The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO₂ sink of 3.7 GtCO₂e yr⁻¹ over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.

With over 14 million hectares allocated, Vietnam's forest and forestland allocation has been one of the largest natural resource decentralization programs in the developing world over the last three decades. Given this remarkable achievement, critics are concerned about the low rates of household tree planting investment and question the roles and effects of land institutions on investment. Using nested logit and ordered probit models, this study examined the effects of household perceptions of forestland tenure security on tree investment and the causal effects among 239 households in 11 communes in the Central Highlands. The findings suggested that, given the land titling in hand, household perceptions of potential land expropriation in the next five years did not thwart investments in both short-term acacia and long-term cashew horizons. The number of laborers, cost of plantations, off-farm and agricultural incomes, migrant status, soil condition, plot location, government subsidies, and a positive market outlook all played a significant role in this investment. Interestingly, we found that short-term tree planting had the reverse impact on decreasing land users' perceptions of land tenure security, possibly because each tree rotation shortens the 50-year land use period recorded in the Land Use Right Certificate. However, market prospects and government subsidies may significantly counteract the negative perception of LTS and encourage households to plant trees. The policy implication is that, in addition to strengthening LTS to ensure households' current and future land use rights, tree investment-incentivized policies should be implemented.

In the EU, including Sweden, organic farming is seen as a promising pathway for sustainable production, protecting human health and animal welfare, and conserving the environment. Despite positive developments in recent decades, expanding organic farming to the Swedish national target of 30% of farmland under organic production remains challenging. In this study, we developed two scenarios to evaluate the role of organic farming in the broader context of Swedish food systems: (i) baseline trend scenario (Base), and (ii) sustainable food system scenario (Sust). Base describes a future where organic farming is implemented alongside the current consumption, production and waste patterns, while Sust describes a future where organic farming is implemented alongside a range of sustainable food system initiatives. These scenarios are coupled with several variants of organic area: (i) current 20% organic area, (ii) the national target of 30% organic area by 2030, and (iii) 50% organic area by 2050 for Sust. We applied the ‘FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use and Energy) Calculator’ to assess the evolution of the Swedish food system from 2000 to 2050 and evaluate land use, emissions and self-sufficiency impacts under these scenarios. Our findings show that expanding organic farming in the Base scenarios increases the use of cropland and agricultural emissions by 2050 compared to the 2010 reference year. However, cropland use and emissions are reduced in the Sust scenario, due to dietary changes, reduction of food waste and improved agricultural productivity. This implies that there is room for organic farming and the benefits it provides, e.g. the use of fewer inputs and improved animal welfare in a sustainable food system. However, changing towards organic agriculture is only of advantage when combined with transformative strategies to promote environmental sustainability across multiple sections, such as changed consumption, better production and food waste practices.

Feed importers in some EU member states face constraints on imports of genetically modified (GM) soy, a practice that may compromise the interests of EU livestock farmers. Using the cases of Sweden and Austria, we analyzed price transmission in the soy supply chain originating from Brazil, applying an asymmetric non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to identify short-run and long-run asymmetries. The results revealed significant asymmetric effects in how positive and negative price changes are absorbed within the feed industry. Notably, increases in the cost of Brazilian soy swiftly affect the prices for EU farmers, while cost reductions fail to trigger corresponding price decreases. Consequently, stronger constraints on GM soy imports are likely to exacerbate the competitiveness challenges faced by livestock farmers, primarily due to their reliance on non-GM soy. This implies that the restrictions on GM imports need to be relaxed or that low-cost local protein alternatives need to be developed.

We estimate a risk-based programming, individual farm model and apply it to study the wealth effects of crop-related, decoupled direct payments under the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy. The model expands on previous work on estimating risk-based programming models by applying a robust Bayesian econometric framework. The results indicate that the wealth effect varies greatly between individual farms, but that its impact on aggregate crop production is small. For larger farms, in particular, removing the decoupled payments, while keeping total land constant, increases the diversity of the cropping plan.