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  • 1. Bossio, Deborah
    et al.
    Erkossa, Teklu
    Dile, Yihun
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    McCartney, Matthew
    Killiches, Franziska
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Hoff, Holger
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Water implications of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia’s agricultural sector2012In: Water Alternatives, ISSN 1965-0175, E-ISSN 1965-0175, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 223-242Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ethiopia is often highlighted as a country in which a lot of foreign land acquisition is occurring. The extent to which these investments also constitute significant acquisitions of water is the subject of this paper. It is apparent that water availability is a strong driver of the recent surge of investments in agricultural land globally, and in general the investments occur in countries with significant 'untapped' water resources. Ethiopia is no exception. We propose that the perception of unused and abundant water resources, as captured in dominant narratives, that drives and justifies both foreign and domestic investments, fails to reflect the more complex reality on the ground. Based on new collections of lease information and crop modelling, we estimate the potential additional water use associated with foreign investments at various scales. As a consequence of data limitations our analyses provide only crude estimates of consumptive water use and indicate a wide range of possible water consumption depending on exactly how foreign direct investment (FDI) development scenarios unfold. However, they do suggest that if all planned FDI schemes are implemented and expanded in the near future, additional water consumption is likely to be comparable with existing water use in non-FDI irrigation schemes, and a non-trivial proportion of the country’s water resources will be effectively utilised by foreign entities. Hence, additional water use as well as local water scarcity ought to be strong considerations in regulating or pricing land leases. If new investments are to increase local food and water security without compromising local and downstream water availability they should be designed to improve often very low agricultural water productivity, and to safeguard access of local populations to water.

  • 2.
    Dile, Yihun
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Hydrological Response to Climate Change: Hydrological Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impact in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia, a Case study at the Gilgel Abay River Basin2011Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We all are aware that climate change is evident and will cause adverse impacts on the social and natural systems of all nations; however, its impact will hit developing countries the worst and the hardest. This book focuses on the impact of climate change on the Lake Tana Basin - a source of the Blue Nile river. The Lake Tana has vital role for the livelihoods of the people residing in the region in particular and the downstream countries in general. In this work, GCM derived scenarios of climate change data are used for predicting the plausible future climate of the region. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to downscale the GCM data into a finer scale. A physically based hydrological model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was setup, calibrated, validated and used for impact assessment. This book encompasses sound methodological approaches from climate change science to hydrological modeling, and can serve as an essential guide for practitioners and graduate students who are working on water resources and related disciplines. Yet, I remind the reader that the future is full of uncertainties, and so does climate change projections.

  • 3.
    Dile, Yihun
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Intensifying Agricultural Water Management in the Tropics: A cause of water shortage or a source of resilience?2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Frequent climatic shocks have presented challenges for rainfed agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Appropriate water management practices are among the solutions to the challenges. The role of water harvesting in achieving sustainable agricultural intensification and specified resilience was explored. Suitable areas for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile basin were identified. The usefulness of the Curve Number method for surface runoff estimation was evaluated, and was found to perform satisfactorily. The impact of climate change in the Lake Tana sub-basin was studied. A decision support system was developed for locating and sizing of water harvesting ponds in the SWAT model. Methodological developments enabled analysis of the implications of water harvesting intensification in a meso-scale watershed in the Lake Tana sub-basin.

    Results suggest that water harvesting can increase agricultural productivity, sustain ecosystems and build specified resilience, and thereby contribute to sustainable agricultural intensification. There is considerable potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Rainfall may increase in the Lake Tana sub-basin due to climate change. Supplementary irrigation from water harvesting ponds and better nutrient application increased staple crop production by up to three-fold. Moreover, a substantial amount of cash crop was produced using dry seasonal irrigation. Water harvesting altered the streamflow regime, and reduced sediment loss from the watershed.      

    Water harvesting can play an important role in food security. It showed potential to buffer climatic variability. In the watershed studied, water harvesting will not compromise the environmental water requirements. Instead, increased low flows, and reduced flooding and sediment loss may benefit the social-ecological systems. The adverse effects of disturbance of the natural flow variability and sediment influx to certain riverine ecosystems warrant detailed investigation.

  • 4.
    Dile, Yihun
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Identifying Suitable Areas for Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Berndtsson, Ronny
    Setegn, Shimelis G.
    Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin - Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia2013In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, no 10, p. e79296-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

  • 6.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Assessing the Implications of Water Harvesting Intensification on Upstream-downstream Social-ecological systems: a Case Study in the Lake Tana BasinManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Investigation of the curve number method for surface runoff estimation in tropical regions: a case study in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, EthiopiaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Temesgen, Melesse
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The role of water harvesting to achieve sustainable agricultural intensification and resilience against water related shocks in sub-Saharan Africa2013In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 181, p. 69-79Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Poverty alleviation in rural areas is a top priority for social and economic development, particularly against a backdrop of rising populations up to 2050 and to meet growing food demands in a rapidly urbanizing world. Sustainable intensification of agricultural techniques are therefore required, such as water management practices that result in higher agricultural production without causing severe environmental impacts, whilst at the same time improving resilience to drought and dry spells. Water harvesting practices have shown promising results in reducing risks, and improving yields whilst also delivering positive impacts on other ecosystems. However, before large scale implementation of water harvesting, further investigation of local downstream impacts are warranted. We conclude that water harvesting remains a promising option for sustainable agricultural intensification in the water scarce tropics, resulting in both risk reduction and yield improvements.

  • 9.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Meso-scale Hydrological Modeling Framework2014Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 10.
    Dile, Yihun Taddele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Srinivasan, Raghavan
    Evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic prediction in data-scarce watersheds: an application in the Blue Nile River Basin2014In: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, ISSN 1093-474X, E-ISSN 1752-1688, Vol. 50, no 5, p. 1226-1241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Data scarcity has been a huge problem in modeling the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Satellite data and different statistical methods have been used to improve the quality of conventional meteorological data. This study assesses the applicability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climate data in modeling the hydrology of the region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up to compare the performance of CFSR weather with that of conventional weather in simulating observed streamflow at four river gauging stations in the Lake Tana basin — the upper part of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The conventional weather simulation performed satisfactorily (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.5) for three gauging stations, while the CFSR weather simulation performed satisfactorily for two. The simulations with CFSR and conventional weather yielded minor differences in the water balance components in all but one watershed, where the CFSR weather simulation gave much higher average annual rainfall, resulting in higher water balance components. Both weather simulations gave similar annual crop yields in the four administrative zones. Overall the simulation with the conventional weather performed better than the CFSR weather. However, in data-scarce regions such as remote parts of the Upper Blue Nile basin, CFSR weather could be a valuable option for hydrological predictions where conventional gauges are not available.

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