We have compared 16 years of fish catch data, primarily for perch (Perca fluviatilis) from two archipelago areas in the Baltic Sea, one strongly impacted by coastal development and the other a reference area. Comparisons were also done with five years of data from a third area, where the coastline is only modestly modified. In addition, data from a smaller study is included, in which one of the three areas is extremely impacted and probably without any natural shores left. There were no general differences in catches of perch between heavily developed and the much less impacted areas.

Even large inflows of oxygen-rich seawater to the Baltic Proper have in recent decades given only short-lived relief from oxygen deficiency below the halocline. We analyse long-term changes in oxygen deficiency, and calculate the “total oxygen debt” ΣOD, the oxygen required to oxidize the hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and ammonium (NH₄) that builds up during stagnation periods. Since the early 1990s, oxygen below 65m has gradually decreased during successive stagnation periods, and the ΣΣOD has increased, with NH₄ more important than previously recognised. After the major inflow in 2014, the Baltic Proper ΣOD has reached its highest level so far. The gradual shift of the ΣOD to shallower sub-halocline waters in the western and northern basins has increased the risk of periodic coastal hypoxia and export of hypoxic water to the Bothnian Sea. The potential for inflows large enough to more than eliminate the ΣOD seems limited in the near term.

We estimated phytoplankton depth-integrated primary production rates at an open sea station in the northern Baltic Proper in 2004–2009 by parallel in situ and ship-board incubations in an “ICES incubator”. Observations were strongly linearly related (r² = 0.67, p < 0.00001) and produced similar seasonal signals, but incubator estimates were significantly lower in spring (_∼5–20%, March–May) and summer (_∼30%, June–August), but not in autumn (September–October). Incubator P^B_max was significantly lower in all seasons (_∼10, 23, and 14% in spring, summer, and autumn), and the initial slope of the P^B/E-curve (α^B) was two-thirds of in-situ α^B in spring and autumn, and half in summer, but not significantly different in autumn, and had an order of magnitude lower standard deviation. Parallel incubations of mixed 0–10 m hose samples at discrete depths in situ and in the incubator gave similar differences in P^B_max and α^B. This strongly suggests that the main factor causing the lower photosynthesis rates in the incubator was light quality, since all other potential sources of variability were similar. However, we cannot rule out that the lower incubator P^B_max was partly due to insufficient light compared to in situ, particularly in summer. Our results suggest that a major challenge to the harmonization of ¹⁴C in situ, and artificial light and deck incubator measurements, is to simulate spectral composition changes with depth or, alternatively, use phytoplankton action spectra or constructed action spectra that are less complicated and time-consuming to establish (Kyewalyanga et al., 1997). 

Nutrient concentrations in coastal waters are influenced not only by land runoff, point sources, and water exchange with the sea but are also modified by settlement to and release from sediments. This complicates evaluation of measures to reduce nutrient loads. We used a mass-balance box model to calculate long-term (1968-2015) and seasonal source contributions to phosphorus (P) concentrations and cycling in the stratified Stockholm inner archipelago (IA), Baltic Sea. A drastic reduction of sewage P loads in the early 1970s reduced sewage from the major to a minor P source. Further P load reductions in the 1990s cut the direct contribution from the sewage point sources to the annual mean surface water P concentration from 10 mu g l(-1)(25%) to < 4 mu g l(-1)(12%). The largest contributions to the surface water P concentration are now (from 1996) inflowing seawater (37%), freshwater (25%), and P recycling from sediments below 20 m depth (26%). Variations in freshwater flushing give higher P concentrations in dry years, when dilution of P inputs from sediments and sewage is small, while in wet years, these inputs are greatly diluted. Source-partitioned phosphate uptake shows that the spring bloom is fueled mainly by P of seawater and freshwater origin, while the contribution from sewage point sources is minor. Since sediment P release is mostly recycled P from the settled spring bloom, the P inputs from seawater and freshwater are now the major drivers of the IA P cycle. Recycling of P from sediments boosts surface water P concentrations in autumn and winter, affecting management target concentrations.

Spring phytoplankton blooms contribute a substantial part to annual production, support pelagic and benthic secondary production and influence biogeochemical cycles in many temperate aquatic systems. Understanding environmental effects on spring bloom dynamics is important for predicting future climate responses and for managing aquatic systems. We analyzed long-term phytoplankton data from one coastal and one offshore station in the Baltic Sea to uncover trends in timing, composition and size of the spring bloom and its correlations to environmental variables. There was a general trend of earlier phytoplankton blooms by 1-2 weeks over the last 20 years, associated with more sunshine and less windy conditions. High water temperatures were associated with earlier blooms of diatoms and dinoflagellates that dominate the spring bloom, and decreased diatom bloom magnitude. Overall bloom timing, however, was buffered by a temperature and ice related shift in composition from early blooming diatoms to later blooming dinoflagellates and the autotrophic ciliate Mesodinium rubrum. Such counteracting responses to climate change highlight the importance of both general and taxon-specific investigations. We hypothesize that the predicted earlier blooms of diatoms and dinoflagellates as a response to the expected temperature increase in the Baltic Sea might also be counteracted by more clouds and stronger winds. A shift from early blooming and fast sedimenting diatoms to later blooming groups of dinoflagellates and M. rubrum at higher temperatures during the spring period is expected to increase energy transfers to pelagic secondary production and decrease spring bloom inputs to the benthic system, resulting in lower benthic production and reduced oxygen consumption.

Perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) are among the more common coastal fish species in the Baltic Sea. They are often targeted in environment monitoring programs as well as in ecological research, in which knowledge of their basic biology, including migration and feeding ranges, are needed in the sampling design and for interpretation of data. Body condition (length-mass relationship) differences between stations separated by at most a few kilometres show that both species are reasonably sedentary even in areas without obvious migration barriers. Collecting representative samples, even from a reasonably small water body, may thus require careful planning.

Internal phosphorus (P) loading from sediments, controlled by hypoxia, is often assumed to hamper the recovery of lakes and coastal areas from eutrophication. In the early 1970s, the external P load to the inner archipelago of Stockholm, Sweden (Baltic Sea), was drastically reduced by improved sewage treatment, but the internal P loading and its controlling factors have been poorly quantified. We use two slightly different four-layer box models to calculate the area's seasonal and annual P balance (input-export) and the internal P exchange with sediments in 1968-2015. For 1020 years after the main P load reduction, there was a negative P balance, small in comparison to the external load, and probably due to release from legacy sediment P storage. Later, the stabilized, near-neutral P balance indicates no remaining internal loading from legacy P, but P retention is low, despite improved oxygen conditions. Seasonally, sediments are a P sink in spring and a P source in summer and autumn. Most of the deep-water P release from sediments in summer-autumn appears to be derived from the settled spring bloom and is exported to outer areas during winter. Oxygen consumption and P release in the deep water are generally tightly coupled, indicating limited iron control of P release. However, enhanced P release in years of deep-water hypoxia suggests some contribution from redox-sensitive P pools. Increasing deep-water temperatures that stimulate oxygen consumption rates in early summer have counteracted the effect of lowered organic matter sedimentation on oxygen concentrations. Since the P turnover time is short and legacy P small, measures to bind P in Stockholm inner archipelago sediments would primarily accumulate recent P inputs, imported from the Baltic Sea and from Lake Mälaren.

Assessing the relative importance of environmental conditions and community interactions is necessary for evaluating the sensitivity of biological communities to anthropogenic change. Phytoplankton communities have a central role in aquatic food webs and biogeochemical cycles, therefore, consequences of differing community sensitivities may have broad ecosystem effects. Using two long-term time series (28 and 20 years) from the Baltic Sea, we evaluated coastal and offshore major phytoplankton taxonomic group biovolume patterns over annual and monthly time-scales and assessed their response to environmental drivers and biotic interactions. Overall, coastal phytoplankton responded more strongly to environmental anomalies than offshore phytoplankton, although the specific environmental driver changed with time scale. A trend indicating a state shift in annual biovolume anomalies occurred at both sites and the shift's timing at the coastal site closely tracked other long-term Baltic Sea ecosystem shifts. Cyanobacteria and the autotrophic ciliate Mesodinium rubrum were more strongly related than other groups to this trend with opposing relationships that were consistent across sites. On a monthly scale, biotic interactions within communities were rare and did not overlap between the coastal and offshore sites. Annual scales may be better able to assess general patterns across habitat types in the Baltic Sea, but monthly community dynamics may differ at relatively small spatial scales and consequently respond differently to future change.

In the northern Baltic Sea Proper, total nitrogen (TN) increases during the summer bloom of filamentous heterocystous cyanobacteria. To follow the fate of the nitrogen they fix, we studied several N fractions during the bloom. We measured cyanobacterial biomass, TN, particulate organic N (PON, two size fractions), dissolved organic N (DON), and PON sedimentation in two areas in 2011. TN increased mainly due to increasing PON, but also to DON. Cyanobacteria contributed about 20% of the PON increase and ~ 10% of the TN increase. About half the PON changes (increase, then decrease) could be explained by the sum of cyanobacteria, other autotrophs (> 2 μm) and zooplankton, indicating that the bloom stimulates primary and secondary production. TN decreased after the bloom mainly due to declining PON > 10 μm, but sedimentation rates did not increase and could explain little of the post-bloom N-loss. There was little settling of undecomposed cyanobacteria.

The seasonal development of Aphanizomenon sp. and N pools was similar among stations and areas. For Nodularia spumigena between-station variability increased once patchy surface accumulations developed. A brief Dolichospermum spp. bloom indicated that sampling frequency may be more important than spatial resolution for capturing dynamics of this bloom.

In late autumn/winter 2007, high abundances of the alternate-stage Prymnesium polylepis were observed in many Baltic Sea areas, attaining bloom concentrations in spring 2008. To understand long-term variability in Prymnesiales density, we analysed changes in the abundance of different size classes of Prymnesiales using a long-term time series (1985-2008) for an inshore-offshore gradient in the northern Baltic proper. Further, to understand environmental conditions contributing to the P. polylepis bloom, we examined environmental factors associated with the increase in Prymnesiales abundances by placing the bloom dynamics within the context of temporal and spatial environmental variability over the last decades in the Baltic Sea. Significantly increasing abundances were found for larger size classes of Prymnesiales (6-10 mu m and >10 mu m) but not for the smaller species (Prymnesiales < 6 mu m). Our analyses indicate that high spring sea surface temperatures favor development of larger Prymnesiales (6-10 mu m and > 10 mu m) that tolerate low annual NO2+NO3 concentrations. Thus, long-term trends in increase in abundance, as well as changes in the relative contributions of species within these potentially toxic haptophytes, are likely to be the result of interacting changes in temperature and nutrient conditions since the late 1980s.