A data-driven screening methodology is developed for estimating nutrient input and retention-delivery in catchments with measured water discharges and nutrient concentrations along the river network. The methodology is applied to the Sava River Catchment (SRC), a major transboundary catchment in southeast Europe, with seven monitoring stations along the main river, defining seven nested catchments and seven incremental subcatchments that are analysed and compared in this study. For the relatively large nested catchments (>40,000 km(2)), characteristic regional values emerge for nutrient input per unit area of around 30 T/yr/km(2) for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and 2 T/yr/km(2) for total phosphorus (TP). For the smaller nested catchments and incremental subcatchments, corresponding values fluctuate and indicate hotspot areas with total nutrient inputs of 158 T/yr/km(2) for DIN and 13 T/yr/km(2) for TP. The delivered fraction of total nutrient input mass (termed delivery factor) and associated nutrient loads per area are scale-dependent, exhibiting power-law decay with increasing catchment area, with exponents of around 0.2-0.3 for DIN and 0.3-0.5 for TP. For the largest of the nested catchments in the SRC, the delivery factor is around 0.08 for DIN and 0.03 for TP. Overall, the nutrient data for nested catchments within the SRC show consistency with previously reported data for multiple nested catchments within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin, identifying close nutrient relationships to driving hydroclimatic conditions (runoff for nutrient loads) and socio-economic conditions (population density and farmland share for nutrient concentrations).

In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Fragmented and inconsistent understanding of the freshwater system limits our ability to achieve water security and sustainability under the human-driven changes occurring in the Anthropocene. To advance system-level understanding of freshwater, gaps and inconsistencies in knowledge, data, representations and links of processes and subsystems need to be identified and bridged under consideration of the freshwater system as a continuous whole. 

Based on such identification, a freshwater system conceptualization is developed in this report, which emphasizes four essential, yet often neglected system aspects:

i) Distinction of coastal divergent catchments.

ii) Four main zones (surface, subsurface, coastal, observation) of different types of freshwater change.

iii) Water pathways as system-coupling agents that link and partition water change among the four change zones.

iv) Direct interactions with the anthroposphere as integral system pathways across the change zones.

We explain and exemplify some key implications of these aspects, identifying in the process also distinct patterns of human-driven changes in large-scale water fluxes and nutrient loads.

The present conceptualization provides a basis for common inter- and trans-disciplinary understanding and systematic characterization of the freshwater system function and its changes, and of approaches to their modeling and monitoring. This can be viewed and used as a unifying checklist that can advance science, policy and management of freshwater and related environmental changes across various scales and world regions.