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Kadin, M., Blenckner, T., Casini, M., Gardmark, A., Torres, M. A. & Otto, S. A. (2019). Trophic Interactions, Management Trade-Offs and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Thresholds to Operationalize Ecosystem Indicators. Frontiers in Marine Science, Article ID UNSP 249.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trophic Interactions, Management Trade-Offs and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Thresholds to Operationalize Ecosystem Indicators
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2019 (English)In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, article id UNSP 249Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is commonly applied to achieve sustainable use of marine resources. For EBM, regular ecosystem-wide assessments of changes in environmental or ecological status are essential components, as well as assessments of the effects of management measures. Assessments are typically carried out using indicators. A major challenge for the usage of indicators in EBM is trophic interactions as these may influence indicator responses. Trophic interactions can also shape trade-offs between management targets, because they modify and mediate the effects of pressures on ecosystems. Characterization of such interactions is in turn a challenge when testing the usability of indicators. Climate variability and climate change may also impact indicators directly, as well as indirectly through trophic interactions. Together, these effects may alter interpretation of indicators in assessments and evaluation of management measures. We developed indicator networks - statistical models of coupled indicators - to identify links representing trophic interactions between proposed food-web indicators, under multiple anthropogenic pressures and climate variables, using two basins in the Baltic Sea as a case study. We used the networks to simulate future indicator responses under different fishing, eutrophication and climate change scenarios. Responsiveness to fishing and eutrophication differed between indicators and across basins. Almost all indicators were highly dependent on climatic conditions, and differences in indicator trajectories > 10% were found only in comparisons of future climates. In some cases, effects of nutrient load and climate scenarios counteracted each other, altering how management measures manifested in the indicators. Incorporating climate change, or other regionally non-manageable drivers, is thus necessary for an accurate interpretation of indicators and thereby of EBM measure effects. Quantification of linkages between indicators across trophic levels is similarly a prerequisite for tracking effects propagating through the food web, and, consequently, for indicator interpretation. Developing meaningful indicators under climate change calls for iterative indicator validations, accounting for natural processes such as trophic interactions and for trade-offs between management objectives, to enable learning as well as setting target levels or thresholds triggering actions in an adaptive manner. Such flexible strategies make a set of indicators operational over the long-term and facilitate success of EBM.

Keywords
zooplankton, forage fish, networks, coupled Generalized Additive Models, Baltic Sea, Marine Strategy Framework Directive
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170030 (URN)10.3389/fmars.2019.00249 (DOI)000468339200001 ()
Available from: 2019-06-24 Created: 2019-06-24 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Otto, S. A., Kadin, M., Casini, M., Torres, M. A. & Blenckner, T. (2018). A quantitative framework for selecting and validating food web indicators. Ecological Indicators, 84, 619-631
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A quantitative framework for selecting and validating food web indicators
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2018 (English)In: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 84, p. 619-631Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Finding suitable state indicators is challenging and cumbersome in stochastic and complex ecological systems. Typically, a great focus is given to criteria such as data availability, scientific basis, or measurability. Features associated with the indicator's performance such as sensitivity or robustness are often neglected due to the lack of quantitative validation tools. In this paper, we present a simple but flexible framework for selecting and validating the performance of food web indicators. In specific, we suggest a 7-step process in which indicator performances at a regional scale are quantified and visualized allowing for the selection of complementary indicator suites. We demonstrate its application by comparing the performance of pelagic food web indicators for three basins of the Baltic Sea and by assessing the food web status based on selected indicator suites. Our analysis sheds light on spatial differences in indicator performances with respect to direct and indirect pressures, the role of non-linearity and non-additivity in pressure responses, as well as relationships between indicators caused by species interactions. Moreover, our results suggest that the present food web states in the Bornholm and Gotland basins of the Baltic Sea deviate distinctly from an earlier reference period. We advocate the use of our quantitative framework as decision-support tool for selecting suites of complementary indicators under given management schemes such as the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Keywords
Indicator-testing framework, Performance criteria, Marine strategy framework directive (MSFD), Generalized additive modelling (GAM), State space approach, Marine food web indicators, Baltic sea, Zooplankton, Pelagic fish
National Category
Biological Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-154670 (URN)10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.045 (DOI)000425828200063 ()
Available from: 2018-04-25 Created: 2018-04-25 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Torres, M. A., Casini, M., Huss, M., Otto, S. A., Kadin, M. & Gårdmark, A. (2017). Food-web indicators accounting for species interactions respond to multiple pressures. Ecological Indicators, 77, 67-79
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Food-web indicators accounting for species interactions respond to multiple pressures
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2017 (English)In: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 77, p. 67-79Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Food-web indicators for marine management are required to describe the functioning and structure of marine food-webs. In Europe, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), intended to lead to a 'good environmental status' of the marine waters, requires indicators of the status of the marine environment that also respond to manageable anthropogenic pressures. Identifying such relationships to pressures is particularly challenging for food-web indicators, as they need to be disentangled from linkages between indicators of different functional groups caused by species interactions. Still, such linkages have not been handled in the indicator development. Here we used multivariate autoregressive time series models to identify how fish indicators in an exploited food-web relate to fishing, climate and eutrophication, while accounting for the linkages between indicators caused by species interactions. We assembled 31-year long time series of indicators of key functional groups of fish in the Central Baltic Sea pelagic food-web, which is characterized by strong trophic links between cod (Gadus morhua) and its main fish prey sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus). These food-web indicators were either abundance-based indicators of key piscivores (cod) and zooplanktivores (sprat and herring) or size-based indicators of the corresponding trophic groups (biomass of large predatory fish (cod >= 38 cm) and biomass of small prey fish (sprat and herring <10 cm)). Comparative analyses of models with and without linkages among indicators showed that for both types of indicators, linkages corresponding to predator-prey feedbacks and intra-specific density-dependence were essential to explain temporal variation in the indicators. Thus, no indicator-pressure relationships could be found that explained the indicators' variation unless such linkages were accounted for. When accounting for these, we found that the indicators overall respond to multiple pressures acting simultaneously rather than to single pressures, as no pressure alone could explain how the indicators developed over time. The manageable pressures fishing and eutrophication, as well as the prevailing hydrological conditions influenced by climate, were all needed to reproduce the inter-annual changes in these food-web indicators combined, although individual relationships differed between the indicators. We conclude that our innovative indicator-testing framework can therefore be used to identify responses of food-web indicators to manageable pressures while accounting for the biotic interactions in food-webs linking such indicators.

Keywords
Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), Descriptor 4 (food-webs), Multivariate autoregressive models, MAR models, Density-dependence, Predator-prey interaction, Pelagic fish, Baltic Sea, Ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM)
National Category
Biological Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-145829 (URN)10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.01.030 (DOI)000406435800009 ()
Available from: 2017-08-28 Created: 2017-08-28 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Griffiths, J. R., Kadin, M., Nascimento, F. J. A., Tamelander, T., Törnroos, A., Bonaglia, S., . . . Winder, M. (2017). The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world. Global Change Biology, 23(6), 2179-2196
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world
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2017 (English)In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 23, no 6, p. 2179-2196Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.

Keywords
benthic, climate change, ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem function, fishing, nutrient loading, pelagic
National Category
Biological Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-143433 (URN)10.1111/gcb.13642 (DOI)000400445900005 ()28132408 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2017-06-09 Created: 2017-06-09 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Kadin, M., Olsson, O., Hentati-Sundberg, J., Willerström Ehrning, E. & Blenckner, T. (2016). Common Guillemot Uria aalge parents adjust provisioning rates to compensate for low food quality. Ibis, 158(1), 167-178
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Common Guillemot Uria aalge parents adjust provisioning rates to compensate for low food quality
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2016 (English)In: Ibis, ISSN 0019-1019, E-ISSN 1474-919X, Vol. 158, no 1, p. 167-178Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The quantity and quality of food available within the foraging area set important constraints for chick-rearing birds, but responses to low quality are not well understood. This study explored the potential for parent birds to adjust quantity (feeding rate) and quality (energy content) in chick provisioning, by studying Common Guillemots Uria aalge on Stora Karlso, Baltic Sea, predominantly utilizing Sprat Sprattus sprattus, during conditions of high food quantity but reduced food quality. Quality is central to reproductive success in this single-prey loader. From the chick's perspective, provisioning rates should be increased to compensate for low food quality and to fulfil its growing needs with increasing age. However, the high energy cost of flying in Guillemots makes it important for parent birds to minimize commutes to feeding areas. Provisioning parameters were recorded during three dawn-to-dusk watches each breeding season from 2005 to 2013, when clupeids, presumably Sprat, constituted 98% of chick diet. Generalized additive mixed models showed that both feeding rate and size of clupeids (a proxy for energy content) varied between years and changed non-linearly with chick age, but that there was no change within breeding seasons. Chick age and year explained 36% of the variation in feeding rate but only 2% of the variation in the size of clupeids in chick diets. We conclude that parent birds tried to adjust both feeding rate and prey size, but were less successful with the latter. A strong negative correlation was found between annual feeding rates and size of clupeids, evaluated as the differences relative to the baseline year, and adjusted for the effects of chick age. Although the differences between years were small, the relationship indicates a compensation mechanism that does not seem to impact adult survival, and by which increased feeding rates can partly counteract reduced chick energy intake when food quality is low.

Keywords
alcids, Common Murre, offspring provisioning, seabirds
National Category
Biological Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127289 (URN)10.1111/ibi.12335 (DOI)000368727700015 ()
Available from: 2016-06-28 Created: 2016-03-01 Last updated: 2022-02-24Bibliographically approved
Kadin, M. (2014). Seabirds as food for thought: An integrative study on seabird ecology and ecosystem services in changing marine systems. (Doctoral dissertation). Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Seabirds as food for thought: An integrative study on seabird ecology and ecosystem services in changing marine systems
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The importance of the benefits that humans obtain from the oceans is increasingly recognized, along with the rapid decline in marine resources that threatens these benefits. Studying seabirds – top predators in marine ecosystems, can provide insights about multiple pressures and the state of the oceans. The thesis links studies of seabirds through the lens of ecosystem services with an ecological case study. Paper I reviews ecosystem services, finding that seabirds contribute to provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services. Seabirds serve as mobile links in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, through regulating and supporting services. Further, scientific knowledge and indicators based on seabirds can be seen as an ecosystem service as they facilitate management. Papers II-IV proceed to build such knowledge about the importance of food quality and quantity for breeding seabirds, in particular common murres Uria aalge in the Baltic Sea. Here, there is a negative relationship between quantity (sprat Sprattus sprattus abundance) and quality (sprat weight-at-age). Quality, but not quantity, was positively related to common murre fledging success while parental foraging trips had shorter duration when quantity was higher, but showed no relationship with food quality (paper II). Paper III describes foraging behaviour of adults and found indications of good foraging conditions at sea. Parents made efforts to adjust provisioning of food according to the needs of the chicks (paper IV), but the adjustments did not seem to be enough to counteract the impact of lower food quality. Paper V explores ecosystem services obtained from seabirds over time identifying a shift from provisioning to cultural services, where current cultural services are often connected. The integration of ecosystem services with seabird ecology shows that seabirds are illustrative of changes in marine resources and provide ways to help people reconnect with the health of marine systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2014. p. 44
Keywords
seabirds, ecosystem services, social-ecological systems, marine systems, fisheries, foraging ecology, provisioning behaviour, common murre, common guillemot, Uria aalge, Stora Karlsö, Baltic Sea
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-108420 (URN)978-91-7649-035-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2014-11-28, Nordenskiöldsalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 12, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 4: Submitted. Paper 5: Manuscript.

 

Available from: 2014-11-06 Created: 2014-10-23 Last updated: 2022-02-23Bibliographically approved
Evans, T. J., Kadin, M., Olsson, O. & Åkesson, S. (2013). Foraging behaviour of common murres in the Baltic Sea, recorded by simultaneous attachment of GPS and time-depth recorder devices. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 475, 277-+
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Foraging behaviour of common murres in the Baltic Sea, recorded by simultaneous attachment of GPS and time-depth recorder devices
2013 (English)In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 475, p. 277-+Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Global positioning system and time-depth recorders were deployed in combination to investigate the foraging behaviour of common murres Uria aalge breeding at Stora Karlso Island, Baltic Sea, during the chick-rearing period. In the pre-breeding period the main prey species of murres, sprat Sprattus sprattus, is targeted by commercial fisheries, likely reducing prey availability during the breeding season. Foraging trips typically consisted of a short flight followed by a period sitting on the sea surface (0.39 +/- 0.48 h), followed by several (5.3 +/- 3.8) diving bouts interspersed by flights and water surface activity. Following the final diving bout, murres returned directly to the colony. Overnight foraging trips lasted longer than daytime trips, and that result corresponded with greater diving activity and reduced dive depths around dawn and dusk, likely times of high prey accessibility. High outward flight groundspeeds (20.0 +/- 2.8 m s(-1)) were aided by tailwinds, and lower inward flight groundspeeds (15.1 +/- 2.5 m s(-1)) were impeded by headwinds. Flights following the wind direction may reflect a strategy to reduce crosswind drift. Foraging intensity was lower than reported by most other studies of murres, suggesting more abundant or aggregated prey.

Keywords
Foraging behaviour, Diving behaviour, Uria aalge, Common murre, Wildlife telemetry, Data loggers, Baltic Sea
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Biological Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-88754 (URN)10.3354/meps10125 (DOI)000314935000021 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 621-2007-5930Swedish Research Council, 621-2010-5584Swedish Research Council, 349-2007-8690Formas
Note

AuthorCount:4;

Available from: 2013-03-26 Created: 2013-03-26 Last updated: 2022-02-24Bibliographically approved
Kadin, M., Österblom, H., Hentati-Sundberg, J. & Olsson, O. (2012). Contrasting effects of food quality and quantity on a marine top predator. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 444, 239-249
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Contrasting effects of food quality and quantity on a marine top predator
2012 (English)In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 444, p. 239-249Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Overfishing of predatory fish has contributed to an increase in forage-fish stocks. At the same time, a rising demand for forage fish to supply fishmeal markets, in combination with ­climate change, has put strong pressure on these stocks, and this, in turn, has had an impact on marine top predators. We examined how inter-annual variation in food quality (sprat Sprattus sprattus weight-at-age) and quantity (sprat abundance) influenced Baltic Sea common murres Uria aalge during chick-rearing. Fledging success, i.e. survival from hatching to fledging, showed a positive relationship with food quality, but we found no effect of food quantity. We found no relationship between food quality and parental behaviour or chick feeding parameters, but a negative relationship between food quantity and trip duration. Our data indicate that there was room for parental birds to increase their effort to compensate for reduced food quality, but we found no signs of such compensation. We analysed different types of fish and seabird life-history data to separate effects of food quantity and quality on a top predator. Understanding such effects can contribute to clarifying causes and consequences for observed changes in life-history parameters and population dynamics of top predators.

Keywords
Junk food, Trophic cascades, Ecosystem approach, Environmental change, Climate change, Alcidae, Common guillemot
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-70425 (URN)10.3354/meps09417 (DOI)000298970900017 ()
Note

4

Available from: 2012-01-20 Created: 2012-01-20 Last updated: 2022-02-24Bibliographically approved
Kadin, M. (2012). Man, murres and modern fisheries: A case study in the Baltic Sea. (Licentiate dissertation). Stockholm: Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Man, murres and modern fisheries: A case study in the Baltic Sea
2012 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Overfishing and climate change put increasing pressure on marine systems, with effects on commercially targeted fish and top predators dependent on these resources. To achieve sustainable resource use, governance mechanisms need to incorporate knowledge about ecosystem dynamics. Another key for success is the perception among actors about the challenges oceans are facing. Seabirds have become well-known symbols of coasts and oceans and their struggles with the consequences of human actions provide an illustration of the need to properly govern marine resources. Seabirds can be useful indicators of states of marine systems, forming tools that can help informing ecosystem approaches to management. The thesis focuses on the piscivorous seabird the common murre Uria aalge in the Baltic Sea, investigating two different aspects of interactions between seabirds and fisheries. In paper I, the effects of food quality and quantity during the chick-rearing period were investigated. Food quality (sprat Sprattus sprattus weight-at-age), but not quantity (sprat abundance), was positively related to murre fledging success. The adjustments of parental effort in relation to quality and quantity showed the opposite pattern – no relationships between parental effort and sprat weight-at-age but a negative relationship between sprat abundance and the duration of foraging trips. Paper II uses a long-term ring recovery dataset to study murre bycatch in Baltic Sea fisheries. We found an increase in the proportion bycatch between 1972 and 2008, and a strong bimodal intraannual pattern in bycatches, with peaks in spring and autumn, similar in three investigated periods. Uncertain finding dates were common and could potentially affect conclusions about intraannual patterns. Reported bycatches were concentrated to waters around the Hel peninsula, Poland. In recent years, 2000-2008, an increase of reported bycatch could be observed in the southeastern parts of the Baltic Sea. The findings of this thesis can aid the selection and interpretation of indicators for ecosystem approaches to Baltic Sea fisheries management, and further be used to communicate the need for such approaches.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, 2012. p. 18
Keywords
Seabirds, ecosystem dynamics, fisheries, indicators, ecosystem services, Baltic Sea, common murre, common guillemot, Uria aalge
National Category
Biological Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-68704 (URN)
Presentation
2012-01-30, Room 312, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Kräftriket 2 B, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

At the time of the defence the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper nr 2: Manuscript

Available from: 2012-11-30 Created: 2012-01-05 Last updated: 2022-02-24Bibliographically approved
Hentati-Sundberg, J., Österblom, H., Kadin, M., Jansson, Å. & Olsson, O. (2012). The Karlsö Murre Lab methodology can stimulate innovative seabird research. Marine Ornithology, 40, 11-16
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Karlsö Murre Lab methodology can stimulate innovative seabird research
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2012 (English)In: Marine Ornithology, ISSN 1018-3337, E-ISSN 2074-1235, Vol. 40, p. 11-16Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Studies of seabirds have contributed substantially to theoretical and applied ecology, but practical limitations in the field and lack of knowledge of the life history of studied birds often constitute significant hurdles to progress in research. In the middle of the largest seabird colony in the Baltic Sea, on the island of Stora Karlsö, we have built an artificial breeding site for Common Murres Uria aalge. The Karlsö Murre Lab enables high-resolution studies with minimal disturbance of the breeding birds. It became operational, with the first recruitment of breeding murres, in 2009. Building materials and location were chosen to minimize environmental impact. The lab was constructed to allow future outfitting with a range of high-technology devices. Since most of the fledged chicks in the subcolony have been ringed over the last 10 years, this will enable recruitment and studies using advanced technology of birds with known life history. Hence, we will be able to perform seabird studies with a resolution that is impossible in a strictly natural environment. Better knowledge of links between seabirds and their environment facilitates the use of seabirds as indicators, which in turn can improve marine ecosystem-based management. 

Keywords
Alcidae, Common Guillemot, Baltic Sea, life history, marine management, seabirds, technology
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-90599 (URN)
Available from: 2013-06-10 Created: 2013-06-10 Last updated: 2022-02-24Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-4706-7267

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