BACKGROUND Iceland is one of the most gender-equal countries in the world, but one that does not seem to have experienced the same fertility fluctuations as most other countries, following the enhanced role of women in society. OBJECTIVE In this study we examine the childbearing trends in Iceland during 1982-2013 by analysing the progressions to parities one, two, and three. We also investigate whether there is evidence of gender preferences for children among Icelandic parents. METHODS Official individual longitudinal register data is used, covering the total female population born in Iceland between 1941 and 1997. The data is analysed by means of event history analysis. RESULTS We find evidence of tendencies to postpone motherhood during the period, with increases in fertility for women in their 30s and 40s. The propensity to have a second and a third child has not declined; on the contrary, these birth intensities have increased since the mid-1980s. Estimates suggest that Icelandic parents prefer to have daughters. CONCLUSIONS During a period of increased educational attainment and postponed family formation, the resilience of Icelandic fertility is intriguing. CONTRIBUTION The study provides the first comprehensive overview of fertility trends in Iceland.

Background: In the early 2000s, Iceland implemented one of the most gender-equal parental leave systems in the world, and at the same time increased the volume of public childcare. A few years later, in 2008, Iceland experienced a major economic crises that, among other things, lead to cutbacks in governmental spending and decreased support to families with children.

Objective: The objective of this study is to provide insight into recent childbearing dynamics in Iceland and how they may be linked to recent social-policy reforms and the intervention of the economic crisis in 2008.

Methods: We use official individual longitudinal register data covering the total female population born in Iceland between 1953 and 1997. We analyse the data by means of event history techniques.

Results: We find that changes in the standardized birth rates coincide with the emergence of the reformed family-policy package: A declining trend in the age-standardized first-birth rate came to a halt, and the propensity to have a second and a third child increased. After the onset of the crisis, a trend of decreasing first-birth intensities reemerged and, in 2011, a turnaround to declining second- and third-birth rates.

Conclusions: The development in the post-2008 period indicates that even in the most gender-equal settings, the gender balance in family care is still vulnerable, and that family policies cannot compensate in full for the impact of economic crisis on fertility.

Contribution: The study highlights the interdependency of factors related to both social policy and the business cycle in relation to childbearing developments.

Nowhere in Europe is extramarital childbearing more pervasive than in Iceland. Roughly, 70% of children born in 2018 were conceived outside of marriage, thereof 83% of firstborn, which, on the surface, puts Iceland at the vanguard of a development often associated with a second demographic transition. In this study, we investigate the union formation behaviour of Icelandic women during a period of 20 years (1994–2013) with the objectives of gaining insight into the interplay of childbearing, registered cohabitation, and marriage and to enhance our understanding of the function of registered cohabitation in the family-building process. We use administrative population register data, covering the childbearing and marital history of the total female population born in Iceland during 1962–1997. The data are analysed by means of event history techniques and presented as annual indices of first-registered cohabitation and first-marriage formation, respectively. We find indications of forceful postponement of registering cohabitation over time, but a stable portion of around 80% of women registered cohabitation before any first marriage or age 46. Around 70% of women married before age 46, and the standardized marriage rates remained relatively stable during most of our study period. Our findings suggest that within a context such as the Icelandic one, most people tend to marry, regardless of the prevalence of cohabitation. We propose that registered cohabitation should be seen as providing a semi-regulated union status for prospective parents in relation to childbearing. Marriage on the other hand could be seen as providing an elevated union status to couples.

Research findings usually suggest that premarital cohabitation is associated with increased risk of marital dissolution. In Iceland, cohabitation has been semi-formalized and if people register cohabitation they acquire certain rights and undertake some obligations. Using data on register cohabitation thus enables us to investigate the proposed association from a somewhat different perspective. The data allow us to focus on couples that intend to live together while weeding out couples that merely “drift” into coresidential unions. We use administrative population register data in our calculations covering all women born in Iceland during 1962–2013, their childbearing and union histories. We analyse the data by means of event history techniques and present the results as relative risks of union dissolution. Our estimates indicate that premarital registered cohabitation in Iceland is associated with lower risk of marital break-ups, and that this finding is quite robust. We do not detect any changes in the relationship during the study period (1995–2013). We interpret the Icelandic-specific findings in support of a trial marriage hypothesis, suggesting that semi-formalized cohabitation results in lower risks of divorce.