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Baatsen, Michiel L. J.ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-0123-7005
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Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Foley, K. M., Hunter, S. J., . . . Lunt, D. J. (2020). The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity. Climate of the Past, 16(6), 2095-2123
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
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2020 (Engelska)Ingår i: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 16, nr 6, s. 2095-2123Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

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Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap
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urn:nbn:se:su:diva-188157 (URN)10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 (DOI)000589260100002 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2021-01-03 Skapad: 2021-01-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-02-07Bibliografiskt granskad
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ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-0123-7005

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