In Arctic warm-air intrusions, air masses undergo a series of radiative, turbulent, cloud, and precipitation processes, the sum of which constitutes the air mass transformation. During the Arctic air mass transformation, heat and moisture are transferred from the air mass to the Arctic environment, melting the sea ice and potentially reinforcing feedback mechanisms responsible for the amplified Arctic warming. We tackle this complex, poorly understood phenomenon from a Lagrangian perspective using the warm-air intrusion event on 12–14 March captured by the 2022 HALO-(𝒜𝒞)³ campaign. Our trajectory analysis of the event suggests that the intruding air mass can be treated as a cohesive air column, therefore justifying the use of a single-column model. In this study, we test this hypothesis using the Atmosphere–Ocean Single-Column Model (AOSCM). The rates of heat and moisture depletion vary along the advection path due to the changing surface properties and large-scale vertical motion. Cloud radiative cooling and turbulent mixing in the stably stratified boundary layer are constant sinks of heat throughout the air mass transformation. Boundary layer cooling intensifies over the marginal ice zone and forces the development of a low-level cloud underneath the advected one. As the air mass flows past the marginal ice zone, large-scale updrafts dominate the temperature and moisture changes through adiabatic cooling and condensation. The ability of the Lagrangian AOSCM framework to simulate elements of the air mass transformation seen in aircraft observations, reanalysis, and operational forecast data makes it an attractive tool for future model analysis and diagnostics development. Our findings can benefit the understanding of the timescales and driving mechanisms of Arctic air mass transformation and help determine the contribution of warm-air intrusions in Arctic amplification.

Simulation of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is challenging due to the wide range of turbulent scales in the flow. To leverage the currently available computational power for high-resolution simulation of atmospheric turbulence, fluid solvers that scale well on large compute clusters are required. We present a new large eddy simulation (LES) framework based on the open-source solver Nek5000, which uses the highly parallelizable spectral element method (SEM) for spatial discretization. We document the Nek5000 framework for LES of thermally stratified atmospheric boundary layers and present results from the solver for neutral, convective, and stably stratified boundary layers. To verify that the solver is capable of accurately representing important features of the ABL, we compare our results to an established LES solver and find very good agreement in statistics as well as coherent structures. We also compare results with two different subgrid-scale models and conclude that one based on the subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy performs better together with the SEM.

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

The Diurnal Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (DICE) aims to explore the complex interactions between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, which are generally not well understood and difficult to isolate in models. The project involves over 10 different models, combining expertise from both land-surface and atmospheric boundary-layer modelling groups. A simple three-stage methodology is designed to assess land–atmosphere feedbacks. Stage 1: the individual components are assessed in isolation, driven and evaluated against observational data; stage 2: the impact of coupling is investigated; stage 3: the sensitivity of the stand-alone models to variations in driving data is explored. For this initial study, a 3-day clear-sky period in the mid-west United States over, an assumed simple, predominantly grass surface was simulated using data from the CASES-99 field campaign. Key conclusions from the study include: (1) the memory of vegetation state within land-surface models needs attention; (2) the height of atmospheric forcing for land-surface models is important, particularly for the nocturnal boundary layer, and this has implications for both observations and vertical resolution for atmospheric models; (3) land–atmosphere feedbacks reduce errors in simulated surface fluxes at the expense of the accuracy of the variables that the models are designed to simulate (e.g., temperature, humidity, and wind speed); (4) problems remain in representing the stable boundary layer in atmospheric models; (5) the mixing of temperature and humidity within the boundary layer may need to be represented separately; (6) differences in daytime profiles of heat, moisture, and momentum between models are mainly due to the way the models erode the inversion at the top of the boundary layer, rather than differences in the surface fluxes. Resultant variations in modelled boundary-layer heights have a substantial impact on relative humidity and could partially explain variations in coupling strength between models in the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment.

PCAPS Open Session: Forecast value cycles for Polar Research Operations

What: A workshop was held as part of the annual Steering Group meeting of the WMO World Weather Research Program project “Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services” (PCAPS). The Open Session gathered about 50 Arctic and Antarctic stakeholders to share perspectives on polar forecasting challenges, operational needs, and opportunities for collaboration.

When: 15 April 2025

Where: British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Boundary layer cloud transformations at high latitudes play a key role for the Arctic climate and are partially controlled by large-scale dynamics such as subsidence. While measuring large-scale and mesoscale divergence on spatial scales on the order of 100 km has proven notoriously difficult, recent airborne campaigns in the subtropics have successfully applied measurement techniques using multiple dropsonde releases in circular flight patterns. In this paper, it is shown that this method can also be effectively applied at high latitudes, in spite of the considerable differences in atmospheric dynamics compared to the subtropics. To show the applicability, data collected during the airborne High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft–Transregional Collaborative Research Center TRR 172-Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes and Feedback Mechanisms [HALO–(AC)3] field campaign near Svalbard in spring 2022 were analyzed, where several flight patterns involving multiple dropsonde launches were realized by two aircraft. This study presents a first overview of the results. We find that the method indeed yields reliable estimates of mesoscale gradients in the Arctic, producing robust vertical profiles of horizontal divergence and, consequently, subsidence. Sensitivity to aspects of the method is investigated, including dependence on sampling area and the divergence calculation.

Arctic cyclones are key drivers of sea ice and ocean variability. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, joint observations of the coupled air-ice-ocean system were collected at multiple spatial scales. Here, we present observations of a strong mid-winter cyclone that impacted the MOSAiC site as it drifted in the central Arctic pack ice. The sea ice dynamical response showed spatial structure at the scale of the evolving and translating cyclonic wind field. Internal ice stress and ocean stress play significant roles, resulting in timing offsets between the atmospheric forcing and the ice response and post-cyclone inertial ringing in the ice and ocean. Ice motion in response to the wind field then forces the upper ocean currents through frictional drag. The strongest impacts to the sea ice and ocean from the passing cyclone occur as a result of the surface impacts of a strong atmospheric low-level jet (LLJ) behind the trailing cold front and changing wind directions between the warm-sector LLJ and post cold-frontal LLJ. Impacts of the cyclone are prolonged through the coupled ice-ocean inertial response. Local impacts of the approximately 120 km wide LLJ occur over a 12 hr period or less and at scales of a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers, meaning that these impacts occur at combined smaller spatial scales and faster time scales than most satellite observations and coupled Earth system models can resolve.

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation-model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data "on the same page"in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual.

Global warming is amplified in the Arctic. However, numerical models struggle to represent key processes that determine Arctic weather and climate. To collect data that help to constrain the models, the HALO–(AC)3 aircraft campaign was conducted over the Norwegian and Greenland seas, the Fram Strait, and the central Arctic Ocean in March and April 2022. The campaign focused on one specific challenge posed by the models, namely the reasonable representation of transformations of air masses during their meridional transport into and out of the Arctic via northward moist- and warm-air intrusions (WAIs) and southward marine cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). Observations were made over areas of open ocean, the marginal sea ice zone, and the central Arctic sea ice. Two low-flying and one long-range, high-altitude research aircraft were flown in colocated formation whenever possible. To follow the air mass transformations, a quasi-Lagrangian flight strategy using trajectory calculations was realized, enabling us to sample the same moving-air parcels twice along their trajectories. Seven distinct WAI and 12 CAO cases were probed. From the quasi-Lagrangian measurements, we have quantified the diabatic heating/cooling and moistening/drying of the transported air masses. During CAOs, maximum values of 3 K h−1 warming and 0.3 g kg−1 h−1 moistening were obtained below 1 km altitude. From the observations of WAIs, diabatic cooling rates of up to 0.4 K h−1 and a moisture loss of up to 0.1 g kg−1 h−1 from the ground to about 5.5 km altitude were derived. Furthermore, the development of cloud macrophysical (cloud-top height and horizontal cloud cover) and microphysical (liquid water path, precipitation, and ice index) properties along the southward pathways of the air masses were documented during CAOs, and the moisture budget during a specific WAI event was estimated. In addition, we discuss the statistical frequency of occurrence of the different thermodynamic phases of Arctic low-level clouds, the interaction of Arctic cirrus clouds with sea ice and water vapor, and the characteristics of microphysical and chemical properties of Arctic aerosol particles. Finally, we provide a proof of concept to measure mesoscale divergence and subsidence in the Arctic using data from dropsondes released during the flights.

Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data and by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing merged observatory data files (MODFs) and merged model data files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (NH-SOP1) in February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variability across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. It is found that many models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of the 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the surface skin temperature to variations in radiative forcing, and the reasons for this are discussed.