Purpose of Review  We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.

Recent Findings  We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.

Summary  Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Permafrost thaw poses diverse risks to Arctic environments and livelihoods. Understanding the effects of permafrost thaw is vital for informed policymaking and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the consolidated findings of a risk analysis spanning four study regions: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the Avannaata municipality (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region and the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada) and the Bulunskiy District of the Sakha Republic (Russia). Local stakeholders’ and scientists’ perceptions shaped our understanding of the risks as dynamic, socionatural phenomena involving physical processes, key hazards, and societal consequences. Through an inter- and transdisciplinary risk analysis based on multidirectional knowledge exchanges and thematic network analysis, we identified five key hazards of permafrost thaw. These include infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. The study’s novelty resides in the comparative approach spanning different disciplines, environmental and societal contexts, and the transdisciplinary synthesis considering various risk perceptions.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2​O emissions across the NHL during 1861–2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration​, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 ± 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 ± 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007–2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 ± 17 % (279 ± 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N2O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 ± 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-permafrost regions. In addition, increased plant growth due to CO2 fertilization suppressed simulated emissions. However, permafrost soil N2O emissions continued increasing attributable to climate warming; the interaction of climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations on nitrogen and carbon cycling will determine future trends in NHL soil N2O emissions. The rigorous interplay between process modeling and field experimentation will be essential for improving model representations of the mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes in the Northern High Latitudes and for reducing associated uncertainties.

Methane emissions from the boreal-Arctic region are likely to increase due to warming and permafrost thaw, but the magnitude of increase is unconstrained. Here we show that distinguishing several wetland and lake classes improves our understanding of current and future methane emissions. Our estimate of net annual methane emission (1988–2019) was 34 (95% CI: 25–43) Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, dominated by five wetland (26 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) and seven lake (5.7 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) classes. Our estimate was lower than previous estimates due to explicit characterization of low methane-emitting wetland and lake classes, for example, permafrost bogs, bogs, large lakes and glacial lakes. To reduce uncertainty further, improved wetland maps and further measurements of wetland winter emissions and lake ebullition are needed. Methane emissions were estimated to increase by ~31% under a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5 by 2100), driven primarily by warming rather than permafrost thaw.

Prolonged drought is a major stressor for grassland ecosystems. In addition to decreasing plant productivity, it can affect soil microbial activities and thus destabilize nutrient cycling and carbon (C) sequestration. Soil organic amendments (OAs), such as compost, can be used to enhance soil fertility and mitigate drought effects. In this study, we evaluated the responses of fungal and bacterial communities to a 3-year-long experimental drought and compost treatment across four soil depths in two Swedish grasslands and at an upper and a lower topographic position. Results showed that while drought reduced soil moisture and compost amendment increased C content in the topsoil,the effects on microbial abundance and community composition within this time frame were weak, and detectable only in the topsoil. Fungal abundance increased with compost addition, which also affected community composition, while fungal communities were resistant to drought. Bacterial communities were not significantly affected by any of the treatments. This suggests that microbial ecosystem functions were resistant to the experimentally reduced precipitation. Overall, variation between sampling sites was more important for microbial community composition than treatments, highlighting the need for a better understanding of small-spatial-scale environmental controls on soil microbial and plant communities and their ecosystem functions.

Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool on the planet, and targeted grassland management has the potential to increase grassland C sequestration. Appropriate land management strategies, such as organic matter addition, can increase soil C stocks and improve grasslands' resilience to drought by improving soil water retention and infiltration. However, soil carbon dynamics are closely tied to vegetation responses to management and climatic changes, which affect roots and shoots differently. This study presents findings from a 3-year field experiment on two Swedish grasslands that assessed the impact of compost amendment and experimental drought on plant biomass and soil C to a depth of 45 cm. Aboveground biomass and soil C content (% C) increased compared with untreated controls in compost-amended plots; however, because bulk density decreased, there was no significant effect on soil C stocks. Experimental drought did not significantly reduce plant biomass compared to control plots, but it stunted the increase in aboveground biomass in compost-treated plots and led to changes in root traits. These results highlight the complexity of ecosystem C dynamics and the importance of considering multiple biotic and abiotic factors across spatial scales when developing land management strategies to enhance C sequestration.

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010-2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000-2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr-1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159-369] Tg CH4 yr-1 for the 2010-2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010-2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 553-586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr-1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350-391 Tg CH4 yr-1 or 63 %-68 %). For the 2000-2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010-2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 9-40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 581-627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr-1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 512-849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010-2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr-1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510-663] Tg CH4 yr-1 based on chemistry-climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000-2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507-796] Tg CH4 yr-1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550-567] Tg CH4 yr-1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010-2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213-242] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195-231] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100-124] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117-125] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26-27] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21-39] Tg CH4 yr-1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

In recognition of the importance of inland waters, numerous datasets mapping their extents, types, or changes have been created using sources ranging from historical wetland maps to real-time satellite remote sensing. However, differences in definitions and methods have led to spatial and typological inconsistencies among individual data sources, confounding their complementary use and integration. The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), published in 2004, with its globally seamless depiction of 12 major vegetated and non-vegetated wetland classes at 1 km grid cell resolution, has emerged over the last few decades as a foundational reference map that has advanced research and conservation planning addressing freshwater biodiversity, ecosystem services, greenhouse gas emissions, land surface processes, hydrology, and human health. Here, we present a new iteration of this map, termed GLWD version 2, generated by harmonizing the latest ground- and satellite-based data products into one single database. Following the same design principle as its predecessor, GLWD v2 aims to avoid double counting of overlapping surface water features while differentiating between natural and non-natural lakes, rivers of multiple sizes, and several other wetland types. The classification of GLWD v2 incorporates information on seasonality (i.e., permanent vs. intermittent vs. ephemeral); inundation vs. saturation (i.e., flooding vs. waterlogged soils), vegetation cover (e.g., forested swamps vs. non-forested marshes), salinity (e.g., salt pans), natural vs. non-natural origins (e.g., rice paddies), and stratification of landscape position and water source (e.g., riverine, lacustrine, palustrine, coastal/marine). GLWD v2 represents 33 wetland classes and – including all intermittent classes – depicts a maximum of 18.2 ×10⁶ km² of wetlands (13.4 % of the global land area excluding Antarctica). The spatial extent of each class is provided as the fractional coverage within each grid cell at a resolution of 15 arcsec (approximately 500 m at the Equator), with cell fractions derived from input data at resolutions as small as 10 m. The upgraded GLWD v2 offers an improved representation of inland surface water extents and their classification for contemporary conditions (∼ 1984–2020). Despite being a static map, it includes classes that denote intrinsic temporal dynamics. GLWD v2 is designed to facilitate large-scale hydrological, ecological, biogeochemical, and conservation applications, aiming to support the study and protection of wetland ecosystems around the world. The GLWD v2 database is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28519994 (Lehner et al., 2025).

The dynamics of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during and following the last deglaciation have mainly been ascribed to carbon release from and uptake in oceans, primarily in the Southern Ocean. But recent studies also point toward a terrestrial influence. We quantify dynamic changes to northern terrestrial carbon stocks from the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years) until present at millennial time steps using a combination of paleo-data and climate-biome modeling. During the deglaciation, northern land carbon storage declined by >300 petagrams of carbon with a minimum around 11,000 years, followed by progressively higher land carbon stocks during the Holocene. We find evidence that dynamic changes in terrestrial land carbon stocks were of a scale to exert large influence on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and that postglacial terrestrial carbon stock dynamics were dominated by losses from permafrost-affected loess and gains into peatlands.

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the globe. Such Arctic amplification rapidly changes hydrometeorological conditions with consequences for the structuring of cold-adapted terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Arctic ecosystems, which have a relatively small buffering capacity, are particularly susceptible to hydrometeorological regime shifts thus frequently undergo system-scale transitions. Abrupt ecosystem changes are often triggered by disturbances and extreme events that shift the ecosystem state beyond its buffering threshold capacity thus irreversibly changing its functioning (ecosystem tipping). The tipping depends on spatial and temporal scales. At the local scale, feedback between soil organic matter and soil physics could lead to multiple steady states and a tipping from high to low soil carbon storages. On the continental scale, local tipping is smoothed and the changes are rather gradual (no clear tipping threshold). However, due to the centennial timescale of soil carbon and vegetation dynamics, Arctic ecosystems are not in equilibrium with the changing climate, so a tipping could occur at a later time. Earth Observation (EO) is useful for monitoring ongoing changes in permafrost and freshwater systems, in particular extreme events and disturbances, as indicators of a possible tipping point. Lake change observations support gradual rather than abrupt transitions in different permafrost regions until a hydrological tipping point where lake areas start to decline leading to regional drying. Due to floodplain abundance, floodplains should be considered separately when using satellite-derived water extent records to analyse potential tipping behaviour associated with lakes. Reduction in surface water extent, increasing autocorrelation of water level of larger lakes and the impact of extreme events on ground ice can all be observed with satellite data across the Arctic. The analysis of Earth System simulations suggests significant impacts of changes in permafrost hydrology on hydroclimate in the tropics and subtropics, but there is no clear threshold in global temperature for these shifts in hydroclimate.