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  • 1.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Kannen, Andreas
    Barausse, Alberto
    Fischer, Christian
    Heymans, Johanna J.
    Luisetti, Tiziana
    Todorova, Valentin
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Mee, Laurence
    Past and future challenges in managing European seas2015In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 20, no 1, article id 40Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social-ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social-ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future challenges, i.e., climate change and energy intensification, that could further increase the potential for nonlinear changes in the near future. Practical tools to address these challenges are presented, such as ensuring learning, flexibility, and networking in decision-making processes across sectors and scales. A combination of risk analysis with a scenario-planning approach might help to identify the risks of ecosystem changes early on and may frame societal changes to inform decision-making structures to proactively prevent drastic surprises in European seas.

  • 2.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Oslo, Norway.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Björkvik, Emma
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    A sea of many colours - How relevant is Blue Growth for capture fisheries in the Global North, and vice versa?2018In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 87, p. 340-349Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Blue Growth is a relatively new term that is meant to realize economic growth based on the exploitation of marine resources, while at the same time preventing their degradation, overuse, and pollution. This article discusses the relevance and usefulness of this new concept for the development of capture fisheries, a sector where growth largely seems impossible without ecological devastation. An analytical distinction between intensive and extensive growth is used to argue that certain development trajectories of capture fisheries might qualify as Blue Growth. Such trajectories of growth are illustrated with the development of the Swedish bleak roe trawl fishery in the Bothnian Bay and Norwegian whitefish fishery in the Barents Sea. Comparison of the cases highlights aspects that Blue Growth advocates might want to include if they choose to consider capture fisheries as a relevant economic activity. These aspects include: a) adding value through certification; b) technological development to make more efficient use of resources used up in the fishing operation, and to upgrade their fish as commodity; and c) specialization.

  • 3.
    Niiranen, Susa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Richter, A.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Stige, L. C.
    Valmarn, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Eikeset, A. -M.
    Global connectivity and cross-scale interactions create uncertainty for Blue Growth of Arctic fisheries2018In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 87, p. 321-330Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic faces high expectations of Blue Growth due to future projections of easier access and increased biological productivity. These expectations are, however, often based on global and regional climate change projections and largely ignore the complexity of social-ecological interactions taking place across different temporal and spatial scales. This paper illustrates how such cross-scale interactions at, and across, different dimensions (e.g., ecological, socioeconomic and governance) can affect the development of Arctic fisheries; and potentially create uncertainties for future Blue Growth projections. Two Arctic marine systems, The Barents Sea and the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), are used as focus areas. The former hosts productive fisheries and is mostly covered by the EEZs of Norway and Russia, while the latter is still mainly covered by sea-ice and is a high seas area with no multilevel governance system in place. The examples show that, both systems are affected by a number of processes, beyond the environmental change, spanning a wide range of dimensions, as well as spatial and temporal scales. To address the complexity of the Arctic marine systems calls for an increase in holistic scientific understanding together with adaptive management practices. This is particularly important in the CAO, where no robust regional management structures are in place. Recognizing how cross-scale dynamics can cause uncertainties to the current fisheries projections and implementing well-functioning adaptive management structures across different Arctic sub-systems can play a key role in whether the Blue Growth potential in Arctic fisheries is realized or lost.

  • 4. Pihlajamäki, Mia
    et al.
    Varjupuro, Riku
    Nekoro, Marmar
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Roth, Eva
    Psuty, Iwona
    Andrulewicz, Eugeniusz
    Pelczarski, Wojciech
    Luzeńczyk, Anna
    Hyvärinen, Noora
    Deliverable 7.3 Marine Strategies for the Baltic Sea: First steps in the implementation of MSFD in Denmark, Poland, Finland and Sweden2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2008, the European Commission adopted its first legislative instrument for comprehensive protection of the marine environment, the Marine Strategy Framework 

    Directive (MSFD). By the end of 2012, the first concrete steps have been taken in the implementation of the directive, including its transposition into national legislations and the preparation of the first phase of the national marine strategies, i.e. Initial Assessment (IA) (Art.8), Determination of Good Environmental Status (GES) (Art.9), and Setting Environmental Targets and Indicators (Art.10). These steps aim at national marine strategies that will further include a Monitoring Programme and a Programme of Measures. The aim of this report is to describe and compare the different preparation processes the MSFD enacted in Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Finland. Throughout the Baltic Sea region, the preparation process has been supported by informal EU level working groups as well as by HELCOM working groups and projects. While the former WGs have concentrated on creating common understanding and providing guidelines for the process, the contribution of the latter ones has been mainly on providing relevant information (i.e. assessments and indicators) for the Baltic Sea region. This study was conducted between June and October 2012 and therefore the observations presented in this report reflect to the processes that took place up to October 2012. 

    The MSFD had been transposed into national legislation in all of the case countries apart from Poland in which the transposition is expected to be finalised by the end of 2012. The delay in the transposition process has significant consequences to the preparation process of Polish national marine strategy. However, all of the four countries failed to finalise the first phase of the national marine strategies (i.e. articles 8, 9 and 10 of the directive) by July 15th 2012, as was required by the directive. Furthermore, the directive stipulated that the first phases of the national marine strategies are reported to the Commission by October 15th 2012, but Denmark was the only country able to report the complete first phase of its national marine strategy to the Commission by the established deadline. 

    The preparation processes and the modes of operation varied regarding, for example, the division of responsibilities in the preparation process. In Denmark and Sweden the responsibility for implementing the MSFD was given to a single agency, whereas in Poland and Finland the responsibility was shared between three ministries and their respective administrative sectors. In Denmark and Poland, the preparation of articles 8, 9 and 10 were outsourced through tendering to national research institutes, universities and a consultancy company (in Denmark), whereas in Finland and Sweden, the related authorities (government agencies and institutes) have carried out the preparatory work as a part of their official duties. 

    In all of the four countries, relevant administrative sectors participated in the preparation process, however, wider stakeholder participation was organised only through the hearing procedures. The hearing procedure was organised in Finland and Sweden in the spring of 2012 and in Denmark over the summer of 2012. The procedure will be organised in Poland after the transposition of the MSFD has been finalised. Despite of the short – only 4 weeks long – hearing procedures over a hundred comments were received in Finland and over seventy in Sweden. In Denmark, the process lasted for 12 weeks and 28 comments were received.

    Download full text (pdf)
    Deliverable 7.3 Marine Strategies for the Baltic Sea
  • 5.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Beliefs and behavior in international policy making: Explanations to longitudinal changes in the governance of the Baltic Sea2016In: Maritime Studies, ISSN 1872-7859, E-ISSN 2212-9790, Vol. 15, article id 12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Policy change is often described as a consequence of different types of perturbations. The advocacy coalition framework (ACF) on the other hand advocates that policy changes are accomplished by changes among involved actors' beliefs and behavior. The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) with its so called ecosystem approach, signed by the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the European Community in 2007, is such a policy change. Yet, the causes behind the launch of the BSAP are unknown. By studying involved actors' beliefs and behavior this study shows that the BSAP was caused by a general shift in beliefs among all involved actors rather than by competing beliefs or changed actor behavior. The changed beliefs among the actors is either caused by learning processes or negotiations, however the relationship between these two remains unexplored. No coordinated behavior among the actors could be identified during the analyzed period.

  • 6.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Beliefs and behavior in international policy making: longitudinal changes in the governance of the Baltic SeaIn: Environmental Policy and Governance, ISSN 1756-932X, E-ISSN 1756-9338Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Institutional stability and change in the Baltic Sea: 30 years of issues, crises and solutions2013In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 38, p. 54-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The shift from a classic sector-by-sector management system to an operational ecosystem approach is perceived as the way forward towards sustainable use of marine systems. The nine states bordering the Baltic Sea as well as the European Community signed the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) in 2007, intended to provide practical means for implementing the ecosystem approach in the region. However, whether this shift towards a new governance approach also constitutes a case of institutional change remains unclear. This study evaluates institutional change over 30 years in order to understand the process of emergence of the ecosystem approach for this international institution. This study adds to the otherwise largely theoretical debate on institutional change by testing two models of institutional change – gradualist versus punctuated equilibrium – against data from the Helsinki Commission. Relying on a novel methodology involving quantitative text analyses of 574 documents this study suggests that the signing of the BSAP did not cause change in the institution, nor was it the cause of an abrupt institutional change. Overall, findings support a gradualist model of institutional change where the BSAP is layered upon preexisting institutional structures. Results also indicate that institutional change has occurred in some parts of the institution, whereas other parts remain remarkably stable. It proves that in order to intentionally change an institution it is vital that the change processes cohere at all levels of the institution. The study also underlines the mismatch between ecosystems and institutions. Given the relatively slow dynamics identified here, it is unclear whether institutions are able to adapt to rapid and unpredictable ecosystem shifts.

  • 8.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Three faces of HELCOM - institution, organization, policy producer2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite early initiatives during the 1960s and 1970s, and continuing efforts ever since, the Baltic Sea remains in poor condition. The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) is the governing body tasked with protecting the marine environment from further deterioration through intergovernmental collaboration between the Baltic Sea states and the EU. In 2007, HELCOM launched a new tool – the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), of which the so-called ecosystem approach is a cornerstone. However, how and why the BSAP reform was launched, and also what consequences such management reforms can have for transboundary resource management, is unknown.

    By using institutional theory, organizational theory and the advocacy coalition framework, in combination with content analysis of official documents derived from HELCOM, this thesis argues that the BSAP is the end result of a gradual process of change within institutional structures and actor beliefs. This thesis also shows that HELCOM's capacity to detect, process, and react in response to changes in its regulatory objective has not changed as a consequence of the BSAP. In contrast to earlier research, it seems HELCOM responds better to slow and opaque changes than to quick and visible ones. Finally, by comparing HELCOM with two other similar cases, the thesis shows that HELCOM's adaptive capacity could be improved in line with the recommendations of the ecosystem approach.

    This thesis illustrates the importance of studying the emergence of new tools for governing transboundary resources from several theoretical perspectives. The thesis uses an innovative quantitative content analysis and concludes that new methods might be required to enable such studies. The different perspectives used here give various explanations concerning the causes and consequences of the BSAP. In a future Baltic Sea, where environmental changes are likely to be abrupt, a multitude of understandings regarding the governance of the Baltic Sea will be crucial.

    Download full text (pdf)
    Kappa
  • 9.
    Valman, Matilda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Duit, Andreas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    HELCOM, we have a problem: gradually unfolding crises and problem detection in international organisationsIn: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Valman, Matilda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Duit, Andreas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Organizational responsiveness: The case of unfolding crises and problem detection within HELCOM2016In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 70, p. 49-57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How and to what extent do international organizations detect, process and react to different types of change within their policy domains? This study addresses this question by combining a unique data set consisting of policy documents from the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) with data measuring ecosystem change in the Baltic Sea during the period 1980-2013. Here HELCOM's responses to two types of ecosystem changes are investigated: fast and visible (summer algae blooms) and slow and opaque (anoxic areas). Finally, this study assesses if the organizational reform of 2007, which introduced the ecosystem approach, has had any effects on HELCOM responsiveness. It is found that HELCOM, contrary to expectations, is only responding systematically to slow-moving and opaque processes but that this response confirms the anticipated organizational bottom-up pattern. The ecosystem approach reform seems to have had a negative effect on the responsiveness of HELCOM; however, a general trend is that HELCOM over time has become more responsive in the lower levels of the organization. The lack of an immediate effect regarding the ecosystem approach reform can serve as a reminder of the absence of panaceas in policy making in general, and in environmental governance in particular.

  • 11.
    Valman, Matilda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Olsson, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Adaptive governance of the Baltic Sea - lessons from elsewhere2015In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 440-465Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Governance of marine resources is increasingly characterized by integrated, cross sectoral and ecosystem based approaches. Such approaches require that existing governing bodies have an ability to adapt to ecosystem dynamics, while also providing transparent and legitimate outcomes. Here, we investigate how the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), the international governing body for the Baltic Sea, could improve its prospects for working with the ecosystem approach, drawing from the literature on adaptive governance. We construct an ideal type of adaptive governance to which we compare the way in which HELCOM is operating and relate these dynamics to two other international marine environment governance organizations, the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security (CTI-CFF) and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). We conclude that HELCOM deviates from an ideal type of adaptive governance in several ways but also that the other two case studies provide empirical support for potential ways in which HELCOM could improve its adaptive capacity. Key aspects where HELCOM could improve include increasing stakeholder participation - both in information sharing and decision making. Further, HELCOM need to develop evaluation mechanisms, secure compliance to improve adaptive capacity and organizational effectiveness, which entails the development of structures for conflict resolution. Finally, HELCOM need to increase communication and harmonization between different levels of authority.

  • 12. Varjopuro, Riku
    et al.
    Andrulewicz, Eugeniusz
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dolch, Tobias
    Heiskanen, Anna-Stuna
    Pihlajamäki, Mia
    Brandt, Urs Steiner
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Gee, Kira
    Potts, Tavis
    Psuty, Iwona
    Coping with persistent environmental problems: systemic delays in reducing eutrophication of the Baltic Sea2014In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 48-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we focus on systemic delays in the Baltic Sea that cause the problem of eutrophication to persist. These problems are demonstrated in our study by addressing three types of delays: (1) decision delay: the time it takes for an idea or perceived need to be launched as a policy; (2) implementation delay: the time from the launch of a policy to the actual implementation; (3) ecosystem delay: the time difference between the implementation and an actual measurable effects. A policy process is one characterized by delays. It may take years from problem identification to a decision to taking action and several years further for actual implementation. Ecosystem responses to measures illustrate that feedback can keep the ecosystem in a certain state and cause a delay in ecosystem response. These delays can operate on decadal scales. Our aim in this paper is to analyze these systemic delays and especially to discuss how the critical delays can be better addressed in marine protection policies by strengthening the adaptive capacity of marine protection. We conclude that the development of monitoring systems and reflexive, participatory analysis of dynamics involved in the implementation are keys to improve understanding of the systemic delays. The improved understanding is necessary for the adaptive management of a persistent environmental problem. In addition to the state of the environment, the monitoring and analysis should be targeted also at the implementation of policies to ensure that the societies are investing in the right measures.

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