Massive summer blooms of cyanobacteria are a regular feature of the Baltic Sea, with impacts on primary production, nitrogen cycling, food chain structure and bottom layer oxygen deficiency. While many attempts have been made to associate the initiation of those blooms with certain forcing factors, the resulting models have had very limited predictive power. Here we analyse the statistical relationships between the timing of cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea and various forcing factors. Our analysis is based on a 25-year time series (2000–2024) of satellite-derived frequency of cyanobacteria accumulations (FCA) in 36 characteristic areas. We find that sea surface temperature (SST) does not control the initiation of a bloom but, on the contrary, SST during bloom initiation is a function of the bloom timing. Bloom initiation is associated with increasing SST caused by surface irradiance, coupled with low wind speed that results in reduced vertical mixing. However, while this combination of factors is required, it is not always sufficient to start a bloom, suggesting that additional factors or interactions are required.

Water transparency can be measured with optical instruments and estimated with satellite sensors, but such measurements have been widely available for only a few decades. Estimates of water transparency using a white disk called a Secchi disk have been made for over a century and can be used to estimate long-term trends. However, historic in situ measurements of the Secchi depth (Z_Sd) were irregular in space and time and are difficult to interpret in regular time series due to biases introduced by changing locations and the timing of measurements. Satellite data time series, on the other hand, have consistent resolution in both space and time but cover too short a time to resolve climate-scale trends. We normalized historic Z_Sd measurements in the Baltic Sea with a satellite-derived mean climatology at 5 d temporal and 4 km spatial resolutions and created a merged time series of Z_Sd for the last century. The mean Z_Sd in the Baltic Sea from 1927-2020 decreased by 4.2 ± 0.6 m at a rate of 0.045 ± 0.06 m yr^-1. Most of the change happened before 1987, and a further decrease was evident primarily in the satellite data during the 1998-2008 period. After 2008, no significant trend in Z_Sd and or the coefficient of diffuse light attenuation was detected in the Baltic Sea. However, in some sub-basins of the Baltic Sea, the decrease in Z_Sd continued even after that. The decrease in spectral water transparency in recent decades was highest in the 412 nm band, indicating an increase in the concentration of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

Even large inflows of oxygen-rich seawater to the Baltic Proper have in recent decades given only short-lived relief from oxygen deficiency below the halocline. We analyse long-term changes in oxygen deficiency, and calculate the “total oxygen debt” ΣOD, the oxygen required to oxidize the hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and ammonium (NH₄) that builds up during stagnation periods. Since the early 1990s, oxygen below 65m has gradually decreased during successive stagnation periods, and the ΣΣOD has increased, with NH₄ more important than previously recognised. After the major inflow in 2014, the Baltic Proper ΣOD has reached its highest level so far. The gradual shift of the ΣOD to shallower sub-halocline waters in the western and northern basins has increased the risk of periodic coastal hypoxia and export of hypoxic water to the Bothnian Sea. The potential for inflows large enough to more than eliminate the ΣOD seems limited in the near term.

Massive cyanobacteria blooms occur almost every summer in the Baltic Sea but the capability to quantitatively predict their extent and intensity is poorly developed. Here we analyse statistical relationships between multi-decadal satellite-derived time series of the frequency of cyanobacteria surface accumulations (FCA) in the central Baltic Sea Proper and a suite of environmental variables. Over the decadal scale (similar to 5-20 years) FCA was highly correlated (R-2 similar to 0.69) with a set of biogeochemical variables related to the amount of phosphorus and hypoxia in bottom layers. Water temperature in the surface layer was also positively correlated with FCA at the decadal scale. In contrast, the inter-annual variations in FCA had no correlation with the biogeochemical variables. Instead, significant correlations were found with the solar shortwave direct flux in July and the sea-surface temperature, also in July. It thus appears that it is not possible to predict inter-annual fluctuations in cyanobacteria blooms from water chemistry. Moreover, environmental variables could only explain about 45% of the inter-annual variability in FCA, probably because year-to-year variations in FCA are significantly influenced by biological interactions.

Nutrient concentrations in coastal waters are influenced not only by land runoff, point sources, and water exchange with the sea but are also modified by settlement to and release from sediments. This complicates evaluation of measures to reduce nutrient loads. We used a mass-balance box model to calculate long-term (1968-2015) and seasonal source contributions to phosphorus (P) concentrations and cycling in the stratified Stockholm inner archipelago (IA), Baltic Sea. A drastic reduction of sewage P loads in the early 1970s reduced sewage from the major to a minor P source. Further P load reductions in the 1990s cut the direct contribution from the sewage point sources to the annual mean surface water P concentration from 10 mu g l(-1)(25%) to < 4 mu g l(-1)(12%). The largest contributions to the surface water P concentration are now (from 1996) inflowing seawater (37%), freshwater (25%), and P recycling from sediments below 20 m depth (26%). Variations in freshwater flushing give higher P concentrations in dry years, when dilution of P inputs from sediments and sewage is small, while in wet years, these inputs are greatly diluted. Source-partitioned phosphate uptake shows that the spring bloom is fueled mainly by P of seawater and freshwater origin, while the contribution from sewage point sources is minor. Since sediment P release is mostly recycled P from the settled spring bloom, the P inputs from seawater and freshwater are now the major drivers of the IA P cycle. Recycling of P from sediments boosts surface water P concentrations in autumn and winter, affecting management target concentrations.

Population oscillations in multi-species or even single species systems are well-known but have rarely been detected at the lower trophic levels in marine systems. Nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria are a major component of the Baltic Sea ecosystem and sometimes form huge surface accumulations covering most of the sea surface. By analysing a satellite-derived 39-year (1979–2017) data archive of surface cyanobacteria concentrations we have found evidence of strikingly regular interannual oscillations in cyanobacteria concentrations in the northern Baltic Sea. These oscillations have a period of ~3 years with a high-concentration year generally followed by one or two low-concentration years. Changes in abiotic factors known to influence the growth and survival of cyanobacteria could not provide an explanation for the oscillations. We therefore assume that these oscillations are intrinsic to the marine system, caused by an unknown, probably mainly biological mechanism that may be triggered by a combination of environmental factors. Interactions between different life cycle stages of cyanobacteria as well as between predator-prey or host-parasite are possible candidates for causing the oscillations.

Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystem. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17-36 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes, such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season, in several variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000 W m(-2) of surface incoming short-wave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 degrees C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), and the period with Ked490 over 0.4 m(1) has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013 -i.e., quadrupled. The period with satellite-estimated CHL of at least 3 mg m(-3) has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now shifted to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July.

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

In the northern Baltic Sea Proper, total nitrogen (TN) increases during the summer bloom of filamentous heterocystous cyanobacteria. To follow the fate of the nitrogen they fix, we studied several N fractions during the bloom. We measured cyanobacterial biomass, TN, particulate organic N (PON, two size fractions), dissolved organic N (DON), and PON sedimentation in two areas in 2011. TN increased mainly due to increasing PON, but also to DON. Cyanobacteria contributed about 20% of the PON increase and ~ 10% of the TN increase. About half the PON changes (increase, then decrease) could be explained by the sum of cyanobacteria, other autotrophs (> 2 μm) and zooplankton, indicating that the bloom stimulates primary and secondary production. TN decreased after the bloom mainly due to declining PON > 10 μm, but sedimentation rates did not increase and could explain little of the post-bloom N-loss. There was little settling of undecomposed cyanobacteria.

The seasonal development of Aphanizomenon sp. and N pools was similar among stations and areas. For Nodularia spumigena between-station variability increased once patchy surface accumulations developed. A brief Dolichospermum spp. bloom indicated that sampling frequency may be more important than spatial resolution for capturing dynamics of this bloom.