on common-pool resources and public goods. We propose a diagnostic procedure which resolves some of these difficulties by establishing a sequence of questions that facilitate the step-wise and unambiguous application of the SES framework to a given case. The questions relate to the actors benefiting from the SES, the collective goods involved in the generation of those benefits, and the action situations in which the collective goods are provided and appropriated. We illustrate the diagnostic procedure for four case studies in the context of irrigated agriculture in New Mexico, common property meadows in the Swiss Alps, recreational fishery in Germany, and energy regions in Austria. We conclude that the current SES framework has limitations when applied to complex, multiuse SES, because it does not sufficiently capture the actor interdependencies introduced through RS and RU characteristics and dynamics.

  • 10.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Engström, Gustav
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Resilience offers escape from trapped thinking on poverty alleviation2017In: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 3, no 5, article id 1603043Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The poverty trap concept strongly influences current research and policy on poverty alleviation. Financial or technological inputs intended to push the rural poor out of a poverty trap have had many successes but have also failed unexpectedly with serious ecological and social consequences that can reinforce poverty. Resilience thinking can help to (i) understand how these failures emerge from the complex relationships between humans and the ecosystems on which they depend and (ii) navigate diverse poverty alleviation strategies, such as transformative change, that may instead be required. First, we review commonly observed or assumed social-ecological relationships in rural development contexts, focusing on economic, biophysical, and cultural aspects of poverty. Second, we develop a classification of poverty alleviation strategies using insights from resilience research on social-ecological change. Last, we use these advances to develop stylized, multidimensional poverty trap models. The models show that (i) interventions that ignore nature and culture can reinforce poverty (particularly in agrobiodiverse landscapes), (ii) transformative change can instead open new pathways for poverty alleviation, and (iii) asset inputs may be effective in other contexts (for example, where resource degradation and poverty are tightly interlinked). Our model-based approach and insights offer a systematic way to review the consequences of the causal mechanisms that characterize poverty traps in different agricultural contexts and identify appropriate strategies for rural development challenges.

  • 11.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Quaas, Martin F.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 35, p. 11120-11125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  • 12.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Tavoni, Alessandro
    Levin, Simon A.
    Schluter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Regime shifts in a social-ecological system2013In: Theoretical Ecology, ISSN 1874-1738, E-ISSN 1874-1746, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 359-372Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecological regime shifts are rarely purely ecological. Not only is the regime shift frequently triggered by human activity, but the responses of relevant actors to ecological dynamics are often crucial to the development and even existence of the regime shift. Here, we show that the dynamics of human behaviour in response to ecological changes can be crucial in determining the overall dynamics of the system. We find a social-ecological regime shift in a model of harvesters of a common-pool resource who avoid over-exploitation of the resource by social ostracism of non-complying harvesters. The regime shift, which can be triggered by several different drivers individually or also in combination, consists of a breakdown of the social norm, sudden collapse of co-operation and an over-exploitation of the resource. We use the approach of generalized modeling to study the robustness of the regime shift to uncertainty over the specific forms of model components such as the ostracism norm and the resource dynamics. Importantly, the regime shift in our model does not occur if the dynamics of harvester behaviour are not included in the model. Finally, we sketch some possible early warning signals for the social-ecological regime shifts we observe in the models.

  • 13. Lago, M.
    et al.
    Boteler, B.
    Rouillard, J.
    Abhold, K.
    Jähnig, S. C.
    Iglesias-Campos, A.
    Delacamára, G.
    Piet, G. J.
    Hein, T.
    Nogueira, A. J. A.
    Lillebø, A. I.
    Strosser, P.
    Robinson, L. A.
    De Wever, A.
    O'Higgins, T.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Török, L.
    Reichert, P.
    van Hamo, C.
    Villa, F.
    Hugh, McDonald
    Introducing the H2020 AQUACROSS project: Knowledge, Assessment, and Management for AQUAtic Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aCROSS EU policies2019In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 652, p. 320-329Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The AQUACROSS project was an unprecedented effort to unify policy concepts, knowledge, and management of freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems to support the cost-effective achievement of the targets set by the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020. AQUACROSS aimed to support EU efforts to enhance the resilience and stop the loss of biodiversity of aquatic ecosystems as well as to ensure the ongoing and future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. The project focused on advancing the knowledge base and application of Ecosystem-Based Management. Through elaboration of eight diverse case studies in freshwater and marine and estuarine aquatic ecosystem across Europe covering a range of environmental management problems including, eutrophication, sustainable fisheries as well as invasive alien species AQUACROSS demonstrated the application of a common framework to establish cost-effective measures and integrated Ecosystem-Based Management practices. AQUACROSS analysed the EU policy framework (i.e. goals, concepts, time frames) for aquatic ecosystems and built on knowledge stemming from different sources (i.e. WISE, BISE, Member State reporting within different policy processes, modelling) to develop innovative management tools, concepts, and business models (i.e. indicators, maps, ecosystem assessments, participatory approaches, mechanisms for promoting the delivery of ecosystem services) for aquatic ecosystems at various scales of space and time and relevant to different ecosystem types.

  • 14.
    Lindkvist, Emilie
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Basurto, Xavier
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Micro-level explanations for emergent patterns of self-governance arrangements in small-scale fisheries—A modeling approach2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 4, p. 1-23, article id e0175532Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries are expected to play a significant role in poverty alleviation and enhancing food security in the decades to come. To realize this expectation, a better understanding of their informal self-governance arrangements is critical for developing policies that can improve fishers’ livelihoods and lead to sustainable ecosystem stewardship. The goal of this paper is to develop a more nuanced understanding of micro-level factors—such as fishers’ characteristics and behavior—to explain observed differences in self-governance arrangements in Northwest Mexico. We focus on two ubiquitous forms of self-governance: hierarchical non-cooperative arrangements between fishers and fishbuyers, such as patron-client relationships (PCs), versus more cooperative arrangements amongst fishers, such as fishing cooperatives (co-ops). We developed an agent-based model of an archetypical SSF that captures key hypotheses from in-depth fieldwork in Northwest Mexico of fishers’ day-to-day fishing and trading. Results from our model indicate that high diversity in fishers’ reliability, and low initial trust between co-op members, makes co-ops’ establishment difficult. PCs cope better with this kind of diversity because, in contrast to co-ops, they have more flexibility in choosing whom to work with. However, once co-ops establish, they cope better with seasonal variability in fish abundance and provide long-term security for the fishers. We argue that existing levels of trust and diversity among fishers matter for different self-governance arrangements to establish and persist, and should therefore be taken into account when developing better, targeted policies for improved SSFs governance.

  • 15. Lippe, Melvin
    et al.
    Bithell, Mike
    Gotts, Nick
    Natalini, Davide
    Barbrook-Johnson, Peter
    Giupponi, Carlo
    Hallier, Mareen
    Hofstede, Gert Jan
    Le Page, Christophe
    Matthews, Robin B.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Smith, Peter
    Teglio, Andrea
    Thellmann, Kevin
    Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales2019In: Geoinformatica, ISSN 1384-6175, E-ISSN 1573-7624, Vol. 23, no 2, p. 269-298Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agent-based modelling (ABM) simulates Social-Ecological-Systems (SESs) based on the decision-making and actions of individual actors or actor groups, their interactions with each other, and with ecosystems. Many ABM studies have focused at the scale of villages, rural landscapes, towns or cities. When considering a geographical, spatially-explicit domain, current ABM architecture is generally not easily translatable to a regional or global context, nor does it acknowledge SESs interactions across scales sufficiently; the model extent is usually determined by pragmatic considerations, which may well cut across dynamical boundaries. With a few exceptions, the internal structure of governments is not included when representing them as agents. This is partly due to the lack of theory about how to represent such as actors, and because they are not static over the time-scales typical for social changes to have significant effects. Moreover, the relevant scale of analysis is often not known a priori, being dynamically determined, and may itself vary with time and circumstances. There is a need for ABM to cross the gap between micro-scale actors and larger-scale environmental, infrastructural and political systems in a way that allows realistic spatial and temporal phenomena to emerge; this is vital for models to be useful for policy analysis in an era when global crises can be triggered by small numbers of micro-level actors. We aim with this thought-piece to suggest conceptual avenues for implementing ABM to simulate SESs across scales, and for using big data from social surveys, remote sensing or other sources for this purpose.

  • 16.
    Martin, Romina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling to analyze social-ecological interactions - an example from modeling restoration of a shallow lake2015In: Frontiers in Environmental Science, ISSN 2296-665X, Vol. 3, no 66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Modeling social-ecological interactions between humans and ecosystems to analyze their implications for sustainable management of social-ecological systems (SES) has multiple challenges. When integrating social and ecological dynamics, which are often studied separately, one has to deal with different modeling paradigms, levels of analysis, temporal and spatial scales, and data availabilities in the social and ecological domains. A major challenge, for instance, is linking the emergent patterns from individual micro-level human decisions to system level processes such as reinforcing feedbacks determining the state of the ecosystem. We propose building a hybrid model that combines a system dynamics with an agent-based approach to address some of these challenges. In particular, we present a procedure for model development and analysis that successively builds up complexity and understanding of model dynamics, particular with respect to feedbacks between the social and ecological system components. The proposed steps allow for a systematic increase of the coupling between the submodels and building confidence in the model before deploying it to study the coupled dynamics. The procedure consists of steps for (i) specifying the characteristics of the link between the social and ecological systems, (ii) validating the decoupled submodels, (iii) doing sensitivity analysis of the decoupled submodels with respect to the drivers from the respective other subsystem and, finally (iv) analyzing the coupled model. We illustrate the procedure and discuss opportunities and limitations of hybrid models against the background of an archetypical SES case study, namely the restoration of a turbid lake. Our approach exemplifies how a hybrid model is used to unpack SES complexity and analyze interactions between ecological dynamics and micro-level human actions. We discuss the benefits and challenges of combining a system dynamics models as an aggregated view with an agent-based model as a disaggregated view to improve social-ecological system understanding.

  • 17. Meyfroid, P.
    et al.
    Chowdhury, R. Roy
    de Bremond, A.
    Ellis, E. C.
    Erb, K-H.
    Filatova, T.
    Garrett, R. D.
    Grove, J. M.
    Heinimann, A.
    Kuemmerle, T.
    Kull, C. A.
    Lambin, E. F.
    Landon, Y.
    de Warow, Y. le Polain
    Messerli, P.
    Mueller, D.
    Nielsen, J. O.
    Peterson, Gary D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Garcia, V. Rodriguez
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Turner, B. L.
    Verburg, P. H.
    Middle-range theories of land system change2018In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 53, p. 52-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories - defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains -, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems.

  • 18. Mueller, Birgit
    et al.
    Bohn, Friedrich
    Dressler, Gunnar
    Groeneveld, Juergen
    Klassert, Christian
    Martin, Romina
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Schulze, Jule
    Weise, Hanna
    Schwarz, Nina
    Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD plus D, an extension of the ODD protocol2013In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 48, p. 37-48Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Representing human decisions is of fundamental importance in agent-based models. However, the rationale for choosing a particular human decision model is often not sufficiently empirically or theoretically substantiated in the model documentation. Furthermore, it is difficult to compare models because the model descriptions are often incomplete, not transparent and difficult to understand. Therefore, we expand and refine the 'ODD' (Overview, Design Concepts and Details) protocol to establish a standard for describing ABMs that includes human decision-making (ODD + D). Because the ODD protocol originates mainly from an ecological perspective, some adaptations are necessary to better capture human decision-making. We extended and rearranged the design concepts and related guiding questions to differentiate and describe decision-making, adaptation and learning of the agents in a comprehensive and clearly structured way. The ODD + D protocol also incorporates a section on 'Theoretical and Empirical Background' to encourage model designs and model assumptions that are more closely related to theory. The application of the ODD + D protocol is illustrated with a description of a social ecological ABM on water use. Although the ODD + D protocol was developed on the basis of example implementations within the socio-ecological scientific community, we believe that the ODD + D protocol may prove helpful for describing ABMs in general when human decisions are included.

  • 19. Müller, Birgit
    et al.
    Balbi, Stefano
    Buchmann, Carsten M.
    de Sousa, Luis
    Dressler, Gunnar
    Groeneveld, Jürgen
    Klassert, Christian J.
    Le, Quang Bao
    Millington, James D. A.
    Nolzen, Henning
    Parker, Dawn C.
    Polhill, J. Gary
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schulze, Jule
    Schwarz, Nina
    Sun, Zhanli
    Taillandier, Patrick
    Weise, Hanna
    Standardised and transparent model descriptions for agent-based models: Current status and prospects2014In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 55, p. 156-163Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agent-based models are helpful to investigate complex dynamics in coupled human natural systems. However, model assessment, model comparison and replication are hampered to a large extent by a lack of transparency and comprehensibility in model descriptions. In this article we address the question of whether an ideal standard for describing models exists. We first suggest a classification for structuring types of model descriptions. Secondly, we differentiate purposes for which model descriptions are important. Thirdly, we review the types of model descriptions and evaluate each on their utility for the purposes. Our evaluation finds that the choice of the appropriate model description type is purpose-dependent and that no single description type alone can fulfil all requirements simultaneously. However, we suggest a minimum standard of model description for good modelling practice, namely the provision of source code and an accessible natural language description, and argue for the development of a common standard.

  • 20. Müller-Hansen, Finn
    et al.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mäs, Michael
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.
    Kolb, Jakob J.
    Thonicke, Kirsten
    Heitzig, Jobst
    Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches2017In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 977-1007Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  • 21.
    Norström, Albert V.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dannenberg, Astrid
    McCarney, Geoff
    Milkoreit, Manjana
    Diekert, Florian
    Engström, Gustav
    Fishman, Ram
    Gars, Johan
    Kyriakopoolou, Efthymia
    Manoussi, Vassiliki
    Meng, Kyle
    Metian, Marc
    Sanctuary, Mark
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schoon, Michael
    Schultz, Lisen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Sjöstedt, Martin
    Three necessary conditions for establishing effective Sustainable Development Goals in the Anthropocene2014In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, no 3, p. 8-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the United Nations-guided process to establish Sustainable Development Goals is to galvanize governments and civil society to rise to the interlinked environmental, societal, and economic challenges we face in the Anthropocene. We argue that the process of setting Sustainable Development Goals should take three key aspects into consideration. First, it should embrace an integrated social-ecological system perspective and acknowledge the key dynamics that such systems entail, including the role of ecosystems in sustaining human wellbeing, multiple cross-scale interactions, and uncertain thresholds. Second, the process needs to address trade-offs between the ambition of goals and the feasibility in reaching them, recognizing biophysical, social, and political constraints. Third, the goal-setting exercise and the management of goal implementation need to be guided by existing knowledge about the principles, dynamics, and constraints of social change processes at all scales, from the individual to the global. Combining these three aspects will increase the chances of establishing and achieving effective Sustainable Development Goals.

  • 22.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Duit, Andreas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Sustainability of natural resource governance under interest group competition in policy makingManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Non-state actors play an increasingly important role in environmental policy processes. Lobbying activities of interest groups have often been associated with policy stasis and environmental degradation. Little is known, however, about the causal mechanisms through which competition between diverse interest groups can enhance or reduce the adaptive capacity of a governance system. By combining an empirical study with agent-based modelling we explore competing interest group behavior and its implications for responses of the policy system to perceived changes in a fishery. We find that interest group coalition formation as a response to changes in the resource allows the policy system to better respond to resource decline. This mechanism, however, is highly contingent on the distribution of funding among interest groups, issue salience and characteristics of the political system (beliefs of policymakers). Testing the mechanism of interest group influence on policy change allows us to better understand the conditions under which environmental policymaking involving diverse interests and strong (economic/industry) pressure can avoid resource overexploitation.

  • 23.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Uncovering the political dimension of social-ecological systems: Contributions from policy process frameworks2016In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 40, p. 13-25Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Research on the governance of social-ecological systems often emphasizes the need for self-organized, flexible and adaptive arrangements to deal with uncertainty, abrupt change and surprises that are characteristic of social-ecological systems. However, adaptive governance as well as transitions toward alternative forms of governance are embedded in politics and it is often the political processes that determine change and stability in governance systems and policy. This paper analyses five established theoretical frameworks of the policy process originating in political science and public policy research with respect to their potential to enhance understanding of governance and complex policy dynamics in social-ecological systems. The frameworks are found to be divergent in their conceptualization of policy change (focusing on incremental or large-scale, major changes), highlighting different aspects of bounded rationality in their model of individual behavior and focusing their attention on different aspects of the policy process (role of information, attention, beliefs, institutional structure, particular actors, etc.). We discuss the application of these frameworks and their potential contribution, to unravelling the political dimension in adaptive governance and transformations.

  • 24.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Tracing a pathway to success: How competing interest groups influenced the 2013 EU Common Fisheries Policy reform2017In: Environmental Science and Policy, ISSN 1462-9011, E-ISSN 1873-6416, Vol. 76, p. 90-102Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Adaptation of environmental policies to often unexpected crises is an important function of sustainable governance arrangements. However the relationship between environmental change and policy is complicated. Much research has focused on understanding institutional dynamics or the role of specific participants in the policy process. This paper draws attention to interest groups and the mechanism through which they influence policy change. Existing research offers conflicting evidence in regards to the different ways in which interest groups may affect change. This paper provides an in-depth study of the 2013 European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform a policy change characterized by active interest group participation. It traces the activity of interest group coalitions to understand how they achieved influence under a changing policy context. The study involves interviews with interest group representatives, policy experts and decision-makers, document analysis of interest group statements and EU legislative documents. Findings identify the important role of coalition building and informational lobbying for environmental interest group success in exploiting favorable sociopolitical conditions and influencing reform outcomes. An insight on interest group influence and its conditions contributes to our understanding of the complex dynamics of the environmental policy process as well as its implications for policy adaptation to environmental change.

  • 25.
    Orach, Kirill
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Interests Influencing Information? Analyzing interest group contribution to information flows in EU Common Fisheries PolicyManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Information and knowledge is important for sustainably managing natural resources. Uncertainty and lack of information can lead to inability to identify and manage complex social-ecological feedbacks and slow change. However scientific information and knowledge, even when present, does not always find its way to policy and when it does – may fail to make any impact. Public policy researchers often stress the ever-present ambiguity, time constraints, lack of access and issue framing as some of the reasons why policy-relevant information may be misinterpreted or ignored. Resilience research recognizes the importance of participation of the broad diversity of stakeholders in the policy process for allowing a broader diversity of knowledge to influence decision-making and better detect and respond to environmental change. Organizing to influence policy, stakeholders may form interest groups that often engage in supplying information to policymakers as one of the ways to influence policy outcomes. Although interest groups undoubtedly contribute to the information flow within the policy process, it is unclear whether they contribute to the diversity of available information or are able to strengthen the link between scientific information and decision-making. Previous empirical research shows that agencies with own capacity to generate own information may ignore organized interests, while the quality and diversity of information provided by interest groups may vary significantly. This paper looks at the case of 2013 EU Common Fisheries Policy reform in order to find how interest group actors have contributed to the flow of issue-relevant information supplied to policymakers during the critical stages of the reform. It analyses interest group position papers, letters and briefings as well as interviews with interest group representatives and policymakers in order to assess the type of information supplied, its source, framing and recipients, aiming to get a broader picture of interest groups’ contribution. The paper finds that interest groups have been using informational lobbying as one of their main strategies during the reform process. Most interest groups have frequently used scientific information, already available to policymakers, in order to support their own framing of the issue.

  • 26. Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    et al.
    Arthington, Angela
    Bogardi, Janos
    Bunn, Stuart E.
    Hoff, Holger
    Lebel, Louis
    Nikitina, Elena
    Palmer, Margaret
    Poff, LeRoy N.
    Richards, Keith
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schulze, Roland
    St-Hilaire, Andre
    Tharme, Rebecca
    Tockner, Klement
    Tsegai, Daniel
    Environmental flows and water governance: managing sustainable water uses2013In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN 1877-3435, E-ISSN 1877-3443, Vol. 5, no 3-4, p. 341-351Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human water security is often achieved with little consideration of environmental consequences and, even when these are acknowledged, the trade-offs between human and environmental water needs are increasing in frequency and amplitude on the increase. The environmental flows concept has continued to evolve in response to these challenges. However, the field is characterized by a limited transferability of insights, due to the prevalence of specific case-study analyses and a lack of research on the governance of environmental flows. Building on recent advances in environmental flow science, water governance and management, we identify a clear need for a more systematic approach to the determination of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) on both the natural and social science fronts and, in particular, on the interaction between social/political and environmental systems. We suggest a framework that details as to how these advances and interactions can be achieved. The framework supports scientific analysis and practical implementation of EFRs involving systematic compilation, sharing and evaluation of experiences from different riverine ecosystems and governance systems around the globe. The concept of ecosystem services is introduced into the framework to raise awareness for the importance of ecosystem functions for the resilience of social-ecological systems, to support negotiation of trade-offs and development of strategies for adaptive implementation. Experience in implementation of environmental flow policies reveals the need for an engaged, transdisciplinary research approach where research is closely linked to implementation initiatives on the ground. We advocate that this is more effective at building the foundations for sustainable water management.

  • 27. Polhill, J. Gary
    et al.
    Filatova, Tatiana
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Voinov, Alexey
    Modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems2016In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 75, p. 318-332Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abrupt systemic changes in ecological and socio-economic systems are a regular occurrence. While there has been much attention to studying systemic changes primarily in ecology as well as in economics, the attempts to do so for coupled socio-environmental systems are rarer. This paper bridges the gap by reviewing how models can be instrumental in exploring significant, fundamental changes in such systems. The history of modelling systemic change in various disciplines contains a range of definitions and approaches. Even so, most of these efforts share some common challenges within the modelling context. We propose a framework drawing these challenges together, and use it to discuss the articles in this thematic issue on modelling systemic change in coupled social and environmental systems. The differing approaches used highlight that modelling systemic change is an area of endeavour that would benefit from greater synergies between the various disciplines concerned with systemic change.

  • 28.
    Schill, Caroline
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Wijermans, Nanda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Cooperation Is Not Enough - Exploring Social-Ecological Micro-Foundations for Sustainable Common-Pool Resource Use2016In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 11, no 8, article id e0157796Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cooperation amongst resource users holds the key to overcoming the social dilemma that characterizes community-based common-pool resource management. But is cooperation alone enough to achieve sustainable resource use? The short answer is no. Developing management strategies in a complex social-ecological environment also requires ecological knowledge and approaches to deal with perceived environmental uncertainty. Recent behavioral experimental research indicates variation in the degree to which a group of users can identify a sustainable exploitation level. In this paper, we identify social-ecological micro-foundations that facilitate cooperative sustainable common-pool resource use. We do so by using an agent-based model (ABM) that is informed by behavioral common-pool resource experiments. In these experiments, groups that cooperate do not necessarily manage the resource sustainably, but also over- or underexploit. By reproducing the patterns of the behavioral experiments in a qualitative way, the ABM represents a social-ecological explanation for the experimental observations. We find that the ecological knowledge of each group member cannot sufficiently explain the relationship between cooperation and sustainable resource use. Instead, the development of a sustainable exploitation level depends on the distribution of ecological knowledge among the group members, their influence on each other's knowledge, and the environmental uncertainty the individuals perceive. The study provides insights about critical social-ecological micro-foundations underpinning collective action and sustainable resource management. These insights may inform policy-making, but also point to future research needs regarding the mechanisms of social learning, the development of shared management strategies and the interplay of social and ecological uncertainty.

  • 29.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Baeza, Andres
    Dressler, Gunnar
    Frank, Karin
    Groeneveld, Jürgen
    Jager, Wander
    Janssen, Marco A.
    McAllister, Ryan R. J.
    Müller, Birgit
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schwarz, Nina
    Wijermans, Nanda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems2017In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 131, p. 21-35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Formal models are commonly used in natural resource management (NRM) to study human-environment interactions and inform policy making. In the majority of applications, human behaviour is represented by the rational actor model despite growing empirical evidence of its shortcomings in NRM contexts. While the importance of accounting for the complexity of human behaviour is increasingly recognized, its integration into formal models remains a major challenge. The challenges are multiple: i) there exist many theories scattered across the social sciences, ii) most theories cover only a certain aspect of decision-making, iii) they vary in their degree of formalization, iv) causal mechanisms are often not specified. We provide a framework- MoHuB (Modelling Human Behavior) - to facilitate a broader inclusion of theories on human decision-making in formal NRM models. It serves as a tool and common language to describe, compare and communicate alternative theories. In doing so, we not only enhance understanding of commonalities and differences between theories, but take a first step towards tackling the challenges mentioned above. This approach may enable modellers to find and formalize relevant theories, and be more explicit and inclusive about theories of human decision making in the analysis of social ecological systems.

  • 30.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Lindkvist, Emilie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Martin, Romina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wijermans, Nanda
    Univ Stockholm, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Capturing emergent phenomena in social-ecological systems: an analytical framework2019In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 24, no 3, article id 11Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social-ecological systems (SES) are complex adaptive systems. Social-ecological system phenomena, such as regime shifts, transformations, or traps, emerge from interactions among and between human and nonhuman entities within and across scales. Analyses of SES phenomena thus require approaches that can account for (1) the intertwinedness of social and ecological processes and (2) the ways they jointly give rise to emergent social-ecological patterns, structures, and dynamics that feedback on the entities and processes that generated them. We have developed a framework of linked action situations (AS) as a tool to capture those interactions that are hypothesized to have jointly and dynamically generated a social-ecological phenomenon of interest. The framework extends the concept of an action situation to provide a conceptualization of SES that focusses on social-ecological interactions and their links across levels. The aim of our SE-AS (social-ecological action situations) framework is to support a process of developing hypotheses about configurations of ASs that may explain an emergent social-ecological phenomenon. We suggest six social-ecological ASs along with social and ecological action situations that can commonly be found in natural resource or ecosystem management contexts. We test the ability of the framework to structure an analysis of processes of emergence by applying it to different case studies of regime shifts, traps, and sustainable resource use. The framework goes beyond existing frameworks and approaches, such as the SES framework or causal loop diagrams, by establishing a way of analyzing SES that focuses on the interplay of social-ecological interactions with the emergent outcomes they produce. We conclude by discussing the added value of the framework and discussing the different purposes it can serve: from supporting the development of theories of the emergence of social-ecological phenomena, enhancing transparency of SES understandings to serving as a boundary object for interdisciplinary knowledge integration.

  • 31.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Hinkel, Jochen
    Bots, Pieter W. G.
    Arlinghaus, Robert
    Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems2014In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostrom's general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise procedure for applying SESF to identify variables and their relationships relevant for an analysis of the SES. In doing so we demonstrate how the hierarchy of concepts in SESF and the identification of social-ecological processes using the newly introduced process relationships can help to unpack the system in a systematic and transparent way. We test the procedure by applying it to develop a dynamic model of decision making in the management of recreational fisheries. The added value of the common framework lies in the guidance it provides for (1) a structured approach to identifying major variables and the level of detail needed, and (2) a procedure that enhances model transparency by making explicit underlying assumptions and choices made when selecting variables and their interactions as well as the theories or empirical evidence on which they are based. Both aspects are of great relevance when dealing with the complexity of SES and integrating conceptual backgrounds from different disciplines. We discuss the advantages and difficulties of the application of SESF for model development, and contribute to its further refinement.

  • 32.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. UFZ Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, Germany.
    Khasankhanova, Gulchekhra
    Talskikh, Vladislav
    Taryannikova, Raisa
    Agaltseva, Natalya
    Joldasova, Ilya
    Ibragimov, Rustam
    Abdullaev, Umid
    Enhancing resilience resilience to water flow uncertainty by integrating environmental flows into water management in the Amudarya River, Central Asia2013In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 110, p. 114-129Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The wetlands of the Amudarya River delta in Uzbekistan provide valuable ecosystem services to the local human population which has suffered severely from the loss of the Aral Sea, desertification and the post-soviet socio-economic transition. The region is also particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as a recent severe drought has shown. In this contribution, we assess the potential and implications of incorporating environmental flows into management of the Amudarya River for improving the provision of wetland ecosystem services and enhancing resilience of the social-ecological system to river runoff uncertainty. Our assessment is based on analyses of 1) the current vulnerability of deltaic wetlands to years of low water availability, 2) expected regional climate change and its impact on water flows to the wetlands, and 3) alternative water use options to enhance environmental flows under a changing climate. The results provide a ranking of these options with respect to their benefits for the provision of environmental flows and implications for agriculture. Their realization, however, poses challenges that cannot be tackled by technical interventions of redistribution and efficiency increase alone but call for institutional changes and moves towards multi-purpose water use. The diversification of impacts and livelihood options would allow enhancing the resilience of the social-ecological system to climate or socio-politically induced changes in water flow. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 33.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindkvist, Emilie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Basurto, Xavier
    Transformation Towards Cooperative Governance Arrangements in Small-Scale Fisheries — Moving Out of the Patron-client TrapManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Transforming marine social-ecological systems, particularly small-scale fisheries (SSF) towards sustainable governance is critical for food security, poverty alleviation and sustainability. However, achieving such transformations is a major challenge. Many SSF around the world are self-governed through patron-client relationships (PCs) where fishers work with fishbuyers to commercialize their catch. These informal arrangements which are very persistent have often been associated with overexploitation of the resource. In this paper we explore opportunities for an intentional transformation of an SSF towards more sustainable cooperative self-governance through financial and social interventions. We apply an agent-based model of a prototypical SSF that synthesizes a vast body of knowledge about SSF in Mexico to analyze the dynamics of self-organization in a fishing community. Our explorations reveal that financial support during the formation of a cooperative is not sufficient for their establishment in a community dominated by fishbuyers. It requires repeated support also in form of trust-building measures to strengthen cooperatives such that they can cope with fluctuations in resource abundance and free-riding of their members. The combination of financial with social interventions increases the likelihood that cooperatives survive over longer periods of time, particularly under a stochastic social and ecological environment and become the dominant form of social organization. The findings indicate that it is necessary to understand the interplay between social (e.g. the dynamics of trust) and ecological (e.g. resource dynamics) dynamics in order to identify the type and frequency of interventions needed to enable a transformation of a locked-in social-ecological system.

  • 34.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Müller, Birgit
    Frank, Karin
    The potential of models and modeling for social-ecological systems research: the reference frame ModSES2019In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 24, no 1, article id 31Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamic models have long been a common tool to support management of ecological and economic systems and played a prominent role in the early days of resilience research. Model applications have largely focused on policy assessment, the development of optimal management strategies, or analysis of system stability. However, modeling can serve many other purposes such as understanding system responses that emerge from complex interactions of system components, supporting participatory processes, and analyzing consequences of human behavioral complexity. The diversity of purposes, types, and applications of models offers great potential for social-ecological systems (SESs) research, but has created much confusion because modeling approaches originate from different disciplines, are based on different assumptions, focus on different levels of analysis, and use different analytical methods. This diversity makes it difficult to identify which approach is most suitable for addressing a specific question. Here, our aims are: (1) to introduce the most common types of dynamic models used in SESs research and related fields, and (2) to align these models with SESs research aims to support the selection and communication of the most suitable approach for a given study. To this end, we organize modeling approaches into a reference scheme called modelling for social-ecological systems research (ModSES) along two dimensions: the degree of realism and the degree of knowledge integration. These two dimensions capture key challenges of SESs research related to the need to account for context dependence and the intertwined nature of SESs as systems of humans embedded in nature across multiple scales, as well as to acknowledge different problem framings, understandings, interests, and values. We highlight the need to be aware of the potentials, limitations, and conceptual backgrounds underlying the different approaches. Critical engagement with modeling for different aims of SESs research can contribute to developing integrative understanding and action toward enhanced resilience and sustainability.

  • 35.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Tavoni, Alessandro
    Levin, Simon
    Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons2016In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 283, no 1822, article id 20152431Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable use of common-pool resources such as fish, water or forests depends on the cooperation of resource users that restrain their individual extraction to socially optimal levels. Empirical evidence has shown that under certain social and biophysical conditions, self-organized cooperation in the commons can evolve. Global change, however, may drastically alter these conditions. We assess the robustness of cooperation to environmental variability in a stylized model of a community that harvests a shared resource. Community members follow a norm of socially optimal resource extraction, which is enforced through social sanctioning. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and a small increase in resource variability can lead to collapse of cooperation observed in the no-variability case, while either scarcity or large variability have the potential to stabilize it. The combined effects of changes in amount and variability can reinforce or counteract each other depending on their size and the initial level of cooperation in the community. If two socially separate groups are ecologically connected through resource leakage, cooperation in one can destabilize the other. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change and spatial connectivity, indicating that there is no simple answer as to their effects on cooperation and sustainable resource use.

  • 36.
    Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Aktipis, Athena
    Brown, Zachary
    Carriere, Yves
    Downes, Sharon
    Dunn, Robert R.
    Epstein, Graham
    Frisvold, George B.
    Hawthorne, David
    Grohn, Yrjo T.
    Gujar, Govind Tikaramsa
    Jasovsky, Dusan
    Klein, Eili Y.
    Klein, Franziska
    Lhermie, Guillaume
    Mota-Sanchez, David
    Omoto, Celso
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Scott, H. Morgan
    Wernli, Didier
    Carroll, Scott P.
    Antibiotic and pesticide susceptibility and the Anthropocene operating space2018In: Nature Sustainability, ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 1, no 11, p. 632-641Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rising levels of antimicrobial and pesticide resistance increasingly undermine human health and systems for biomass production, and emphasize the sustainability challenge of preserving organisms susceptible to these biocides. In this Review, we introduce key concepts and examine dynamics of biocide susceptibility that must be governed to address this challenge. We focus on the impact of biocides on the capacity of susceptible organisms to prevent spread of resistance, and we then review how biocide use affects a broader suite of ecosystem services. Finally, we introduce and assess the state of what we term the Anthropocene operating space of biocide susceptibility, a framework for assessing the potential of antibiotic and pesticide resistance to undermine key functions of human society. Based on current trends in antibiotic, insecticide and herbicide resistance, we conclude that the states of all six assessed variables are beyond safe zones, with three variables surpassed regionally or globally.

  • 37. Thiel, Andreas
    et al.
    Schleyer, Christian
    Hinkel, Jochen
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hagedorn, Konrad
    Bisaro, Sandy
    Bobojonov, Ihtiyor
    Hamidov, Ahmad
    Transferring Williamson's discriminating alignment to the analysis of environmental governance of social-ecological interdependence2016In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 128, p. 159-168Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Institutional fit is operationalized by transferring transaction costs economics (TCE) to the analysis of instances of social-ecological interdependence. We carefully spell out the differences with conventional TCE and outline analytical steps based on discriminating alignment that enable a TCE analysis of environmental governance of nature-related transactions. We illustrate the approach through the example of wildlife management in Germany. Here we find hierarchical governance (a prohibition) of killing of wolves embedded into a polycentric hybrid monitoring arrangement. In applying TCE to nature-related transactions, we argue that characteristics of nature-related transactions can be subsumed under the core categories of jointness, uncertainty, asset specificity, frequency, rivalry, excludability and social-relational distance. Benefits of this approach include its generating a narrow list of descriptors of instances of biophysically mediated interdependence related to one evaluation criterion: cost-effectiveness. The TCE of nature-related transactions thus identifies sets of stylized contextual factors and aspects related to the governance of hazards of ex-post opportunistic behavior that cut across scales. They can be used as composite descriptors that facilitate analysis of complex multi-scalar arrangements of natural resource governance. We propose the concept of 'governance challenge', derived from TCE, as being useful for building research on environmental governance.

  • 38.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Sarmiento, Jorge L.
    Christensen, Villy
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems2013In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, p. 735-744Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

1 - 38 of 38
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