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  • 1. Barfuss, Wolfram
    et al.
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Kurths, Jürgen
    When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe2018In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 9, article id 2354Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving policy makers uncertain which paradigm to apply. Here, we develop a better understanding of their interrelationships, using a stylized model of human-environment tipping elements. We find that no paradigm guarantees fulfilling requirements imposed by another paradigm and derive simple heuristics for the conditions under which these trade-offs occur. We show that the absence of such a master paradigm is of special relevance for governing real-world tipping systems such as climate, fisheries, and farming, which may reside in a parameter regime where economic optimization is neither sustainable nor safe.

  • 2. Coelho, Miguel
    et al.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Germany.
    Alberti, Simon
    Gross, Thilo
    Tolic, Iva M.
    Fusion of Protein Aggregates Facilitates Asymmetric Damage Segregation2014In: PLoS biology, ISSN 1544-9173, E-ISSN 1545-7885, Vol. 12, no 6, p. e1001886-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Asymmetric segregation of damaged proteins at cell division generates a cell that retains damage and a clean cell that supports population survival. In cells that divide asymmetrically, such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae, segregation of damaged proteins is achieved by retention and active transport. We have previously shown that in the symmetrically dividing Schizosaccharomyces pombe there is a transition between symmetric and asymmetric segregation of damaged proteins. Yet how this transition and generation of damage-free cells are achieved remained unknown. Here, by combining in vivo imaging of Hsp104-associated aggregates, a form of damage, with mathematical modeling, we find that fusion of protein aggregates facilitates asymmetric segregation. Our model predicts that, after stress, the increased number of aggregates fuse into a single large unit, which is inherited asymmetrically by one daughter cell, whereas the other one is born clean. We experimentally confirmed that fusion increases segregation asymmetry, for a range of stresses, and identified Hsp16 as a fusion factor. Our work shows that fusion of protein aggregates promotes the formation of damage-free cells. Fusion of cellular factors may represent a general mechanism for their asymmetric segregation at division.

  • 3.
    Downing, Andrea S.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bhowmik, Avit
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Collste, David
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Donges, Jonathan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Hinton, Jennifer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Lade, Steven
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Mooij, Wolf M.
    Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 073005Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. Weuse the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. Weassume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: Wefind that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. Wesuggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.

  • 4. Harker-Schuch, Inez E. P.
    et al.
    Mills, Franklin P.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Colvin, Rebecca M.
    CO2peration-Structuring a 3D interactive digital game to improve climate literacy in the 12-13-year-old age group2020In: Computers and education, ISSN 0360-1315, E-ISSN 1873-782X, Vol. 144, article id 103705Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Preparing students for their future and qualifying them to enter public life is the essential role of the public-school system. As such, an understanding of climate science ought to be an essential-and significant component of that preparation. This research proposes a novel pathway to teach climate science via a 3D interactive digital game and examines the potential of 12-13-year olds as a prepatent group for climate science interventions. After playing a proof-of-concept climate science game that covers the physical causes and mechanisms of climate change, 401 students in Austria and Australia were tested with a climate literacy questionnaire. Our results indicate that climate literacy can be improved in this age group via the digital game. In addition, we found further evidence of established climate science 'knowledge domains' in this age group that form a natural 'increased levels of complexity' scaffold that can be used to design curricula such as that in the digital game. These four 'knowledge domains' are (in brief): Earth in the solar system; gravity and its effect on the atmosphere; albedo and solar radiation, and; greenhouse gases and their warming potential.

  • 5.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Anderies, John M.
    Beer, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gasser, Thomas
    Norberg, Jon
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Richardson, Katherine
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing2018In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 507-523Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

  • 6.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Engström, Gustav
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Resilience offers escape from trapped thinking on poverty alleviation2017In: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 3, no 5, article id 1603043Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The poverty trap concept strongly influences current research and policy on poverty alleviation. Financial or technological inputs intended to push the rural poor out of a poverty trap have had many successes but have also failed unexpectedly with serious ecological and social consequences that can reinforce poverty. Resilience thinking can help to (i) understand how these failures emerge from the complex relationships between humans and the ecosystems on which they depend and (ii) navigate diverse poverty alleviation strategies, such as transformative change, that may instead be required. First, we review commonly observed or assumed social-ecological relationships in rural development contexts, focusing on economic, biophysical, and cultural aspects of poverty. Second, we develop a classification of poverty alleviation strategies using insights from resilience research on social-ecological change. Last, we use these advances to develop stylized, multidimensional poverty trap models. The models show that (i) interventions that ignore nature and culture can reinforce poverty (particularly in agrobiodiverse landscapes), (ii) transformative change can instead open new pathways for poverty alleviation, and (iii) asset inputs may be effective in other contexts (for example, where resource degradation and poverty are tightly interlinked). Our model-based approach and insights offer a systematic way to review the consequences of the causal mechanisms that characterize poverty traps in different agricultural contexts and identify appropriate strategies for rural development challenges.

  • 7.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Generalized modeling of empirical social-ecological systems2017In: Natural Resource Modeling, ISSN 0890-8575, E-ISSN 1939-7445, Vol. 30, no 3, article id e12129Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Modeling social-ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social-ecological system are often over-simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the model's constituent processes. Here, we review generalized modeling and use a recent study on the Baltic Sea cod fishery's boom and collapse to demonstrate its application to modeling the dynamics of empirical social-ecological systems. These empirical applications demand new methods of analysis suited to larger, more complicated generalized models. Generalized modeling is a promising tool for rapidly developing mathematically rigorous, process-based understanding of a social-ecological system's dynamics despite limited knowledge of the system. Recommendations for Resource Managers Understanding empirical social-ecological dynamics requires integrating quantitative and qualitative data Generalized modeling can analyze qualitative dynamics, such as regime shifts, by integrating both qualitative and quantitative data Generalized modeling is well-suited to use in participatory or collaborative settings

  • 8.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Quaas, Martin F.
    Österblom, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts2015In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 112, no 35, p. 11120-11125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  • 9.
    Lade, Steven J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
    Tavoni, Alessandro
    Levin, Simon A.
    Schluter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Regime shifts in a social-ecological system2013In: Theoretical Ecology, ISSN 1874-1738, E-ISSN 1874-1746, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 359-372Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecological regime shifts are rarely purely ecological. Not only is the regime shift frequently triggered by human activity, but the responses of relevant actors to ecological dynamics are often crucial to the development and even existence of the regime shift. Here, we show that the dynamics of human behaviour in response to ecological changes can be crucial in determining the overall dynamics of the system. We find a social-ecological regime shift in a model of harvesters of a common-pool resource who avoid over-exploitation of the resource by social ostracism of non-complying harvesters. The regime shift, which can be triggered by several different drivers individually or also in combination, consists of a breakdown of the social norm, sudden collapse of co-operation and an over-exploitation of the resource. We use the approach of generalized modeling to study the robustness of the regime shift to uncertainty over the specific forms of model components such as the ostracism norm and the resource dynamics. Importantly, the regime shift in our model does not occur if the dynamics of harvester behaviour are not included in the model. Finally, we sketch some possible early warning signals for the social-ecological regime shifts we observe in the models.

  • 10. Mathias, Jean-Denis
    et al.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Galaz, Victor
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Multi-level policies and adaptive social networks - a conceptual modeling study for maintaining a polycentric governance system2017In: International Journal of the Commons, ISSN 1875-0281, E-ISSN 1875-0281, Vol. 11, no 1, p. 220-247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Information and collaboration patterns embedded in social networks play key roles in multilevel and polycentric modes of governance. However, modeling the dynamics of such social networks in multilevel settings has been seldom addressed in the literature. Here we use an adaptive social network model to elaborate the interplay between a central and a local government in order to maintain a polycentric governance. More specifically, our analysis explores in what ways specific policy choices made by a central agent affect the features of an emerging social network composed of local organizations and local users. Using two types of stylized policies, adaptive co-management and adaptive one-level management, we focus on the benefits of multi-level adaptive cooperation for network management. Our analysis uses viability theory to explore and to quantify the ability of these policies to achieve specific network properties. Viability theory gives the family of policies that enables maintaining the polycentric governance unlike optimal control that gives a unique blueprint. We found that the viability of the policies can change dramatically depending on the goals and features of the social network. For some social networks, we also found a very large difference between the viability of the adaptive one-level management and adaptive co-management policies. However, results also show that adaptive co-management doesn't always provide benefits. Hence, we argue that applying viability theory to governance networks can help policy design by analyzing the trade-off between the costs of adaptive co-management and the benefits associated with its ability to maintain desirable social network properties in a polycentric governance framework.

  • 11. Scherbaum, Stefan
    et al.
    Frisch, Simon
    Leiberg, Susanne
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita). KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Goschke, Thomas
    Dshemuchadse, Maja
    Process dynamics in delay discounting decisions: An attractor dynamics approach2016In: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 11, no 5, p. 472-495Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How do people make decisions between an immediate but small reward and a delayed but large one? The outcome of such decisions indicates that people discount rewards by their delay and hence these outcomes are well described by discounting functions. However, to understand irregular decisions and dysfunctional behavior one needs models which describe how the process of making the decision unfolds dynamically over time: how do we reach a decision and how do sequential decisions influence one another? Here, we present an attractor model that integrates into and extends discounting functions through a description of the dynamics leading to a final choice outcome within a trial and across trials. To validate this model, we derive qualitative predictions for the intra-trial dynamics of single decisions and for the inter-trial dynamics of sequences of decisions that are unique to this type of model. We test these predictions in four experiments based on a dynamic delay discounting computer game where we study the intra-trial dynamics of single decisions via mouse tracking and the inter-trial dynamics of sequences of decisions via sequentially manipulated options. We discuss how integrating decision process dynamics within and across trials can increase our understanding of the processes underlying delay discounting decisions and, hence, complement our knowledge about decision outcomes.

  • 12.
    Schlüter, Maja
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Lindkvist, Emilie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Martin, Romina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Orach, Kirill
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Wijermans, Nanda
    Univ Stockholm, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Capturing emergent phenomena in social-ecological systems: an analytical framework2019In: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 24, no 3, article id 11Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social-ecological systems (SES) are complex adaptive systems. Social-ecological system phenomena, such as regime shifts, transformations, or traps, emerge from interactions among and between human and nonhuman entities within and across scales. Analyses of SES phenomena thus require approaches that can account for (1) the intertwinedness of social and ecological processes and (2) the ways they jointly give rise to emergent social-ecological patterns, structures, and dynamics that feedback on the entities and processes that generated them. We have developed a framework of linked action situations (AS) as a tool to capture those interactions that are hypothesized to have jointly and dynamically generated a social-ecological phenomenon of interest. The framework extends the concept of an action situation to provide a conceptualization of SES that focusses on social-ecological interactions and their links across levels. The aim of our SE-AS (social-ecological action situations) framework is to support a process of developing hypotheses about configurations of ASs that may explain an emergent social-ecological phenomenon. We suggest six social-ecological ASs along with social and ecological action situations that can commonly be found in natural resource or ecosystem management contexts. We test the ability of the framework to structure an analysis of processes of emergence by applying it to different case studies of regime shifts, traps, and sustainable resource use. The framework goes beyond existing frameworks and approaches, such as the SES framework or causal loop diagrams, by establishing a way of analyzing SES that focuses on the interplay of social-ecological interactions with the emergent outcomes they produce. We conclude by discussing the added value of the framework and discussing the different purposes it can serve: from supporting the development of theories of the emergence of social-ecological phenomena, enhancing transparency of SES understandings to serving as a boundary object for interdisciplinary knowledge integration.

  • 13.
    Steffen, Will
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Richardson, Katherine
    Lenton, Timothy M.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Liverman, Diana
    Summerhayes, Colin P.
    Barnosky, Anthony D.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crucifix, Michel
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lade, Steven J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Scheffer, Marten
    Winkelmann, Ricarda
    Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene2018In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 115, no 33, p. 8252-8259Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

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