1. The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change.

2. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed.

3. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present.

4. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health.

5. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse.

6. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues.

7. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

The management and conservation of biodiversity relies on information on both the abundance of species and the potential impact of threats. Globally, one of the largest threats towards marine biodiversity is bycatch in fisheries. Under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), EU Member States are required to assess the status of species, such as the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), in relation to their abundance and mortality due to bycatch every six years. The Vulnerable (HELCOM) Belt Sea population of harbour porpoise has been surveyed to determine its abundance six times using dedicated aerial or ship-based line-transect distance sampling surveys. Here, we estimated the first trend in population abundance over an 18 year period (2005-2022). Using the most recent abundance estimate, we computed a mortality limit applying the modified Potential Biological Removal (mPBR) method based on the regionally agreed conservation objective to restore or maintain 80% of carrying capacity over 100 years with an 80% probability. Over the past 18 years there has been a strong negative trend (-2.7% p.a.; 95% CI: -4.1%; + 1.3%) in abundance, with a 90.5% probability. The mortality limit was estimated to be 24 animals, which the current bycatch estimates (similar to 900 porpoises/year from the commercial Danish and Swedish set net fishery fleets, with no data from Germany and other fishery types) exceed by far. The frequency and quality of data available on abundance for this population are higher than those available for the majority of marine species. Given the observed population decline and likely unsustainable levels of bycatch, the results presented here provide a strong basis to make informed, evidence-based management decisions for action for this population. Such action is needed urgently, before the dire situation of other porpoise species and populations around the globe is repeated.

Widespread persistent contaminants are a global environmental problem. In the Baltic Sea, wildlife contamination was first noticed in the 1960s, prompting the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to establish a comprehensive Swedish National Monitoring Programme for Contaminants in Marine Biota (MCoM) in 1978 run by the Swedish Museum of Natural History. Eight species have been analysed, four fish species (Atlantic herring, Atlantic cod, European perch, viviparous eelpout), one bivalve species (blue mussel), and egg from three bird species (common guillemot, common tern, Eurasian oystercatcher). Here, we present a dataset containing MCoM data from its start until 2021. It includes 36 sets of time-series, each analysed for more than 100 contaminants. The longest time-series is for common guillemot and starts in 1968. We describe the structure of MCoM including historic changes to the number of stations, sample treatment, analytical methods, instruments, and laboratories. The MCoM data is available at the Bolin Centre repository and on GitHub through our R package mcomDb. The latter will be updated yearly with new MCoM records.

Fish tissue levels have to comply with environmental quality standards (EQSs) within the European Water Framework Directive. However, within monitoring, contaminants are sometimes measured in a different tissue than the tissue for which the environmental (whole fish) or human (fillet (equivalent to muscle tissue)) quality standard is set. Tissue conversion factors (k), describing the relationship between concentrations in different tissues, can be used to obtain a quality standard for the appropriate tissue. Several different approaches have been suggested for the calculation of k. For monitoring purposes, we propose the use of a simple, easy reproducible approach that assumes proportionality between two tissue, or tissue and whole fish, concentrations. This allows for an easy comparison of studies and adoption of ks into independent monitoring programs. Here, we determined ks for three metals (mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd)) and nine per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) including perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) across six marine and freshwater fish species from Northern European lakes and the Baltic Sea. We found significant species differences for Hg for k_{muscle/whole fish}, for Cd and Pb for k_{liver/whole fish} and for Cd for k_liver/muscle. For perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCA), we found a chain length dependence with lowest k_liver/muscle at low and high chain lengths (C₈, C₁₃) and highest for median chain lengths (C₉-C₁₂). Further, there were differences between fish species with k_liver/muscle for PFOS almost doubling from eelpout (10.3) to herring (19.2) and increasing up to a factor 4 between eelpout and herring for other PFASs. FOSA had two distinctive groups, herring with a k_liver/muscle of 48.7 and a second group with ks of 2.3 to 5.9 for all other fish species. Our results suggest that differences in the tissue somatic index, and contaminant uptake, tissue transfer and metabolism result in the need for species-specific ks within monitoring.

Temporal and spatial trends of 15 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were determined in white-tailed sea eagle (WTSE) eggs (Haliaeetus albicilla) from two inland and two coastal regions of Sweden between 1969 and 2021. PFAS concentrations generally increased from ∼1969 to ∼1990s–2010 (depending on target and site) and thereafter plateaued or declined, with perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) declining faster than most perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs). The net result was a shift in the PFAS profile from PFOS-dominant in 1969–2010 to an increased prevalence of PFCAs over the last decade. Further, during the entire period higher PFAS concentrations were generally observed in coastal populations, possibly due to differences in diet and/or proximity to more densely populated areas. Fluorine mass balance determination in pooled samples from three of the regions (2019–2021) indicated that target PFAS accounted for the vast majority (i.e. 81–100%) of extractable organic fluorine (EOF). Nevertheless, high resolution mass-spectrometry-based suspect screening identified 55 suspects (31 at a confidence level [CL] of 1–3 and 24 at a CL of 4–5), of which 43 were substances not included in the targeted analysis. Semi-quantification of CL ≤ 2 suspects increased the identified EOF to >90% in coastal samples. In addition to showing the impact of PFAS regulation and phase-out initiatives, this study demonstrates that most extractable organofluorine in WTSE eggs is made up of known (legacy) PFAS, albeit with low levels of novel substances.

In long-term monitoring of contaminants in biota, a common approach is to use yearly geometric means of measured concentrations in sampled individuals as a basis for trend analysis. When some or all measurements in a particular year are reported as non-detects, it is unclear how to proceed in calculating the yearly mean. I argue that by casting the problem in terms of a mixed model, non-detects can be accounted for using statistical techniques for censored data. The approach is illustrated using data from the Swedish national monitoring programme for contaminants in biota.

The Baltic Proper harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) is currently listed as critically endangered (CR), with the Static Acoustic Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Harbor Porpoise (SAMBAH) project concluding that only similar to 500 individuals remain. This population has a distribution that spans the waters of nine countries, making regular abundance estimates and management action challenging. Given the continued decline of other depleted porpoises, namely the vaquita (Phocoena sinus), the question is often raised about whether management action would even have a positive impact, or whether it is too late for population recovery. When abundance estimates are sparse over time, monitoring programs at key sites are likely to serve as the best indication of population trends, and may provide an early indication of changes at the population level. We compared passive acoustic monitoring data from 12 stations that were utilized both in the SAMBAH project (2011-2013) and as a part of the Swedish National Monitoring Program (2017-2020) to determine trends in detection rates. There was a 29% increase in mean daily detection rate during May-October (over the breeding season) between the two study periods. At the three stations with the highest number of detections, log linear regression revealed a yearly increase of 2.4% between 2011 and 2019 (-4.4-9.6, 95% CI). This may be indicative of the beginnings of population recovery, or simply an indication that the decline has stalled. The rate of increase is still well below what is likely to be possible for porpoise populations, and unlikely to buffer against any potential increase in pressures in the future. We therefore call for urgent management action to remove threats and protect this CR population, the only resident cetacean in the Baltic region, in order to give it the best chance of recovery.

Climate warming is expected to destabilize permafrost carbon (PF-C) by thaw-erosion and deepening of the seasonally thawed active layer and thereby promote PF-C mineralization to CO2 and CH4. A similar PF-C remobilization might have contributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 during deglacial warming after the last glacial maximum. Using carbon isotopes and terrestrial biomarkers (Delta C-14, delta C-13, and lignin phenols), this study quantifies deposition of terrestrial carbon originating from permafrost in sediments from the Chukchi Sea (core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1). The sediment core reconstructs remobilization of permafrost carbon during the late Allerod warm period starting at 13,000 cal years before present (BP), the Younger Dryas, and the early Holocene warming until 11,000 cal years BP and compares this period with the late Holocene, from 3,650 years BP until present. Dual-carbon-isotope-based source apportionment demonstrates that Ice Complex Deposit-ice- and carbon-rich permafrost from the late Pleistocene (also referred to as Yedoma)-was the dominant source of organic carbon (66 +/- 8%; mean +/- standard deviation) to sediments during the end of the deglaciation, with fluxes more than twice as high (8.0 +/- 4.6 g.m(-2).year(-1)) as in the late Holocene (3.1 +/- 1.0 g.m(-2).year(-1)). These results are consistent with late deglacial PF-C remobilization observed in a Laptev Sea record, yet in contrast with PF-C sources, which at that location were dominated by active layer material from the Lena River watershed. Release of dormant PF-C from erosion of coastal permafrost during the end of the last deglaciation indicates vulnerability of Ice Complex Deposit in response to future warming and sea level changes.

Relatively little is known about the amount of time that lapses between the photosynthetic fixation of carbon by vascular land plants and its incorporation into the marine sedimentary record, yet the dynamics of terrestrial carbon sequestration have important implications for the carbon cycle. Vascular plant carbon may encounter multiple potential intermediate storage pools and transport trajectories, and the age of vascular plant carbon accumulating in marine sediments will reflect these different pre-depositional histories. Here, we examine down-core C-14 profiles of higher plant leaf wax-derived fatty acids isolated from high fidelity sedimentary sequences spanning the so-called bomb-spike, and encompassing a ca. 60-degree latitudinal gradient from tropical (Cariaco Basin), temperate (Saanich Inlet), and polar (Mackenzie Delta) watersheds to constrain integrated vascular plant carbon storage/transport times (residence times). Using a modeling framework, we find that, in addition to a young (conditionally defined as < 50 y) carbon pool, an old pool of compounds comprises 49 to 78 % of the fractional contribution of organic carbon (OC) and exhibits variable ages reflective of the environmental setting. For the Mackenzie Delta sediments, we find a mean age of the old pool of 28 ky (+/- 9.4, standard deviation), indicating extensive pre-aging in permafrost soils, whereas the old pools in Saanich Inlet and Cariaco Basin sediments are younger, 7.9 (+/- 5.0) and 2.4 (+/- 0.50) to 3.2 (+/- 0.54) ky, respectively, indicating less protracted storage in terrestrial reservoirs. The young pool showed clear annual contributions for Saanich Inlet and Mackenzie Delta sediments (comprising 24% and 16% of this pool, respectively), likely reflecting episodic transport of OC from steep hillside slopes surrounding Saanich Inlet and annual spring flood deposition in the Mackenzie Delta, respectively. Contributions of 5-10 year old OC to the Cariaco Basin show a short delay of OC inflow, potentially related to transport time to the offshore basin. Modeling results also indicate that the Mackenzie Delta has an influx of young but decadal material (20-30 years of age), pointing to the presence of an intermediate reservoir. Overall, these results show that a significant fraction of vascular plant C undergoes pre-aging in terrestrial reservoirs prior to accumulation in deltaic and marine sediments. The age distribution, reflecting both storage and transport times, likely depends on landscape-specific factors such as local topography, hydrographic characteristics, and mean annual temperature of the catchment, all of which affect the degree of soil buildup and preservation. We show that catchment-specific carbon residence times across landscapes can vary by an order of magnitude, with important implications both for carbon cycle studies and for the interpretation of molecular terrestrial paleoclimate records preserved in sedimentary sequences.

Time-series models applied in the study of animal population dynamics commonly assume linearity on the log-scale, leading to log-normally distributed rates of increase. While this is often computationally convenient, in particular when performing statistical inference in the presence of observation error, it may lead to unrealistic predictions for animals with a limited reproduction. We introduce a model that includes an explicit bound on the reproductive rate of an individual, and apply this to a population time series of ungulates in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Due to observational error, the year-to-year increases in animal counts occasionally exceeded the maximal reproductive rate of the animals. In such cases, the traditional unbounded model showed a tendency of overfitting data, leading to unrealistic predictions of the underlying population increase. An observed increase above the maximal reproductive rate also provides empirical confirmation that observation error exists. The model with an explicit bound was able to utilize this in order to separate observational error from population process noise, which the traditional unbounded model was unable to do. We conclude that enforcing a strict upper bound on the reproductive rate of an animal population model may lead to more realistic statistical inference than commonly applied log-linear models when an explicit bound on reproductive rate is known. We further conclude that introducing a bound on reproduction can greatly assist in separating observational error and population process noise for slow life histories, or more generally, when the rate of sampling is high compared to reproductive rates.