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Climate Model Code Genealogy and Its Relation to Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Bolincentret för klimatforskning (tills m KTH & SMHI).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-0910-8646
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Bolincentret för klimatforskning (tills m KTH & SMHI).ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4867-4007
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Bolincentret för klimatforskning (tills m KTH & SMHI).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-5830-7684
Antal upphovsmän: 32023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 15, nr 7, artikel-id e2022MS003588Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) are developed by a large number of modeling groups globally. They use a wide range of representations of physical processes, allowing for structural (code) uncertainty to be partially quantified with multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Many models in the MMEs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have a common development history due to sharing of code and schemes. This makes their projections statistically dependent and introduces biases in MME statistics. Previous research has focused on model output and code dependence, and model code genealogy of CMIP models has not been fully analyzed. We present a full reconstruction of CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 code genealogy of 167 atmospheric models, GCMs, and ESMs (of which 114 participated in CMIP) based on the available literature, with a focus on the atmospheric component and atmospheric physics. We identify 12 main model families. We propose family and ancestry weighting methods designed to reduce the effect of model structural dependence in MMEs. We analyze weighted effective climate sensitivity (ECS), climate feedbacks, forcing, and global mean near-surface air temperature, and how they differ by model family. Models in the same family often have similar climate properties. We show that weighting can partially reconcile differences in ECS and cloud feedbacks between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results can help in understanding structural dependence between CMIP models, and the proposed ancestry and family weighting methods can be used in MME assessments to ameliorate model structural sampling biases.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2023. Vol. 15, nr 7, artikel-id e2022MS003588
Nyckelord [en]
climate models, model genealogy, equilibrium climate sensitivity, climate feedbacks, CMIP, code
Nationell ämneskategori
Klimatvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-220902DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003588ISI: 001028909600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85165466494OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-220902DiVA, id: diva2:1798140
Tillgänglig från: 2023-09-18 Skapad: 2023-09-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-02-07Bibliografiskt granskad

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Kuma, PeterBender, Frida A.-M.Jönsson, Aiden R.

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Kuma, PeterBender, Frida A.-M.Jönsson, Aiden R.
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Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)Bolincentret för klimatforskning (tills m KTH & SMHI)
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