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  • 1. Aghion, Philippe
    et al.
    Bergeaud, Antonin
    Boppart, Timo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Bunel, Simon
    Firm Dynamics and Growth Measurement in France2018In: Journal of the European Economic Association, ISSN 1542-4766, E-ISSN 1542-4774, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 933-956Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we use the same methodology as Aghion et al. (2017a) to compute missing growth estimates from creative destruction in France. We find that from 2004 to 2015, about 0.5 percentage point of real output growth per year is missed by the statistical office, which is about the same as what was found in the United States. We look at how missing growth varies across French sectors and regions, and we look at the underlying establishment and firm dynamics. In particular we show that the similar missing growth estimates between France and the United States hide noticeable differences in plant dynamics between the two countries.

  • 2.
    Almås, Ingvild
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Attanasio, Orazio
    Jalan, Jyotsna
    Oteiza, Francisco
    Vigneri, Marcella
    Using data differently and using different data2018In: Journal of Development Effectiveness, ISSN 1943-9342, E-ISSN 1943-9407, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 462-481Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The lack of adequate measures is often an impediment to robust policy evaluation. We discuss three approaches to measurement and data usage that have the potential to improve the way we conduct impact evaluations. First, the creation of new measures, when no adequate ones are available. Second, the use of multiple measures when a single one is not appropriate. And third, the use of machine learning algorithms to evaluate and understand programme impacts. We motivate the relevance of each of the categories by providing examples where they have proved useful in the past. We discuss the challenges and risks involved in each strategy and conclude with an outline of promising directions for future work.

  • 3.
    Almås, Ingvild
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Auglaend Johnsen, Ashild
    The cost of a growth miracle - reassessing price and poverty trends in China2018In: Review of economic dynamics (Print), ISSN 1094-2025, E-ISSN 1096-6099, Vol. 30, p. 239-264Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China's economic development in recent decades has been tremendous, but also subject to debate. This paper uses Engel curves to identify price levels and real incomes that are comparable across both time and space. Based on these, new poverty trends are presented. We find that the urban and coastal areas that have experienced the fastest economic development have also seen smaller price increases than the poorer rural and inland areas. Our measures reveal that China has experienced substantial poverty reduction in a time with high economic growth, but compared to both the World Bank measures and those based on official CPI adjustments, our measures suggest a more moderate poverty reduction. Our findings imply that poverty was reduced by 40 and not 66 percent using the $1 dollar a day measure.

  • 4. Björkman Nyqvist, Martina
    et al.
    Corno, Lucia
    de Walque, Damien
    Svensson, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Incentivizing Safer Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Lottery Experiment on HIV Prevention2018In: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, ISSN 1945-7782, E-ISSN 1945-7790, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 287-314Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the effect of a financial lottery program in Lesotho with relatively low expected payments but a chance to win a high prize conditional on negative test results for sexually transmitted infections. The intervention resulted in a 21.4 percent reduction in HIV incidence over two years. Lottery incentives appear to be particularly effective in targeting individuals with ex ante risky sexual behavior, consistent with the hypothesis that lotteries are more valued by individuals willing to take risks.

  • 5.
    Bold, Tessa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Kimenyi, Mwangi
    Mwabu, Germano
    Ng'ang'a, Alice
    Sandefur, Justin
    Experimental evidence on scaling up education reforms in Kenya2018In: Journal of Public Economics, ISSN 0047-2727, E-ISSN 1879-2316, Vol. 168, p. 1-20Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What constraints arise when translating successful NGO programs to improve public services in developing countries into government policy? We report on a randomized trial embedded within a nationwide reform of teacher hiring in Kenyan government primary schools. New teachers offered a fixed-term contract by an international NGO significantly raised student test scores, while teachers offered identical contracts by the Kenyan government produced zero impact. Observable differences in teacher characteristics explain little of this gap. Instead, data suggests that bureaucratic and political opposition to the contract reform led to implementation delays and a differential interpretation of identical contract terms. Additionally, contract features that produced larger learning gains in both the NGO and government treatment arms were not adopted by the government outside of the experimental sample.

  • 6.
    Boppart, Timo
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Krusell, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Mitman, Kurt
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Exploiting MIT Shocks in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies: The Impulse Response as a Numerical Derivative2018In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ISSN 0165-1889, E-ISSN 1879-1743, Vol. 89, p. 68-92Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a new method for computing equilibria in heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate uncertainty. The idea relies on an assumption that linearization offers a good approximation; we share this assumption with existing linearization methods. However, unlike those methods, the approach here does not rely on direct derivation of first-order Taylor terms. It also does not use recursive methods, whereby aggregates and prices would be expressed as linear functions of the state, usually a very high-dimensional object (such as the wealth distribution). Rather, we rely merely on solving nonlinearly for a deterministic transition path: we study the equilibrium response to a single, small “MIT shock” carefully. We then regard this impulse response path as a numerical derivative in sequence space and hence provide our linearized solution directly using this path. The method can easily be extended to the case of many shocks and computation time rises linearly in the number of shocks. We also propose a set of checks on whether linearization is a good approximation. We assert that our method is the simplest and most transparent linearization technique among currently known methods. The key numerical tool required to implement it is value-function iteration, using a very limited set of state variables.

  • 7.
    Broer, Tobias
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK.
    Securitization bubbles: Structured finance with disagreement about default risk2018In: Journal of Financial Economics, ISSN 0304-405X, E-ISSN 1879-2774, Vol. 127, no 3, p. 505-518Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An additional reason for the structured finance boom of the 2000s may have been disagreement about default risk of collateral assets. When risk-neutral investors disagree about average default probabilities, structuring collateral cash flow raises prices by concentrating optimists' demand on risky tranches. With disagreement about default correlation, low-correlation investors believe in diversification and pay high prices for senior tranches they deem riskless. High-correlation investors value junior tranches they expect to pay whenever aggregate conditions are good. Risk aversion and short selling through credit default swaps reduce the prices of both pass-through and structured securitizations but may increase the return to tranching.

  • 8.
    Calmfors, Lars
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Danielsson, Petter
    Ek, Simon
    Kolm, Ann-Sofie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Pekkarinen, Tuomas
    Skedingen, Per
    Hur ska fler komma in på arbetsmarknaden?2018Book (Other academic)
  • 9.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Your Loss Is My Gain: A Recruitment Experiment with Framed Incentives2018In: Journal of the European Economic Association, ISSN 1542-4766, E-ISSN 1542-4774, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 522-559Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As predicted by loss aversion, numerous studies find that penalties elicit greater effort than bonuses, even when the underlying payoffs are identical. However, loss aversion also predicts that workers will demand higher wages to accept penalty contracts. In six experiments I recruited workers online under framed incentive contracts to test the second prediction. None find evidence for the predicted distaste for penalty contracts. In four experiments penalty framing actually increased the job offer acceptance rate relative to bonus framing. I rule out a number of explanations, most notably self-commitment motives do not seem to explain the finding. Two experiments that manipulate salience are successful at eliminating the effect, but do not significantly reverse it. Overall, loss aversion seems to play surprisingly little role in this setting. The results also highlight the importance of behavioral biases for infrequent, binding decisions such as contract take-up. (JEL: D03, J41, D86)

  • 10.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Fetzer, Thiemo
    Ghatak, Maitreesh
    Commercialization and the decline of joint liability microcredit2018In: Journal of Development Economics, ISSN 0304-3878, E-ISSN 1872-6089, Vol. 134, p. 209-225Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Numerous authors point to a decline in joint liability microcredit, and rise in individual liability lending. But empirical evidence is lacking, and there have been no rigorous analyses of possible causes. We first show using the well-known MIX Market dataset that there is evidence for a decline. Second, we show theoretically that commercialization-an increase in competition and a shift from non-profit to for-profit lending (both of which are present in the data)-drives lenders to reduce their use of joint liability loan contracts. Third, we test the model's key predictions, and find support for them in the data.

  • 11.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Fetzer, Thiemo
    Ghatak, Maitreesh
    Market Structure and Borrower Welfare in Microfinance2018In: Economic Journal, ISSN 0013-0133, E-ISSN 1468-0297, Vol. 128, no 610, p. 1019-1046Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Motivated by recent controversies surrounding the role of commercial lenders in microfinance, and calls for regulation of the sector, we analyse borrower welfare under different market structures, considering a benevolent non-profit lender, a for-profit monopolist and a competitive credit market. To understand the magnitude of the effects analysed, we simulate the model with parameters estimated from the MIX Market database. Our results suggest that market power can have severe implications for borrower welfare, while despite possible enforcement externalities competition typically delivers similar borrower welfare to non-profit lending.

  • 12.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Ghatak, Maitreesh
    Is the credit worth it? For-profit lenders in microfinance with rational and behavioral borrowers2018In: Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, ISSN 1370-4788, E-ISSN 1467-8292, Vol. 89, no 1, p. 175-199Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The bulk of the literature on microcredit has focused on either not-for-profit lenders or assumes a perfectly competitive, zero-profit market equilibrium.Yet the market has experienced a significant shift toward for-profit lending and the as-sumptions of perfect competition are likely to be too strong in many locations. We reviewthe state of the literature on for-profit lending in microcredit, consider its implicationsfor both conventionally ‘rational’ borrowers and for borrowers with behavioral biases,and point out directions for future research.

  • 13.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Haushofer, Johannes
    Depression through the Lens of Economics: A Research Agenda2018In: The Economics of Poverty Traps / [ed] Christopher B. Barrett, Michael R. Carter, Jean-Paul Chavas, University of Chicago Press, 2018Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most prevalent mental illnesses worldwide. Existing evidence suggests that it has both economic causes and consequences, such as unemployment. However, depression has not received significant attention in the economics literature, and existing work is almost entirely empirical. We see great potential for traditional, theoretical economic analysis to both develop new insights about depression, and to form new connections to other areas of economics. In this paper, we begin with an overview of the canonical symptoms of depression, identifying a set of key facts that lend themselves well to economic analysis. We illustrate these facts with descriptive analysis of data from Indonesia. We then discuss what we see as fruitful avenues for new theoretical work, building on those facts.

  • 14.
    de Quidt, Jonathan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. CESifo, Germany.
    Haushofer, Johannes
    Roth, Christopher
    Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand2018In: The American Economic Review, ISSN 0002-8282, E-ISSN 1944-7981, Vol. 108, no 11, p. 3266-3302Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a technique for assessing robustness to demand effects of findings from experiments and surveys. The core idea is that by deliberately inducing demand in a structured way we can bound its influence. We present a model in which participants respond to their beliefs about the researcher's objectives. Bounds are obtained by manipulating those beliefs with "demand treatments." We apply the method to 11 classic tasks, and estimate bounds averaging 0.13 standard deviations, suggesting that typical demand effects are probably modest. We also show how to compute demand-robust treatment effects and how to structurally estimate the model.

  • 15. Ellingsen, Tore
    et al.
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Wengstrom, Erik
    How does communication affect beliefs in one-shot games with complete information?2018In: Games and Economic Behavior, ISSN 0899-8256, E-ISSN 1090-2473, Vol. 107, p. 153-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper experimentally studies unilateral communication of intentions in eight different two-player one-shot normal form games with complete information. We find that communication is used both to coordinate and to deceive, and that messages have a significant impact on beliefs and behavior even in dominance solvable games. Nash equilibrium and cognitive hierarchy jointly account for many regularities, but not all of the evidence. Sophisticated sender behavior is especially difficult to reconcile with existing models.

  • 16. Folke, Olle
    et al.
    Persson, Torsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. London School of Economics, UK.
    Rickne, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). Yale University, USA.
    Arbetslinjen och finanskris förklarar SD:s framgångar2018In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 5 septemberArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 17. Folke, Olle
    et al.
    Persson, Torsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. London School of Economics, UK.
    Rickne, Johanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). Yale University, USA.
    Ojämlikhet kan förstärka synen att invandring belastar statsfinanserna. Slutreplik2018In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 10 septemberArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 18. Hyytinen, Ari
    et al.
    Meriläinen, Jaakko
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Saarimaa, Tuukka
    Toivanen, Otto
    Tukiainen, Janne
    Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections2018In: American Political Science Review, ISSN 0003-0554, E-ISSN 1537-5943, Vol. 112, no 1, p. 68-81Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyze the effect of municipal employees' political representation in municipal councils on local public spending. We use within-party, as-good-as-random variation in close elections in the Finnish open-list proportional election system to quantify the effect. One more councilor employed by the public sector increases spending by about 1%. The effect comes largely through the largest party and is specific to the employment sector of the municipal employee. The results are consistent with public employees having an information advantage over other politicians, and thus, being able to influence policy.

  • 19. Hyytinen, Ari
    et al.
    Meriläinen, Jaakko
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Saarimaa, Tuukka
    Toivanen, Otto
    Tukiainen, Janne
    When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes2018In: Quantitative Economics, ISSN 1759-7323, E-ISSN 1759-7331, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 1019-1051Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state-of-the-art implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections.

  • 20. Jans, Jenny
    et al.
    Johansson, Per
    Nilsson, J. Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS), Sweden.
    Economic status, air quality, and child health: Evidence from inversion episodes2018In: Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 0167-6296, E-ISSN 1879-1646, Vol. 61, p. 220-232Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Normally, the temperature decreases with altitude, allowing air pollutants to rise and disperse. During inversion episodes, warmer air at higher altitude traps air pollutants at the ground. By merging vertical temperature profile data from NASA with pollution monitors and health care records, we show that inversions increase the PM10 levels by 25% and children's respiratory health problems by 5.5%. Low-income children are particularly affected, and differences in baseline health seem to be a key mediating factor behind the effect of pollution on the SES health gap. Policies that improve dissemination of information on inversion status may hence improve child health, either through private action or via policies that curb emissions during inversion episodes.

  • 21. Kolsrud, Jonas
    et al.
    Landais, Camille
    Nilsson, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Spinnewijn, Johannes
    The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden2018In: The American Economic Review, ISSN 0002-8282, E-ISSN 1944-7981, Vol. 108, no 4-5, p. 985-1033Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides a simple, yet robust framework to evaluate the time profile of benefits paid during an unemployment spell. We derive sufficient-statistics formulae capturing the marginal insurance value and incentive costs of unemployment-benefits paid at different times during a spell. Our approach allows us to revisit separate arguments for inclining or declining profiles put forward in the theoretical literature and to identify welfare-improving-changes in the benefit profile that account for all relevant arguments jointly: For the empirical implementation, we use administrative data on unemployment, linked to data on consumption, income, and wealth in Sweden. First, we exploit duration-dependent kinks in the replacement rate and find that, if anything, the moral hazard cost of benefits is larger when paid earlier the spell. Second, we find that the drop in consumption affecting the insurance value of benefits is large from the start of the spell, hut further increases throughout tie spell. In trading off insurance and incentives, our analysis suggests that the flat benefit profile in Sweden has been too generous overall. However, both from the insurance and the incentives side, we find no evidence to support the introduction of a declining tilt in the profile.

  • 22.
    Lindbeck, Assar
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. The Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden.
    Persson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Social Norms in Social Insurance2018In: Journal of Political Economy, ISSN 0022-3808, E-ISSN 1537-534X, Vol. 126, p. s116-S139Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyze how insurance arrangements, labor supply, moral hazard, and outright cheating are affected by social norms. One question is under what conditions norms may improve social welfare. Another is under what conditions people should be allowed to opt out of social insurance. We introduce an informal production sector to analyze the consequences of alternative assumptions about the information available to norm enforcers. This highlights one important aspect of norms, namely, that they may compensate for the insurer's limited information.

  • 23.
    Meriläinen, Jaakko
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Tukiainen, Janne
    Rank effects in political promotions2018In: Public Choice, ISSN 0048-5829, E-ISSN 1573-7101, Vol. 177, no 1-2, p. 87-109Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the effect of candidates' personal vote ranks on promotions to political power in an open list proportional representation system. Using a regression discontinuity design and data from Finnish local elections, we find that ranking first within a party enhances a politician's chances of getting promoted to the position of a municipal board chair, the most important task in Finnish local politics. Other ranks matter less. We document that the effect of ranking first is larger when there is less within-party competition, but the role of external competition is ambiguous. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism behind the rank effects is primarily unrelated to electoral incentives but rather to party-specific norms or political culture. Ranks seem to be, however, only a complement to other promotion criteria such as politicians' previous political experience or how close to the party lines their policy positions stand.

  • 24.
    Persson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Skult, Eva
    Tillämpad makroekonomi2018Collection (editor) (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Nationalekonomin brukar delas upp i två huvuddelar: mikroekonomi och makroekonomi. Inom mikroekonomin studerar man ekonomins grundläggande byggstenar, nämligen de enskilda hushållens och företagens beslut. Inom makroekonomin har man ett mer övergripande perspektiv; där studerar man de stora aggregaten, som arbetslöshet, tillväxt, ränta och inflation.



    Det är inom dessa områden som den politiska diskussionen är som hetast i dag. Varför är arbetslösheten så hög? Hur sköter Riksbanken sitt arbete egentligen? Varför svänger räntorna och växelkurserna så mycket? Hur ska man hantera finanskriser? Och varför är inkomstfördelningen så ojämn? Syftet med Tillämpad makroekonomi är att på ett enkelt och lättfattligt sätt presentera nationalekonomernas syn på dessa frågor.

  • 25.
    Sandberg, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Competing Identities: A Field Study of In‐group Bias Among Professional Evaluators2018In: Economic Journal, ISSN 0013-0133, E-ISSN 1468-0297, Vol. 128, no 613, p. 2131-2159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    I use data from the Olympic sport of dressage to explore in‐group biases among judges. Dressage – the only international sport with subjective performance evaluations in which men and women compete as equals – provides a rare opportunity to identify multiple in‐group biases in the same naturally occurring setting. While, on average, judges are not biased in favour of either gender, they exhibit substantial biases in favour of (i) athletes of their own nationality, and (ii) athletes of the same nationality as the other judges in the competition. Heterogeneity across competitions suggests that biases increase as group identity becomes more salient.

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