This paper uses administrative data from Sweden to document trends in the labor market returns to skills. Between 1992 and 2013, the economic return to noncognitive skill⁠—a psychologist-assessed measure of teamwork and leadership skill⁠—roughly doubled. The return to cognitive skill was relatively stable and decreased modestly during the 2000s, however. Among men with similar levels of education, the return to noncognitive skill is higher than the return to cognitive skill. The increasing return to noncognitive skill is driven by changes at the top of the wage distribution and by sorting into higher-paying occupations.

We examine intergenerational mobility differences between Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the US. Using ranks, we find that the US is substantially less intergenerationally mobile than the three European countries and that the most mobile region of the US is less mobile than the least mobile regions of Norway and Sweden. Using a linear estimator of income share mobility, we find that the four countries have very similar rates of intergenerational mobility. However, when we use non-parametric versions of rank and income share mobility, we find that the US tends to experience lower upward mobility at the bottom of the income distribution than Norway and Sweden.

Estimates of the most common mobility measure, the intergenerational elasticity, can be severely biased if snapshots are used to approximate lifetime income. However, little is known about biases in other popular dependence measures. Using long Swedish income series, we provide such evidence for log-linear and rank correlations, and rank-based transition probabilities. Attenuation bias is considerably weaker in rank-based measures. Life-cycle bias is strongest in the elasticity, moderate in log-linear correlations, and small in rank-based measures. However; there are important exceptions: persistence in the tails of the distribution is considerably higher and long-distance downward mobility lower than estimates from short-run income suggest.

Recently Gregory Clark and coauthors have argued that social mobility rates are constant across countries and lower than traditionally estimated, hypothesizing that prior estimates of intergenerational persistence are attenuated from focusing on a single proxy for underlying status. We test this proposition by incorporating multiple proxy measures into a least-attenuated estimate of persistence for Sweden and conducting a Sweden-United States comparison. We find no evidence of substantial bias in prior estimates or of similarity across countries. We further extend our analysis to mothers, finding that additional measures improve the ability to capture transmission from mothers to both sons and daughters.

We explore whether differences in intergenerational income mobility between the UK and Sweden show up early in life, finding stronger associations between parental income and birthweight, height and school performance in the UK. We investigate whether these differentials can account for the country difference in income mobility. While differences in the associations in birthweight and height are too weak to matter, school performance does account for a substantial part of this difference. However, country differences in the earnings returns to these skills are at least as important as the differences in the link between parental income and skills.

I use Swedish registry data to estimate lifetime earnings returns to college and how they vary with observed and unobserved characteristics. The richness of the data also allows me to examine heterogeneity with respect to cognitive and noncognitive ability and parental earnings. Local instrumental variable analysis is used to recover marginal and average treatment effects under selection on gains. The findings support the notion of self-selection, but mainly on observed characteristics. Returns vary little with parental earnings but substantially with respect to both cognitive and noncognitive ability, thus suggesting important complementarities between formal schooling and informal skills.

Using short snapshots of income in intergenerational mobility estimation causes “lifecycle bias” if the snapshots cannot mimic lifetime outcomes. We use uniquely long series of Swedish income data to show that this bias is large and to examine current strategies to reduce it. We confirm that lifecycle bias is smallest when incomes are measured around midlife, a central implication from a widely adopted generalization of the classical errors-in-variables model. However, the model cannot predict the ideal age of measurement or eliminate lifecycle bias at other ages. We illustrate how extensions of this model can reduce the bias further.