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Predicting critical transitions in multiscale dynamical systems using reservoir computing
Stockholms universitet, Nordiska institutet för teoretisk fysik (Nordita).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4649-673X
Stockholms universitet, Nordiska institutet för teoretisk fysik (Nordita).
Stockholms universitet, Nordiska institutet för teoretisk fysik (Nordita). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Matematiska institutionen.
Stockholms universitet, Nordiska institutet för teoretisk fysik (Nordita). Yale University, USA.
Rekke forfattare: 42020 (engelsk)Inngår i: Chaos, ISSN 1054-1500, E-ISSN 1089-7682, Vol. 30, nr 12, artikkel-id 123126Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow–fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and induces critical transitions. By taking advantage of recent advances in reservoir computing, we present a data-driven method to predict the future evolution of the state. We show that our method is capable of predicting a critical transition event at least several numerical time steps in advance. We demonstrate the success as well as the limitations of our method using numerical experiments on three examples of systems, ranging from low dimensional to high dimensional. We discuss the mathematical and broader implications of our results.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2020. Vol. 30, nr 12, artikkel-id 123126
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-190329DOI: 10.1063/5.0023764ISI: 000600201700001PubMedID: 33380032OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-190329DiVA, id: diva2:1528792
Tilgjengelig fra: 2021-02-16 Laget: 2021-02-16 Sist oppdatert: 2023-10-04bibliografisk kontrollert
Inngår i avhandling
1. A Serendipitous Journey through Stochastic Processes
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>A Serendipitous Journey through Stochastic Processes
2023 (engelsk)Doktoravhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

In this PhD thesis we will present some new insights in different problems in the field of stochastic processes. A stochastic resonance system is studied using path integral techniques, originally developed in quantum field theory, to recover the optimal means through which noise self-organises before a rare transition from one potential well to the other. These results allow one to determine precursors to a rare events in such system.We then study the survival probability of an autonomous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process using the asymptotic matching techniques developed in fluid dynamics. Here, we obtain a simple analytical expression for this quantity that exhibits a good agreement with numerical determination.Next, rare events in similar systems are studied using a recurrent neural network to model the noisy part of the signal. The neural network facilitates the prediction of future noise realisations and hence rare transitions.Using a combination of analytical and numerical techniques a low-dimensional model is constructed and it is able to predict and to reproduce the main dynamical and equilibrium features of the El Ni\~no and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest inter-annual variability phenomenon in the tropical Pacific which has a global impact on climate.Using the results obtained for the survival probability of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, an approximate analytical solution for the probability density function and the response is derived for a stochastic resonance system in the non-adiabatic limit.Finally, the Landauer principle is applied to investigate the thermodynamics of finite time information erasure, using a model of a Brownian particle in a symmetric double-well potential. Analytical tools are derived to calculate the distribution of the work required to erase information through an arbitrary continuous erasure protocol, and the theoretical findings are numerically validated.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: Department of Physics, Stockholm University, 2023. s. 30
Emneord
Stochastic process, statistical physics, machine learning
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
teoretisk fysik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-221832 (URN)978-91-8014-516-9 (ISBN)978-91-8014-517-6 (ISBN)
Disputas
2023-11-17, Auditorium 3, House 2, Albano, Albanovägen 18, Stockholm, 15:00 (engelsk)
Opponent
Veileder
Tilgjengelig fra: 2023-10-25 Laget: 2023-10-04 Sist oppdatert: 2023-10-19bibliografisk kontrollert

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Lim, Soon HoeGiorgini, Ludovico TheoMoon, WoosokWettlaufer, John S.

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