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Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
Number of Authors: 12024 (English)In: Economic Modelling, ISSN 0264-9993, E-ISSN 1873-6122, Vol. 132, article id 106641Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The natural rate of interest is a key benchmark steady-state rate of return that is used by central banks to measure the stance of monetary policy. Asset managers rely on estimates of the natural rate to make long-term investment decisions for their clients. This paper outlines a number of important econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest from a widely used structural model. Using a simulation experiment as well as empirical data for the U.S., I show that one of the key parameters of the structural model is overestimated and leads to a spuriously amplified downward trend in the natural rate. The paper shows how the overestimation can be remedied and provides alternative estimates of the natural rate. Various other issues are discussed that policy makers should be aware of when utilizing this model’s natural rate estimates for policy decision.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 132, article id 106641
Keywords [en]
Natural rate of interest, Median Unbiased Estimation, Kalman Filter, Spurious relations, Misspecified econometric models
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227436DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106641ISI: 001157261100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85181955403OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-227436DiVA, id: diva2:1844136
Available from: 2024-03-13 Created: 2024-03-13 Last updated: 2024-04-29Bibliographically approved

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Buncic, Daniel

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