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Future Hydroclimatic Impacts on Africa: Beyond the Paris Agreement
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7335-5679
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8988-2983
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6769-0136
Number of Authors: 42019 (English)In: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 7, no 7, p. 748-761Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Projections of global warming in Africa are generally associated with increasing aridity and decreasing water availability. However, most freshwater assessments focus on single hydroclimatic indicators (e.g., runoff, precipitation, or aridity), lacking analysis on combined changes in evaporative demand, and water availability on land. There remains a high degree of uncertainty over water implications at the basin scale, in particular for the most water-consuming sector-food production. Using the Budyko framework, we perform an assessment of future hydroclimatic change for the 50 largest African basins, finding a consistent pattern of change in four distinct regions across the two main emission scenarios corresponding to the Paris Agreement, and the business as usual. Although the Paris Agreement is likely to lead to less intense changes when compared to the business as usual, both scenarios show the same pattern of hydroclimatic shifts, suggesting a potential roadmap for hydroclimatic adaptation. We discuss the social-ecological implications of the projected hydroclimatic shifts in the four regions and argue that climate policies need to be complemented by soil and water conservation practices to make the best use of future water resources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 7, no 7, p. 748-761
Keywords [en]
hydroclimate, Africa, water resources, Budyko, Paris Agreement, climate change
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-173049DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001169ISI: 000479280100005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-173049DiVA, id: diva2:1355177
Available from: 2019-09-27 Created: 2019-09-27 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Sustainable Land and Water Management for a Greener Future: Large-scale insights in support of Agroecological Intensification
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sustainable Land and Water Management for a Greener Future: Large-scale insights in support of Agroecological Intensification
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The challenge of producing more food in times of climate change, degraded land and scares water resources is calling for a radical transformation of agriculture. Sustainable agricultural intensification is the process of increasing the productivity of farms while preserving functional ecosystems. A range of sustainable land and water management (SLWM) practices and approaches to sustainable intensification have been successfully implemented at the local scale during the last decades, but adoption rate remains low due to a variety of barriers and lack of effective approaches from authorities at larger scales (national to global). Despite the wealth of local successes, promoting and realizing the widespread uptake of SLWM requires large scale understanding of the potential and challenges of adoption of SLWM, which is currently lacking. This thesis bridges outcomes of successful implementation of SLWM from local cases to large scale social-ecological patterns, showing where and what is the potential of SLWM to contribute to sustainable agricultural intensification and the barriers to achieve it. The methodological approach and the results presented in this thesis aim at providing insights to improve current assessments of sustainable intensification of agriculture and practical guidance to planning, policy making and funding interventions to promote the widespread adoption of SLWM.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2020. p. 37
National Category
Environmental Sciences Agricultural Science Climate Science
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-185721 (URN)978-91-7911-310-0 (ISBN)978-91-7911-311-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-11-20, rum 306, hus 2 B, Roslagsvägen 101, Kräftriket, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-10-27 Created: 2020-10-05 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Piemontese, LuigiFetzer, IngoRockström, JohanJaramillo, Fernando

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