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  • 1.
    Bender, Frida A.-M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Charlson, Robert J.
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Loeb, Norman
    22 views of the global albedo - comparison between 20 GCMs and two satellites2006In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 58, no 3, 320-330 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    Bender, Frida
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Ekman, Annica
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models2010In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 35, no 5, 875-886 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The radiative flux perturbations and subsequent temperature responses in relation to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are studied in the ten general circulation models incorporated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), that include a parameterization of volcanic aerosol. Models and observations show decreases in global mean temperature of up to 0.5 K, in response to radiative perturbations of up to 10 W m−2, averaged over the tropics. The time scale representing the delay between radiative perturbation and temperature response is determined by the slow ocean response, and is estimated to be centered around 4 months in the models. Although the magniude of the temperature response to a volcanic eruption has previously been used as an indicator of equilibrium climate sensitivity in models, we find these two quantities to be only weakly correlated. This may partly be due to the fact that the size of the volcano-induced radiative perturbation varies among the models. It is found that the magnitude of the modelled radiative perturbation increases with decreasing climate sensitivity, with the exception of one outlying model. Therefore, we scale the temperature perturbation by the radiative perturbation in each model, and use the ratio between the integrated temperature perturbation and the integrated radiative perturbation as a measure of sensitivity to volcanic forcing. This ratio is found to be well correlated with the model climate sensitivity, more sensitive models having a larger ratio. Further, if this correspondence between “volcanic sensitivity” and sensitivity to CO2 forcing is a feature not only among the models, but also of the real climate system, the alleged linear relation can be used to estimate the real climate sensitivity. The observational value of the ratio signifying volcanic sensitivity is hereby estimated to correspond to an equilibrium climate sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium temperature increase due to a doubling of the CO2 concentration, between 1.7 and 4.1 K. Several sources of uncertainty reside in the method applied, and it is pointed out that additional model output, related to ocean heat storage and radiative forcing, could refine the analysis, as could reduced uncertainty in the observational record, of temperature as well as forcing.

  • 3.
    Bender, Frida
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Al Gore är inte forskare2008In: Svenska Dagbladet, no 2008-10-25Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 4.
    Bender, Frida
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Vem ska man tro på om klimatet?2008In: Svenska Dagbladet, no 2008-10-17Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 5. Bengtsson, Lennart
    et al.
    Claesson, Stefan
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Öquist, Gunnar
    Extrema oväder hänger inte ihop med ett varmare klimat2009In: Dagens Nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 16 decemberArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 6. Björck, S
    et al.
    Backman, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geology and Geochemistry.
    Bengtsson, S
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Uttalande från klimatgruppen inom akademiens klass för geovetenskaper angående Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis2007Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Björck S., Backman J., Bengtsson S., Destouni G., Rodhe H., Uttalande från klimatgruppen inom akademiens klass för geovetenskaper angående Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Statement on Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis; in Swedish), Climate Group of the Class of Geosciences at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 5 June, 2007.

  • 7. Budhavant, K. B.
    et al.
    Rao, P. S. P.
    Safai, P. D.
    Granat, L.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Chemical composition of the inorganic fraction of cloud-water at a high altitude site in West India2014In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 88, 59-65 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Data from a ground-based cloud-water collection system intercepting water from clouds at a mountain field station, Sinhagad near Pune in India are presented. This study was part of an Indo-Swedish Collaboration Project on Atmospheric Brown Cloud-Asia (ABC-A). Cloud-water and rainwater (wet-only) samples were collected during June 2007-Dec. 2010. Concentrations of major anions and cations were determined. Ion concentrations were generally higher (NO3-, about 8 times; SO42- and K+, 5 times; NH4+ times and Cl-, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ 3 times) in cloud-water samples than in rainwater samples collected during the same days. The average pH of cloud-water samples was 6.0 with about 20% of the values below 5.6 and only 4% less than 5.0. Despite high concentrations of SO42- and NO3- the cloud water samples were on average not more acidic than rainwater samples. This is different from most of the other studies of cloud-water composition which have noted a substantially higher acidity (i.e. lower pH) in cloud-water than in rainwater. The slightly alkaline (pH > 5.6) nature of the cloud-water samples is mainly due to the presence of soil derived calcium carbonate in quantities more than enough to neutralize the acids or their precursors. A separation of the cloud-water data into trajectory groups showed that samples in air-masses having spent the last few days over the Indian sub-continent were in general more acidic (due to anthropogenic emissions) than those collected during days with air-masses of marine origin. A high correlation mutually between Ca2+, Na+, NO3- and SO42- makes it difficult to estimate the contribution to SO42- from different sources. Anthropogenic SO2- emissions and soil dust may both give important contributions.

  • 8. Budhavant, K. B.
    et al.
    Rao, P. S. P.
    Safai, P. D.
    Leck, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Black carbon in cloud-water and rain water during monsoon season at a high altitude station in India2016In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 129, 256-264 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present results of measurements of black carbon (BC) from ground-based wet-only rainwater (RW) and cloud-water (CW) sampling at a mountain field station, Sinhagad, situated in south western India during the period from June 2008 to October 2010. The amount of BC in the sample was determined by photometry at a wavelength of 528 nm after a procedure including the filtration through a 0.4 mu m polycarbonate membrane filter. Water soluble concentrations of major anions in RW and CW were also determined. The average concentration of BC in RW (16 mu mol dm(-3)) is higher by at least a factor 2 than that found in similar studies reported from other parts of the world. On the other hand, the average concentration of BC in CW (47 mu mol dm(-3)) is lower by about a factor of 2 than that found at other sites. The ratio between the average concentrations in CW and RW varies from 2 (K+) to 7 (SO42-). The ratio for BC was about 3. No significant difference was observed for pH. Analysis of air mass back trajectories and of correlations between the various components indicates that long range transport of pollutants and dust from East Africa and Southern part of the Arabian peninsula might contribute to the high concentrations of BC and some of the ionic constituents at Sinhagad during the monsoon season.

  • 9. De Geer, Lars-Erik
    et al.
    Persson, Christer
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    A nuclear jet at Chernobyl around 21:23:45 UTC on April 25, 19862017In: Nuclear Technology, ISSN 0029-5450, E-ISSN 1943-7471Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The nature of two explosions that were witnessed within 3 s at the Chernobyl-4 reactor less than a minute after 21:23:00 UTC on April 25, 1986, have since then been the subject of sprawling interpretations. This paper renders the following hypothesis. The first explosion consisted of thermal neutron mediated nuclear explosions in one or rather a few fuel channels, which caused a jet of debris that reached an altitude of some 2500 to 3000 m. The second explosion would then have been the steam explosion most experts believe was the first one. The solid support for this new scenario rests on two pillars and three pieces of corroborating evidence. The first pillar is that a group at the V. G. Khlopin Radium Institute in then Leningrad on April 29, 1986, detected newly produced, or fresh, xenon fission products at Cherepovets, 370 km north of Moscow and far away from the major track of Chernobyl debris ejected by the steam explosion and subsequent fires. The second pillar is built on state-of-the-art meteorological dispersion calculations, which show that the fresh xenon signature observed at Cherepovets was only possible if the injection altitude of the fresh debris was considerably higher than that of the bulk reactor core releases that turned toward Scandinavia and central Europe. These two strong pieces of evidence are corroborated by what were manifest physical effects of a downward jet in the southeastern part of the reactor, by seismic measurements some 100 km west of the reactor, and by observations of a blue flash above the reactor a few seconds after the first explosion.

  • 10.
    Granat, Lennart
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Engström, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Praveen, Siva
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Light Absorbing Material ("Soot") in Rainwater and in aerosol particles in the Maldives2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 115, D16307- p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Simultaneous measurements of soot (absorbing material at 528 nm) and inorganic ions in aerosol and precipitation at the Maldives Climate Observatory Hanimaadhoo during the period May 2005 to February 2007 have made it possible to calculate the washout ratio (WR) of these components as a measure of how efficiently they are scavenged by precipitation. Based on air trajectories the data have been separated into days with polluted air arriving from the Indian subcontinent in a north-easterly sector during winter and clean monsoon days with southerly flow from the Indian Ocean. The average soot concentration was a factor of ten higher in the former situations.

    Despite considerable scatter for individual days a systematic pattern emerged when the WR for the different components were compared with each other. During the monsoon season the WR for soot was similar to that of sulphate and other fine mode aerosol components, indicating that soot containing particles in these situations were efficient as cloud condensation nuclei. The origin of the light absorbing material during the monsoon season is unclear. We speculate that light absorbing material from the tropical ocean surface could contribute to the concentration of "soot" during the monsoon season.

    During the polluted winter days, on the other hand, the WR for soot was 3 times smaller than that of sulphate. This indicates that, even after a travel time of several days, the soot containing particles from India have retained much of their hydrophobic property and that the soot must be mainly externally mixed. The low WR and the infrequent rain during this season probably contribute to extending the atmospheric lifetime of soot well beyond several days.

    Surprisingly high concentrations of non sea salt calcium were measured during the monsoon season, substantially higher than during the winter season. The origin of these high values might be long-range transport from the Australian or African continents. Another possibility might be exopolymer gels derived from the ocean surface micro-layer.

  • 11.
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Kruså, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Zencak, Zdenek
    Sheesley, Rebecca J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Granat, Lennart
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Engström, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Praveen, P.S.
    Rao, P.S.P.
    Leck, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Brown clouds over South Asia: Biomass or fossil fuel combustion?2009In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 323, no 23 January, 495-498 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12. Hicks, Kevin
    et al.
    Kuylenstierna, Johan
    Owen, Anne
    Dentener, Frank
    Seip, Hans-Martin
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Soil sensitivity to acidification in Asia: Status and prospects2008In: Ambio, Vol. 37, no 4, 295-303 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0–50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification–related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification

  • 13.
    Karlsson, Johannes
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Cloud radiative forcing of subtropical low level clouds in global models2008In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 30, no 7-8, 779-788 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Simulations of subtropical marine low clouds and their radiative properties by nine coupled oceanatmosphere climate models participating in the fourth assesment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) are analyzed. Satellite observations of cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are utilized for comparison. The analysis is confined to the marine subtropics in an attempt to isolate low cloudiness from tropical convective systems. All analyzed models have a negative bias in the low cloud fraction (model mean bias of –15%). On the other hand, the models show an excess of cloud radiative cooling in the region (model mean excess of 13 W m–2). The latter bias is shown to mainly originate from too much shortwave reflection by the models clouds rather than biases in the clear-sky fluxes. These results confirm earlier studies, thus no major progress in simulating the marine subtropical clouds is noted. As a consequence of the combination of these two biases, this study suggests that all investigated models are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in low level subtropical cloudiness.

  • 14.
    Kleman, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Källén, Erland
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Bern förnekar fysikens grunder2008Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 15.
    Kleman, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Holmgren, Karin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jakobsson, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Nilsson, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Tjernström, Michael
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Rubbat förtroende för forskarna2010In: Svenska Dagbladet, ISSN 1101-2412, no 25 majArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 16. Ramanathan, V.
    et al.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Agrawal, M.
    Akimoto, H.
    Auffhammer, M.
    Chopra, U.K.
    Emberson, Lisa
    Hasnain, Syed Iqbal
    Iyngararasan, M.
    Jayaraman, A.
    Lawrence, M.
    Nakajima, T.
    Ruchirawat, M.
    Singh, A.K.
    Vincent, Jerry R.
    Zhang, Yuanhang
    Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia2008Report (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Noone, Kevin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nykvist, Björn
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    de Wit, Chynthia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Sörlin, Sverker
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Constanza, Robert
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Svedin, Uno
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity2009In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 14, no 2Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18.
    Rockström, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Noone, Kevin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Persson, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nykvist, Björn
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    de Wit, Cynthia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Sörlin, Sverker
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Constanza, Robert
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Svedin, Uno
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Falkenmark, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Walker, Brian
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    A safe operating space for humanity2009In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 461, no 24 Sept, 472-475 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Black carbon particles spread over large areas2010In: Black Carbon e-Bulletin, Vol. 2, no 3, 1-2 p.Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 20.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    De vita partiklarnas förbannelse2012In: Forskning och framsteg, ISSN 0015-7937, no 2, 15-17 p.Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 21.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Deposition studies in Asia - An overview2007In: Composition of Asian deposition (CAD): Second workshop proceedings, 2007, 1-6 p.Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 22.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    The particle-emissions dilemma2012In: The Jordan times, ISSN 1564-0221, no 10 MayArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 23.
    Rodhe, Henning
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Minskning av sotutsläpp snabbaste miljöåtgärden2009In: Dagens Nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 27 februariArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 24.
    Rodhe, Henning
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology.
    Westberg, Gunnar
    Carl Bildt vägrar satsa på kärnvapennedrustning2008In: Dagens Nyheter, no 2008-08-06Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 25. Schwartz, S. E.
    et al.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology. CM.
    Authors' response to Correspondense by Forster et al.2007In: Nature Reports Climate Change, ISSN 1753-9315, Vol. 4, no September, 64- p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 26. Schwartz, Stephen E.
    et al.
    Charlson, Robert J.
    Kahn, Ralph A.
    Ogren, John A.
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?2010In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 23, no 10, 2453-2464 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15%. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

  • 27. Schwartz, Stephen E.
    et al.
    Charlson, Robert J.
    Kahn, Ralph
    Rodhe, Henning
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Earth's Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments2014In: Earths Future, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 2, no 12, 601-605 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO2 given in AR5, 1.5-4.5 K/(3.7 W m(-2)) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2-2.9 K/(3.7 W m(-2)), where 3.7 W m(-2) denotes the forcing for doubled CO2. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.

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