This paper studies the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago (2.5 ka), a period of rapid transitions across the European landscape. One global climate model was used to force two regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs used two land cover descriptions. The first was from a dynamical vegetation model representing potential land cover, and the second was from a land cover description reconstructed from pollen data by statistical interpolation. The two different land covers enable us to study the impact of land cover on climate conditions. Since the difference in landscape openness between potential and reconstructed land cover is mostly due to LULCC, this can be taken as a measure of early anthropogenic effects on climate. Since the sensitivity to LULCC is dependent on the choice of climate model, we also use two RCMs. The results show that the simulated 2.5 ka climate was warmer than the simulated pre-industrial (PI, 1850 CE) climate. The largest differences are seen in northern Europe, where the 2.5 ka climate is 2-4 degrees C warmer than the PI period. In summer, the difference between the simulated 2.5 ka and PI climates is smaller (0-3 degrees C), with the smallest differences in southern Europe. Differences in seasonal precipitation are mostly within +/- 10 %. In parts of northern Europe, the 2.5 ka climate is up to 30% wetter in winter than that of the PI climate. In summer there is a tendency for the 2.5 ka climate to be drier than the PI climate in the Mediterranean region. The results also suggest that LULCC at 2.5 ka impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Simulations including reconstructed LULCC (i.e. those using pollen-derived land cover descriptions) give up to 1 degrees C higher temperature in parts of northern Europe in winter and up to 1.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer than simulations with potential land cover. Although the results are model dependent, the relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic land cover changes that had occurred during the Neolithic and Bronze Age could have affected the European climate by 2.5 ka.

Background: The evidence linking ambient air pollution to bladder cancer is limited and mixed.

Methods: We assessed the associations of bladder cancer incidence with residential exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O₃) and eight PM_2.5 elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) in a pooled cohort (N = 302,493). Exposures were primarily assessed based on 2010 measurements and back-extrapolated to the baseline years. We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level potential confounders.

Results: During an average of 18.2 years follow-up, 967 bladder cancer cases occurred. We observed a positive though statistically non-significant association between PM2.5 and bladder cancer incidence. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93–1.27) per 5 µg/m³ for 2010 exposure and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.99–1.14) for baseline exposure. Effect estimates for NO₂, BC and O₃ were close to unity. A positive association was observed with PM_2.5 zinc (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00–1.16 per 10 ng/m³).

Conclusions: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term PM_2.5 mass exposure and bladder cancer, strengthening the evidence from the few previous studies. The association with zinc in PM_2.5 suggests the importance of industrial emissions.

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) northern boundary is a critical indicator of EASM variations. Movement of the boundary is modulated by both the EASM and the mid-latitude westerlies. Here, we use the Earth system model EC-Earth to quantify the contribution of orbital forcing and vegetation feedbacks in modulating the movement of EASM northern boundary. The results show that the simulated EASM northern boundary during the mid-Holocene shifts by a maximum of similar to 213 km northwestward due to orbital forcing. When the model was coupled with a dynamic vegetation module LPJ-GUESS, the northern boundary shifts further northwestward by a maximum of similar to 90 km, indicating the importance of vegetation feedbacks. During the mid-Holocene, temperature increased in the mid-latitude during the boreal summer due to insolation, leading to increased meridional air temperature differences (MTDs) over the region north of 45 degrees N and to decreased MTDs to the south. The changes in the temperature gradient weakened the East Asian Westly Jet (EAWJ) and displaced it northward, resulting in an earlier transition of the Meiyu stage and a more prolonged Midsummer stage. The northward movement of EAWJ, combined with the enhanced southerly moisture flow from South China, caused more precipitation in North China and eventually to a northwestward shift of the northern boundary of the EASM. The coupled dynamic vegetation module LPJ-GUESS simulated more grassland and less forest over Northeast Asia during the mid-Holocene. The increased surface albedo tended to lower the temperature in the region, and further enhanced the MTDs in mid-latitude East Asia, leading to the further northward movement of the EAWJ and a northwestward shift of the EASM northern boundary. Although the simulated vegetation distribution in several regions may be not accurate, it reflects the substantial contribution of climate-vegetation interaction on modulating the EASM.

As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past Earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the mid-Pliocene (similar to 3 Ma), the last interglacial (similar to 129-116 ka) and the mid-Holocene (similar to 6 ka). The simulations for these past warm periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the last interglacial and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large-scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons and the climate variability modes - El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in past three warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with the EC-Earth model.