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Nilsson, A., Bäckman, O., Estrada, F. & Sivertsson, F. (2025). Social change and birth cohort differences in recorded crime: is there increasing or decreasing inequality among young offenders from different social backgrounds?. In: Stephen Farrall; Susan McVie (Ed.), Handbook on Crime and Inequality: (pp. 328-349). Edward Elgar Publishing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Social change and birth cohort differences in recorded crime: is there increasing or decreasing inequality among young offenders from different social backgrounds?
2025 (English)In: Handbook on Crime and Inequality / [ed] Stephen Farrall; Susan McVie, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2025, p. 328-349Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Crime is unequally distributed with respect to both who becomes involved in offending and the frequency with which these individuals offend. However, we know less about how these properties of the crime distribution have themselves changed over time. In cases where crime levels have changed, have these changes been general, affecting all social groups equally, or have they been more focused on certain social groups? We examine the changing social composition of known offenders using Swedish administrative data to determine whether inequality in offending is increasing or decreasing. Our analyses are based on a multicohort approach. The results show that the proportion of convicted men has decreased. Those who are convicted for crimes have therefore become an increasingly selected group. This has also entailed that they have increasingly come to be made up of groups with less resourceful socio-economic backgrounds, which in turn has fostered a more unequal distribution of crime.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Edward Elgar Publishing, 2025
Keywords
Crime trends, Criminal convictions, Inequality, Multicohort design, Offender groups, Social change
National Category
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-242398 (URN)10.4337/9781800883604.00025 (DOI)2-s2.0-105000750134 (Scopus ID)9781800883598 (ISBN)
Available from: 2025-04-24 Created: 2025-04-24 Last updated: 2025-04-24Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, A., Bäckman, O., Estrada, F. & Sivertsson, F. (2025). Social change and birth cohort differences in recorded crime: is there increasing or decreasing inequality among young offenders from different social backgrounds?. In: Stephen Farrall; Susan McVie (Ed.), Handbook on Crime and Inequality: (pp. 328-349). Edward Elgar Publishing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Social change and birth cohort differences in recorded crime: is there increasing or decreasing inequality among young offenders from different social backgrounds?
2025 (English)In: Handbook on Crime and Inequality / [ed] Stephen Farrall; Susan McVie, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2025, p. 328-349Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Edward Elgar Publishing, 2025
National Category
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-255191 (URN)001694664700020 ()9781800883598 (ISBN)
Available from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-05-11 Last updated: 2026-05-11Bibliographically approved
Al Weswasi, E., Sivertsson, F., Bäckman, O. & Nilsson, A. (2023). Does sentence length affect the risk for criminal recidivism? A quasi-experimental study of three policy reforms in Sweden. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 19(4), 971-999
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does sentence length affect the risk for criminal recidivism? A quasi-experimental study of three policy reforms in Sweden
2023 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Criminology, ISSN 1573-3750, E-ISSN 1572-8315, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 971-999Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives This study examines the relationship between incarceration time and post-release recidivism among first-time incarcerated adult offenders.

Methods A quasi-experimental design was adopted consisting of three policy reforms that were treated as separate natural experiments. While holding imposed sentence length constant, these policy reforms either decreased or increased the required share of a sentence inmates needed to be incarcerated before being eligible for parole. Data consisted of large-scale administrative records containing all convictions for the Swedish cohorts born in 1958 and later.

Results Results indicate that neither increased nor decreased incarceration time had a statistically significant effect on post-release recidivism, irrespective of how recidivism was measured.

Conclusions Findings reveal little evidence for incarceration time having a criminogenic or specific preventive effect on post-release recidivism.

Keywords
Incarceration length, Recidivism, Parole, Quasi-experiment
National Category
Other Legal Research Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-205148 (URN)10.1007/s11292-022-09513-1 (DOI)000797261400001 ()2-s2.0-85130212528 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-07-11 Created: 2022-07-11 Last updated: 2025-04-22Bibliographically approved
Estrada, F., Bäckman, O. & Nilsson, A. (2022). Biased Enforcement Expansion? Sociodemographic Differences in Police Drug Testing for Suspected Narcotics Use 1993-2015. British Journal of Criminology, 62(5), 1213-1232
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Biased Enforcement Expansion? Sociodemographic Differences in Police Drug Testing for Suspected Narcotics Use 1993-2015
2022 (English)In: British Journal of Criminology, ISSN 0007-0955, E-ISSN 1464-3529, Vol. 62, no 5, p. 1213-1232Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Since the 1990s, Sweden has witnessed a steady increase in the control measures focused on drug offences. These changes are results of political dynamics once pushed by centre-right parties but thereafter embraced by Social Democrats in government. The article examines the structure of police controls of drug offences and the extent to which these controls have focused on different sociodemographic groups during the period 1995-2015. The study shows that this intensified control of minor drug crimes has resulted in successively larger proportions of youths from deprived areas being forced to provide samples of body fluids. The criminalization of drug use constitutes an example of the significance of crime policy for both crime levels and the composition of the offender population.

Keywords
crime trends, policing, discrimination, register data, inequality, Sweden
National Category
Law
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-210052 (URN)10.1093/bjc/azac037 (DOI)000854272900009 ()2-s2.0-85145459684 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-10-05 Created: 2022-10-05 Last updated: 2024-10-14Bibliographically approved
Estrada, F., Flyghed, J. & Nilsson, A. (Eds.). (2022). Den svenska ungdomsbrottsligheten (5ed.). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Den svenska ungdomsbrottsligheten
2022 (Swedish)Collection (editor) (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Ungdomsbrottslighet framstår som ett av de centrala problem­områdena i såväl kriminologisk forskning som i svensk samhällsdebatt. I den här antologin medverkar flera av landets främsta experter på ungdomsbrottslighet. Utifrån sin forskning belyser de centrala frågor kring ungdomars brottslighet. Denna femte upplaga innehåller fem helt nyskrivna kapitel som behandlar skjutningar i gängmiljöer, skolan och brottsligheten, ungas utsatthet för brott, ungdomsbrottslighet ur ett livsförloppsperspektiv samt social förändring och ungdomsbrottslighet. Övriga kapitel har genomgått omfattande uppdateringar och omarbetningar. Sammantaget ger boken utifrån skilda perspektiv och metoder en mångfacetterad kunskap om ungdomsbrottslighetens karaktär, omfattning och utveckling, dess orsaker och förklaringar samt om samhällets åtgärder och reaktioner.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund: Studentlitteratur AB, 2022. p. 435 Edition: 5
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-209925 (URN)978-91-44-15298-1 (ISBN)
Available from: 2022-09-28 Created: 2022-09-28 Last updated: 2022-09-28Bibliographically approved
Sivertsson, F., Nilsson, A. & Estrada, F. (2022). Färre men värre? En kohortanalys av lagförd våldsbrottslighet bland unga män födda 1985–1999. In: Amir Rostami; Jerzy Sarnecki (Ed.), Det svenska tillståndet: en antologi om brottsutvecklingen i Sverige (pp. 97-123). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Färre men värre? En kohortanalys av lagförd våldsbrottslighet bland unga män födda 1985–1999
2022 (Swedish)In: Det svenska tillståndet: en antologi om brottsutvecklingen i Sverige / [ed] Amir Rostami; Jerzy Sarnecki, Lund: Studentlitteratur AB, 2022, p. 97-123Chapter in book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund: Studentlitteratur AB, 2022
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-205502 (URN)9789144153131 (ISBN)
Available from: 2022-06-07 Created: 2022-06-07 Last updated: 2022-06-07Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, A. & Bäckman, O. (2022). Social förändring och ungdomsbrottslighet: lagförd brottslighet bland födda 1975-2000 (5ed.). In: Felipe Estrada; Janne Flyghed; Anders Nilsson (Ed.), Den svenska ungdomsbrottsligheten: (pp. 267-306). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Social förändring och ungdomsbrottslighet: lagförd brottslighet bland födda 1975-2000
2022 (Swedish)In: Den svenska ungdomsbrottsligheten / [ed] Felipe Estrada; Janne Flyghed; Anders Nilsson, Lund: Studentlitteratur AB, 2022, 5, p. 267-306Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Inte bara individuella faktorer spelar roll för brottsligheten utan även de förutsättningar som ges av det omgivande samhället. Till de senare hör strukturella förhållanden, som exempelvis utbildningssystem och arbetsmarknad, men också, och med mer direkt koppling till brottslighet, tillfällesstruktur och hur samhället ser på, prioriterar och bemöter brottsligheten. I detta kapitel intresserar vi oss för förändringar i a) ungdomars brottslighet, b) hur brottsligheten skiljer sig mellan olika grupper av unga, respektive c) hur det på lite längre sikt går för de ungdomar som begått brott. Vi gör det utifrån en så kallad multikohortansats där olika födelsekohorter, det vill säga personer födda samma år, följs över tid. Den äldsta födelsekohorten vi studerar utgörs av födda år 1975 och den yngsta av födda år 2000. Det rör sig alltså om kohorter som vuxit upp vid olika tidpunkter och, eftersom samhället förändras, under delvis olika strukturella förhållanden. Har det även inneburit variationer i ungas brottslighet och hur det går för de unga som begått brott på längre sikt?

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund: Studentlitteratur AB, 2022 Edition: 5
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-209927 (URN)978-91-44-15298-1 (ISBN)
Available from: 2022-09-28 Created: 2022-09-28 Last updated: 2022-09-28Bibliographically approved
Bäckman, O., Estrada, F., Nilsson, A. & Sivertsson, F. (2021). Criminal convictions and immigrant background 1973–2017 in Sweden – have differences increased or declined?. Nordic Journal of Criminology, 22(2), 149-168
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Criminal convictions and immigrant background 1973–2017 in Sweden – have differences increased or declined?
2021 (English)In: Nordic Journal of Criminology, ISSN 2578-983X, E-ISSN 2578-9821, Vol. 22, no 2, p. 149-168Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates Swedish conviction trends by individuals’ immigrant background for the period 1973–2017. The central research question is whether relative differences in conviction levels have increased, declined or remained unchanged over recent decades. This question is examined in part using a traditional cross-sectional approach, and in part using a cohort-based approach. All results are presented by gender, and results for the cohort-based approach also by holding socioeconomic background constant. The results show that conviction levels have decreased, to a greater extent among men than among women, irrespective of immigrant background. The level of overrepresentation among those born in Sweden to foreign-born parents has increased somewhat, while the overrepresentation of those born abroad has decreased towards the end of the period examined.

Keywords
crime trends, immigration, immigrant background, crime
National Category
Sociology
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192730 (URN)10.1080/2578983X.2021.1900038 (DOI)
Projects
Den ojämlika brottsligheten
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-01201
Available from: 2021-04-28 Created: 2021-04-28 Last updated: 2025-12-01Bibliographically approved
Sivertsson, F., Nilsson, A. & Bäckman, O. (2021). Participation and Frequency in Criminal Convictions across 25 Successive Birth Cohorts: Collectivity, Polarization, or Convergence?. Justice quarterly, 38(6), 995-1018
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Participation and Frequency in Criminal Convictions across 25 Successive Birth Cohorts: Collectivity, Polarization, or Convergence?
2021 (English)In: Justice quarterly, ISSN 0741-8825, E-ISSN 1745-9109, Vol. 38, no 6, p. 995-1018Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Against the backdrop of an overall declining crime trend our overarching objective is to explore whether this development has concealed any degree of divergence between participation and frequency in crime. We employ Swedish longitudinal data comprising 25 complete birth cohorts born between 1960 and 1984 and followed to age 30 using convictions data. The results show a complex pattern of change, by which the crime rate partly conceals divergent processes between participation and frequency. In particular, among the males we find a consistent decrease in the size of the convicted population, whereas the frequency of crimes among convicted offenders has increased across cohorts born during the early 1970s and later. We discuss the results against both behavioral and reactional mechanisms and conclude that future crime trends research should consider a broad range of criminal career parameters which cannot be discerned using aggregate crime data.

Keywords
The crime drop, criminal careers, age–crime curve, longitudinal, birth cohort
National Category
Sociology
Research subject
Criminology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-177216 (URN)10.1080/07418825.2019.1699941 (DOI)000503136400001 ()
Available from: 2019-12-18 Created: 2019-12-18 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Estrada, F., Nilsson, A., Pettersson, T. & Assadkhan, D. (2019). Kvinnors brottslighet som samhällsproblem. In: Anita Heber; Lena Roxell (Ed.), Att odla kriminologi. Perspektiv på brott och utsatthet: Festskrift till Eva Tiby (pp. 117-134). Stockholm: Stockholm University
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Kvinnors brottslighet som samhällsproblem
2019 (Swedish)In: Att odla kriminologi. Perspektiv på brott och utsatthet: Festskrift till Eva Tiby / [ed] Anita Heber; Lena Roxell, Stockholm: Stockholm University, 2019, p. 117-134Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm University, 2019
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-166887 (URN)978-91-87355-67-7 (ISBN)
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2015-00316
Available from: 2019-03-06 Created: 2019-03-06 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-2985-6366

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