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  • 151. Weigel, Benjamin
    et al.
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Swedish Meteorological and Hydrographical Institute (SMHI), Sweden.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Snickars, Martin
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Long-term progression and drivers of coastal zoobenthos in a changing system2015Ingår i: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 528, s. 141-159Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal zones are facing climate-driven change coupled with escalating eutrophication. With increasing shifts in hydrographic conditions during the past few decades, a focal task is to understand how environmental drivers affect zoobenthic communities, which play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning. By using long-term data, spanning 40 yr (1973 to 2013) in the northern Baltic Sea, we showed a disparity in zoobenthic responses with pronounced changes in community composition and a trend towards decreased biomass in sheltered areas, while biomasses increased in exposed areas of the coastal zone. We used generalized additive modeling to show that bottom oxygen saturation, sea surface temperature and organic load of the sediments were the main environmental drivers behind contrasting patterns in biomass progression. Oxygen saturation alone explained over one third of the deviation in the biomass developments in sheltered areas, while exposed areas were mainly limited by organic content of the sediments. We analyzed high-resolution climate-scenario simulations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for the Baltic Sea region in combination with different nutrient load scenarios, for the end of the 21st century. The scenario outcomes showed negative trends in bottom oxygen concentrations throughout the coastal and archipelago zone along with overall increasing temperatures and primary production, and decreasing salinity. Our results suggest that these projected future conditions will strengthen the observed pattern in decreasing zoobenthic production in the immediate coastal zones. Moreover, the potential intensification of unfavorable conditions ex-panding seaward may lead to an expansion of biomass loss to more exposed sites.

  • 152.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Ulen, B.
    Bergstrom, L.
    Kleinman, P. J. A.
    Long-term trends in phosphorus leaching and changes in soil phosphorus with phytomining2015Ingår i: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, ISSN 0022-4561, E-ISSN 1941-3300, Vol. 70, nr 2, s. 121-132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Few mitigation strategies exist to reduce phosphorus (P) losses in leachate once soil P has built up. Phytomining, or harvesting a crop without application of fertilizer P to create a negative P balance, has been proposed as a strategy for lowering soil P levels and preventing P loss to runoff and leachate. In this study crops were grown and harvested over 7 to 16 years in undisturbed soil columns (105 cm [41 in] deep) with contrasting textures (loamy sand, sandy loam, silty clay loam, and clay) and high P levels, while P loss in leachate was measured. Soil test P in the topsoil (0 to 20 cm [0 to 8 in] depth) was significantly decreased from the beginning to the end of the study for all soils, while a significant decreasing trend in dissolved reactive P in leachate was only observed in one soil. Downward movement of P from the topsoil to deeper layers was indicated to occur in three out of four soils. Although phytomining lowered soil test P by 11% to 37% in topsoils over the 7 to 16 year period of the study, results indicate that soils with P content well above agronomic optimum may take a much longer time to reach the agronomic optimum.

  • 153. van Grinsven, Hans J. M.
    et al.
    Bouwman, Lex
    Cassman, Kenneth G.
    van Es, Harold M.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Beusen, Arthur H. W.
    Losses of Ammonia and Nitrate from Agriculture and Their Effect on Nitrogen Recovery in the European Union and the United States between 1900 and 20502015Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Quality, ISSN 0047-2425, E-ISSN 1537-2537, Vol. 44, nr 2, s. 356-367Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Historical trends and levels of nitrogen (N) budgets and emissions to air and water in the European Union and the United States are markedly different. Agro-environmental policy approaches also differ, with emphasis on voluntary or incentive-based schemes in the United States versus a more regulatory approach in the European Union. This paper explores the implications of these differences for attaining long-term policy targets for air and water quality. Nutrient surplus problems were more severe in the European Union than in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. The EU Nitrates and National Emission Ceilings directives contributed to decreases in fertilizer use, N surplus, and ammonia (NH3) emissions, whereas in the United States they stabilized, although NH3 emissions are still increasing. These differences were analyzed using statistical data for 1900-2005 and the global IMAGE model. IMAGE could reproduce NH3 emissions and soil N surpluses at different scales (European Union and United States, country and state) and N loads in the Rhine and Mississippi. The regulation-driven changes during the past 25 yr in the European Union have reduced public concerns and have brought agricultural N loads to the aquatic environment closer to US levels. Despite differences in agro-environmental policies and agricultural structure (more N-fixing soybean and more spatially separated feed and livestock production in the United States than in the European Union), current N use efficiency in US and EU crop production is similar. IMAGE projections for the IAASTD-baseline scenario indicate that N loading to the environment in 2050 will be similar to current levels. In the United States, environmental N loads will remain substantially smaller than in the European Union, whereas agricultural production in 2050 in the United States will increase by 30% relative to 2005, as compared with an increase of 8% in the European Union. However, in the United States, even rigorous mitigation with maximum recycling of manure N and a 25% reduction in fertilizer use will not achieve the policy target to halve the N export to the Gulf of Mexico.

  • 154.
    Sagerman, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Enge, Swantje
    Pavia, Henrik
    Wikström, Sofia A.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Low feeding preference of native herbivores for the successful non-native seaweed Heterosiphonia japonica2015Ingår i: Marine Biology, ISSN 0025-3162, E-ISSN 1432-1793, Vol. 162, nr 12, s. 2471-2479Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Non-native seaweeds constitute a conspicuous component of many benthic coastal communities. Seaweed invaders are known to significantly affect invaded communities, but relatively little is known about the mechanisms underlying their success. In this study, we explored the feeding preferences of three generalist herbivores for the successful non-native red alga Heterosiphonia japonica and native seaweed competitors. The experiments were conducted on the Swedish Skagerrak coast (58A degrees 52'N, 11A degrees 08'E) from July to August. Additionally, chemical and physical traits of the seaweeds were assessed to mechanistically explain herbivore preferences. The results showed that H. japonica was of low preference to native herbivores and that this was most likely explained by chemical properties of the invader. We were, however, not able to determine whether the low preference was caused by deterrent metabolites or low nutritional quality. We conclude that herbivore avoidance may be important for the survival and success of H. japonica in the introduced range and that efficient means of escaping herbivory may be a common feature of invaders in seaweed communities.

  • 155.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM).
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Modelling the C-13 and C-12 isotopes of inorganic and organic carbon in the Baltic Sea2015Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 148, s. 122-130Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, C-12 and C-13 contents of all carbon containing state variables (dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, detrital carbon, and the carbon content of autotrophs and heterotrophs) have for the first time been explicitly included in a coupled physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea model. Different processes in the carbon cycling have distinct fractionation values, resulting in specific isotopic fingerprints. Thus, in addition to simulating concentrations of different tracers, our new model formulation improves the possibility to constrain the rates of processes such as CO2 assimilation, mineralization, and air-sea exchange. We demonstrate that phytoplankton production and respiration, and the related air-sea CO2 fluxes, are to a large degree controlling the isotopic composition of organic and inorganic carbon in the system. The isotopic composition is further, but to a lesser extent, influenced by river loads and deep water inflows as well as transformation of terrestrial organic carbon within the system. Changes in the isotopic composition over the 20th century have been dominated by two processes the preferential release of C-12 to the atmosphere in association with fossil fuel burning, and the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea related to increased nutrient loads under the second half of the century.

  • 156. Stalnacke, P.
    et al.
    Pengerud, A.
    Vassiljev, A.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Hägg, H. E.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Humborg, Christop
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Andersen, H. E.
    Nitrogen surface water retention in the Baltic Sea drainage basin2015Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, nr 2, s. 981-996Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we estimate the surface water retention of nitrogen (N) in all the 117 drainage basins to the Baltic Sea with the use of a statistical model (MESAW) for source apportionment of riverine loads of pollutants. Our results show that the MESAW model was able to estimate the N load at the river mouth of 88 Baltic Sea rivers, for which we had observed data, with a sufficient degree of precision and accuracy. The estimated retention parameters were also statistically significant. Our results show that around 380 000 t of N are annually retained in surface waters draining to the Baltic Sea. The total annual riverine load from the 117 basins to the Baltic Sea was estimated at 570 000 t of N, giving a total surface water N retention of around 40 %. In terms of absolute retention values, three major river basins account for 50% of the total retention in the 117 basins; i.e. around 104 000 t of N are retained in Neva, 55 000 t in Vistula and 32 000 t in Oder. The largest retention was found in river basins with a high percentage of lakes as indicated by a strong relationship between N retention (%) and share of lake area in the river drainage areas. For example in Gota alv, we estimated a total N retention of 72 %, whereof 67% of the retention occurred in the lakes of that drainage area (Lake Vanern primarily). The obtained results will hopefully enable the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) to refine the nutrient load targets in the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), as well as to better identify cost-efficient measures to reduce nutrient loadings to the Baltic Sea.

  • 157. Longo, C.
    et al.
    Hornborg, S.
    Bartolino, V.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Ciannelli, L.
    Libralato, S.
    Belgrano, A.
    Role of trophic models and indicators in current marine fisheries management2015Ingår i: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 538, s. 257-272Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The previous decade has witnessed a flourishing of studies on how fisheries and marine food webs interact, and how trophic models and indicators can be used for assessment and management purposes. Acknowledging the importance of complex interactions among species, fishermen and the environment has led to a shift from single species to an ecosystem-wide approach in the science supporting fisheries management (e.g. Johannesburg Declaration, Magnuson-Stevens Act). Moreover, fisheries managers today acknowledge that fishing activities are linked to a range of societal benefits and services, and their work is necessarily a multi-objective practice (i.e. ecosystem-based management). We argue that the knowledge accumulated thus far points to tropho-dynamic models and indicators as key tools for such multi-dimensional assessments. Nevertheless, trophodynamic approaches are still underutilised in fisheries management. More specifically, most management decisions continue to rely on single species and sector-specific models. Here we review examples of applications of trophodynamic indicators within fisheries assessments in well-studied ecosystems, and discuss progress made (as well as lack thereof) towards increased integration of these metrics into marine resource management. Having clarified how trophic indicators fit within current policy and management contexts, we propose ways forward to increase their use in view of future management challenges.

  • 158.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Meidani, Roya
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    van der Velde, Ype
    Dahlke, Helen E.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM).
    Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model2015Ingår i: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, ISSN 1093-474X, E-ISSN 1752-1688, Vol. 51, nr 2, s. 550-566Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land-management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high-flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.

  • 159. Olsson, Jens
    et al.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Pöllumäe, Arno
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Ustups, Didzis
    Dinesen, Grete E.
    Peltonen, Heikki
    Putnis, Ivars
    Szymanek, Lena
    Simm, Mart
    Heikinheimo, Outi
    Gasyukov, Pavel
    Axe, Philip
    Bergström, Lena
    Temporal development of coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea over the past two decades2015Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 72, nr 9, s. 2539-2548Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal areas are among the most biologically productive aquatic systems worldwide, but face strong and variable anthropogenic pressures. Few studies have, however, addressed the temporal development of coastal ecosystems in an integrated context. This study represents an assessment of the development over time in 13 coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea region during the past two decades. The study covers between two to six trophic levels per system and time-series dating back to the early 1990s. We applied multivariate analyses to assess the temporal development of biological ecosystem components and relate these to potential driving variables associated with changes in climate, hydrology, nutrient status, and fishing pressure. Our results show that structural change often occurred with similar timing in the assessed coastal systems. Moreover, in 10 of the 13 systems, a directional development of the ecosystem components was observed. The variables representing key ecosystem components generally differed across systems, due to natural differences and limitation to available data. As a result of this, the correlation between the temporal development of the biological components in each area and the driving variables assessed was to some extent area-specific. However, change in nutrient status was a common denominator of the variables most often associated with changes in the assessed systems. Our results, additionally, indicate existing strengths as well as future challenges in the capacity of currently available monitoring data to support integrated assessments and the implementation of an integrated ecosystem-based approach to the management of the Baltic Sea coastal ecosystems.

  • 160.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Omstedt, Anders
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    The air-water CO2 exchange of a coastal sea – a sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO2 in the Baltic Sea2015Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 120, nr 8, s. 5342-5357Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, the BALTSEM model is used to estimate how air-water CO2 fluxes in the Baltic Sea respond to parameterizations of organic alkalinity (Aorg), gas transfer, and phytoplankton growth, and further to changes in river loads. The forcing data include the most complete compilation of Baltic river loads for dissolved inorganic and organic carbon (DIC and DOC) and total alkalinity (TA). In addition, we apply the most recent estimates of internal TA generation in the system. Our results clearly demonstrate how air-water CO2 fluxes of a coastal sea depend on river loads of carbon, TA, and nutrients as well the freshwater import itself. Long-term changes in DIC loads are shown to be compensated by corresponding changes in air-water CO2 exchange. By adding Aorg, a discrepancy in the carbonate system calculations was removed, and the simulated net CO2 absorption of the system decreased by 11%. A new parameterization for cyanobacteria growth significantly improved the seasonal development of pCO2 in the central Baltic Sea, although the net effect on CO2 fluxes was below 5%. By applying either a linear, quadratic, or cubic wind speed dependence for gas transfer, the long-term net CO2 exchange was adjusted by less than 5%. There is no clear indication that any one of these parameterizations provides a more accurate estimate of CO2 fluxes than the other two. Our findings are applicable in other coastal areas that are heavily influenced by river loads of TA, DIC, and DOC.

  • 161. Wernersson, Ann-Sofie
    et al.
    Carere, Mario
    Maggi, Chiara
    Tusil, Petr
    Soldan, Premysl
    James, Alice
    Sanchez, Wilfried
    Dulio, Valeria
    Broeg, Katja
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Reifferscheid, Georg
    Buchinger, Sebastian
    Maas, Hannie
    Van Der Grinten, Esther
    O'Toole, Simon
    Ausili, Antonella
    Manfra, Loredana
    Marziali, Laura
    Polesello, Stefano
    Lacchetti, Ines
    Mancini, Laura
    Lilja, Karl
    Linderoth, Maria
    Lundeberg, Tove
    Fjällborg, Bengt
    Porsbring, Tobias
    Larsson, D. G. Joakim
    Bengtsson-Palme, Johan
    Förlin, Lars
    Kienle, Cornelia
    Kunz, Petra
    Vermeirssen, Etienne
    Werner, Inge
    Robinson, Craig D.
    Lyons, Brett
    Katsiadaki, Ioanna
    Whalley, Caroline
    den Haan, Klaas
    Messiaen, Marlies
    Clayton, Helen
    Lettieri, Teresa
    Negrão Carvalho, Raquel
    Gawlik, Bernd Manfred
    Hollert, Henner
    Di Paolo, Carolina
    Brack, Werner
    Kammann, Ulrike
    Kase, Robert
    The European technical report on aquatic effect-based monitoring tools under the water framework directive2015Ingår i: Environmental Sciences Europe, ISSN 2190-4707, E-ISSN 2190-4715, Vol. 27, s. 1-11, artikel-id 7Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Water Framework Directive (WFD), 2000/60/EC, requires an integrated approach to the monitoring and assessment of the quality of surface water bodies. The chemical status assessment is based on compliance with legally binding Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs) for selected chemical pollutants (priority substances) of EU-wide concern. In the context of the mandate for the period 2010 to 2012 of the subgroup Chemical Monitoring and Emerging Pollutants (CMEP) under the Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) for the WFD, a specific task was established for the elaboration of a technical report on aquatic effect-based monitoring tools. The activity was chaired by Sweden and co-chaired by Italy and progressively involved several Member States and stakeholders in an EU-wide drafting group. The main aim of this technical report was to identify potential effect-based tools (e.g. biomarkers and bioassays) that could be used in the context of the different monitoring programmes (surveillance, operational and investigative) linking chemical and ecological status assessment. The present paper summarizes the major technical contents and findings of the report.

  • 162. Turja, Raisa
    et al.
    Lehtonen, Kari K.
    Meierjohann, Axel
    Brozinski, Jenny-Maria
    Vahtera, Emil
    Soirinsuo, Anna
    Sokolov, Alexander
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Snoeijs, Pauline
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Budzinski, Helene
    Devier, Marie-Helene
    Peluhet, Laurent
    Paakkonen, Jari-Pekka
    Viitasalo, Markku
    Kronberg, Leif
    The mussel caging approach in assessing biological effects of wastewater treatment plant discharges in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)2015Ingår i: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 97, nr 1-2, s. 135-149Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Biological effects of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents were investigated in Baltic mussels (Mytilus trossulus) caged for one month 800 m and 1100 m from the WWTP discharge site and at a reference site 4 km away. Significant antioxidant, genotoxic and lysosomal responses were observed close to the point of the WWTP discharge. Passive samplers (POCIS) attached to the cages indicated markedly higher water concentrations of various pharmaceuticals at the two most impacted sites. Modeling the dispersal of a hypothetical passive tracer compound from the WWTP discharge site revealed differing frequencies and timing of the exposure periods at different caging sites. The study demonstrated for the first time the effectiveness of the mussel caging approach in combination with passive samplers and the application of passive tracer modeling to examine the true exposure patterns at point source sites such as WWTP pipe discharges in the Baltic Sea.

  • 163. Odom Green, Olivia
    et al.
    Schultz, Lisen
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nekoro, Marmar
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Garmestani, Ahjond G.
    The Role of Bridging Organizations in Enhancing Ecosystem Services and Facilitating Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems2015Ingår i: Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems / [ed] Craig R. Allen, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Springer Netherlands, 2015, s. 107-122Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The nested nature of social-ecological systems across scales requires a multi-scale approach for monitoring and response. However, in many cases this flow is hindered by hierarchical structures and bureaucratic procedures. Recent research suggests that bridging organizations that facilitate collaboration and learning across sectors and scales are key to adaptive governance. Bridging organizations can facilitate cross-scale linkages, enabling formal management entities operating at discrete scales to improve communication channels and create opportunities for collaboration. This allows for management to set new target levels and modify policy to reach those target levels as new information is generated on scale-specific system attributes. Bridging organizations also incubate new ideas for environmental management, provide a forum for coming to agreement on contentious issues, and foster the capacity to manage for resilience of social-ecological systems and the provisioning of ecosystem services that are directly and indirectly important on a regional and international scale.

  • 164.
    Undeman, Emma
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM).
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    A novel modeling tool with multi-stressor functionality for organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea2014Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 497, s. 382-391Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The coupled physical-biogeochemical model BALTSEM, previously used to assess nutrient/carbon cycles and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea, has been expanded to include algorithms for calculations of organic contaminant environmental transport and fate. This novel model version (BALTSEM-POP) is evaluated for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in Baltic Sea surface water and sediment. Modeled dissolved concentrations are usually within a factor of 2-4 of observed concentrations, however with larger deviations for furans. Calculated concentrations in particulate organic matter are less accurate (within factors of 1-700), likely due to errors in estimated pelagic biomass, particulate matter-water partitioning, and large natural variability in field data. Concentrations in sediments are usually predicted within a factor of 6. The good performance of the model illustrates its usefulness for exploration of contaminant fate in response to variations in nutrient input and climatic conditions in the Baltic Sea marine environment.

  • 165.
    Hansen, Joakim P.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Snickars, Martin
    Applying macrophyte community indicators to assess anthropogenic pressures on shallow soft bottoms2014Ingår i: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 738, nr 1, s. 171-189Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Vegetated soft bottoms are under pressure due to a number of anthropogenic stressors, such as coastal exploitation and eutrophication. The ecological value of these biotopes has gained recognition through international conventions and the EU directives, which request methods for assessment of the environmental status of coastal areas. However, currently there is no appropriate method for assessing the status of shallow vegetated soft bottoms in the northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, we developed a macrophyte community index and tested its response in relation to important pressures (eutrophication and boating activity) and natural gradients (topographic openness, depth and salinity) on shallow bays in the northern Baltic Sea. The macrophyte index, and hence the proportion of sensitive to tolerant species, decreased with increasing phosphorus concentration, turbidity and level of boating activity, while the cumulative cover of macrophytes only showed a negative trend in response to increasing turbidity. Juvenile fish abundance was positively related to the index, indicating importance of sensitive macrophyte species for ecosystem functioning. As the index was tested in a wide geographic area, and showed a uniform response across natural gradients, it is a promising tool for assessment of environmental status that may be applied also in other vegetated soft-bottom areas.

  • 166.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Carbon cycling in the Baltic Sea - The fate of allochthonous organic carbon and its impact on air-sea CO2 exchange2014Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 129, s. 289-302Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical model (BALTSEM) is used to estimate carbon fluxes in the Baltic Sea over the 1980-2006 period. Budget calculations for organic carbon indicate that of the total allochthonous organic carbon (TOCT) supplied to the system, on average 56% is mineralized, 36% is exported out of the system, and the remainder is buried. River discharge is the main source of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the Baltic Sea. However, model results indicate that in the Gulf of Bothnia (northern Baltic Sea), the contribution to the DIC stock by TOCT mineralization is of the same order as direct river input of DIC In the Kattegat and Danish Straits (southwestern Baltic Sea) on the other hand, net uptake of atmospheric CO2 comprises the major DIC source. Despite large variations within the system, with net outgassing from some sub-basins and net absorption in others, the Baltic Sea as a whole was estimated to be a net sink for atmospheric CO2. Mineralization of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon (DOCT) influences air-sea CO2 exchange. A sensitivity study indicates that depending on the labile fraction of DOCT, the contribution from CO2 absorption to total external DIC sources can amount to 10-25%.

  • 167. Schneider, Bernd
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Sadkowiak, Bernd
    Control of the mid-summer net community production and nitrogen fixation in the central Baltic Sea: An approach based on pCO2 measurements on a cargo ship2014Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 136, s. 1-9Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Automated measurements of the surface CO2 partial pressure, pCO2, were performed since 2003 on a cargo ship along a transect between Helsinki in the Gulf of Finland and Lübeck/Gdynia in the southwest of the Baltic Sea. The temporal and spatial resolution of the measurements amounted to 2–4 days and about 2 nautical miles, respectively. Based on temperature and salinity records and on the mean alkalinity, the total CO2 concentrations, CT, were calculated from the mean pCO2 in the northeastern Gotland Sea. The CT data were used to establish a CO2 mass balance for the period from mid-June to the beginning of August in 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2011. Taking into account the air–sea CO2 gas exchange, the mass balance yielded the net organic matter (Corg) production which is fuelled by nitrogen fixation at this time of the year. Several production events were detected with rates up to 8 μmol-C L− 1 d− 1. The production rates were not related to temperature, but showed a distinct correlation with the rate of the temperature increase. This led to the conclusion that the exposure of nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria to irradiance is the dominating control for the Corg production. Therefore, we suggest using the ratio of irradiance to the mixed layer depth as a variable for the parameterization of nitrogen fixation in biogeochemical models. The Corg production and thus the nitrogen fixation rates remained almost constant as long as continuous rising temperatures indicated favorable irradiation conditions. A limitation of the rates by phosphate or any other factor could not be detected. Based on the C/N ratio of particulate organic matter during a cyanobacteria bloom, the Corg production was used to estimate the mid-summer nitrogen fixation. The values varied from 102 mmol m− 2 to 214 mmol m− 2 (mean: 138 mmol m− 2) for the different years and did not show any correlation with the phosphate excess after the spring nitrate depletion.

  • 168. Varjopuro, Riku
    et al.
    Andrulewicz, Eugeniusz
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Dolch, Tobias
    Heiskanen, Anna-Stuna
    Pihlajamäki, Mia
    Brandt, Urs Steiner
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen.
    Gee, Kira
    Potts, Tavis
    Psuty, Iwona
    Coping with persistent environmental problems: systemic delays in reducing eutrophication of the Baltic Sea2014Ingår i: Ecology & society, ISSN 1708-3087, E-ISSN 1708-3087, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 48-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we focus on systemic delays in the Baltic Sea that cause the problem of eutrophication to persist. These problems are demonstrated in our study by addressing three types of delays: (1) decision delay: the time it takes for an idea or perceived need to be launched as a policy; (2) implementation delay: the time from the launch of a policy to the actual implementation; (3) ecosystem delay: the time difference between the implementation and an actual measurable effects. A policy process is one characterized by delays. It may take years from problem identification to a decision to taking action and several years further for actual implementation. Ecosystem responses to measures illustrate that feedback can keep the ecosystem in a certain state and cause a delay in ecosystem response. These delays can operate on decadal scales. Our aim in this paper is to analyze these systemic delays and especially to discuss how the critical delays can be better addressed in marine protection policies by strengthening the adaptive capacity of marine protection. We conclude that the development of monitoring systems and reflexive, participatory analysis of dynamics involved in the implementation are keys to improve understanding of the systemic delays. The improved understanding is necessary for the adaptive management of a persistent environmental problem. In addition to the state of the environment, the monitoring and analysis should be targeted also at the implementation of policies to ensure that the societies are investing in the right measures.

  • 169. Carstensen, Jacob
    et al.
    Andersen, Jesper H.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century2014Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 111, nr 15, s. 5628-5633Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Deoxygenation is a global problem in coastal and open regions of the ocean, and has led to expanding areas of oxygen minimum zones and coastal hypoxia. The recent expansion of hypoxia in coastal ecosystems has been primarily attributed to global warming and enhanced nutrient input from land and atmosphere. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in the world is the Baltic Sea, where the relative importance of physical forcing versus eutrophication is still debated. We have analyzed water column oxygen and salinity profiles to reconstruct oxygen and stratification conditions over the last 115 y and compare the influence of both climate and anthropogenic forcing on hypoxia. We report a 10-fold increase of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and show that this is primarily linked to increased inputs of nutrients from land, although increased respiration from higher temperatures during the last two decades has contributed to worsening oxygen conditions. Although shifts in climate and physical circulation are important factors modulating the extent of hypoxia, further nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea will be necessary to reduce the ecosystems impacts of deoxygenation.

  • 170.
    Sun, Xiaole
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Olofsson, Martin
    Andersson, Per S.
    Fry, Brian
    Legrand, Catherine
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Effects of growth and dissolution on the fractionation of silicon isotopes by estuarine diatoms2014Ingår i: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, ISSN 0016-7037, E-ISSN 1872-9533, Vol. 130, s. 156-166Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies of silicon (Si) isotope fractionation during diatom growth in open ocean systems have documented lower Si isotopic values (delta Si-30) in the biogenic silica of diatom frustules compared to dissolved silicon. Recent findings also indicate that Si isotope fractionation occurs during dissolution of diatom frustules, producing higher delta Si-30 values in the remaining biogenic silica. This study focuses on diatoms from high production areas in estuarine and coastal areas that represent approximately 30-50% of the global marine primary production. Two species of diatoms, Thalassiosira baltica and Skeletonema marinoi, were isolated from the brackish Baltic Sea, one of the largest estuarine systems in the world. These species were used for laboratory investigations of Si isotope fractionation during diatom growth and the subsequent dissolution of the diatom frustules. Both species of diatoms give an identical Si isotope fractionation factor during growth of -1.50 +/- 0.36 parts per thousand (2 sigma) for Si-30, which falls in the range of -2.09 parts per thousand to -0.55 parts per thousand of published data. Our results also suggest a dissolution-induced Si isotope fractionation factor of -0.86 parts per thousand at early stage of dissolution, but this effect was observed only in DSi and no significant Si isotope change was observed for BSi. The growth and dissolution results are applied to a Baltic Sea sediment core to reconstruct DSi utilization by diatoms, and found to be in agreement with the observed DSi uptake rates in the overlying water column during diatom growth.

  • 171. Bergström, Lena
    et al.
    Kautsky, Lena
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Malm, Torleif
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    Wahlberg, Magnus
    Capetillo, Nastassja Åstrand
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Wilhelmsson, Dan
    Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife-a generalized impact assessment2014Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, nr 3, s. 034012-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.

  • 172. Meier, H. E. Markus
    et al.
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Arheimer, Berit
    Donnelly, Chantal
    Eilola, Kari
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Kotwicki, Lech
    Neset, Tina-Simone
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Weslawski, Jan Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 37-48Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  • 173.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM).
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    External total alkalinity loads versus internal generation: The influence of nonriverine alkalinity sources in the Baltic Sea2014Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 28, nr 11, s. 1358-1370Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we first present updated riverine total alkalinity (TA) loads to the various Baltic Sea sub-basins, based on monthly measurements in 82 of the major rivers that represent 85% of the total runoff. Simulations in the coupled physical-biogeochemical BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long-Term large Scale Eutrophication Model) model show that these river loads together with North Sea water inflows are not sufficient to reproduce observed TA concentrations in the system, demonstrating the large influence from internal sources. Budget calculations indicate that the required internal TA generation must be similar to river loads in magnitude. The nonriverine source in the system amounts to about 2.4mmolm(-2) d(-1) on average. We argue here that the majority of this source is related to denitrification together with unresolved sediment processes such as burial of reduced sulfur and/or silicate weathering. This hypothesis is supported by studies on sediment processes on a global scale and also by data from sediment cores in the Baltic Sea. In a model simulation with all internal TA sources and sinks switched on, the net absorption of atmospheric CO2 increased by 0.78mol C m(-2) yr(-1) compared to a simulation where TA was treated as a passive tracer. Our results clearly illustrate how pelagic TA sources together with anaerobic mineralization in coastal sediments generate a significant carbon sink along the aquatic continuum, mitigating CO2 evasions from coastal and estuarine systems.

  • 174.
    Eriksson Hägg, Hanna
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Claremar, Björn
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 3, s. 337--351Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate

  • 175. Pinnegar, John K.
    et al.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Link, Jason S.
    How to determine the likely indirect food-web consequences of a newly introduced non-native species: A worked example2014Ingår i: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 272, s. 379-387Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we demonstrate through a worked case-study that it is possible to make an assessment of the indirect food-web consequences that might occur as a result of the arrival of a hither-to not observed non-native species. We also explore implications for commercial fisheries catches, through the application of a suite of complimentary ecosystem modelling tools. Fistularia commersonii is a lessepsian migrant (introduced via the Suez Canal) that was first recorded in the Mediterranean in January 2000. It has since spread throughout the basin and has been described as the fastest and farthest spreading lessepsian fish migrant ever recorded'. We have used a Rank Proportion Algorithm (RPA) model to predict the theoretical diet composition of F. commersonii in the Bay of Calvi, Corsica. We did so based on potential prey abundances, as well as morphological and behavioural characteristics of both the prey and this novel predator. The 'predicted' diet composition of F. commersonii derived from the RPA analysis was then used as input to an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model. This model was used to simulate possible consequences of introducing this invasive species, assuming different rates of expansion of F. commersonii populations in the region. Increases in the F. commersonii population resulted in a marked decline in certain prey types (notably planktivorous fish, Mullus surmuletus and Symphodus tinca). By contrast, seabirds and piscivorous fish were suggested as possible beneficiaries, although this depended heavily on model and scenario assumptions. Overall fisheries catches were projected to increase, and this reflected an anticipated 'bottom up' increase in piscivorous fish that are the main target of the commercial fishery in the Bay of Calvi region.

  • 176. Carstensen, Jacob
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hietanen, Susanna
    Janas, Urzsula
    Jilbert, Tom
    Maximov, Alexey
    Norkko, Alf
    Norkko, Joanna
    Reed, Daniel C.
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Timmermann, Karen
    Voss, Maren
    Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 26-36Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km(2) before 1950 to > 60 000 km(2) since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

  • 177. Moellmann, Christian
    et al.
    Lindegren, Martin
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bergström, Lena
    Casini, Michele
    Diekmann, Rabea
    Flinkman, Juha
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Neuenfeldt, Stefan
    Schmidt, Joern O.
    Tomczak, Maciej
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Voss, Ruediger
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management: from single-species to integrated ecosystem assessment and advice for Baltic Sea fish stocks2014Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 71, nr 5, s. 1187-1197Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Theory behind ecosystem-based management (EBM) and ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is now well developed. However, the implementation of EBFM exemplified by fisheries management in Europe is still largely based on single-species assessments and ignores the wider ecosystem context and impact. The reason for the lack or slow implementation of EBM and specifically EBFM is a lack of a coherent strategy. Such a strategy is offered by recently developed integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs), a formal synthesis tool to quantitatively analyse information on relevant natural and socio-economic factors, in relation to specified management objectives. Here, we focus on implementing the IEA approach for Baltic Sea fish stocks. We combine both tactical and strategic management aspects into a single strategy that supports the present Baltic Sea fish stock advice, conducted by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We first review the state of the art in the development of IEA within the current management framework. We then outline and discuss an approach that integrates fish stock advice and IEAs for the Baltic Sea. We intentionally focus on the central Baltic Sea and its three major fish stocks cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and sprat (Sprattus sprattus), but emphasize that our approach may be applied to other parts and stocks of the Baltic, as well as other ocean areas.

  • 178. Korth, F.
    et al.
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Frey, C.
    Moros, C.
    Voss, M.
    Nitrate source identification in the Baltic Sea using its isotopic ratios in combination with a Bayesian isotope mixing model2014Ingår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 11, nr 17, s. 4913-4924Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Nitrate (NO3-) is the major nutrient responsible for coastal eutrophication worldwide and its production is related to intensive food production and fossil-fuel combustion. In the Baltic Sea NO3- inputs have increased 4-fold over recent decades and now remain constantly high. NO3- source identification is therefore an important consideration in environmental management strategies. In this study focusing on the Baltic Sea, we used a method to estimate the proportional contributions of NO3- from atmospheric deposition, N-2 fixation, and runoff from pristine soils as well as from agricultural land. Our approach combines data on the dual isotopes of NO3- (delta N-15-NO3- and delta O-18-NO3-) in winter surface waters with a Bayesian isotope mixing model (Stable Isotope Analysis in R, SIAR). Based on data gathered from 47 sampling locations over the entire Baltic Sea, the majority of the NO3- in the southern Baltic was shown to derive from runoff from agricultural land (33-100 %), whereas in the northern Baltic, i.e. the Gulf of Bothnia, NO3- originates from nitrification in pristine soils (34-100 %). Atmospheric deposition accounts for only a small percentage of NO3- levels in the Baltic Sea, except for contributions from northern rivers, where the levels of atmospheric NO3- are higher. An additional important source in the central Baltic Sea is N-2 fixation by diazotrophs, which contributes 49-65% of the overall NO3- pool at this site. The results obtained with this method are in good agreement with source estimates based upon delta N-15 values in sediments and a three-dimensional ecosystem model, ERGOM. We suggest that this approach can be easily modified to determine NO3- sources in other marginal seas or larger near-coastal areas where NO3- is abundant in winter surface waters when fractionation processes are minor.

  • 179. Eglite, Elvita
    et al.
    Lavrinovics, Aigars
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia.
    Aigars, Juris
    Poikane, Rita
    Nutrient turnover at the hypoxic boundary: flux measurements and model representation for the bottom water environment of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea2014Ingår i: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, nr 4, s. 711-735Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Experimental studies of intact sediment cores from the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea, were conducted to estimate the response of sediment nutrient fluxes to various near-bottom water oxygen conditions. The experiment was performed in the laboratory using a batch-mode assay type system on the sediment cores held at 4 degrees C and oxygen concentrations maintained at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mg l(-1). The results from the experiment were subsequently used to optimise the fit of the sediment denitrification sub-model of the Gulf of Riga basin. Sedimentwater fluxes of phosphate were low and directed out of the sediments under all treatments, demonstrating a general decreasing tendency with increasing near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The sediment-water fluxes of ammonium and nitrate + nitrite demonstrated opposing trends: ammonium fluxes decreased whereas nitrate + nitrite fluxes increased with rising near-bottom water oxygen concentration. The modelled fluxes agreed well with the measured ones, with correlation coefficients of 0.75, 0.63 and 0.88 for ammonium, nitrate + nitrite and phosphate fluxes respectively. The denitrification rate in sediments was simulated at oxygen concentrations from -2 to 10 mg l(-1). At oxygen concentrations < 2 mg l(-1) the modelled denitrification was sustained by nitrate transport from water overlying the sediments. With increasing oxygen concentrations the simulated denitrification switched from the process fuelled by nitrates originating from the overlying water (D-w) to one sustained by nitrates originating from the coupled sedimentary nitrification - denitrification (D-n). D-n reached its maximum at an oxygen concentration of 5 mg l(-1).

  • 180.
    Wulff, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Andersen, Hans Estrup
    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Elofsson, Katarina
    Fonnesbech-Wulff, Anders
    Hasler, Berit
    Hong, Bongghi
    Jansons, Viesturs
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Smart, James C. R.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Stålnacke, Per
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Thodsen, Hans
    Was, Adam
    Zylicz, Tomasz
    Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 11-25Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion a,not sign.

  • 181.
    Niiranen, Susa
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Olso, Norway.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hjerne, Olle
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Müller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden.
    Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web2013Ingår i: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, nr 11, s. 3327-3342Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

  • 182. Slomp, Caroline P.
    et al.
    Mort, Haydon P.
    Jilbert, Tom
    Reed, Daniel C.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Wolthers, Mariette
    Coupled Dynamics of Iron and Phosphorus in Sediments of an Oligotrophic Coastal Basin and the Impact of Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane2013Ingår i: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, nr 4, artikel-id e62386Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Studies of phosphorus (P) dynamics in surface sediments of lakes and coastal seas typically emphasize the role of coupled iron (Fe), sulfur (S) and P cycling for sediment P burial and release. Here, we show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) also may impact sediment P cycling in such systems. Using porewater and sediment profiles for sites in an oligotrophic coastal basin (Bothnian Sea), we provide evidence for the formation of Fe-bound P (possibly vivianite; Fe-3(PO4)(2)center dot 8H(2)O) below the zone of AOM with sulfate. Here, dissolved Fe2+ released from oxides is no longer scavenged by sulfide and high concentrations of both dissolved Fe2+ (>1 mM) and PO4 in the porewater allow supersaturation with respect to vivianite to be reached. Besides formation of Fe(II)-P, preservation of Fe-oxide bound P likely also contributes to permanent burial of P in Bothnian Sea sediments. Preliminary budget calculations suggest that the burial of Fe-bound P allows these sediments to act as a major sink for P from the adjacent eutrophic Baltic Proper.

  • 183.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Heymans, Johanna J.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change ((NorMER).
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Otto, Saskia A.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea2013Ingår i: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, nr 10, artikel-id e75439Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system's resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web.

  • 184.
    Joakim P., Hansen
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Effects of shore-level displacement on the ecology of Baltic Sea bays2013Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the up to date understanding of changes in ecological structure of small Baltic Sea bays following shore-level displacement and isolation of bays from the sea. It was producedas a part of the biosphere research programme, which has a strong emphasis on the characterization of properties and processes affecting the fate of potentially released radionuclides from the suggested repository of nuclear waste in the bedrock of the Forsmark area. The report has a focus on ecology and gives a description of input data, methodology and results on changes in flora and fauna communities, as well as some abiotic factors, with topographic isolation of bays from the sea. It is intended to describe the properties and conditions at the Forsmark site and to give information essential for demonstrating site specific understanding of processes and properties linked to a sea-to-lake succession. Long-term landscape development in the Forsmark area is dependent on two main and partly interdependent factors; shore-level displacement and climate variations. These two factors in combination strongly affect a number of processes, which in turn influence the development of ecosystems. Some examples of such processes are erosion and sedimentation, primary production and decomposition of organic matter. In this work focus has been to report changes in the structure and biomass of flora and fauna communities, which affect primary production, and influence the processes of decomposition of organic matter and sedimentation. A section of the study also deals with the biological processes of primary production, autotrophic carbon uptake and influence of allochtonous energy. The study is part of a description of the Forsmark ecosystem succession during a glacial cycle, which is one of the main objectives of the biosphere modelling at the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB). The biomass of macrofauna was found to decrease with increasing isolation of bays. The changes in the macrofauna community also reflected the animals ability to re-colonize an unstable habitat, where slow colonizers with passively dispersed larvae were almost absent from the most isolated bays. Fast colonizers – particularly the ones with flying adults (insects) – were however found inhigher proportions in isolated bays. Contrary to the macrofauna and flora, the zooplankton and juvenile fish increased in biomass with increasing bay isolation. This study describes a significant change in ecological properties of Baltic Sea bays with shore-level displacement. This change affects ecosystem processes which may be of importance for the fate of potentially released radionuclides to the biosphere.

  • 185.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Technical University of Denmark, Denmark.
    Dinesen, Grete E.
    Hoffmann, Erik
    Maar, Marie
    Stottrup, Josianne G.
    Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): Evidence of a recent regime shift?2013Ingår i: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, ISSN 0272-7714, E-ISSN 1096-0015, Vol. 117, s. 178-187Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is a eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and main outflow to the Kattegat in the east. We showed that from 1990 to 1995, the ecosystem structure shifted from dominance by demersal fish species (eelpout, whiting, flounder, plaice) to that of pelagic fish species (sprat, herring, sticklebacks), small-bodied fish species (black goby, pipefish), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance.

  • 186.
    Österblom, Henrik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Merrie, Andrew
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Metian, Marc
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Watson, James R.
    Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Ota, Yoshitaka
    Sarmiento, Jorge L.
    Christensen, Villy
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Mörth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Muller-Karulis, Bärbel
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems2013Ingår i: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, nr 9, s. 735-744Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

  • 187.
    Joakim, Hansen
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Undervattensvegetation på mjukbottnar i Blekinge läns kustvatten: En sammanställning och analys av inventeringar utförda 2001–20082010Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    I den här studien sammanställdes inventeringar av vattenväxter utförda mellan år 2001 – 2008 i 25 vattenförekomster i Blekinge skärgård. Syftet med studien var att analysera rumsliga variationer i växtartsammansättning på mjukbotten, samt undersöka vilka arter som är representativa respektive unika för en viss typ av miljö. Vidare syftade projektet till att undersöka hur väl variationen i artsammansättning kan förklaras av skillnader i vågexponering, djup och närsaltsbelastning. Resultaten visade att artsammansättningen på mjukbotten i Blekinge skärgård är relativt lika mellan flertalet vattenförekomster. Endast några få vattenförekomster hade en artsammansättning markant skild från de övriga. De vanligaste arterna i det sammanställda datamaterialet var borstnate Potamogeton pectinatus, lösliggande blåstång Fucus vesiculosus, natingar Ruppia spp., ålgräs Zostera marina, axslinga Myriophyllum spicatum samt trådformiga alger. Dessa arter påträffades i flertalet av vattenförekomsterna. Ovanliga arter var rödsträfse Chara tomentosa, murkelalg Leathesia difformis, hjulmöja Ranunculus circinatus, slangalger Vaucheriaceae, korsandmat Lemna trisulca och havsrufse Tolypella nidifica. Dessa arter påträffades endast i enstaka vattenförekomster. Artsammansättningen i vågexponerade djupa miljöer skilde sig signifikant från artsammansättningen i vågexponerade grunda och i skyddade grunda miljöer. Vidare skilde artsammansättningen signifikant mellan vattenförekomster med hög närsaltsbelastning och vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltbelastning. Vattenförekomster med hög närsaltbelastning hade högre täckningsgrad av trådformiga alger, natingar Ruppia spp., ålnate Potamogeton perfoliatus och havsnajas Najas marina än vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltsbelastning. Omvänt hade vattenförekomster med lägre närsaltsbelastning högre täckningsgrad av blåstång Fucus vesiculosus, ålgräs Zostera marina, borstnate Potamogeton pectinatus och sudare Chorda filum. Skillnader i koncentration av totalfosfor och totalkväve kunde förklara en förhållandevis stor del av variationen i artsammansättning mellan vattenförekomsterna. Skillnader i närsaltsbelastning samvarierade med skärgårdsgradienten, exempelvis fanns entydlig samvariation mellan koncentrationen totalkväve och salthalt. Detta gör det svårt att urskilja effekter av enskilda miljöfaktorer på artsammansättningen.

  • 188. Johannesson, Kerstin
    et al.
    André, Carl
    Kautsky, Lena
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets marina forskningscentrum (SMF).
    Snabb evolution i Östersjön2007Ingår i: Forskning och Framsteg, ISSN 0015-7937, nr 3, s. 34-38Artikel i tidskrift (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 189.
    Larsson, Ulf
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Nyberg, Svante
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Zakrisson, Anna
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Hajdu, Susanna
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Walve, Jakob
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Rolff, Carl
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Baltic Sea phytoplankton: Long-term variability of major groups and primary production in spring and summer related to nutrients and temperatureManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 190.
    Valman, Matilda
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen.
    Beliefs and behavior in international policy making: longitudinal changes in the governance of the Baltic SeaIngår i: Environmental Policy and Governance, ISSN 1756-932X, E-ISSN 1756-9338Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 191.
    Sagerman, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Pavia, Henrik
    Wikström, Sofia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Competition between the non-native Fucus evanescens and the native congener Fucus vesiculosusManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 192.
    Sagerman, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Staberg, Nichlas
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Pavia, Henrik
    Wikström, Sofia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Decomposition rates differ between two seaweed invaders with different ecophysiological traitsManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 193.
    Staveley, Thomas
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Hernvall, Patrick
    Stjärnkvist, Nellie
    van der Meijs, Felix
    Wikström, Sofia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Gullström, Martin
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Exploring seagrass fish assemblages in relation to the habitat patch mosaic in the brackish Baltic SeaManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 194.
    Valman, Matilda
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum, Baltic Nest Institute. Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen.
    Duit, Andreas
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    HELCOM, we have a problem: gradually unfolding crises and problem detection in international organisationsIngår i: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 195.
    Sagerman, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Enge, Swantje
    Pavia, Henrik
    Wikström, Sofia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Low feeding preference of native herbivores for the successful non-native seaweed Heterosiphonia japonicaManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 196. De Brabandere, L.
    et al.
    Bonaglia, Stefano
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper.
    Kononets, M.
    Viktorsson, Lena
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Stigebrandt, A.
    Thamdrup, B.
    Hall, P. O. J.
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