Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 292020 (English)In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 16, no 6, p. 2325-2341Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90 degrees N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 degrees C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to -10.4 x 10(6) km(2), with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 10 6 km(2), which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice-free conditions (<= 1 x 10(6) km(2)) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 16, no 6, p. 2325-2341
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-189352DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020ISI: 000593008400001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-189352DiVA, id: diva2:1520690
Available from: 2021-01-21 Created: 2021-01-21 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

de Nooijer, WesleyZhang, QiongLi, QiangNisancioglu, Kerim H.Stepanek, ChristianBrierley, Chris M.

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
de Nooijer, WesleyZhang, QiongLi, QiangNisancioglu, Kerim H.Stepanek, ChristianBrierley, Chris M.
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Climate of the Past
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 111 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf