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  • 1. Ahlgren, Joakim
    et al.
    Grimvall, Anders
    Omstedt, Anders
    Rolff, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment, Sweden.
    Wikner, Johan
    Temperature, DOC level and basin interactions explain the declining oxygen concentrations in the Bothnian Sea2017In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 170, 22-30 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia and oxygen deficient zones are expanding worldwide. To properly manage this deterioration of the marine environment, it is important to identify the causes of oxygen declines and the influence of anthropogenic activities. Here, we provide a study aiming to explain the declining oxygen levels in the deep waters of the Bothnian Sea over the past 20 years by investigating data from environmental monitoring programmes. The observed decline in oxygen concentrations in deep waters was found to be primarily a consequence of water temperature increase and partly caused by an increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the seawater (R-Adj(2). = 0.83) as well as inflow from the adjacent sea basin. As none of the tested eutrophication-related predictors were significant according to a stepwise multiple regression, a regional increase in nutrient inputs to the area is unlikely to explain a significant portion of the oxygen decline. Based on the findings of this study, preventing the development of anoxia in the deep water of the Bothnian Sea is dependent on the large-scale measures taken to reduce climate change. In addition, the reduction of the nutrient load to the Baltic Proper is required to counteract the development of hypoxic and phosphate-rich water in the Baltic Proper, which can form deep water in the Bothnian Sea. The relative importance of these sources to oxygen consumption is difficult to determine from the available data, but the results clearly demonstrate the importance of climate related factors such as temperature, DOC and inflow from adjacent basins for the oxygen status of the sea.

  • 2. Alexander, Karen A.
    et al.
    Heymans, Johanna J.
    Magill, Shona
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Holmes, Steven J.
    Wilding, Thomas A.
    Investigating the recent decline in gadoid stocks in the west of Scotland shelf ecosystem using a foodweb model2015In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 72, no 2, 436-449 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abundance and biomass of cod, haddock, and whiting in the waters off of the west coast of Scotland (wcoS) have undergone large changes in recent years, most notably a recent decline. These three species contribute a considerable part of Scottish demersal landings from this area and as such it is important to understand why these stocks are behaving the way they are. A number of explanations for the decline have been proposed, including: seal predation, pressure from Nephrops trawls, and fishing pressure more generally. We used an ecosystem model of the wcoS continental shelf (<200 m depth) to investigate whether these proposed explanations for declining gadoid stocks are feasible. Results suggest that the rise in the grey seal population over recent years has not led to the decline in gadoid stocks; there is insufficient bycatch by the Nephrops fleet to have a large impact on gadoid stocks; however, fishing, as a key driver of the west of Scotland shelf ecosystem, has impacted stocks and by decreasing fishing levels to maximum sustainable yield cod biomass may increase slightly though not returning to previous levels. Although this means we are little further forward in understanding the cause of recent gadoid declines in the area, the development of this model has enabled us to further our knowledge and understanding of aspects of trophic structure and the impacts of fishing on the wcoS.

  • 3. Andersen, Hans Estrup
    et al.
    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte
    Thodsen, Hans
    Mejlhede Andersen, Peter
    Larsen, Søren E.
    Stålnacke, Per
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Identifying Hot Spots of Agricultural Nitrogen Loss Within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin2016In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 227, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agricultural management practices are among the major drivers of agricultural nitrogen (N) loss. Legislation and management incentives for measures to mitigate N loss should eventually be carried out at the individual farm level. Consequently, an appropriate scale to simulate N loss from a scientific perspective should be at the farm scale. A data set of more than 4000 agricultural fields with combinations of climate, soils and agricultural management which overall describes the variations found in the Baltic Sea drainage basin was constructed. The soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al. 2012) was used to simulate N loss from the root zone of all agricultural fields in the data set. From the data set of Daisy simulations, we identified the most important drivers for N loss by multiple regression statistics and developed a statistical N loss model. By applying this model to a basin-wide data set on climate, soils and agricultural management at a 10 x 10 km scale, we were able to calculate root-zone N losses from the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin and identify N loss hot spots in a consistent way and at a level of detail not hitherto seen for this area. Further, the root-zone N loss model was coupled to estimates of nitrogen retention in catchments separated into retention in groundwater and retention in surface waters allowing calculation of the coastal N loading.

  • 4. Andersen, Jesper H.
    et al.
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Dromph, Karsten
    Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Josefson, Alf B.
    Norkko, Alf
    Villnäs, Anna
    Murray, Ciarán
    Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea2017In: Biological Reviews, ISSN 1464-7931, E-ISSN 1469-185X, Vol. 92, no 1, 135-149 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

  • 5. Anderson, Leif G.
    et al.
    Ek, Jörgen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ericson, Ylva
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Semiletov, Igor
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ulfsbo, Adam
    Export of calcium carbonate corrosive waters from the East Siberian Sea2017In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 14, no 7, 1811-1823 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Siberian shelf seas are areas of extensive biogeochemical transformation of organic matter, both of marine and terrestrial origin. This in combination with brine production from sea ice formation results in a cold bottom water of relative high salinity and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)). Data from the SWERUS-C3 expedition compiled on the icebreaker Oden in July to September 2014 show the distribution of such waters at the outer shelf, as well as their export into the deep central Arctic basins. Very high pCO(2) water, up to similar to 1000 mu atm, was observed associated with high nutrients and low oxygen concentrations. Consequently, this water had low saturation state with respect to calcium carbonate down to less than 0.8 for calcite and 0.5 for aragonite. Waters undersaturated in aragonite were also observed in the surface in waters at equilibrium with atmospheric CO2; however, at these conditions the cause of undersaturation was low salinity from river runoff and/or sea ice melt. The calcium carbonate corrosive water was observed all along the continental margin and well out into the deep Makarov and Canada basins at a depth from about 50 m depth in the west to about 150 m in the east. These waters of low aragonite saturation state are traced in historic data to the Canada Basin and in the waters flowing out of the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland and in the western Fram Strait, thus potentially impacting the marine life in the North Atlantic Ocean.

  • 6. Bergström, Lena
    et al.
    Kautsky, Lena
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Malm, Torleif
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    Wahlberg, Magnus
    Capetillo, Nastassja Åstrand
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Wilhelmsson, Dan
    Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife-a generalized impact assessment2014In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, no 3, 034012- p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.

  • 7.
    Bonaglia, Stefano
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Lund University, Sweden.
    Klawonn, Isabell
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences. IGB-Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    De Brabandere, Loreto
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Thamdrup, Bo
    Brüchert, Volker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Denitrification and DNRA at the Baltic Sea oxic-anoxic interface: Substrate spectrum and kinetics2016In: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, E-ISSN 1939-5590, Vol. 61, no 5, 1900-1915 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dependence of denitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) on different electron donors was tested in the nitrate-containing layer immediately below the oxic-anoxic interface (OAI) at three stations in the central anoxic basins of the Baltic Sea. Additionally, pathways and rates of fixed nitrogen transformation were investigated with N-15 incubation techniques without addition of donors. Denitrification and anammox were always detected, but denitrification rates were higher than anammox rates. DNRA occurred at two sites and rates were two orders of magnitude lower than denitrification rates. Separate additions of dissolved organic carbon and sulfide stimulated rates without time lag indicating that both organotrophic and lithotrophic bacterial populations were simultaneously active and that they could carry out denitrification or DNRA. Manganese addition stimulated denitrification and DNRA at one station, but it is not clear whether this was due to a direct or indirect effect. Ammonium oxidation to nitrite was detected on one occasion. During denitrification, the production of nitrous oxide (N2O) was as important as dinitrogen (N-2) production. A high ratio of N2O to N-2 production at one site may be due to copper limitation, which inhibits the last denitrification step. These data demonstrate the coexistence of a range of oxidative and reductive nitrogen cycling processes at the Baltic OAI and suggest that the dominant electron donor supporting denitrification and DNRA is organic matter. Organotrophic denitrification is more important for nitrogen budgets than previously thought, but the large temporal variability in rates calls for long-term seasonal studies.

  • 8. Carstensen, Jacob
    et al.
    Andersen, Jesper H.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century2014In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 111, no 15, 5628-5633 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Deoxygenation is a global problem in coastal and open regions of the ocean, and has led to expanding areas of oxygen minimum zones and coastal hypoxia. The recent expansion of hypoxia in coastal ecosystems has been primarily attributed to global warming and enhanced nutrient input from land and atmosphere. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in the world is the Baltic Sea, where the relative importance of physical forcing versus eutrophication is still debated. We have analyzed water column oxygen and salinity profiles to reconstruct oxygen and stratification conditions over the last 115 y and compare the influence of both climate and anthropogenic forcing on hypoxia. We report a 10-fold increase of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and show that this is primarily linked to increased inputs of nutrients from land, although increased respiration from higher temperatures during the last two decades has contributed to worsening oxygen conditions. Although shifts in climate and physical circulation are important factors modulating the extent of hypoxia, further nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea will be necessary to reduce the ecosystems impacts of deoxygenation.

  • 9. Carstensen, Jacob
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hietanen, Susanna
    Janas, Urzsula
    Jilbert, Tom
    Maximov, Alexey
    Norkko, Alf
    Norkko, Joanna
    Reed, Daniel C.
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Timmermann, Karen
    Voss, Maren
    Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 1, 26-36 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km(2) before 1950 to > 60 000 km(2) since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

  • 10. Cease, Arianne J.
    et al.
    Capps, Krista A.
    Gates, Kiza K.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Nidzgorski, Daniel A.
    Consumer-driven nutrient dynamics in urban environments: the stoichiometry of human diets and waste management2015In: Oikos, ISSN 0030-1299, E-ISSN 1600-0706, Vol. 124, no 7, 931-948 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have documented the potential importance of consumers on ecosystem-level nutrient dynamics. This is especially true when aggregations of organisms create biogeochemical hotspots through nutrient consumption, assimilation, and remineralization via excretion and egestion. Here, we focused on aggregations of humans in cities to examine how diet and waste management interact to drive nitrogen-(N) and phosphorus-(P) fluxes into nutrient pollution, inert forms, and nutrient recycling. We constructed six diet patterns (five US-based and one developing nation) to examine N-and P-consumption and excretion, and explored their implications for human health. Next, we constructed six waste-management patterns (three US and three for developing nations) to model how decisions at household and city scales determine the eventual fates of N and P. When compared to the US Recommended Daily Intake, all US diet patterns exceeded N and P requirements. Other than the enriched CO2 environment scenario diet, the typical US omnivore had the greatest excess (37% N and 62% P). Notably, P from food additives could account for all of the excess P found in US omnivore and vegetarian diets. Across all waste-management approaches, a greater proportion of P was stored or recycled (0 to > 100% more P than N) and a greater proportion of N was released as effluent (20 to > 100% more N than P) resulting in pollution enriched with N and a recycling stream enriched with P. In developing nations, 60% of N and 50% of P from excreta entered the environment as pollution because of a lack of sanitation infrastructure. Our study demonstrates a novel addition to modeling sustainable scenarios for urban N-and P-budgets by linking human diets and waste management through socio-ecological systems.

  • 11.
    Dahlgren Strååt, Kim
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Sobek, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Undeman, Emma
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Modeling total particulate organic carbon (POC) flows in the Baltic Sea catchment2016In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 128, no 1-2, 51-65 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The largest input source of carbon to the Baltic Sea catchment is river discharge. A tool for modeling riverine particulate organic carbon (POC) loads on a catchment scale is currently lacking. The present study describes a novel dynamic model for simulating flows of POC in all major rivers draining the Baltic Sea catchment. The processes governing POC input and transport in rivers described in the model are soil erosion, in-stream primary production and litter input. The Baltic Sea drainage basin is divided into 82 sub-basins, each comprising several land classes (e.g. forest, cultivated land, urban areas) and parameterized using GIS data on soil characteristics and topography. Driving forces are temperature, precipitation, and total phosphorous concentrations. The model evaluation shows that the model can predict annual average POC concentrations within a factor of about 2, but generally fails to capture the timing of monthly peak loads. The total annual POC load to the Baltic Sea is estimated to be 0.34 Tg POC, which constitutes circa 7-10 % of the annual total organic carbon (TOC) load. The current lack of field measurements of POC in rivers hampers more accurate predictions of seasonality in POC loads to the Baltic Sea. This study, however, identifies important knowledge gaps and provides a starting point for further explorations of large scale POC mass flows.

  • 12. De Brabandere, L.
    et al.
    Bonaglia, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Kononets, M.
    Viktorsson, Lena
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Stigebrandt, A.
    Thamdrup, B.
    Hall, P. O. J.
    Oxygenation of an anoxic fjord basin strongly stimulates benthic denitrification and DNRAManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Donadi, Serena
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Sweden.
    Austin, Åsa N.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Bergström, U.
    Eriksson, B. K.
    Hansen, Joakim P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Jacobson, P.
    Sundblad, G.
    van Regteren, M.
    Eklöf, Johan S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    A cross-scale trophic cascade from large predatory fish to algae in coastal ecosystems2017In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 284, no 1859, 20170045Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Trophic cascades occur in many ecosystems, but the factors regulating them are still elusive. We suggest that an overlooked factor is that trophic interactions (TIs) are often scale-dependent and possibly interact across spatial scales. To explore the role of spatial scale for trophic cascades, and particularly the occurrence of cross-scale interactions (CSIs), we collected and analysed food-web data from 139 stations across 32 bays in the Baltic Sea. We found evidence of a four-level trophic cascade linking TIs across two spatial scales: at bay scale, piscivores (perch and pike) controlled mesopredators (three-spined stickleback), which in turn negatively affected epifaunal grazers. At station scale (within bays), grazers on average suppressed epiphytic algae, and indirectly benefitted habitat-forming vegetation. Moreover, the direction and strength of the grazer-algae relationship at station scale depended on the piscivore biomass at bay scale, indicating a cross-scale interaction effect, potentially caused by a shift in grazer assemblage composition. In summary, the trophic cascade from piscivores to algae appears to involve TIs that occur at, but also interact across, different spatial scales. Considering scale-dependence in general, and CSIs in particular, could therefore enhance our understanding of trophic cascades.

  • 14. Eero, Margit
    et al.
    Hjelm, Joakim
    Behrens, Jane
    Buchmann, Kurt
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Casini, Michele
    Gasyukov, Pavel
    Holmgren, Noel
    Horbowy, Jan
    Hussy, Karin
    Kirkegaard, Eskild
    Kornilovs, Georgs
    Krumme, Uwe
    Koster, Friedrich W.
    Oeberst, Rainer
    Plikshs, Maris
    Radtke, Krzysztof
    Raid, Tiit
    Schmidt, Joern
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Vinther, Morten
    Zimmermann, Christopher
    Storr-Paulsen, Marie
    Food for Thought Eastern Baltic cod in distress: biological changes and challenges for stock assessment2015In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 72, no 8, 2180-2186 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The eastern Baltic (EB) cod (Gadus morhua) stock was depleted and overexploited for decades until the mid-2000s, when fishing mortality rapidly declined and biomass started to increase, as shown by stock assessments. These positive developments were partly assigned to effective management measures, and the EB cod was considered one of the most successful stock recoveries in recent times. In contrast to this optimistic view, the analytical stock assessment failed in 2014, leaving the present stock status unclear. Deteriorated quality of some basic input data for stock assessment in combination with changes in environmental and ecological conditions has led to an unusual situation for cod in the Baltic Sea, which poses new challenges for stock assessment and management advice. A number of adverse developments such as low nutritional condition and disappearance of larger individuals indicate that the stock is in distress. In this study, we (i) summarize the knowledge of recent changes in cod biology and ecosystem conditions, (ii) describe the subsequent challenges for stock assessment, and (iii) highlight the key questions where answers are urgently needed to understand the present stock status and provide scientifically solid support for cod management in the Baltic Sea.

  • 15. Eglite, Elvita
    et al.
    Lavrinovics, Aigars
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia.
    Aigars, Juris
    Poikane, Rita
    Nutrient turnover at the hypoxic boundary: flux measurements and model representation for the bottom water environment of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea2014In: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, no 4, 711-735 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Experimental studies of intact sediment cores from the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea, were conducted to estimate the response of sediment nutrient fluxes to various near-bottom water oxygen conditions. The experiment was performed in the laboratory using a batch-mode assay type system on the sediment cores held at 4 degrees C and oxygen concentrations maintained at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mg l(-1). The results from the experiment were subsequently used to optimise the fit of the sediment denitrification sub-model of the Gulf of Riga basin. Sedimentwater fluxes of phosphate were low and directed out of the sediments under all treatments, demonstrating a general decreasing tendency with increasing near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The sediment-water fluxes of ammonium and nitrate + nitrite demonstrated opposing trends: ammonium fluxes decreased whereas nitrate + nitrite fluxes increased with rising near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The modelled fluxes agreed well with the measured ones, with correlation coefficients of 0.75, 0.63 and 0.88 for ammonium, nitrate + nitrite and phosphate fluxes respectively. The denitrification rate in sediments was simulated at oxygen concentrations from -2 to 10 mg l(-1). At oxygen concentrations < 2 mg l(-1) the modelled denitrification was sustained by nitrate transport from water overlying the sediments. With increasing oxygen concentrations the simulated denitrification switched from the process fuelled by nitrates originating from the overlying water (D-w) to one sustained by nitrates originating from the coupled sedimentary nitrification - denitrification (D-n). D-n reached its maximum at an oxygen concentration of 5 mg l(-1).

  • 16.
    Eklof, Johan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Austin, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Bergström, Ulf
    Donadi, Serena
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Eriksson, Britas D. H. K.
    Hansen, Joakim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Sundblad, Göran
    Size matters: relationships between body size and body mass of common coastal, aquatic invertebrates in the Baltic Sea2017In: PeerJ, ISSN 2167-8359, E-ISSN 2167-8359, Vol. 5Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background. Organism biomass is one of the most important variables in ecological studies, making biomass estimations one of the most common laboratory tasks. Biomass of small macroinvertebrates is usually estimated as dry mass or ash-free dry mass (hereafter `DM' vs. 'AFDM') per sample; a laborious and time consuming process, that often can be speeded up using easily measured and reliable proxy variables like body size or wet (fresh) mass. Another common way of estimating AFDM (one of the most accurate but also time-consuming estimates of biologically active tissue mass) is the use of AFDM/DM ratios as conversion factors. So far, however, these ratios typically ignore the possibility that the relative mass of biologically active vs. non-active support tissue (e.g., protective exoskeleton or shell)-and therefore, also AFDM/DM ratios-may change with body size, as previously shown for taxa like spiders, vertebrates and trees. Methods. We collected aquatic, epibenthic macroinvertebrates (>1 mm) in 32 shallow bays along a 360 km stretch of the Swedish coast along the Baltic Sea; one of the largest brackish water bodies on Earth. We then estimated statistical relationships between the body size (length or height in mm), body dry mass and ash-free dry mass for 14 of the most common taxa; five gastropods, three bivalves, three crustaceans and three insect larvae. Finally, we statistically estimated the potential influence of body size on the AFDM/DM ratio per taxon. Results. For most taxa, non-linear regression models describing the power relationship between body size and (i)DM and (ii) AFDM fit the data well (as indicated by low SE and high R-2). Moreover, for more than half of the taxa studied (including the vast majority of the shelled molluscs), body size had a negative influence on organism AFDM/DM ratios. Discussion. The good fit of the modelled power relationships suggests that the constants reported here can be used to quickly estimate organism dry-and ash-free dry mass based on body size, thereby freeing up considerable work resources. However, the considerable differences in constants between taxa emphasize the need for tax on specific relationships, and the potential dangers associated with ignoring body size. The negative influence of body size on the AFDM/DM ratio found in a majority of the molluscs could be caused by increasingly thicker shells with organism age, and/or spawning-induced loss of biologically active tissue in adults. Consequently, future studies utilizing AFDM/DM (and presumably also AFDM/wet mass) ratios should carefully assess the potential influence of body size to ensure more reliable estimates of organism body mass.

  • 17.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Claremar, Björn
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 43, no 3, 337--351 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate

  • 18.
    Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Tracing terrestrial DOC in the Baltic Sea - a 3-D model study2016In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 30, no 2, 134-148 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The fate of terrestrial organic matter brought to the coastal seas by rivers, and its role in the global carbon cycle, are still not very well known. Here the degradation rate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOCter) is studied in the Baltic Sea, a subarctic semi-enclosed sea, by releasing it as a tracer in a 3-D circulation model and applying linear decay constants. A good agreement with available observational data is obtained by parameterizing the degradation in two rather different ways; one by applying a decay time on the order of 10 years to the whole pool of DOCter, and one by dividing the DOCter into one refractory pool and one pool subject to a decay time on the order of 1 year. The choice of parameterization has a significant effect on where in the Baltic Sea the removal takes place, which can be of importance when modeling the full carbon cycle and the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. In both cases the biogeochemical decay operates on time scales less than the water residence time. Therefore only a minor fraction of the DOCter reaches the North Sea, whereas approximately 80% is removed by internal sinks within the Baltic Sea. This further implies that DOCter mineralization is an important link in land-sea-atmosphere cycling of carbon in coastal- and shelf seas that are heavily influenced by riverine DOC.

  • 19.
    Griffiths, Jennifer R.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Kadin, Martina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nascimento, Francisco J. A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Tamelander, Tobias
    Törnroos, Anna
    Bonaglia, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Lund University, Sweden.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Brüchert, Volker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Järnström, Marie
    Kotta, Jonne
    Lindegren, Martin
    Nordström, Marie C.
    Norkko, Alf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Olsson, Jens
    Weigel, Benjamin
    Zydelis, Ramunas
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Winder, Monika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world2017In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 23, no 6, 2179-2196 p.Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.

  • 20.
    Guban, Peter
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Wennerström, Lovisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Elfvving, Tina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Sundelin, Brita
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Laikre, Linda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Genetic diversity in Monoporeia affinis at polluted and reference sites of the Baltic Bothnian Bay2015In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 93, no 1-2, 245-249 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The amphipod Monoporeia affinis plays an important role in the Baltic Sea ecosystem as prey and as detritivore. The species is monitored for contaminant effects, but almost nothing is known about its genetics in this region. A pilot screening for genetic variation at the mitochondrial COI gene was performed in 113 individuals collected at six sites in the northern Baltic. Three coastal sites were polluted by pulp mill effluents, PAHs, and trace metals, and two coastal reference sites were without obvious connection to pollution sources. An off-coastal reference site was also included. Contaminated sites showed lower levels of genetic diversity than the coastal reference ones although the difference was not statistically significant. Divergence patterns measured as Phi(ST) showed no significant differentiation within reference and polluted groups, but there was significant genetic divergence between them. The off-coastal sample differed significantly from all coastal sites and also showed lower genetic variation.

  • 21.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Carbon cycling in the Baltic Sea - The fate of allochthonous organic carbon and its impact on air-sea CO2 exchange2014In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, Vol. 129, 289-302 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical model (BALTSEM) is used to estimate carbon fluxes in the Baltic Sea over the 1980-2006 period. Budget calculations for organic carbon indicate that of the total allochthonous organic carbon (TOCT) supplied to the system, on average 56% is mineralized, 36% is exported out of the system, and the remainder is buried. River discharge is the main source of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the Baltic Sea. However, model results indicate that in the Gulf of Bothnia (northern Baltic Sea), the contribution to the DIC stock by TOCT mineralization is of the same order as direct river input of DIC In the Kattegat and Danish Straits (southwestern Baltic Sea) on the other hand, net uptake of atmospheric CO2 comprises the major DIC source. Despite large variations within the system, with net outgassing from some sub-basins and net absorption in others, the Baltic Sea as a whole was estimated to be a net sink for atmospheric CO2. Mineralization of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon (DOCT) influences air-sea CO2 exchange. A sensitivity study indicates that depending on the labile fraction of DOCT, the contribution from CO2 absorption to total external DIC sources can amount to 10-25%.

  • 22.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Modelling the C-13 and C-12 isotopes of inorganic and organic carbon in the Baltic Sea2015In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, Vol. 148, 122-130 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, C-12 and C-13 contents of all carbon containing state variables (dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, detrital carbon, and the carbon content of autotrophs and heterotrophs) have for the first time been explicitly included in a coupled physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea model. Different processes in the carbon cycling have distinct fractionation values, resulting in specific isotopic fingerprints. Thus, in addition to simulating concentrations of different tracers, our new model formulation improves the possibility to constrain the rates of processes such as CO2 assimilation, mineralization, and air-sea exchange. We demonstrate that phytoplankton production and respiration, and the related air-sea CO2 fluxes, are to a large degree controlling the isotopic composition of organic and inorganic carbon in the system. The isotopic composition is further, but to a lesser extent, influenced by river loads and deep water inflows as well as transformation of terrestrial organic carbon within the system. Changes in the isotopic composition over the 20th century have been dominated by two processes the preferential release of C-12 to the atmosphere in association with fossil fuel burning, and the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea related to increased nutrient loads under the second half of the century.

  • 23.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Omstedt, Anders
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    The air-water CO2 exchange of a coastal sea – a sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO2 in the Baltic Sea2015In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 120, no 8, 5342-5357 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, the BALTSEM model is used to estimate how air-water CO2 fluxes in the Baltic Sea respond to parameterizations of organic alkalinity (Aorg), gas transfer, and phytoplankton growth, and further to changes in river loads. The forcing data include the most complete compilation of Baltic river loads for dissolved inorganic and organic carbon (DIC and DOC) and total alkalinity (TA). In addition, we apply the most recent estimates of internal TA generation in the system. Our results clearly demonstrate how air-water CO2 fluxes of a coastal sea depend on river loads of carbon, TA, and nutrients as well the freshwater import itself. Long-term changes in DIC loads are shown to be compensated by corresponding changes in air-water CO2 exchange. By adding Aorg, a discrepancy in the carbonate system calculations was removed, and the simulated net CO2 absorption of the system decreased by 11%. A new parameterization for cyanobacteria growth significantly improved the seasonal development of pCO2 in the central Baltic Sea, although the net effect on CO2 fluxes was below 5%. By applying either a linear, quadratic, or cubic wind speed dependence for gas transfer, the long-term net CO2 exchange was adjusted by less than 5%. There is no clear indication that any one of these parameterizations provides a more accurate estimate of CO2 fluxes than the other two. Our findings are applicable in other coastal areas that are heavily influenced by river loads of TA, DIC, and DOC.

  • 24.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Savchuck, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Müller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Key processes in the coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling of the Baltic Sea2017In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 134, no 3, 301-317 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we examine pools of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea, both simulated and reconstructed from observations. We further quantify key fluxes in the C, N, and P cycling. Our calculations include pelagic reservoirs as well as the storage in the active sediment layer, which allows a complete coverage of the overall C, N, and P cycling on a system-scale. A striking property of C versus N and P cycling is that while the external supplies of total N and P (TN and TP) are largely balanced by internal removal processes, the total carbon (TC) supply is mainly compensated by a net export out of the system. In other words, external inputs of TN and TP are, in contrast to TC, rather efficiently filtered within the Baltic Sea. Further, there is a net export of TN and TP out of the system, but a net import of dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP). There is on the contrary a net export of both the organic and inorganic fractions of TC. While the pelagic pools of TC and TP are dominated by inorganic compounds, TN largely consists of organic N because allochthonous organic N is poorly degradable. There are however large basin-wise differences in C, N, and P elemental ratios as well as in inorganic versus organic fractions. These differences reflect both the differing ratios in external loads and differing oxygen conditions determining the redox-dependent fluxes of DIN and DIP.

  • 25.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    External total alkalinity loads versus internal generation: The influence of nonriverine alkalinity sources in the Baltic Sea2014In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, Vol. 28, no 11, 1358-1370 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we first present updated riverine total alkalinity (TA) loads to the various Baltic Sea sub-basins, based on monthly measurements in 82 of the major rivers that represent 85% of the total runoff. Simulations in the coupled physical-biogeochemical BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model) model show that these river loads together with North Sea water inflows are not sufficient to reproduce observed TA concentrations in the system, demonstrating the large influence from internal sources. Budget calculations indicate that the required internal TA generation must be similar to river loads in magnitude. The nonriverine source in the system amounts to about 2.4mmolm(-2) d(-1) on average. We argue here that the majority of this source is related to denitrification together with unresolved sediment processes such as burial of reduced sulfur and/or silicate weathering. This hypothesis is supported by studies on sediment processes on a global scale and also by data from sediment cores in the Baltic Sea. In a model simulation with all internal TA sources and sinks switched on, the net absorption of atmospheric CO2 increased by 0.78mol C m(-2) yr(-1) compared to a simulation where TA was treated as a passive tracer. Our results clearly illustrate how pelagic TA sources together with anaerobic mineralization in coastal sediments generate a significant carbon sink along the aquatic continuum, mitigating CO2 evasions from coastal and estuarine systems.

  • 26.
    Halling, Christina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Tano, Stina
    Eggertsen, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Buriyo, Amelia
    Msuya, Flower
    Wikström, Sofia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    The introduction of South East Asian seaweed and its ecological implications; Can native East African Eucheuma denticulatum and Kappaphycus alvarezii be a potential alternative for farming?Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The seaweed farming of eucheumoids in East Africa is solely based on introduced South East Asian (SEA) haplotypes of the carrageenophytes Eucheuma and Kappaphycus. As overexploitation of natural seaweed resources lead to a decline in harvest and export, commercial seaweed farming was started using highly productive SEA strains of the same genus introduced from the Philippines to Zanzibar in 1989.  Initially, productivity was high, the sector grew rapidly and seaweed farming soon became an important livelihood. Today, the industry faces various challenges such as decreased productivity and high rates of diseases and epiphytic infestations. Continuous introduction of foreign stock for cultivation vitalization might not be the solution, as escapees of SEA Eucheuma denticulatum have been found spreading into natural environments around Zanzibar with uncertain ecological consequences.  We suggest that indigenous haplotypes of E. denticulatum and Kappaphycus alvarezii should be re-evaluated for farming potential,  for increasing the genetic diversity and hence resilience within stocks.

    This study is a first step towards a reassessment of farming potential of East African (EA) haplotypes. Molecularly identified haplotypes of E. denticulatum and K. alvarezii were tested in in-situ farming conditions in Zanzibar, and growth rates, grazing and epiphytes were compared between EA and SEA haplotypes. Results show, except for an overall decreased growth compared to previous studies, that growth rate was site dependent and that SEA Eucheuma haplotypes have a higher growth rate (1.3 ±1.8 - 3.6 ±1.9% per day) compared to EA haplotypes (0.2 ±1.0 - 2.0 ±0.4% per day). No significant differences were found in grazing rate between native and introduced Eucheuma haplotypes, while native Kappaphycus was more prone to grazing. 

    In conclusion the farming potential for native E. denticulatum, is not rejected but underlines that there is an urgent need of continued search for native East African seaweed resources and a further identification of their desirable traits. If successful, this would enable East African seaweed industry to further expansion and secure its ecological and economical sustainability.

  • 27.
    Hansen, Joakim
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Uppföljning av bottenvegetation i grunda Östersjövikar: Varians- och precisionsanalyser av data insamlade med visuella metoder genom snorkling2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Syftet med den här studien var att analysera variation i bottenvegetation i tid och rum, samt precision i insamlandet av data för att ge rekommendationer för uppföljning av grunda vikar i Östersjön (habitatdirektivets naturtyp laguner 1150, med undergrupperna 1153 och 1154). I studien har variation analyserats avseende skillnader på olika geografisk skala (vik, län, havsområde) samt inventeringsår. Analysen utfördes på data som samlats in i den här miljön i lite mer än ett decennium (2001–2014), där stickprovsmetoder med visuell observation i 50×50-cm prov längs transekter eller slumpvist placerade stationer á 10 m diameter tillämpats. De responsvariabler som studerades var antal arter, antal typiska arter, täckningsgrad, två index baserade på indikatorarter, samt andelen långskottsvegetation. Variationen i de undersökta variablerna var störst inom vikar och mellan vikar, medan den var liten mellan län och havsområden. Det var även en viss variation mellan år, men den var inte samstämmig mellan vikar de olika åren. Vegetationens täckningsgrad varierade mest medan antalet arter och indexet beräknat på antalet indikatorarter varierade minst. Baserat på resultaten föreslås för samtliga havsområden att minst 100 små inventerings-rutor (0,25 m2) eller 30 större stationer (79 m2) bör inventeras per vik för att få en god precision* i medelvärdesskattning av antal arter och täckningsgraden av bottenvegetation per vik. Detta motsvarar ungefär 8 arbetstimmar med den första metoden, respektive 20 arbetstimmar med den andra metoden (fördelat på två personer). Med en lägre provtagningsinsats om 70 små inventeringsrutor (ca 6 h) eller 12 stationer (8 h) per vik nås en lägre men acceptabel precision**. Vid uppföljning av antal arter, typiska arter, täckningsgrad, indikatorartsindexen och andel långskottsvegetation på havsområdesnivå krävs att minst 16 vikar undersöks för att nå en god precision* i norra Egentliga Östersjön. För kumulativt artantal krävs att minst 8 vikar per naturtypsundergrupp provtas eftersom antalet arter och artsammansättningen skiljer mellan naturtypsundergrupperna i det här havsområdet. Då variationen mellan vikar var större i södra Egentliga Östersjön och Bottniska viken än i norra Egentliga Östersjön krävs en provtagning av 20 till 30 vikar per havsområde för att nå en god precision* i medelvärdesskattningar av de undersökta responsvariablerna i de två förstnämnda havsområdena. Med 16 vikar per havsområde når man dock en lägre, men acceptabel, precisionsnivå**. För god precision avseende mellanårsvariation föreslås en provtagning om sex år för de undersökta uppföljningsvariablerna. Resultaten som redovisas i den här studien kompletterar de undersökningar som gjorts av variation i fiskyngelförekomst i samma typ av Östersjövikar och tillsammans kan studierna utgöra en grund för att utforma uppföljningsprogram av grunda vikar i Östersjön.

  • 28.
    Hansen, Joakim P.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Snickars, Martin
    Applying macrophyte community indicators to assess anthropogenic pressures on shallow soft bottoms2014In: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 738, no 1, 171-189 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Vegetated soft bottoms are under pressure due to a number of anthropogenic stressors, such as coastal exploitation and eutrophication. The ecological value of these biotopes has gained recognition through international conventions and the EU directives, which request methods for assessment of the environmental status of coastal areas. However, currently there is no appropriate method for assessing the status of shallow vegetated soft bottoms in the northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, we developed a macrophyte community index and tested its response in relation to important pressures (eutrophication and boating activity) and natural gradients (topographic openness, depth and salinity) on shallow bays in the northern Baltic Sea. The macrophyte index, and hence the proportion of sensitive to tolerant species, decreased with increasing phosphorus concentration, turbidity and level of boating activity, while the cumulative cover of macrophytes only showed a negative trend in response to increasing turbidity. Juvenile fish abundance was positively related to the index, indicating importance of sensitive macrophyte species for ecosystem functioning. As the index was tested in a wide geographic area, and showed a uniform response across natural gradients, it is a promising tool for assessment of environmental status that may be applied also in other vegetated soft-bottom areas.

  • 29. Heymans, Johanna J.
    et al.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Regime shifts in the Northern Benguela ecosystem: Challenges for management2016In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 331, 151-159 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An existing Ecopath with Ecosim model of the Northern Benguela ecosystem for 1956, previously fitted to time series for 50 years, was used to describe the impact that the different pressures (fishing and climate drivers) had on the structure of the ecosystem. Ecological network analysis indices and Integrated Trend Assessment of the input data and model outputs were used to describe the changes in this ecosystem over time. We test the hypothesis that the system has been reorganised over the course of the past 50 years, probably due to the cumulative effects of overfishing and environmental drivers such as the Benguela Nifio, showing two large changes, with a transition period between the early 1970s and the early 1980s. The ecosystem has moved into a new stable state and this reorganised system will need a large shift to change with the consequential change not necessarily being back towards the pre-existing system.

  • 30. Hong, Bongghi
    et al.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    McCrackin, Michelle
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Yershova, Alexandra
    Pakhomau, Aliaksandr
    Advances in NANI and NAPI accounting for the Baltic drainage basin: spatial and temporal trends and relationships to watershed TN and TP fluxes2017In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 133, no 3, 245-261 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to assess the progress toward eutrophication management goals, it is important to understand trends in land-based nutrient use. Here we present net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) for 2000 and 2010 for the Baltic Sea watershed. Overall, across the entire Baltic, between the 5-year periods centered on 2000 and 2010, NANI and NAPI decreased modestly by -6 and -4%, respectively, but with substantial regional variation, including major increases in the Gulf of Riga drainage basin (+19 and +58%, respectively) and decreases in the Danish Straits drainage basin (-25 and -40% respectively). The changes were due primarily to changes in mineral fertilizer use. Mineral fertilizers dominated inputs, at 57% of both NANI and NAPI in 2000, increasing to 68 and 70%, respectively, by 2010. Net food and feed imports declined over that period, corresponding to increased crop production; either fewer imports of food and feedstocks were required to feed humans and livestock, or more of these commodities were exported. A strong linear relationship exists between regional net nutrient inputs and riverine nutrient fluxes for both periods. About 17% of NANI and 4.7% of NAPI were exported to the sea in 2000; these relationships did not significantly differ from those for 2010. Changes in NANI from 2000 to 2010 across basins were directly proportional rather than linearly related to changes in total N (TN) fluxes to the sea (i.e., no change in NANI suggests no change in TN flux). Similarly, for all basins except those draining to the Baltic Proper, changes in NAPI were proportional to changes in total P (TP) fluxes. The Danish Straits decreased most between 2000 and 2010, where NANI and NAPI declined by 25 and 40%, respectively, and corresponding fluxes of TN and TP declined 31 and 18%, respectively. For the Baltic Proper, NAPI was relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, while riverine TP fluxes decreased 25%, due possibly to lagged effects of fertilizer reduction resulting from socio-political changes in the early 1990s or improvements in sewage treatment capabilities. For most regions, further reductions in NANI and NAPI could be achieved by more efficient production and greater substitution of manure for imported mineral fertilizers.

  • 31.
    Humborg, Christoph
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Geibel, Marc C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Anderson, Leif G.
    Björk, Göran
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Sundbom, Marcus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Thornton, Brett F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ek, Jörgen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Semiletov, Igor
    Sea-air exchange patterns along the central and outer East Siberian Arctic Shelf as inferred from continuous CO2, stable isotope, and bulk chemistry measurements2017In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 31, no 7, 1173-1191 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This large-scale quasi-synoptic study gives a comprehensive picture of sea-air CO2 fluxes during the melt season in the central and outer Laptev Sea (LS) and East Siberian Sea (ESS). During a 7 week cruise we compiled a continuous record of both surface water and air CO2 concentrations, in total 76,892 measurements. Overall, the central and outer parts of the ESAS constituted a sink for CO2, and we estimate a median uptake of 9.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) or 6.6 Tg C yr(-1). Our results suggest that while the ESS and shelf break waters adjacent to the LS and ESS are net autotrophic systems, the LS is a net heterotrophic system. CO2 sea-air fluxes for the LS were 4.7 g C m(-2) yr(-1), and for the ESS we estimate an uptake of 7.2 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13(DIC) and delta C-13(CO2)) in the water column indicates that the LS is depleted in delta C-13(DIC) compared to the Arctic Ocean (ArcO) and ESS with an offset of 0.5% which can be explained by mixing of delta C-13(DIC)-depleted riverine waters and 4.0 Tg yr(-1) respiration of OCter; only a minor part (0.72 Tg yr(-1)) of this respired OCter is exchanged with the atmosphere. Property-mixing diagrams of total organic carbon and isotope ratio (delta C-13(SPE-DOC)) versus dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration diagram indicate conservative and nonconservative mixing in the LS and ESS, respectively. We suggest land-derived particulate organic carbon from coastal erosion as an additional significant source for the depleted delta C-13(DIC).

  • 32. Isaev, A. V.
    et al.
    Eremina, T. R.
    Ryabchenko, V. A.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. St. Petersburg State University, Russia.
    Model estimates of the impact of bioirrigation activity of Marenzelleria spp. on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem in a changing climate2017In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 171, 81-88 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Drastic changes have occurred in the Eastern Gulf of Finland ecosystem after recent invasion and establishment of polychaete Marenzelleria spp. Possible mechanisms of these changes are explored with the help of three-dimensional ecosystem model SPBEM. Relative significance of bioirrigation activity is studied by comparison of two climate change scenario simulations, which include or disregard Marenzelleria effects. The novel results obtained with this approach demonstrate that on a system level biogeochemical consequences of both implemented climate changes scenario and polychaete activity are equivalent to a weakening of vicious circle of the Baltic Sea eutrophication. The eutrophication-mitigating effects of the Marenzelleria invasion into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, revealed by the long-term field measurements, are explained by simulation-based considerations.

  • 33. Jilbert, Tom
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Funkey, Carolina P.
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Glacio-isostatic control on hypoxia in a high-latitude shelf basin2015In: Geology, ISSN 0091-7613, E-ISSN 1943-2682, Vol. 43, no 5, 427-430 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In high-latitude continental shelf environments, late Pleistocene glacial overdeepening and early Holocene eustatic sea-level rise combined to create restricted marine basins with a high vulnerability to oxygen depletion. Here we show that ongoing glacio-isostatic rebound during the Holocene may have played an important role in determining the distribution of past hypoxia in these environments by controlling the physical exchange of water masses and the distribution of large-scale phosphorus (P) sinks. We focus on the Baltic Sea, where sediment records from a large, presently oxic sub-basin show evidence for intense hypoxia and cyanobacteria blooms during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Using paleobathymetric modeling, we show that this period was characterized by enhanced deep-water exchange, allowing widespread phosphorus regeneration. Intra-basin sills then shoaled over a period of several thousand years, enhancing P burial in one of the sub-basins. Together with climate forcing, this may have caused the termination of hypoxia throughout the Baltic Sea. Similar rearrangements of physical and chemical processes likely occurred in response to glacio-isostatic rebound in other high-latitude shelf basins during the Holocene.

  • 34.
    Joakim, Hansen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Undervattensvegetation på mjukbottnar i Blekinge läns kustvatten: En sammanställning och analys av inventeringar utförda 2001–20082010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I den här studien sammanställdes inventeringar av vattenväxter utförda mellan år 2001 – 2008 i 25 vattenförekomster i Blekinge skärgård. Syftet med studien var att analysera rumsliga variationer i växtartsammansättning på mjukbotten, samt undersöka vilka arter som är representativa respektive unika för en viss typ av miljö. Vidare syftade projektet till att undersöka hur väl variationen i artsammansättning kan förklaras av skillnader i vågexponering, djup och närsaltsbelastning. Resultaten visade att artsammansättningen på mjukbotten i Blekinge skärgård är relativt lika mellan flertalet vattenförekomster. Endast några få vattenförekomster hade en artsammansättning markant skild från de övriga. De vanligaste arterna i det sammanställda datamaterialet var borstnate Potamogeton pectinatus, lösliggande blåstång Fucus vesiculosus, natingar Ruppia spp., ålgräs Zostera marina, axslinga Myriophyllum spicatum samt trådformiga alger. Dessa arter påträffades i flertalet av vattenförekomsterna. Ovanliga arter var rödsträfse Chara tomentosa, murkelalg Leathesia difformis, hjulmöja Ranunculus circinatus, slangalger Vaucheriaceae, korsandmat Lemna trisulca och havsrufse Tolypella nidifica. Dessa arter påträffades endast i enstaka vattenförekomster. Artsammansättningen i vågexponerade djupa miljöer skilde sig signifikant från artsammansättningen i vågexponerade grunda och i skyddade grunda miljöer. Vidare skilde artsammansättningen signifikant mellan vattenförekomster med hög närsaltsbelastning och vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltbelastning. Vattenförekomster med hög närsaltbelastning hade högre täckningsgrad av trådformiga alger, natingar Ruppia spp., ålnate Potamogeton perfoliatus och havsnajas Najas marina än vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltsbelastning. Omvänt hade vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltsbelastning högre täckningsgrad av blåstång Fucus vesiculosus, ålgräs Zostera marina, borstnate Potamogeton pectinatus och sudare Chorda filum. Skillnader i koncentration av totalfosfor och totalkväve kunde förklara en förhållandevis stor del av variationen i artsammansättning mellan vattenförekomsterna. Skillnader i närsaltsbelastning samvarierade med skärgårdsgradienten, exempelvis fanns entydlig samvariation mellan koncentrationen totalkväve och salthalt. Detta gör det svårt att urskilja effekter av enskilda miljöfaktorer på artsammansättningen.

  • 35.
    Joakim P., Hansen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Effects of shore-level displacement on the ecology of Baltic Sea bays2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the up to date understanding of changes in ecological structure of small Baltic Sea bays following shore-level displacement and isolation of bays from the sea. It was producedas a part of the biosphere research programme, which has a strong emphasis on the characterization of properties and processes affecting the fate of potentially released radionuclides from the suggested repository of nuclear waste in the bedrock of the Forsmark area. The report has a focus on ecology and gives a description of input data, methodology and results on changes in flora and fauna communities, as well as some abiotic factors, with topographic isolation of bays from the sea. It is intended to describe the properties and conditions at the Forsmark site and to give information essential for demonstrating site specific understanding of processes and properties linked to a sea-to-lake succession. Long-term landscape development in the Forsmark area is dependent on two main and partly interdependent factors; shore-level displacement and climate variations. These two factors in combination strongly affect a number of processes, which in turn influence the development of ecosystems. Some examples of such processes are erosion and sedimentation, primary production and decomposition of organic matter. In this work focus has been to report changes in the structure and biomass of flora and fauna communities, which affect primary production, and influence the processes of decomposition of organic matter and sedimentation. A section of the study also deals with the biological processes of primary production, autotrophic carbon uptake and influence of allochtonous energy. The study is part of a description of the Forsmark ecosystem succession during a glacial cycle, which is one of the main objectives of the biosphere modelling at the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB). The biomass of macrofauna was found to decrease with increasing isolation of bays. The changes in the macrofauna community also reflected the animals ability to re-colonize an unstable habitat, where slow colonizers with passively dispersed larvae were almost absent from the most isolated bays. Fast colonizers – particularly the ones with flying adults (insects) – were however found inhigher proportions in isolated bays. Contrary to the macrofauna and flora, the zooplankton and juvenile fish increased in biomass with increasing bay isolation. This study describes a significant change in ecological properties of Baltic Sea bays with shore-level displacement. This change affects ecosystem processes which may be of importance for the fate of potentially released radionuclides to the biosphere.

  • 36.
    Juston, John
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Data-driven Nutrient-landscape Relationships across Regions and Scales2016In: Water environment research, ISSN 1061-4303, E-ISSN 1554-7531, Vol. 88, no 11, 2023-2031 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous studies have identified relationships between nutrient exports and upstream conditions, but have often disconnected interpretations from hydrological flows and changes. Here, we investigated basic relationships between largely flow-independent nutrient concentrations and two key descriptors of upstream landscape and human activity: population density and arable land cover. Consistent data were gathered from previous studies of the Baltic Sea and Mississippi River basins. These data span wide ranges of subcatchment scales, hydroclimatic conditions, and landscape characteristics. In general, investigated relationships were stronger in the Baltic than in the Mississippi region and stronger for total nitrogen (TN) than total phosphorous (TP) concentrations. However, TN concentration was both highly and consistently correlated to arable land cover across all scales and both regions. These findings support that TN export from catchments is dictated principally by retention and slow release from subsurface legacy stores while export TP concentrations appear to be dictated more by faster particulate surface transport.

  • 37. Kahru, Mati
    et al.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Changing seasonality of the Baltic Sea2016In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, no 4, 1009-1018 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystem. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17-36 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes, such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season, in several variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000 W m(-2) of surface incoming short-wave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 degrees C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), and the period with Ked490 over 0.4 m(1) has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013 -i.e., quadrupled. The period with satellite-estimated CHL of at least 3 mg m(-3) has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now shifted to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July.

  • 38. Kauppi, L.
    et al.
    Norkko, J.
    Ikonen, J.
    Norkko, Alf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Seasonal variability in ecosystem functions: quantifying the contribution of invasive species to nutrient cycling in coastal ecosystems2017In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 572, 193-207 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Benthic ecosystems at temperate and high latitudes experience marked seasonal variation in the environmental factors affecting nutrient remineralization processes both directly and indirectly through their effects on the benthic communities. The invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria represents new functionality in Baltic Sea sediments through its deep burrowing and extensive gallery formation, thus possibly greatly affecting benthic oxygen and nutrient fluxes. We assessed the seasonal contribution of Marenzelleria spp. to fluxes of solutes in monthly field measurements at 2 sites, 10 and 33 m deep, in the northern Baltic Proper over 1 yr. In general, the fluxes of inorganic nutrients and oxygen were higher during summer than during winter, and the seasonal variation was more pronounced at the deeper, more biologically active site. By using variation partitioning, we were able to demonstrate that Marenzelleria and other macrofauna could account for up to 92% of the variation in the fluxes depending on the site and season. Fauna was the most important in predicting the fluxes in spring when the sediment organic content and the abundance of juvenile Marenzelleria spp. were highest, while during e.g. winter, the influence of Marenzelleria spp., even though abundant, on solute fluxes was negligible. The results from this study have implications for management, and, importantly, for the modelling of nutrient budgets often based on values from studies conducted during the summer period only, thus possibly greatly miscalculating the annual nutrient fluxes.

  • 39. Korth, F.
    et al.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Frey, C.
    Moros, C.
    Voss, M.
    Nitrate source identification in the Baltic Sea using its isotopic ratios in combination with a Bayesian isotope mixing model2014In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 11, no 17, 4913-4924 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nitrate (NO3-) is the major nutrient responsible for coastal eutrophication worldwide and its production is related to intensive food production and fossil-fuel combustion. In the Baltic Sea NO3- inputs have increased 4-fold over recent decades and now remain constantly high. NO3- source identification is therefore an important consideration in environmental management strategies. In this study focusing on the Baltic Sea, we used a method to estimate the proportional contributions of NO3- from atmospheric deposition, N-2 fixation, and runoff from pristine soils as well as from agricultural land. Our approach combines data on the dual isotopes of NO3- (delta N-15-NO3- and delta O-18-NO3-) in winter surface waters with a Bayesian isotope mixing model (Stable Isotope Analysis in R, SIAR). Based on data gathered from 47 sampling locations over the entire Baltic Sea, the majority of the NO3- in the southern Baltic was shown to derive from runoff from agricultural land (33-100 %), whereas in the northern Baltic, i.e. the Gulf of Bothnia, NO3- originates from nitrification in pristine soils (34-100 %). Atmospheric deposition accounts for only a small percentage of NO3- levels in the Baltic Sea, except for contributions from northern rivers, where the levels of atmospheric NO3- are higher. An additional important source in the central Baltic Sea is N-2 fixation by diazotrophs, which contributes 49-65% of the overall NO3- pool at this site. The results obtained with this method are in good agreement with source estimates based upon delta N-15 values in sediments and a three-dimensional ecosystem model, ERGOM. We suggest that this approach can be easily modified to determine NO3- sources in other marginal seas or larger near-coastal areas where NO3- is abundant in winter surface waters when fractionation processes are minor.

  • 40.
    Larsson, Ulf
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Nyberg, Svante
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Zakrisson, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Hajdu, Susanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Walve, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Rolff, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Baltic Sea phytoplankton: Long-term variability of major groups and primary production in spring and summer related to nutrients and temperatureManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 41. Lehtoranta, Jouni
    et al.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Elken, Juri
    Dahlbo, Kim
    Kuosa, Harri
    Raateoja, Mika
    Kauppila, Pirkko
    Raike, Antti
    Pitkanen, Heikki
    Atmospheric forcing controlling inter-annual nutrient dynamics in the open Gulf of Finland2017In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 171, 4-20 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992-2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf.

  • 42. Lohrer, Andrew M.
    et al.
    Townsend, Michael
    Hailes, Sarah F.
    Rodil, Iván F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New Zealand; University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Cartner, Katie
    Pratt, Daniel R.
    Hewitt, Judi E.
    Influence of New Zealand cockles (Austrovenus stutchburyi) on primary productivity in sandflat-seagrass (Zostera muelleri) ecotones2016In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, ISSN 0272-7714, E-ISSN 1096-0015, Vol. 181, 238-248 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    New Zealand cockles (Austrovenus stutchburyi) are ecologically important, intertidal bivalves that have been shown to influence nutrient cycles and the productivity of microphytobenthos on sandflats. Here, we investigated the potential for cockles to impact the productivity of seagrass, Zostera muelleri, and examined interactions between these habitat-defining species where they co-occur. We sampled bivalve densities and sizes, sediment properties, and seagrass shoot densities across the boundaries of two seagrass patches on an intertidal sandflat in northern New Zealand, and measured dissolved oxygen and nutrient fluxes in light and dark benthic incubation chambers in conjunction with a 0-97% gradient in seagrass cover. Although gross primary production (GPP, mu mol O-2 m(-2) h(-1)) increased predictably with the cover of live seagrass, the density of cockles and sediment properties also contributed directly and indirectly. Seagrass cover was positively correlated with cockle density (ranging from 225 to 1350 individuals per m(2)), sediment mud percentage (0.5-9.5%), and organic matter content (0.5-2.2%), all of which can affect the efflux of ammonium (readily utilisable inorganic nitrogen) from sediments. Moreover, the cover of green seagrass blades plateaued (never exceeded 70%) in the areas of highest total seagrass cover, adding complexity to cockle-seagrass interactions and contributing to a unimodal cockleGPP relationship.

  • 43. Longo, C.
    et al.
    Hornborg, S.
    Bartolino, V.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Ciannelli, L.
    Libralato, S.
    Belgrano, A.
    Role of trophic models and indicators in current marine fisheries management2015In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 538, 257-272 p.Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The previous decade has witnessed a flourishing of studies on how fisheries and marine food webs interact, and how trophic models and indicators can be used for assessment and management purposes. Acknowledging the importance of complex interactions among species, fishermen and the environment has led to a shift from single species to an ecosystem-wide approach in the science supporting fisheries management (e.g. Johannesburg Declaration, Magnuson-Stevens Act). Moreover, fisheries managers today acknowledge that fishing activities are linked to a range of societal benefits and services, and their work is necessarily a multi-objective practice (i.e. ecosystem-based management). We argue that the knowledge accumulated thus far points to tropho-dynamic models and indicators as key tools for such multi-dimensional assessments. Nevertheless, trophodynamic approaches are still underutilised in fisheries management. More specifically, most management decisions continue to rely on single species and sector-specific models. Here we review examples of applications of trophodynamic indicators within fisheries assessments in well-studied ecosystems, and discuss progress made (as well as lack thereof) towards increased integration of these metrics into marine resource management. Having clarified how trophic indicators fit within current policy and management contexts, we propose ways forward to increase their use in view of future management challenges.

  • 44.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Jantze, Elin J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Winterdahl, Mattias
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    WHY MONITOR CARBON IN HIGH-ALPINE STREAMS?2016In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography, ISSN 0435-3676, E-ISSN 1468-0459, Vol. 98, no 3, 237-245 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this short communication, we report on dissolved organic and inorganic carbon concentrations from a summer stream monitoring campaign at the main hydrological catchment of the Tarfala Research Station in northern Sweden. Further, we place these unique high-alpine observations in the context of a relevant subset of Sweden's national monitoring programme. Our analysis shows that while the monitoring programme (at least for total organic carbon) may have relatively good representativeness across a range of forest coverages, alpine/tundra environments are potentially underrepresented. As for dissolved inorganic carbon, there is currently no national monitoring in Sweden. Since the selection of stream water monitoring locations and monitored constituents at the national scale can be motivated by any number of goals (or limitations), monitoring at the Tarfala Research Station along with other research catchment sites across Fennoscandia becomes increasingly important and can offer potential complementary data necessary for improving process understanding. Research catchment sites (typically not included in national monitoring programmes) can help cover small-scale landscape features and thus complement national monitoring thereby improving the ability to capture hot spots and hot moments of biogeochemical export. This provides a valuable baseline of current conditions in high-alpine environments against which to gauge future changes in response to potential climatic and land cover shifts.

  • 45.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Meidani, Roya
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    van der Velde, Ype
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model2015In: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, ISSN 1093-474X, E-ISSN 1752-1688, Vol. 51, no 2, 550-566 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land-management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high-flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.

  • 46. Matos, Marina N.
    et al.
    Lozada, Mariana
    Anselmino, Luciano E.
    Musumeci, Matías A.
    Henrissat, Bernard
    Jansson, Janet K.
    Mac Cormack, Walter P.
    Carroll, JoLynn
    Sjöling, Sara
    Lundgren, Leif
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Dionisi, Hebe M.
    Metagenomics unveils the attributes of the alginolytic guilds of sediments from four distant cold coastal environments2016In: Environmental Microbiology, ISSN 1462-2912, E-ISSN 1462-2920, Vol. 18, no 12, 4471-4484 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Alginates are abundant polysaccharides in brown algae that constitute an important energy source for marine heterotrophic bacteria. Despite the key role of alginate degradation processes in the marine carbon cycle, little information is available on the bacterial populations involved in these processes. The aim of this work was to gain a better understanding of alginate utilization capabilities in cold coastal environments. Sediment metagenomes from four high-latitude regions of both Hemispheres were interrogated for alginate lyase gene homologue sequences and their genomic context. Sediments contained highly abundant and diverse bacterial assemblages with alginolytic potential, including members of Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria, as well as several poorly characterized taxa. The microbial communities in Arctic and Antarctic sediments exhibited the most similar alginolytic profiles, whereas brackish sediments showed distinct structures with a higher proportion of novel genes. Examination of the gene neighbourhood of the alginate lyase homologues revealed distinct patterns depending on the potential lineage of the scaffolds, with evidence of evolutionary relationships among alginolytic gene clusters from Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. This information is relevant for understanding carbon fluxes in cold coastal environments and provides valuable information for the development of biotechnological applications from brown algae biomass.