This study examines the influence of students’ ordinal positions in the distribution of grades in their ninth-grade school cohort on subsequent educational and labor market outcomes using population-wide data for Sweden. The identification strategy uses differences between students’ ranks in their school and their ranks in the country-wide ability distribution after conditioning on school-cohort fixed effects and school-level grade distributions. The findings reveal an advantage of occupying a higher rank in school with respect to educational and labor market accomplishments in adulthood, whereas a lower rank yields adverse consequences. Contrary to findings from the United States, no effect is found for students situated in the middle of the rank distribution. This study also shows that ordinal rank effects are more pronounced for students with lower socio-economic status and for female students at the top of their school ability distribution. This study highlights the importance of students’ rank positions in determining their future academic and professional outcomes.

Introduction 

A growing body of evidence has established alcohol consumption as a causative factor in an increasing array of cancer types, thereby positioning it as a leading global risk factor for cancer. Surprisingly, there is a scarcity of studies examining the extent to which shifts in population drinking affect cancer mortality, despite the substantial public health implications. This paper aims to: (i) estimate the impact of changes in per capita alcohol consumption on both overall cancer mortality rates and specific types of alcohol-related cancer; and (ii) assess whether the association between cancer and population alcohol consumption is influenced by a country’s drinking patterns.

Methods

We used time-series data for 19 high-income countries spanning the period 1960–2018. Cigarette sales and GDP per capita were included as control variables. The data were analysed using first-difference modelling. The World Health Organization drinking patterns score was used to evaluate a country’s drinking pattern.

Results

Our findings revealed that a 1 L per capita increase in alcohol consumption was associated with a 0.9% rise in total cancer mortality among women and a 1.1% increase among men. Notably, among men, the association was more pronounced for cancers with strong evidence of alcohol’s effect and for prostate cancer. For women, the alcohol effect was statistically significant for breast cancer. Generally, the estimated alcohol effects were elevated in the country group with more harmful drinking patterns.

Discussion and Conclusions

Our results indicate that lowering per capita alcohol consumption is likely to reduce cancer mortality.

Study I: This paper investigates the effect of the academic ordinal rank position of Swedish grade 9 students relative to their school peers on future educational achievement and adult earnings. The results show evidence of a positive impact of being more highly ranked in the class, and the effects are concentrated to the top and the bottom of the ordinal rank distribution. High-ability students from low-income families gained the most from having a higher ordinal rank in grade 9. The results contrast with US findings, which suggest a similar impact across the rank distribution.

Study II: This paper studies the effect of a reform that increased school-level autonomy in determining how to allocate time between different subjects in Sweden. It evaluates the impact of the reform using registry data in a Difference-in-Differences framework. The results suggest that students' educational outcomes, including the subsequent choice of educational track, were not affected by the reform. However, there are some indications that students in large schools and students from low socioeconomic households may have benefited from the reform. 

Study III: Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (p<0.001), and a long-term decrease equal to −1.59 (p<0.001). However, period-specific analyses revealed a structural break implying that the procyclical effect outweighs the protective effect in the period prior to 1976, whereas the reverse is true for the period 1976–2011. 

Study IV: Unemployment might affect several risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of death globally. The characterization of the relation between these two phenomena is thus of great significance from a public-health perspective. The main aim of this study was to estimate the association between the unemployment rate and mortality from CVD and from coronary heart disease (CHD). We used time-series data for 32 countries spanning the period 1960–2015. We applied two alternative modelling strategies: (a) error correction modelling, provided that the data were co-integrated; and (b) first-difference modelling in the absence of co-integration. Separate models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection. We also performed country-specific ARIMA-analyses. Because the data did not prove to be co-integrated, we applied first-difference modelling. Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that heart-disease mortality does not respond to economic fluctuations.

Background: All-cause mortality is a global indicator of the overall health of the population, and its relation to the macro economy is thus of vital interest. The main aim was to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Variations in the unemployment rate were used as indicator of temporary fluctuations in the economy. Methods: We used time-series data for 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1960–2018. We used four outcomes: total mortality (0+), infant mortality (<1), mortality in the age-group 20–64, and old-age mortality (65+). Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. Unemployment data (% unemployed in the work force) were sourced from Eurostat. We applied error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Results: We found that increases in unemployment were statistically significantly associated with decreases in all mortality outcomes except old-age mortality. Increases in GDP were associated with significant lowering long-term effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that an increase in unemployment leads to a decrease in all-cause mortality. However, economic growth, as indicated by increased GDP, has a long-term protective health impact as indexed by lowered mortality.

Background: Unemployment might affect several risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of death globally. The characterisation of the relation between these two phenomena is thus of great significance from a public-health perspective. The main aim of this study was to estimate the association between the unemployment rate and mortality from CVD and from coronary heart disease (CHD). Additional aims were (a) to assess whether the associations are modified by the degree of unemployment protection; (b) to determine the impact of GDP on heart-disease mortality; and (c) to assess the impact of the Great Recession in this context. Methods: We used time-series data for 32 countries spanning the period 1960–2015. We applied two alternative modelling strategies: (a) error correction modelling, provided that the data were co-integrated; and (b) first-difference modelling in the absence of co-integration. Separate models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection. We also performed country-specific ARIMA-analyses. Results: Because the data did not prove to be co-integrated, we applied first-difference modelling. The estimated effect of unemployment and GDP on CVD as well as CHD was statistically insignificant across age and sex groups and across the various welfare state regimes. An interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession was also statistically insignificant. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that heart-disease mortality does not respond to economic fluctuations.

Background Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. Methods We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. Results The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (p<0.001), and a long-term decrease equal to -1.59 (p<0.001). However, period-specific analyses revealed a structural break implying that the procyclical effect outweighs the protective effect in the period prior to 1976, whereas the reverse is true for the period 1976-2011. Conclusions An increase in GDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s.