Turkey threatens to continue blocking Sweden’s application to join NATO unless the Scandinavian country gets tough on terrorism (i.e., crack down on Kurdish groups operating in the country) and stops Koran burnings. Given Sweden’s robust freedom of speech protections, there is little more Stockholm can do but to continue implementing the deal with Ankara negotiated last June. That can take time and is not guaranteed to convince President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to soften his position on NATO enlargement, especially in an election year. Finland is now preparing legislation that would allow it to join NATO on its own, essentially leaving up to Turkey and Hungary whether to treat the Swedish and Finnish applications together or not.While mindful of not interfering in the next Turkish elections, the United States and other allies should work with Ankara to provide incentives to ratify enlargement to Sweden and disincentives to act in ways that benefit Russia. Earthquake relief should be generous and unconditional.
Published March 8, 2023.