Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>2020 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]
Many processes evolve over time and statistical models need to be adaptive to change. This thesis proposes flexible models and statistical methods for inference about a data generating process that varies over time. The models considered are quite general dynamic predictive models with parameters linked to a set of covariates via link functions. The dynamics can arise from time-varying regression coefficients and from changes in the link function over time. The covariates can be time-varying and may also have incomplete information.
An efficient Bayesian inference methodology is developed for analyzing the posterior of dynamic regression models sequentially, with a particular focus on online learning and real-time prediction. The core inferential algorithm belongs to a family of sequential Monte Carlo methods commonly known as particle filters, and a key contribution is the development of a tailored proposal distribution. The algorithm is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and is also extended to mixture-of-experts models.
The performance of the inference methodology is assessed through various simulation experiments and real data from clinical and social-demographic studies, as well as from an industrial software development project.
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, 2020
Nyckelord
Bayesian sequential inference, Dynamic regression models, Particle filter, Online prediction, Particle smoothing, Linear Bayes
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap
Forskningsämne
statistik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186121 (URN)978-91-7911-336-0 (ISBN)978-91-7911-337-7 (ISBN)
Disputation
2020-12-11, hörsal 6, hus C, Universitetsvägen 10 C, and digitally via Zoom. A link will be published at https://www.statistics.su.se/, Stockholm, 10:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
2020-11-182020-10-252022-02-25Bibliografiskt granskad