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  • 1.
    Almås, Ingvild
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Norwegian School of Economics.
    Cappelen, Alexander
    Haaland, Inger
    Tungodden, Bertil
    Rettferdig ulikhet2015In: Magma - Tidsskrift for økonomi og ledelse, ISSN 1500-0788, E-ISSN 1500-6069, Vol. 6, p. 38-43Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    André, Karin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Bruzell, Susanna
    Centrum för miljö- och klimatforskning, Lunds universitet.
    Gerger Swartling, Åsa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Jönsson, Anna Maria
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    Vulturius, Gregor
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Blennow, Kristina
    Carlsen, Henrik
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Engström, Kerstin
    Hassler, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Lindeskog, Mats
    Olsson, Olle
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Klimatanpassat skogsbruk: drivkrafter, risker och möjligheter : Mistra-SWECIA syntesrapport2015Report (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Baltrunaite, Audinga
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Casarico, Alessandra
    Profeta, Paola
    Affirmative Action and the Power of the Elderly2015In: CESifo Economic Studies, ISSN 1610-241X, E-ISSN 1612-7501, Vol. 61, no 1, p. 148-164Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is evidence that age matters in politics. In this article we study whether implementation of affirmative action policies on gender can generate additional effects on an alternative dimension of representation, namely, the age of politicians. We consider an Italian law which introduced gender quotas in candidate lists for local elections in 1993, and was abolished in 1995. As not all municipalities went through elections during this period, we can identify two groups of municipalities and use a difference in differences estimation to analyze the effect of gender quotas on the age of elected politicians. We find that gender quotas are associated with election of politicians that are younger by more than 1 year. The effect occurs mainly due to the reduction in age of elected male politicians and is consistent with the optimizing behavior of parties or of voters. (JEL codes: D72, J45).

  • 4. Björkman Nyqvist, Martina
    et al.
    Corno, Lucia
    de Walque, Damien
    Svensson, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Using lotteries to incentivize safer sex behavior: evidence from a randomized controlled trial on HIV prevention2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Financial incentives are a promising HIV prevention strategy. This paper assesses the effect on HIV incidence of a lottery program in Lesotho with low expected payments but a chance to win a high prize conditional on negative test results for sexually transmitted infections. The intervention resulted in a 21.4 percent reduction in HIV incidence over two years. Lottery incentives appear to be particularly effective for individuals willing to take risks. This paper estimates a model linking sexual behavior to HIV incidence and finds that risk-loving individuals reduce the number of unprotected sexual acts by 0.3/month for every $1 increase in the expected prize.

  • 5. Blanchard, Olivier
    et al.
    Calmfors, Lars
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Hassler, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Krusell, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Makroekonomi2015Book (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Bold, Tessa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Kaizzi, Kayuki
    Svensson, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Yanagizawa-Drott, David
    Low quality, low returns, low adoption: evidence from the market for fertilizer and hybrid seed in Uganda2015Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed contains less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in negative average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, average returns for smallholder farmers would be over 50%.

  • 7. Bonnier, Evelina
    et al.
    Puolsen, Jonas
    Rogall, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Stryjan, Miri
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Preparing for genocide: community work in Rwanda2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using village-level data from the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure, a practice called Umuganda. This practice was highly politicized and, in the years before the genocide, regularly used for spreading political propaganda. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. These results pass a number of indirect tests of the exclusion restriction as well as other robustness checks and placebo tests.

  • 8. Briggs, Joseph S.
    et al.
    Cesarini, David
    Lindqvist, Erik
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Windfall gains and stock market participation2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the causal effect of wealth on stock market participation using administrative data on Swedish lottery players. A $150,000 windfall gain increases stock ownership probability among pre-lottery non-participants by 12 percentage points, while pre-lottery stock holders are unaffected. The effect is immediate, seemingly permanent and heterogeneous in intuitive ways. Standard lifecycle models predict wealth effects far too large to match our causal estimates under common calibrations. Additional analyses suggest a limited role for explanations such as procrastination or real-estate investment. Overall, results suggest that “nonstandard” beliefs or preferences contribute to the nonparticipation of households across many demographic groups.

  • 9.
    Broer, Tobias
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Kapicka, Marek
    Klein, Paul
    Simon Fraser University, Canada .
    Consumption Risk Sharing with Private Information and Limited Enforcement2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we study consumption risk sharing when individual income shocks are persistent and not publicly observable, and individuals can default on contracts at the price of financial autarky. We find that, in contrast to a model where the only friction is limited enforcement, our model has observable implications that are similar to those of an Aiyagari (1994) self-insurance model and therefore broadly consistent with empirical observations. However, some of the implied effects of changes in policy or the economic environment are noticeably different in our model compared to self-insurance.

  • 10.
    Calmfors, Lars
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Tiggarna på våra gator: hur ska vi förhålla oss?2015In: Svensk ekonomisk politik: då, nu och i framtiden: festskrift tillägnad Hans Tson Söderström / [ed] Birgitta Swedenborg, Stockholm: Dialogos Förlag, 2015Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Calmfors, Lars
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Danielsson, Petter
    Kolm, Ann-Sofie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Pekkarinen, Tuomas
    Skedinger, Per
    Arbetsmarksnadsekonomisk rapport: Inför avtalsrörelsen 20162015Report (Other academic)
  • 12. Cesarini, David
    et al.
    Lindqvist, Erik
    Notowidigdo, Matthew J.
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    The effect of wealth on household labor supply: evidence from Swedish lotteries2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of Swedish lottery players. We find winning a lottery prize modestly reduces labor earnings, with the reduction being immediate, persistent, and similar by age, education, and sex. A calibrated dynamic model of individual labor supply implies an average lifetime marginal propensity to earn out of unearned income of -0.11, and labor-supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates. The earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses, which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models.

  • 13. Cesarini, David
    et al.
    Lindqvist, Erik
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Wallace, Björn
    Wealth, Health, and Child Development: Evidence from Administrative Data on Swedish Lottery Players2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We use administrative data on Swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players' own health and their children's health and developmental outcomes. Our estimation sample is large, virtually free of attrition, and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned. In adults, we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization, with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs. Our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10-year mortality one sixth as large as the cross-sectional wealth-mortality gradient. In our intergenerational analyses, we find that wealth increases children's health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk. The effects on most other child outcomes, which include drug consumption, scholastic performance, and skills, can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero. Overall, our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets, causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth-mortality gradients, nor of the observed relationships between child-developmental outcomes and household income.

  • 14.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Economics of the Single Market2015In: Routledge Handbook of the Economics of European Integration / [ed] Harald Badinger and Volker Nitsch, London: Routledge, 2015Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 15. Hagedorn, Mattias
    et al.
    Manovski, Iourii
    Mitman, Kurt
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    The impact of unemployment benefit extensions on employment: the 2014 employment miracle?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.0161 log points. In levels, 1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut. Almost 1 million of these jobs were filled by workers from out of the labor force who would not have participated in the labor market had benefit extensions been reauthorized.

  • 16.
    Hassler, John
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Krusell, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Nycander, Jonas
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Climate policy2015In: Economic Policy: A European Forum, ISSN 0266-4658, E-ISSN 1468-0327, Vol. 31, no 87, p. 503-558Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper makes suggestions for climate policy and defends them based on recent research in economics and the natural sciences. In summary: (i) the optimal carbon tax is rather modest; (ii) the key climate threat is coal; (iii) a carbon tax is to be preferred over a quantity-based system; (iv) the optimal tax on carbon does not appreciably harm growth; (v) subsidies to green technology are beneficial for the climate only to the extent that they make green technology outcompete coal; and (vi) a carbon tax is politically feasible.

  • 17. Jia, Ruixue
    et al.
    Kudamatsu, Masayuki
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Seim, David
    POLITICAL SELECTION IN CHINA: THE COMPLEMENTARY ROLES OF CONNECTIONS AND PERFORMANCE2015In: Journal of the European Economic Association, ISSN 1542-4766, E-ISSN 1542-4774, Vol. 13, no 4, p. 631-668Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Who becomes a top politician in China? We focus on provincial leadersa pool of candidates for top political officeand examine how their chances of promotion depend on their performance in office and connections with top politicians. Our empirical analysis, based on the curriculum vitae of Chinese politicians, shows that connections and performance are complements in the Chinese political selection process. This complementarity is stronger the younger provincial leaders are relative to their connected top leaders. To provide one plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, we propose a simple theory in which the complementarity arises because connections foster loyalty of junior officials to senior ones, thereby allowing incumbent top politicians to select competent provincial leaders without risking being ousted. Our findings shed some light on why a political system known for patronage can still select competent leaders.

  • 18.
    Koehne, Sebastian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    On the taxation of durable goods and housing2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper proposes a theory of commodity taxation in the presence of durable goods. Optimal commodity taxes depend on preference nonseparabilities between durable and nondurable consumption. In particular, the seminal Atkinson-Stigliz result fails and differential commodity taxes are optimal even when the utility function is separable between labor and consumption. An application to housing decisions implies that housing should face higher tax rates than nondurable consumption. Moreover, the theory justifies housing provisions in the income tax code.

  • 19.
    Koehne, Sebastian
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. CESifo, Germany.
    Kuhn, Moritz
    Optimal taxation in a habit formation economy2015In: Journal of Public Economics, ISSN 0047-2727, E-ISSN 1879-2316, Vol. 122, p. 31-39Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies habit formation in consumption preferences in a dynamic Mirrlees economy. We derive optimal labor and savings wedges based on a recursive approach. We show that habit formation creates a motive for subsidizing labor supply and savings. In particular, habit formation invalidates the well-known no distortion at the top result. We demonstrate that the theoretical findings are quantitatively important: in a parametrized life-cycle model, average labor and savings wedges fall by more than one-third compared with the case of time-separable preferences.

  • 20.
    Koehne, Sebastian
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. CESifo, Munich, Germany.
    Kuhn, Moritz
    Should unemployment insurance be asset tested?2015In: Review of economic dynamics (Print), ISSN 1094-2025, E-ISSN 1096-6099, Vol. 18, no 3, p. 575-592Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study asset-tested unemployment insurance in an incomplete markets model with moral hazard during job search. Optimal asset testing is weak and yields negligible welfare gains. The optimal replacement rate of an unemployed worker with zero liquidity is 9 percentage points higher than that of the median worker. Welfare rises by 0.03 percent in consumption equivalent terms. We develop a general welfare decomposition for heterogeneous agent models with transitional dynamics. Asset testing creates welfare gains due to redistribution and additional consumption during the transition phase, and welfare losses due to reduced consumption smoothing, lower consumption, and higher effort levels.

  • 21. Kolsrud, Jonas
    et al.
    Landais, Camille
    Nilsson, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Spinnewijn, Johannes
    The optimal timing of unemployment benefits: theory and evidence from Sweden2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides a simple, yet general framework to analyze the optimal time profile of benefits during the unemployment spell. We derive simple sufficient-statistics formulae capturing the insurance value and incentive costs of unemployment benefits paid at different times during the unemployment spell. Our general approach allows to revisit and evaluate in a transparent way the separate arguments for inclining or declining profiles put forward in the theoretical literature. We then estimate our sufficient statistics using administrative data on unemployment, income and wealth in Sweden. First, we exploit duration-dependent kinks in the replacement rate and find that the moral hazard cost of benefits is larger when paid earlier in the spell. Second, we find that the drop in consumption determining the insurance value of benefits is large from the start of the spell, but further increases throughout the spell.

    On average, savings and credit play a limited role in smoothing consumption. Our evidence therefore indicates that the recent change from a flat to a declining benefit profile in Sweden has decreased welfare. In fact, the local welfare gains push towards an increasing rather than decreasing benefit profile over the spell.

  • 22.
    Krusell, Per
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Smith, Anthony A. Jr.
    Is Piketty's 'Second Law of Capitalism' Fundamental?2015In: Journal of Political Economy, ISSN 0022-3808, E-ISSN 1537-534X, Vol. 123, no 4, p. 725-748Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 23. Lim, Claire S. H.
    et al.
    Snyder, James M. Jr.
    Strömberg, David
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    The Judge, the Politician and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing Across Electoral Systems2015In: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, ISSN 1945-7782, E-ISSN 1945-7790, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 103-135Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study how media environments interact with political institutions that structure the accountability of public officials. Specifically, we quantify media influence on the behavior of US state court judges. We analyze around 1.5 million criminal sentencing decisions from 1986 to 2006 and new data on the newspaper coverage of 9,828 trial court judges. Since newspaper coverage is endogenous, we use the match between newspaper markets and judicial districts to identify effects. We find that newspaper coverage significantly increases sentence length by nonpartisan elected judges for violent crimes. For partisan elected and appointed judges, there are no significant effects.

  • 24.
    Mitman, Kurt
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Rabinovich, Stanislav
    Optimal unemployment insurance in an equilibrium business-cycle model2015In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 71, p. 99-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The optimal cyclical behavior of unemployment insurance is characterized in an equilibrium search model with risk-averse workers. Contrary to the current US policy, the path of optimal unemployment benefits is pro-cyclical - positively correlated with productivity and employment. Furthermore, optimal unemployment benefits react non-monotonically to a productivity shock: in response to a fall in productivity, they rise on impact but then fall significantly below their pre-recession level during the recovery. As compared to the current US unemployment insurance policy, the optimal state-contingent unemployment benefits smooth cyclical fluctuations in unemployment and deliver substantial welfare gains.

  • 25. Mohlin, Erik
    et al.
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Wang, Joseph Tao-yi
    Lowest unique bid auctions with population uncertainty2015In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 134, p. 53-57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We characterize the unique Poisson-Nash equilibrium of the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) when the number of bidders is uncertain and follows a Poisson distribution.

  • 26.
    Nekoei, Arash
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Weber, Andrea
    Does extending unemployment benefits improve job quality?2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Contrary to standard search model predictions, prior studies failed to estimate a positive effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on reemployment wages. This paper estimates a positive UI wage effect exploiting an age-based regression discontinuity in Austrian administrative data. A search model incorporating duration dependence determines the UI wage effect as the balance between two offsetting forces: UI causes agents to seek higher-wage jobs, but also reduces wages by lengthening unemployment. This implies a negative relationship between the UI unemployment duration and wage effects, which holds empirically both in our sample and across studies, reconciling disparate wage-effect estimates. Empirically, UI raises wages by improving reemployment firms' quality and attenuating wage drops.

  • 27.
    Nekoei, Arash
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Weber, Andrea
    Recall Expectations and Duration Dependence2015In: The American Economic Review, ISSN 0002-8282, E-ISSN 1944-7981, Vol. 105, no 5, p. 142-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using novel administrative data from Austria, we investigate the nature of temporary layoffs and recalls. We find that on average jobs ending in temporary layoffs lasted shorter but paid higher wages. The majority of temporarily laid-off workers return to their previous employer, but also one-fifth of those permanently laid-off are recalled. Compared to job switchers, recalls have shorter unemployment spells and do not experience wage losses. Negative duration dependence of unemployment only appears once recall exits are excluded for temporary and permanent layoffs. However, for temporary layoffs, the aggregate pattern masks significant heterogeneity by pre-unemployment tenure. Additional survey evidence suggests a lower average search level for temporary layoffs.

  • 28.
    Persson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Behöver Nobelstiftelsen nya huset på Blasieholmen?2015In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 5 decArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 29.
    Persson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Greklands skuld skapar hat mellan grannar2015In: Svenska Dagbladet, ISSN 1101-2412, no 26 majArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 30.
    Persson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Nollränta, negativ ränta och andra räntor i Riksbankens arsenal2015In: Svensk ekonomisk politik - då, nu och i framtiden: festskrift tillägnad Hans Tson Söderström / [ed] Birgitta Swedenborg, Stockholm: Dialogos Förlag, 2015Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 31.
    Persson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Statsbankrutt raderar ut hela ECB:s kapital2015In: Dagens industri, ISSN 0346-640X, no 29 junArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 32.
    Persson, Mats
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Hassler, John
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Persson, Torsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Svensson, Jakob
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2015 års Ekonomipris till Angus Deaton2015In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 8, p. 6-16Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 33.
    Strömberg, David
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Media and Politics2015In: Annual Review of Economics, ISSN 1941-1383, E-ISSN 1941-1391, Vol. 7, p. 173-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article provides a review of recent literature in economics on the effect of mass media on politics. The focus is on the welfare effects of mass media. I also discuss the likely implications of existing behavioral theories of media effects, developed outside of economics.

  • 34.
    Strömberg, David
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Media Coverage and Political Accountability: Theory and Evidence2015In: Handbook of Media Economics: Vol. 1B / [ed] Simon P. Anderson, Joel Waldfogel and David Strömberg, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2015Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 35.
    Svensson, Lars E. O.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Sweden; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA.
    Forward Guidance2015In: The International Journal of Central Banking, ISSN 1815-4654, E-ISSN 1815-7556, Vol. 11, no 4, p. 19-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Forward guidance about future policy settings, in the form of a published policy rate path, has for many years been a natural part of normal monetary policy for several central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Swedish Riksbank. More recently, the Federal Reserve has started to publish FOMC participants' policy rate projections. The Swedish, New Zealand, and U.S. experience of a published policy rate path is examined, especially to what extent the market has anticipated the path (the predictability of the path) and to what extent market expectations line up with the path after publication (the credibility of the path). The recent Swedish experience is quite dramatic. In particular, it shows a case with a large discrepancy between a high and rising Riksbank path and a low and falling market path, with the market path providing a good forecast of the future policy rate. The discrepancy is explained by the Riksbank's leaning against the wind in recent years and related circumstances. The New Zealand experience is less dramatic but shows cases where the market implements either a substantially tighter or easier policy than intended by the RBNZ. There are also cases of the market being ahead of the RBNZ and the RBNZ later following the market. The U.S. experience includes a recent case of the market expecting and implementing substantially easier policy consistent with the FOMC projections, the possible explanation of which has been much discussed.

  • 36.
    Svensson, Lars E. O.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bulgaria; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA.
    The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target2015In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, ISSN 1945-7707, E-ISSN 1945-7715, Vol. 7, no 1, p. 258-296Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes nonvertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage points. The estimates reported suggest that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve is about 0.75. Then the average unemployment rate has been about 0.8 percentage points higher than if average inflation had been on target. This is a large unemployment cost of undershooting the inflation target.

1 - 36 of 36
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